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Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts.

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Obviously, the biggest winner of 2009 was Troy Tulowitzki, who used a .344/.421/.622 second half to rise to the top third of the rankings. With only a 64% success rate on steals, and a speed score (6.6) that was far and away the best of his career, however, owners should probably not expect another 30/20 season next year and he may be overvalued despite his good power.

Sitting just below him is perhaps the biggest dropper of the year at the position, Jimmy Rollins. A career-low in BABIP (.253) suggests the batting average should bounce back. On the other hand, a six-year low in speed score (6.8) could be the harbinger of a decline in the 31-year-old. He still was successful on almost 80% of his stolen base attempts and still hits enough fly balls to muscle those home runs out. Rollins should be the value in that second tier next year.

The third tier is an interesting mix of the rejuvenated old (Derek Jeter) and the surprising young (Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett). Jeter has done this all before, but fantasy owners know that he’s not dependable when it comes to the counting stats you need in fantasy. At that point in the draft, it may be worth waiting a round or two and taking a shot that one of the young guys repeats his season. Personal opinion significantly determines how you organize this tier.

The next tier contains two men that disappointed this year, but given the fact that Alexei Ramirez is 29, it’s probably the slightly younger (26) Stephen Drew that should be picked ahead of him. Given Drew’s incredible oscillating OPS, next year may yet be a good year for him. Elvis Andrus is the upside play in the tier but he’ll cost the most, too.

The last tier is only for those determined not to reach for positional scarcity. It is not recommended for those in standard mixed leagues, even if Yunel Escobar shows some signs of developing mediocre power (fly balls increasing to 30% and HR/FB increasing to 10% in 2009).

In December of 2004, the Oakland Athletics broke up “The Big Three.” The venerated trio of Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito dissolved in short order, with Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals and Hudson swapped to Atlanta just two days later.

The Mulder deal has surpassed GM Billy Beane’s wildest expectations. While Mulder topped 200 frames in his first season in St. Louis, a myriad of shoulder injuries and surgeries have all but ended the left-hander’s career.

Meanwhile, the A’s got three superb seasons from Dan Haren, who averaged 4.3 Wins Above Replacement from 2005-2007.

Oakland then flipped Haren to the Diamondbacks for a prospect bounty including rookie stud Brett Anderson (3.8 WAR in 2009), top slugging prospect Chris Carter (.241 ISO between AA and AAA), outfielder Aaron Cunningham and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Gonzalez was traded to the Rockies as part of the Holliday deal, and then Holliday was bartered to St. Louis for a package including 3B?/1B?/DH? Brett Wallace.

Suffice it to say, that original Mulder trade has borne much fruit for the A’s. It might seem crazy now, given how wildly successful Haren has become, but the top young player acquired in that trade was supposed to be Daric Barton.

The 28th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Barton began his career as a catcher before shedding the tools of ignorance for good in 2005. But from the get go, the lefty batter displayed a plate approach well beyond his years.

Daric established himself as an on-base fiend, posting a .294/.420/.424 line in rookie ball in 2003. He followed that up with a whopping .313/.445/.511 triple-slash as an 18 year-old in the Low-A Midwest League in 2004.

Baseball America ranked Barton as the second-base prospect in the A’s system prior to the 2005 season. BA gushed that “while Dan Haren and even Kiko Calero will pay more immediate dividends, many consider Barton to be the real prize Oakland received in the Mark Mulder trade with Oakland.”

Though Daric ultimately couldn’t remain behind the dish (he caught one game in ’05), he did nothing to dispel the notion that his bat would make him a building block for the A’s. With High-A Stockton of the California League, Barton batted .318/.438/.469 in 361 PA.

Considering the hitter-friendly nature of the Cal League, Barton’s .151 Isolated Power was pretty mild. But for a teenager to garner far more free passes than punch outs (17.2 BB%, 13.6 K%) is pretty special.

Bumped up to the AA Texas League for the second half of the ’05 season, Barton didn’t skip a beat. He hit .316/.410/.491 in 249 PA, owning the strike zone by walking in 14.1% of his PA and whiffing 12 percent. Barton even put a charge in the ball more often, with his ISO rising to .175.

Barton was a prospect darling by this point, topping the A’s farm system while also getting a place on the personal top 50 prospects lists of Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Will Lingo, John Manuel and Allan Simpson. BA called Daric’s pitch recognition “off the charts.” They did, however, voice concern over Barton’s ultimate power potential.

He was said to have “a tendency to drop the barrel of the bat and slice balls into the gaps.” No one questioned Barton’s on-base chops, but first basemen with anything less than hulking power numbers have a wary eye cast upon them.

Unfortunately, Barton wouldn’t get much of a chance to prove his pop in 2006. He continued to work the count in his first taste of AAA ball (.259/.389/.395 in 180 PA), though he rarely went deep or found the gaps. Barton’s season was derailed, however, when Tony Womack (career OBP: .317) crashed into him at first base. Daric broke his left elbow in the incident. To make up for the lost development, Barton took his cuts in the Dominican League that winter.

While still praising Barton’s “textbook swing”, BA again questioned his ability to be an over-the-fence threat. Daric’s power was called “average at best”, and if he didn’t show more thump, Barton would be a “less-than intimidating threat for a first baseman.”

True to form, Barton showcased precocious strike-zone judgment and underwhelming pop at AAA Sacramento in 2007. He posted a .293/.389/.438 line, drawing a free pass 13.1% of the time and whiffing 13.4 percent. Still, Barton’s ISO was just .145, and his major league equivalent line was a tepid .254/.331/.378. Daric did everything he could to assuage those concerns in a late-season cup of jobe with the A’s, bashing to the tune of .347/.429/.639 with 4 HR in 84 PA.

Oakland gave Barton everyday AB’s in 2008, and the results were…*yawn*. In 523 PA, he compiled a .226/.327/.348 triple-slash, with a .121 ISO that ranked dead last among first baseman with 500+ PA.

Barton did work the count well, walking 12.7% and offering at just 16.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). And he got few bounces to go his way, with a .272 BABIP. Still, singles-hitting first basemen just don’t cut it (for reference, the average first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008).

In 2009, the A’s decided to bring back Jason Giambi to man first base. While the Giambino gave credence to the “you can’t go home again” concept (-0.3 WAR), Barton batted .261/.386/.458 in 313 PA back at Sacramento. Daric walked 15.1%, posting a .198 ISO. That translated to a .223/.322/.373 showing at the highest level, per Minor League Splits.

Called up in early June, Barton mostly rode the pine that month and then hit the DL with a pulled right hamstring in late July. When he returned in late August, the 24 year-old finally showed a pulse at the plate.

Not that Barton lit the world on fire, but he finished the ’09 season with a .269/.372/.413 line in 192 major league PA’s. He drew a free pass 14 percent of the time, hacking at just 13.5% of pitches off the plate. His ISO was .144.

So, what does the future hold for Barton? It has become exceedingly clear that he is never doing to possess the brute strength normally associated with the first base position (average 1B line in 2009: .277/.362/.483). And, if you listen really closely, you can hear Chris Carter and Brett Wallace breathing down Barton’s neck.

Barton’s window of opportunity hasn’t slammed shut, though. Wallace remains at the hot corner for the time being, and Carter’s best position is “hitter”, so the former White Sox and D-Backs prospect may well end up at DH.

At this point, the best-case scenario for Barton’s career would be something like the current, less-powerful version of Nick Johnson (hopefully without the need to be bubble-wrapped prior to taking the field). But Barton must hit the ground running in 2010, lest he be bumped out of the picture by branches of the original trade that brought him to the A’s.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles organization that finished fifth in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -10.70, which was 29th in the Major Leagues and second worst in the American League behind Kansas City (aka The Rays of ’09).

The Good: The Outfield
Depth is never, ever a bad thing. The Baltimore Orioles club had an exciting young outfield in ’09 with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold. The old man of the group, Luke Scott, was banished to DH duties for much of the season. Former top Cubs prospect Felix Pie even made some strides as a hitter, after a few disappointing seasons. Markakis is the stud of the group and he led the team with 101 RBI. Jones was on fire in April and May before fizzling at mid-season. At just 24 years of age, though, no one is overly worried, although his decreased range in the outfield is a bit of a concern. Reimold was a suprise American League Rookie of the Year candidate for much of the season before wearing down in August. His .187 ISO rate hints at impressive power potential. Like Jones, Reimold’s outfield defense was also a disappointment in ’09. Pie posted a .171 ISO rate while also playing at least average defense at all three outfield spots. Scott led the club with 25 home runs

Markakis continues to be a key fantasy outfield player, and Jones could join him in that category in ’10. Reimold’s season ended prematurely due to a torn achille’s tendon, but he’s expected to be healthy for spring training. He should be good for a .260-.280 average and 20-25 homers. Pie is definitely a sleeper to keep an eye on, but his value will also hinge on playing time. Scott can provide a boost in the home run and RBI categories for many fantasy teams and he did appear in 25 games in the outfield in ’09, so he should be eligible as an outfielder in most scenarios.

*If you’re drafting Baltimore pitchers – especially fly-ball hurlers like Chris Tillman – remember that all three starting outfielders (Markakis, Jones, and Reimold) showed below-average range in the field.

The Bad: Melvin Mora, 3B
At 37 years old, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Mora is on the downside of his career. His .260/.321/.358 line in 450 at-bats was a huge disappointment, as he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the league in ’09. Mora posted an ISO rate of just .098 with providing just eight homers. He made above-average contact this past year (85.2%) but he just wasn’t able to get any power in his swing. His wOBA of .302 had him slumming it with the likes of fellow third basemen Emilio Bonifacio and Garrett Atkins. Defensively, Mora’s range has diminished, but he’s still a steady fielder when he gets to the ball.

Mora was worth just shy of a win in ’09, meaning he’ll enter the free agent market worth about $4 million, significantly less than the $9 million he received from the Orioles in the last year of his contract. He may very well end up having to take a minor-league contract if he wants to play in 2010. As well, his days of starting are probably over. Mora should not be drafted in any fantasy format in the upcoming season.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Blue Jays club that finished fourth in the American League East division with a record of 75-87. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -3.08, which was 18th in the Major Leagues and ninth in the American League.

The Good: Aaron Hill, 2B
A lot of things went wrong in Toronto in 2009, but a few players had true breakout seasons, including Adam Lind, Marco Scutaro, and Hill. The second baseman was recently named Comeback Player of the Year after missing a good portion of the 2008 season thanks to a concussion, which makes his ’09 performance all the more impressive. Not even the biggest Aaron Hill fan envisioned a 36 homer, 108 RBI season occurring at any point in his career. His ISO of .213 was fifth amongst MLB second basemen, behind Ben Zobrist (.246), Ian Kinsler (.235), Chase Utley (.226), and Dan Uggla (.216). Toronto has Hill locked up through 2014 (’12-’14 are option years) and paid him just $2.6 million for a four-win season in ’09.

Hill is not likely to repeat his 30+ homer season, but he did hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in ’07. That suggests that a 20-25 homer year would not be out of the question. If he continues to hit out of the two hole in the lineup, he’s not a lock for 100 RBI… 80 would be more realistic, especially if lead-off man Scutaro leaves town.

The Bad: Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
How many teams can compete – especially in the American League East – when three members of the starting rotation are lost to serious injuries? Not many, if any, and Toronto struggled to fill the gaps. Rookies Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski each had their moments, with Rzepczynski showing the most potential for the future. Another rookie hurler, Ricky Romero, was the rotation’s second-best pitcher behind Roy Halladay and has an outside shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the AL. Marcum is expected to be back from Tommy John surgery by spring training 2010. McGowan’s timetable is fuzzy after struggling to comeback from shoulder surgery – while also dealing with subsequent nagging injuries. Litsch’s return date from Tommy John surgery looks to be mid-to-late 2010. With a new direction in the front office perhaps Toronto can figure out why its young pitchers keep getting hurt.

From a fantasy perspective, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch have little value at this point. However, all three should be monitored closely. Marcum, in particular, has a chance of putting together a string of solid starts in 2010 if his stuff bounces back to pre-surgery form. As for the ’09 rookies, Rzepczynski is an excellent sleeper candidate, especially in AL-only formats. Romero is the type of player that might attract the sophomore curse, while Cecil probably needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready to be an impact arm at the MLB level.

Remember “Scott Kazmir, Power Pitcher?” The diminutive lefty, stolen from the New York Mets in an infamous July 2004 deal for Victor Zambrano, established himself as one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the majors.

Sure, his control left something to be desired. But many sins can be forgiven when a southpaw in his early twenties boasts low-to-mid-90’s velocity with a strikeout rate nearing ten batters per nine frames (see Kershaw, Clayton).

After posting FIP’s of 3.76, 3.36 and 3.45 between 2005 and 2007, Kazmir appeared to take a step back in 2008. Sidelined with an elbow injury until early May, the 6-foot lefty wasn’t the same hurler we had become accustomed to.

His K rate remained high (9.81). But, his walk rate increased and his groundball rate plummeted from the low-40’s to just 31 percent. Throwing his heater three-quarters of the time and nearly scrapping his slider, Kazmir coughed up 1.36 homers per nine innings. His FIP was a mild 4.37.

In 2009, Kazmir has cut his walk rate to 3.67 per nine innings (4.14 in 2008). However, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Scott has registered just 7.15 K/9, a far cry from his career mark of 9.31 K/9.

Kazmir’s fastball (coming in at a career-low 91.1 MPH) hasn’t been the same plus this season. His heater was worth +0.55, +0.54 and +0.85 runs per 100 pitches from 2006-2008, but the pitch has been exactly average in 2009 (0.0 per 100 pitches). Kazmir has mixed in his slider more often (21.1%, compared to 9.6% in 2008), but it has been nothing special at -0.29 runs per 100 tosses. Only his 79 MPH changeup has been above-average, though just slightly (+0.09).

The 25 year-old’s diminished stuff is highlighted by his contact rates. On pitches within the strike zone, opposing batters have made contact 86.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate of Kazmir’s career, and comfortably above his career 84 percent mark.

However, the biggest change, by far, is Kazmir’s rate of contact on pitches outside of the zone. When he was whiffing nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, Kazmir posted O-Contact rates well below the major league average. This year, hitters aren’t getting fooled at all:

Kazmir’s O-Contact Rates, 2005-2009:

2005

Kazmir: 49.2
MLB Avg: 51.8

2006

Kazmir: 42.8
MLB Avg: 57.4

2007

Kazmir: 49.5
MLB Avg: 60.8

2008

Kazmir: 58.5
MLB Avg: 61.7

2009

Kazmir: 70.5
MLB Avg: 61.8

When Kazmir tosses a pitch off the plate in hopes of getting a whiff, hitters are making a ton of contact. His swinging strike percentage, mostly in the 11-12% range during his career, is just slightly over 8 percent in 2009 ( right around the MLB average of 7.8% for starters).

Want another indication that Kazmir is struggling to put batters away? Take his performance with two strikes on the batter. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, less than 100 is above-average for the pitcher, greater than 100 is below-average for the hurler). Kazmir’s sOPS+ with two strikes is 114 in 2009 (14 percent worse than the league average). His sOPS+ with two strikes was 84 in 2005, 85 in 2006, 69 in 2007 and 82 in 2008.

Kazmir has kept the fly balls as well, with a 33.8 GB%. He allowed nearly a homer per nine innings in ’09 (0.98 HR/9), despite a HR/FB rate well below the league average (7.3%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB percentage) is an ugly 5.06.

Scott is signed through 2011, with a club option for the 2012 campaign. He’ll make a total of $20M over the 2010 and 2011 seasons, with a $13.5M option for 2012.

If he rebounds, he will be well worth the cash. But Kazmir has been an average starter for two years running. If he’s a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher, then he’s basically being paid what he’s worth. That would mean that Rays made out splendidly in Augusts’ swap with the Angels, parting with a declining starter being paid a market-value salary while picking up three decent prospects in Alexander Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez.

Fantasy owners should approach Kazmir cautiously heading into 2010. He’s not the same dominant starter these days.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the New York Yankees squad that finished first in the American League East division with a record of 103-59. The perennial powerhouse is currently facing the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Championship Series. As a team, the Yankees posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 12.82, which was first overall in the Major Leagues. The last team to come close to posting a similar WPA for the year was the ’05 Red Sox (12.21).

The Good: Robinson Cano, 2B
Second baseman Aaron Hill got a lot of attention in Toronto for his offensive season, but Cano’s wasn’t too shabby, either. Cano reached the 200-hit and plateau for the first time in his career, while hitting .320/.352/.520 with 25 homers. The soon-to-be 27-year-old infielder also hit 48 doubles, which suggests their is more power to come. Although his walk rate remains low at 4.5 BB%, Cano reduced his strikeout rate for the third straight year, from 13.8 to 10.9 to 9.9%. Overall, he was third in the Majors in wOBA (.370) amongst second basemen, behind Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist (.408) and Philadelphia’s Chase Utley (.402).

It seems clear that Cano’s hiccup in ’08 was more fluke than anything else. He remains an elite fantasy option at second base. Cano topped 100 runs for the first time in his career, and had 85 RBI – a total that could increase as he moves into a run-producing role now that he’s matured as a hitter. It’s also encouraging that he feasted on just about everything thrown at him save for the cutter, which gave him significant trouble (-4.91 wCT/C). Cano could top 30 homers as he enters his prime in 2010.

The Bad: Joba Chamberlain, RHP
There isn’t much that goes wrong on a team that compiles such an impressive WPA or 100+ win season. However, Chamberlain’s year can be viewed as a disappointment, as the youngster failed to improve and/or live up to lofty expectations. The right-hander did not have a terrible season but his 4.82 FIP and walk rate of 4.35 BB/9 both headed in the wrong direction. He struggled with his fastball in 2009. It went from a rating of 0.79 wFB/C in ’08 to -1.26 in ’09. His slider was still effective at 1.29 wSL/C. His lack of a consistent third pitch (curve or changeup) hurt him while pitching out of the rotation.

The good news is that Chamberlain is still a young pitcher and this was his first full season in the starting rotation, so ups-and-downs should have been expected. Fantasy owners can look at this as an opportunity to buy low on Chamberlain, who still has good stuff and youth is on his side. He also plays for a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to pile up wins. The slider will result in a good number of strikeouts if he can regain control of the heater – making it less likely that hitters will be able to lay off the breaking ball.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Boston Red Sox club that finished second overall in the American League East division with a record of 95-67. The organization claimed the Wild Card title but was eliminated in the American League Division Series. As a team, the Red Sox posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 4.01, seventh overall in the Majors and third in the AL.

The Good: Jon Lester, LHP
A lot of people felt that Lester peaked in his first full season in the Majors in 2008. A lot of people were wrong. The lefty, at the age of 25, became one of the top hurlers in baseball. He allowed 186 hits in 203.1 innings while striking out 225 batters (9.96 K/9). Lester also posted a nice walk rate at 2.83 BB/9. His fastball velocity increased 1.5 mph over 2008 but it took a step back value wise from 0.82 to 0.25 wFB/C. However, each one of his secondary pitches (cutter, curve, change) improved. Lester was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in 2009, up from 5.1 in 2008.

What’s important for fantasy owners to acknowledge is that he’s proven to be durable – especially considering that he’s coming back from cancer. All his statistics also point to a legitimate improvement in numerous areas, which limits the likelihood of a fluke season. Lester finished fifth in the Majors in strikeouts and he plays on a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to be awarded wins.

The Bad: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
Matsuzaka looked like a stud after his first MLB campaign in 2007; He then won 18 games with just three losses and he posted a strikeout rate of 8.27 K/9 in his sophomore year. There were some red flags, though, such as the walk rate of 5.05 BB/9 and the significant ERA/FIP gap. Even so, Matsuzaka was worth 3.3 wins above replacement in ’08 and fans expected more in ’09. No one expected him to be worth just half a win above replacement, and no one expected Matsuzaka to make just 12 starts. Unfortunately, he was also extremely homer prone (1.52 HR/9), he allowed a lot of line drives (23%) and all of his pitches decreased in effectiveness.

Matsuzaka will enter the 2010 season with a wait-and-see label. The wild-card has a chance to be a dominating pitcher again if he can harness the command of his fastball and slider. His health will also play a huge part in his potential success. At just 29 years of age, Matsuzaka has the potential to provide innings, strikeouts and wins. You will have to accept a certain number of walks and homers, though.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles club that finished fifth overall in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -9.93, third worst in the Majors.

The Good: Adam Jones, CF
The Baltimore organization has one of the best young outfields in all of baseball with the emergence of Jones and Nolan Reimold in 2009. Further growth from Felix Pie could make things even more interesting as the group joins Nick Markakis. Jones’ WAR actually dropped in ’09 from 2.2 to 1.9 but that was due to a regression in the field. Offensively, with better patience at the plate, Jones’ line improved to .277/.335/.457 with an ISO of .180. He should see even more doubles and homers as he increases his fly-ball rate from 28.1%. What this means for 2010 is that Jones has a very good chance of becoming a 20 HR/15 SB player who will also post a respectable batting average and score some runs.

The Bad: The Pitching Staff
It’s not really fair to single out any one pitcher; most of the hurlers on the staff were disappointing. Collectively, Baltimore pitchers allowed the most hits in the American League, while posting the worst FIP and highest home-run rate in the Majors. Young pitchers Chris Tillman (2.08 HR/9) and David Hernandez (2.40) struggled mightily with the long ball. They also posted FIPs above 6.00. Veteran hurler Jeremy Guthrie posted a homer rate of 1.54 HR/9. Former closer Chris Ray made his return from Tommy John surgery but he posted a walk rate of 4.78 BB/9 and posted a 2.01 WHIP. Japanese import Koji Uehara looked good early but then he got hurt (torn flexor tendon). He’ll enter 2010 at the age of 35.

The good news is that Tillman and Hernandez both experienced common growing pains for young pitchers. Tillman, in particular, looks like a future stud; he just needs better command. Brian Matusz is another promising hurler who made eight starts and will enter 2010 as an early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League (Tillman’s eligibility has expired). Both should be keeper-league targets. Neither Ray nor Uehara enter ’10 as fantasy favorites, although Uehara has some value if he’s healthy.

The 2009 post-season surely ended on a sour note for the St. Louis Cardinals, swept in the NLDS by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On a happier note, the Cardinals boast an enviable collection of top-shelf talent. There’s that Pujols fellow, of course. But Yadier Molina’s decent bat for the catcher position led a 3.4 WAR season. SS Brendan Ryan might not cause opposing pitchers to lose much sleep, but his slick glove work led to a 3.2 WAR campaign (does anyone else think that he looks like Super Mario with that red cap and bushy mustache?) On the bump, Adam Wainwright (5.7 WAR) and Chris Carpenter (5.6 WAR) form a one-two punch few can match.

Though he’s still rough around the edges, CF Colby Rasmus has the talent to join that group. Playing most of the year as a 22 year-old, the rangy rookie compiled 2.3 WAR.

The 28th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft, Rasmus was part of an absurdly deep class of prep outfielders that year. Other first-round fly catchers from 2005 include Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce.

Rasmus raced through the system, reaching the AA Texas League by age 20 in 2007. The 6-2 lefty hit plenty of homers for Springfield, belting 29 big-flys and posting a monstrous .275/.381/.551 line in 556 PA. Colby showed off his broad skill set, working the count (12.9 BB%), hitting for power (.275 ISO), swiping bags efficiently (18 SB, 3 CS) and earning rave reviews for his work in center field.

In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America named Rasmus as a consensus top-10 prospect. Praising Rasmus’ “smooth, balanced swing that packs plenty of punch”, BA claimed he had the “head-turning ability of a potential big league all-star.”

Colby entered the 2008 season with considerable fanfare, but he stumbled for the first time in his career at AAA Memphis. Rasmus got off to a sluggish start at the plate, and just when he was starting to make pitchers pay, he sprained his left knee in July on a check swing.

Overall, St. Louis’ prized prospect batted .251/.346/.396 in 387 PA. Rasmus remained disciplined, drawing a walk in 12.9% of his PA again, while still punching out a little more than 20 percent of the time. His extra-base pop suffered, however, with a .145 ISO. Colby stayed smart on the base paths, with 15 SB in 18 attempts. Baseball America remained a big fan, saying Rasmus “should be the first impact position player signed and developed by St. Louis since Albert Pujols.”

In 2009, Rasmus played his way into an everyday role with the N.L. Central Division champs. He hit .251/.307/.407 in 520 PA. Colby popped 16 homers with a .156 ISO, while playing an outstanding center field (+10.9 UZR/150).

Rasmus wasn’t especially patient at the plate, drawing walks at a 7.1 percent clip while whiffing an even 20 percent. Not bashful in terms of taking a cut at a pitch within the strike zone, Colby posted a 73.5 Z-Swing% (65.9% MLB average). That was one of the 20 highest rates among qualified batters. But, he wasn’t some unrestrained hacker, either, as he swung at 25.9 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (slightly above the 25.1% MLB average).

Colby’s biggest problem during his rookie year was those pesky southpaw pitchers. Fellow left-handers owned him to the tune of a .160/.219/.255 triple-slash in 115 PA.

Baseball-Reference offers a helpful stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. a 100 sOPS+ means the player was average in the split category. A figure above 100 indicates he was better than the league average, while a number under 100 indicates a below-average performance. Rasmus’ sOPS+ versus LHP was 35.

Of course, we’re dealing with an awfully small sample of PA against lefties. No bold conclusions should be taken from one year’s worth of platoon splits. Rasmus generally held his own against lefties in the minors, with a career .275/.371/.455 line vs. LHP.

Perhaps the most peculiar aspect of Colby’s rookie season was his stealing just three bases all year long. Though he never racked up massive SB totals, Rasmus holds a career 81.3 percent success rate in the minors. And, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Base Runs stat (definition here), Rasmus was the top base runner on the team and one of the 20 best in the majors. Let ’em loose, guys!

Rasmus has some kinks to work out in terms of working the count and hanging tough against lefty pitching, but he has the tools to become one of the most valuable properties in the game. Those in keeper leagues should have a white-knuckle grip on this guy, and he’s a strong breakout candidate for 2010.

Before the season we wrote a lot of player profiles here at RotoGraphs. The ones I wrote focused on fantasy impacts, frequently mentioning if a player was under or overvalued compared to his ADP. Now that the season is over, I would like to focus on ones that were particularly notable, both for good and bad.

The Poor Predictions

Mike Pelfrey
Prediction: “It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.”

Reality: 10 W, 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.22 K/9 (107 Ks in 184.1 IP)

Notes: In six games in May, Pelfrey was 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. His next lowest ERA month was July’s 4.84 and his next lowest WHIP was the 1.50 he posted in September.

Derrek Lee
Prediction: “Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league. … What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion.”

Reality: Last Player Picked has Lee as the sixth-best first baseman in 2009. He hit 35 HR this season, with 15 of those coming in road parks.

Notes: At the end of May, this forecast was right on, as Lee had a .248/.325/.411 line through 38 games. From June 1st to the end of the year, Lee hit .327 with 30 HR and 92 RBIs in 103 games.

Garrett Atkins
Prediction: “[I]t makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.”

Reality: Atkins was one of the worst players in fantasy this year, with a .226-9-48-37-0 fantasy line.

Notes: There was one brief bright spot this year for Atkins, who hit .327/.393/.509 in June but the rest of the season was horrific.

Jorge Posada
Prediction: “Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Posada as the fifth most valuable fantasy catcher.

Notes: Posada made 88 starts at catcher, his fewest (injury-shortened 2008 aside) since 1998.

Carl Crawford
Prediction: “Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value…. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Crawford as the 10th-best fantasy hitter. Crawford attempted 76 steals and ended up with 60 SB.

Notes: Crawford had 668 of his 672 PA in the second spot in the lineup.

But there were many good predictions, too, even if the above are the ones that jump immediately to mind.

More Successful Ones

Asdrubal Cabrera
Prediction: “Cabrera will be an afterthought on Draft Day in most mixed leagues next season. But by the end of the season he will be on an active roster in most leagues. He is definitely someone to consider in the final rounds of your draft.”

Reality: He was owned in 84 percent of CBS Sports leagues at the end of the year after starting with an ESPN ADP of 260.

Notes: Cabrera will once again have eligibility at both 2B and SS in 2010.

Ryan Zimmerman
Prediction: “Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.”

Reality: Zimmerman ranked as the 17th-best fantasy hitter according to Last Player Picked and finished with 110 R and 106 RBIs.

Notes: After three consecutive seasons of nearly identical HR/FB rates, Zimmerman had a career-best 15.9 percent mark in the category, which led to 33 HR, a personal best.

Prince Fielder
Prediction: “Fielder may be slightly undervalued by the mock drafting crowd (ADP: 26). The mockers prefer Justin Morneau, who on average is going six slots ahead of Fielder. Morneau provided much more value in 2008, but I would prefer Fielder’s power over Morneau’s RBI bat this season.”

Reality: Last Player Picked had Fielder as the fouth-best fantasy hitter while Morneau finished outside the top 50 after his mid-September injury. Fielder finished with 46 HR.

Notes: Fielder led the NL with 141 RBIs.

Cole Hamels
Prediction: “Hamels will have to improve on last year’s outstanding season to be worth a fourth-round pick. And there are enough warning signs around him to make passing on him in that slot an easy choice.”

Reality: Hamels fell off in all four categories from 2008 and was outside of the top 30 pitchers.

Notes: Hamels had an ADP of 41.

Jacoby Ellsbury
Prediction: “Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise? Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP (67).”

Reality: Ellsbury finished with 70 SB and 94 R en route to being the 14th-best fantasy hitter, according to Last Player Picked.

Notes: Ellsbury outearned Ichiro, with his 44 SB edge being more valuable than Ichiro’s 51-point AVG advantage.

Other predictions that turned out well included ones for Markakis, Bay, K. Johnson, Victorino, A. Soriano and Haren. I was more bullish than the ADPs for Choo and Mauer although both outperformed my expectations for them.