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When we checked the center field position and created tiered rankings, there were a few players that were suggested as possible values at the position.

Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin could provide some nice speed – at the cost of risking your batting average. Since the rankings were for rotisserie baseball, that risk pushed those players off of the rankings.

But what if we were talking about head-to-head baseball, where punting a category is a strategy many deep leaguers employ? In such a format, you are competing in ten categories every week and can easily ‘punt’ a category if it provides an advantage elsewhere. Imagine the value you could get out of eschewing batting average – your lineup could employ Jimmy Rollins, Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, and Jayson Werth, all without the problems that lineup would normally entail.

With that strategy in mind, is Chris Young a viable option in 2010? If Bill James is to be believed, Youngs’ power and speed could return and answer that question affirmatively. The fans have yet to chime in (but should take this chance to give their input).

After famously being demoted to the minor leagues last year, Young returned to a post-All-Star-break line that could help batting-average-punters (.236/.343/.444) – at least in the power department. He didn’t steal a base. We can be forgiven for feeling confused.

Looking at his plate discipline stats may just muddy the waters. Every statistic is going in a different direction. His strikeout rate has gotten steadily worse (24.8% in 2007 to 30.7% last year), but he’s reaching less often (22.9% in 2007 to 18.0% last year). Perhaps it’s all about his contact rate, which is definitely getting worse (79.7% in 2006 to 73.9% last year), but there are plenty of players that succeed with a 75-ish% contact rate (Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez most prominently), and with his still-strong walk rate (9.1% career, 12% in 2009), he has his good qualities.

There’s also something interesting going on with Young’s take rate. As RJ pointed out, Young takes a lot of pitches in the zone, and a good portion of those pitches could have been called balls last year. But again, Victor Martinez and Chris Coghlan both also took about 40% of the pitches they saw in the zone, and they had pretty good years last year.

It may just be that a player that both takes a lot of pitches in the zone and doesn’t make contact is going to have a hard time in major league baseball. Let’s set the bar at Young’s career levels of swinging in the zone (around 60%) and contact rate (around 76%). How many other players in the last two years have had good seasons with those rates?

Last year, the list was short: Mike Cameron, Jason Bay and Brandon Inge all had passable years sporting percentages close to Young’s numbers (but none took as many pitches in the zone, with Cameron swinging the least at 63.7%). In 2008, it was Jason Bay and Mike Cameron again (but Bay made contact on 77.1% of his pitches, and Cameron swung at more pitches than Young.)

It looks like we have a (rather obvious) comp in Mike Cameron then. Except that if you compare Cameron’s career numbers in the two categories (63.9% Z-swing%, 75.4% contact rate), you’ll notice he doesn’t take as many pitches in the zone. He also plays solid center field defense (+5.7 UZR/150 in CF, career).

And you have your two things to work on for Chris Young the Outfielder. In order to be Mike Cameron, he needs to swing at more pitches in the zone and play better defense. Then he’ll always have a place on the field. The good news is that Young swung at more pitches in the zone last year than he did the previous two years. The bad news is that his defense needs to take a serious step forward this year (-4.9 UZR/150 in CF, career). The good news means that he may be ownable in the right league next year. The bad news means that he won’t be ownable in any keeper leagues going forward if the defense doesn’t improve.

We checked out right field this week and found that once again the outfield provides serious value late in the rankings. Jermaine Dye, the fourteenth-ranked outfielder in those rankings, is a good bet for close to 30 home runs and a decent batting average next year. But let’s take a look at some of the guys that will be fringe picks in most mixed leagues. They’ll be relevant in most leagues.

J.D. Drew got some love from Big Oil in the comments, and rightly so. At first glance, he had an almost exactly average JD Drew season last year. His wOBA (.389 in 2009, .386 career), BABIP (.320 last year, .321 career), OPS (.914 last year, .896 career), O-Swing % (15.3% in 2009, 15.8% career) and walk rate (15.4% in 2009, 14.7% career) are all eerily close to his career averages. So if it wasn’t a lucky year, he should be a lock for a .280 average and 20+ home runs in 500 plate appearances – and therefore a boon to players that can change their lineups daily.

That is not to say that Drew is without his own asterisks. There’s always the health question with him, as he’s averaged only 480 plate appearances a year for his entire career. Last year, his speed score dropped dramatically, from 5.2 in 2008 (5 is average) down to 3.7. Bill James seems to think the drop is a harbinger for a lower BABIP and a lower batting average in 2010 and projects a batting average about ten points lower than the fans do. Looking at Drew’s batted ball profile – he’s hitting more fly balls every season – it does seem to follow that he’s hitting more like a prototypical slugger as he ages. It’s possible his batting average drops next year, but with a five-year high in ISO in 2009, it’s possible that he makes up for the missing hits with a little extra power.

Kyle Blanks is an all-or-nothing hitter that hits like a prototypical slugger already. The Shaq-like (285 pounds!), afro-sporting behemoth of a first baseman will be manning the outfield (poorly), striking out (37.2% in 2009), and punishing the ball for the Padres next year (.264 ISO). The good news is that he should be able to improve that strikeout rate considering his 22.3% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues. If he can get that rate under 30%, he should be able to bring the batting average to a respectable level so that his fantasy owners can enjoy his power without pummeling their batting average.

A lot has been written about Alex Rios over the past year, and he’s certainly a lightning rod for discussion. Because he’s once hit 24 home runs and stolen 32 bases in his career, he’s been saddled with some unreasonable projections that had him challenging for .300/30/30 numbers. He’s just not that kind of player, though, as his groundball percentage (42.8%) is just too high for him to produce real power. On the other hand, the speed is real (76.9% career success rate) and by all accounts he had an unlucky year last year (.277 BABIP in 2009, .321 xBABIP in 2009, .323 BABIP career). If you revise those old predictions to a more realistic .280/20/20, you’ll likely find yourself pleased at years-end.

Elijah Dukes deserves a mention despite the fact that his speed is not currently playing at the major league level (50% success rate) and he just can’t stay healthy. But some year he just might stay healthy, and if you prorate Bill James’ projections for him to 500 at-bats, you’re looking at a .263/17/13 player that will probably cost you very little. He’s periodically shown ISOs over .200, and the James projection only has him at .176 in that department, so there’s even a sliver of upside in those power numbers.

Kelly Shoppach is a potential non tender or trade candidate this off season. But the soon-to-be 30 year old still does have value despite a disappointing 2009 season.

He’s destined for a raise after making nearly $2 million in 2009 and the Indians have a MLB ready catcher in Lou Marson whose waiting in the wings. And don’t forget about blue chip prospect Carlos Santana who will be banging on the MLB door after destroying Double-A pitching in 2009.

The former Baylor standout was the first college catcher selected in the 2001 draft by the Red Sox. They used their first available selection on him in the second round. He appeared on Baseball America’s top 10 Red Sox prospect lists for a few seasons before being dealt away to Cleveland before 2006 in the Coco Crisp deal.

Shoppach spent time as Victor Martinez’s backup and when Martinez went down with injuries in 2008 Shoppach ran with the starting opportunity. He led all starting catchers in 2009 ISO (.256) in 353 at-bats. All in all he hit for a .370 wOBA but his .261/.348/.517 line was fueled by a .359 BABIP.

David G. successfully predicted a decline in Shoppach’s 2009 production. While Shoppach’s 2009 batting average plummeted to .214 he still reached base at an above average clip (.335) but his prestigious power that the hacktastic Shoppach previously featured vanished. In 89 games and 271 at-bats Shoppach slugged .399 with 12 home runs.

Shoppach was squeezed for playing time this season. Before some late season trades he was vying for playing time with Victor Martinez as the regular catcher and Ryan Garko at first base. Travis Hafner gobbled up DH time when his shoulder cooperated with him. Prior to the trades Shoppach would typically see playing time when Martinez played first base, Shoppach caught, and Garko hit the pine or saw time at designated hitter. Shoppach didn’t receive an ample opportunity to produce at the rate he did in 2008 until the trades of Garko and Martinez.

With the acquisition of Lou Marson (who also received a September call up and could start 2010 as the starting catcher) Shoppach doesn’t seem to fit in with the Indians. They already have another capable and cheaper back up in Wyatt Toregas. Marson and someone else (possibly Toregas) will likely keep the catching seat warm until Carlos Santana bursts onto the big league scene.

While Shoppach didn’t receive the best opportunity to replicate his 2008 showing he still presents value to other MLB clubs if the Indians do indeed decide to move on. Shoppach’s always been known as a strikeout prone (his strikeout rate is right up there with Jack Cust and Mark Reynolds at 36%) catcher with plus power and solid defense. Scouting reports usually treat Shoppach well in the defensive department. But for what its worth from a recent quantitative standpoint/analysis from new Fangraphs contributor Matt Klaassen AKA Devil_Fingers he was rated as a smidge below average in 2009 (#84 on the list and -1.5 totalruns).

While a throbbing .359 BABIP aided Shoppach’s stellar 2008 campaign a .286 BABIP cut into his 2009 slash stats. The average 2009 MLB hitters BABIP was .299 and that may lead you to believe that Shoppach’s 2009 BABIP normally regressed to the mean. But that is wrong. Shoppach’s consistently over performed the league average BABIP throughout his short career until 2009. Dating back to 2006 his BABIPS has been .286, .359, .357, and .387. It’s likely a fluke that this number remained so high in 2006 and 2007 despite just 110 and 161 at-bats.

This data tells us that Shoppach isn’t a .286 BABIP hitter and that number damaged his 2009 numbers heavily even though he walked and struck out at a similar rate to his 2008 season. The Hardball Times has the best BABIP estimator currently available and this trusty tool can paint a much better picture than raw BABIP. The new toy (and new Rotographs favorite) finds an estimated BABIP based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs. This tool gives us a .332 BABIP for Shoppach in 2009 and a .322 mark for him during his 2008 career year. This estimator suppresses his 2008 numbers but does not damage them as much as alternative methods suggest.

Over Shoppach’s career (right around 900 at-bats) The Hardball Times BABIP estimator has his estimated career BABIP at .327 so his 2009 expected BABIP of .332 doesn’t sound out of line at all. This represents a much more realistic BABIP skill for Shoppach. A .332 BABIP for Shoppach in 2009 would have given him a .260/.381/.445 line assuming that all of those extra hits were singles. It’s fair to assume that his power would have increased more than the normal player with a boosted BABIP due to his known knack to hit for power so this revised projection might be a little light on the power side. I’d personally suppress the batting average and OBP a bit while adding some to the slugging percentage. That gives you some nifty production from the catcher position that some team will have to find resourceful if Cleveland decides to cut ties with the arbitration eligible Shoppach.

It’s worth keeping a close eye on Shoppach’s situation this off season especially since he doesn’t appear to fit Cleveland’s plans very well. Wherever he lands the month of March will likely be key to his future. If Shoppach receives ample playing time he should be a cheap source of power from the catcher position and can be had extra late in your drafts or plucked off of the waiver wire due to his uninspiring, yet misleading, 2009 campaign.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one.

I’m thankful for…Brandon Webb getting hurt last year. Even though it ruined one of my teams, he will slip past his healthy value allowing owners to snatch him up and hope he’s healthy.

I’m thankful for…Victor Martinez being traded to the Red Sox. With a good lineup around him, it’s hard to imagine the RBI numbers that might show up in the box score next season. If they can add a decent hitting corner infielder, it will be even better.

I’m thankful for…Russell Branyan’s back issues. It may seem cruel that I’m happy about players are getting hurt, but it’s hard not to be. His back slowed him for a couple months, bringing his total numbers down and forcing owners to forget about his hot start a bit. While he won’t be a sleeper again, he may go a round or two later than he should.

I’m thankful for…Luke Scott. Scott’s power streak after coming off of an injury carried my team for a couple weeks. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.

I’m thankful for…Ryan Franklin’s beard, and saves. Owners will ignore the fluky BABIP and lack of K’s and draft him far too early next year. I’m staying away, thank you very much (see what I did there?).

I’m thankful for…B.J. Upton’s bad 2009. He won’t hit .241 again, I promise. Because he still stole 42 bases, he won’t have sleeper status, but he will be undervalued.

I’m thankful for…Nick Johnson’s healthy ’09. I had Johnson in an OBP league, hoping he’d stay healthy and for once he did. Interested to see where he lands in free agency.

I’m thankful for…Mark Reynolds‘ low batting average. Someone is going to say “no thanks” when they glance at his .260 avg, but I’m more than happy with 40+ jacks and 20+ steals from my third baseman.

I’m thankful for…Curtis Granderson’s struggles against southpaws. Like Reynolds, Grandy’s .249 avg is going to scare other owners off. Dig deeper, and you’ll see he hit .275/.358/.539 with 28 of his 30 homers against right handers. If you’re smart enough to check your matchups and only play Grandy versus righties, he’s extremely valuable.

All that being said, what are you thankful for?

As you all probably know, it’s the American Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday, so we Canadian writers are holding down the fort, having celebrated our Thanksgiving this past Oct. 12 (We canuckleheads are a crazy bunch).

Anyway, your friends to the north are not the only ones working during this holiday time. Some Major League Baseball teams have been busy working the transaction wire, including the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Padres, Kansas City… and the White Sox, as you learned with Dave’s recent post discussing the signing of Andruw Jones with the White Sox.

The Boston Red Sox made a minor move by acquiring infielder Tug Hulett from the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named or cash. Hulett had been designated for assignment recently. The move brings in some infield depth on the 40-man roster. The infielder, who never got a fair shot in KC, moves on to a club that should truly appreciate his ability to get on base, while providing depth at multiple infield positions. His defense is nothing special, but Hulett is an offensive-minded infielder with a career minor-league on-base average of .393. He also has the ability to hit 10-15 homers and steal just as many bases if given full playing time, which is unlikely to happen. In deep AL-only fantasy leagues, Hulett could offer short-term value if an injury occurs to a Boston starter. Just you watch… Kansas City will now go out and give a veteran bench player $1 million to fill the role that Hulett could have done for the league minimum. Frankly, I think he would have been a nice pick-up by the Jays organization.

I won’t completely condemn the Royals. Like Hulett, Buck Coats is one of those minor-league players that I would have grabbed for depth if I was a big-league GM. The Kansas City organization signed the outfielder as a minor-league free agent after he spent the past two season in triple-A with Toronto. Keeping in mind that Coats played in one of the best triple-A parks to hit in, he managed a triple-slash line of .302/.361/.415 with 25 steals in 32 attempts. His strikeout rate was just 12.8%, yet he has never gotten on base enough (8.6 BB%) to take advantage of his speed. Coats could settle in as a nice fourth outfielder with arguably more offensive upside than Josh Anderson, Mitch Maier, or Willie Bloomquist (and for less money). If Coats does make the opening day roster, keep him in mind for possible steals in AL-only leagues.

The Toronto Blue Jays were expected to ink veteran shortstop John McDonald to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, but instead it turned out to be a two-year, $3 million deal, making the decision even worse than it was. Yes, Marco Scutaro is on his way out of town (for two much-needed, high draft picks) but the club could have found a better way to spend $3 million. Although the sample size is small, UZR suggests McDonald is no longer a gifted fielder, and that he’s still getting paid based on his reputation from years past. And offensively, he’s a black hole. If he ends up getting the starting – or even a platoon – gig in Toronto, do not – under any circumstance – consider him in your deepest of deep fantasy leagues. His 0.7% walk rate from ’09 is good for a chuckle, though.

Perhaps the most intriguing move of the day was the waiver claim of Radhames Liz. The hard-throwing right-hander was picked up by San Diego from Baltimore, which was obviously having Daniel Cabrera flashbacks. The 26-year-old Liz has a killer fastball, in terms of velocity, but he has troubles finding the plate on most nights. This past season, he threw well in eight double-A starts, but imploded in triple-A and the Majors. He had three shots at the Majors with Baltimore over the span of three seasons and failed them all, compiling a 6.26 FIP (7.50 ERA) along the way in 110.1 innings. Despite sitting around 92-94 mph, Liz has never had success in the Majors with his heater – or his 84 mph change-up. His slider has shown the most promise in limited showings, with a rate of -0.2 wSL. San Diego, which plays in a cavernous park, could be the best thing to happen to Liz in his pro career. If he can show enough command/control in spring training, he could develop into a power arm for the bullpen… But it is a big “If.” Liz is certainly not a fantasy option at this point, but don’t forget the name just yet.

Two outfielders with similar names put up eerily similar fantasy numbers last year. Here are the respective numbers for Jason Bay and Jayson Werth:

JB:.267-36-119-103-13
JW: .268-36-99-98-20

The largest difference in any category is the 20 RBIs that separate them. As you might imagine, the two winded up with very similar dollar values. The RotoTimes Player Rater gave Bay’s season a $24.40 total while Werth’s received a $24.12 value.

But while those were very close, there were many, many more players who winded up with closer gaps in their dollar value. Many of these players played different positions and posted very different stats, but came out with similar values. For instance, check out these two lines:

A: .281-13-90-73-7
B: .243-31-90-84-2

Which one would you rather have?

Player A is James Loney, with an $8.53 value, while Player B is Dan Uggla, who checked in with an $8.52 total. Obviously, you would rather have Player B, once you know it was Uggla, a second baseman. The Player Rater does not take into account position scarcity. So, when making comparisons you either need to build in your own adjustments or focus on players at similar positions.

Let’s look at two players who have been compared recently by agent Scott Boras, in Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday. Boras, the agent for both, is trying to get a contract for Holliday similar to the one he arranged for Teixeira last year. The argument has been met with a lukewarm response from the baseball community, but is one that was fairly apt for fantasy purposes last year. Here are their fantasy numbers:

MT:.292-32-122-103-2
MH:.313-24-109-94-14

The Player Rater gave Teixeira a $25.70 value and Holliday a $25.52 one.

Another interesting comparison between two players with very different skills but similar overall values last season is Ian Kinsler and Michael Bourn. Kinsler’s power and Bourn’s speed produced virtually identical fantasy seasons.

IK:.253-31-86-101-31
MB: .285-3-35-97-61

The Player Rater had the two separated by just one penny, with Kinsler posting the higher value at $22.81 last season.

Dollar values are not a precise measurement and different sites will have different values for players. These are best used as a rough estimate of value and as a reminder that owners (and players) can acquire value in a multitude of ways.

The ultra toolsy Cameron Maybin has always had very high expectations. You really can’t blame them as the former 2005 first round draft picks first two MLB hits, including a home run, came as a 20 year old off of Roger Clemens in late 2007. He was also the key to the blockbuster deal that the Marlins and Tigers pulled off at the 2007 winter meetings when Miguel Cabrera was shipped off to Motown. Baseball America ranked Maybin as the number one prospect in the organization over the past three seasons (including 2007 in Detroit).

Maybin’s tools and athleticism have had fantasy owners eagerly awaiting on the sidelines until they translated into performance at the big league level. Maybin was given the opportunity to man center field for the Fish at the outset of 2009 and he struggled mightily in 84 at-bats in April and May. In those 84 at-bats he hit .202/.280/.310 and struck out at an ugly 37% clip. Strikeouts have been the one main concern about Maybin in the scouting reports.

He was demoted to Triple-A New Orleans in May and put everything together over the next 82 games and 298 at-bats despite playing with a partially torn labrum that bothered him over the second half of the season. In New Orleans Maybin raked to the tune of .319/.399/.463 which is good for a .387 wOBA. A .388 BABIP padded his slash stats but most importantly Maybin cut down on the strikeouts and only struck out 20% of the time in Triple-A.

These improvements earned him a September call up and he played regularly to close out the season with the big league team. Over 78 at-bats Maybin hit .282/.352/.487 with three home runs and he stayed away from strike three. Maybin’s strikeout rate over the month, though a small sample size, stuck at 23% in the big leagues and he walked nine times.

Maybin will be 23 years old when the 2010 season starts and he’s expected to be the Marlins starting center fielder on opening day barring something catastrophic. He recently underwent surgery on his labrum and is expected to be 100% this Spring. Maybin will be a sleeper on draft day and should be good for 15-20 steals and a good source of hits and batting average. Drafters will likely be hesitant to nab him due to his unappetizing overall 2009 big league stats but Maybin improved his strikeout rate and plate recognition over the course of last season. It’s all systems go for Maybin and he’s a giant sleeper that could be had late on draft day.

The Chicago White Sox organization has traded rookie second baseman Chris Getz and disappointing third baseman Josh Fields, a former first round draft pick, to the Kansas City Royals for infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen.

With a .323 wOBA in ’09, Teahen is nothing special as a hitter, especially for someone who spends most of his time at third base or in right field. The 28-year-old posted a 0.3 WAR in ’09 and was a both a below-average hitter and a below-average fielder at every position he played at. For fantasy managers, Teahen has value simply because of his versatility; he should be eligible for third base and the outfield in all formats, while he also appeared in 11 games at first base and three games at second base. He is good for a batting average of about .250-270 and, if he plays everyday, he should produce 12-18 homers, although the move to Chicago could inflate his offensive numbers. With the outfield depth looking pretty good, Teahen should see everyday duty at third base with Gordon Beckham moving back to his natural position at shortstop and Alexei Ramirez sliding back to second base.

Fields wore out his welcome in Chicago in ’09 with another disappointing season. He hit just .222/.301/.347 in 239 at-bats and was eventually pushed aside by Beckham. Fields will turn 27 in December so time is running out for him to reclaim the form that saw him slug 23 homers in 373 at-bats for the White Sox in ’07. Even then, though, he hit just .244/.308/.480. He has enough power to be valuable in deep AL formats, but he will likely do a lot of damage in batting average and he doesn’t get on base enough to help in runs. Fields made 17 appearances at first base in ’09 so he should be eligible there, as well as at the hot corner. Don’t expect him to see much playing time if Alex Gordon can turn things around.

The White Sox organization parts ways with Getz after handing the rookie the starting second base job in ’09. The 26-year-old infielder missed time with injuries but he hit .261/.324/.347 in 375 at-bats and stole 25 bases in 27 attempts. His speed makes him an interesting fantasy player, as he should improve offensively in ’10, although the lineup around him could be weaker. Getz isn’t going to drive in runs so he needs to improve his walk rate (7.4%) so he can throw up a better runs-scored total. He was overpowered by good fastballs in ’09, but hopefully that was caused – at least somewhat – by the broken finger and oblique injuries (His slugging percentage plummeted in the last two months of the season). Because of his speed, Getz is potentially a better fantasy option at second base than Royals incumbent Alberto Callaspo, who probably won’t drive in 70+ runs again and his power output exceeded expectations based on his minor-league numbers. Monitor the race in spring training, though, to see if Getz will earn enough playing time to be of value.

When we checked the position and identified the tiers for shortstops going into next year, some readers thought we should break the list down into AL- and NL-only lists in order to help deeper league managers understand potential late-draft steals at the position. Instead of bogging this post down with lists, though, let’s just comb through shortstops that didn’t quite make our top twelve. We’ll be sure to find some value deeper into the rankings.

Some of the players just missing the cut did so because they got a grade of “incomplete” last year. Those players have to be ranked above those that played the whole year and put together poor campaigns, right?

The most exciting non-top-twelve shortstop would have to be Alcides Escobar if only the Brewers are prepared to hand him the job in 2010. The early prognosis is positive. He played 15 of the Brewer’s last 19 games in 2009 and his capable offense (.304/.333/.368) and okay defense (-5 UZR/150) were good enough to be worth about a million dollars per month. His BABIP (.345) looks high, and next to his xBABIP (.296) shows that his batting average is a little risky. He does reach too much (30%), but at least he puts the ball on the ground (52% in 2009) where his plus speed (42 stolen bases against 10 caught stealings in AAA in 2009) can help him find some hits. Call him slightly riskier than Ryan Theriot, but if he comes at a cheaper price, he has a higher upside given his speed.

Mike Aviles also got an incomplete grade in 2009. After bursting onto the scene in 2008, there were some warning signs that Aviles may have some trouble repeating the performance. The biggest worry about his actual performance in 2009, though, were his plummeting contact rates and rising strikeout rates. Pretty much the best thing that Aviles had going for him was his ability to put wood on the ball in the zone (90.7% in 2008) and not strikeout (13.8% in 2008). Both of these attributes were consistent throughout his minor league career, but they both disappeared in 2009 (85.6% contact rate in the zone, 21.7% strikeout rate). He’ll need to recover his old bat-control ways in order to get his job back. The good news is that there’s only Yuniesky Betancourt and his .639 2009 OPS in his way. Given the fact that Aviles’ stats last year were the outliers when considered against his entire career, there’s at least a decent chance that Aviles puts up a good batting average with a little power somewhere on the infield in 2010.

Asdrubal Cabrera makes an interesting case study. His .362 BABIP last year threatens to put some risk into his best category (batting average) when seen alone. But look at that same number next to his lifetime BABIP (.342) and his xBABIP (.340) and you realize that he’s a speedy guy that may have figured out how to get the most of his hits. Perhaps he does it by favoring the ground game (48% groundballs), which does rob him of some power and leave him with little value if the batting average dives. If he can retain his speed (5.9 speed score in 2009, 5.1 career, 2.7 in his poor 2008 showing), Cabrera is a good mid-round bet to repeat the rest of his 2009 numbers.

Back over the National League for a late-round value, we find a newly minted starting shortstop (and another Cabrera) in San Diego’s Everth Cabrera. On the good side of his ledger is the fact that his organization does not have better options and he showed the ability to get on base (10%) and good speed (25 stolen bases in 33 attempts). There are some negatives. Despite some subjective reports of good defense, his UZR/150 was poor (-10.6). Also, his approach at the plate combines too many strikeouts (23.3%) with a paucity of line drives (14.8%) to produce a bit of a limp-noodle combined line (.255/.342/.361). In fantasy, however, all you have to know is that he has speed and can take a walk. Those stolen bases will give you good return on your investment.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Rays organization that finished third in the American League East division with a record of 84-78. As a team, the Rays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) on offense of 1.38. The team’s pitching WPA score was 1.62.

The Good: Carl Crawford, OF
The 28-year-old Crawford had a bounce back season in ’09, much to the joy of fantasy owners. After stealing just 25 bases in an injury-filled ’08 season, the speedy player reached a career high this past season with 60 (in 76 attempts). Crawford also set a career mark with a walk rate of 7.8% and with any luck it will continue to climb in ’10 if he is in fact maturing as a hitter. It was a bit of a disappointment that Crawford fell short of the 100 run target, but a bounce back season from B.J. Upton could help, as well as continued production from Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.

Crawford probably won’t reach 60 steals again, but 40-50 would be a reasonable goal, as he’s surpassed the 50 mark in five of his seven full seasons. As it was, Crawford was a Top 10 hitter in most leagues in ’09 and there are not many players out there that are as diverse as Crawford: .280-.300 average, 15+ homers, 40-50 steals and 90-100 runs scored. He really only disappoints on driving in runs.

The Bad: B.J. Upton, OF
Inconsistent and frustrating. Those are two words that sum up Upton. In 2007, at the age of 22, he appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness as the former infielder posted a line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 homers and 22 steals in just 474 at-bats. Unfortunately, his OPS of .894 dropped to .784 in ’08 and down to .686 in ’09. His home run totals have fluctuated from 24 to nine to 11. The only positive side, from a fantasy perspective, is that he’s provided 40+ steals in each of the past two seasons.

Upton will no doubt enter 2010 as a mid-level draftee in most fantasy formats. You can certainly gain value from his 40+ steals but he could very well do damage in the batting average category. His overall value with the bat has diminished significantly over the past two seasons. Upton may be in need of a scenery change, and the club just might accommodate him this winter. He remains a sleeper talent. At 25 years of age, he has yet to enter his prime as a hitter so he could explode any moment. The only thing that’s clear at this point, though, is that if you’re going Upton early in your draft… go Justin. Just don’t dismiss B.J. quite yet.