Daric Barton’s Future

In December of 2004, the Oakland Athletics broke up “The Big Three.” The venerated trio of Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito dissolved in short order, with Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals and Hudson swapped to Atlanta just two days later.

The Mulder deal has surpassed GM Billy Beane’s wildest expectations. While Mulder topped 200 frames in his first season in St. Louis, a myriad of shoulder injuries and surgeries have all but ended the left-hander’s career.

Meanwhile, the A’s got three superb seasons from Dan Haren, who averaged 4.3 Wins Above Replacement from 2005-2007.

Oakland then flipped Haren to the Diamondbacks for a prospect bounty including rookie stud Brett Anderson (3.8 WAR in 2009), top slugging prospect Chris Carter (.241 ISO between AA and AAA), outfielder Aaron Cunningham and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Gonzalez was traded to the Rockies as part of the Holliday deal, and then Holliday was bartered to St. Louis for a package including 3B?/1B?/DH? Brett Wallace.

Suffice it to say, that original Mulder trade has borne much fruit for the A’s. It might seem crazy now, given how wildly successful Haren has become, but the top young player acquired in that trade was supposed to be Daric Barton.

The 28th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Barton began his career as a catcher before shedding the tools of ignorance for good in 2005. But from the get go, the lefty batter displayed a plate approach well beyond his years.

Daric established himself as an on-base fiend, posting a .294/.420/.424 line in rookie ball in 2003. He followed that up with a whopping .313/.445/.511 triple-slash as an 18 year-old in the Low-A Midwest League in 2004.

Baseball America ranked Barton as the second-base prospect in the A’s system prior to the 2005 season. BA gushed that “while Dan Haren and even Kiko Calero will pay more immediate dividends, many consider Barton to be the real prize Oakland received in the Mark Mulder trade with Oakland.”

Though Daric ultimately couldn’t remain behind the dish (he caught one game in ’05), he did nothing to dispel the notion that his bat would make him a building block for the A’s. With High-A Stockton of the California League, Barton batted .318/.438/.469 in 361 PA.

Considering the hitter-friendly nature of the Cal League, Barton’s .151 Isolated Power was pretty mild. But for a teenager to garner far more free passes than punch outs (17.2 BB%, 13.6 K%) is pretty special.

Bumped up to the AA Texas League for the second half of the ’05 season, Barton didn’t skip a beat. He hit .316/.410/.491 in 249 PA, owning the strike zone by walking in 14.1% of his PA and whiffing 12 percent. Barton even put a charge in the ball more often, with his ISO rising to .175.

Barton was a prospect darling by this point, topping the A’s farm system while also getting a place on the personal top 50 prospects lists of Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Will Lingo, John Manuel and Allan Simpson. BA called Daric’s pitch recognition “off the charts.” They did, however, voice concern over Barton’s ultimate power potential.

He was said to have “a tendency to drop the barrel of the bat and slice balls into the gaps.” No one questioned Barton’s on-base chops, but first basemen with anything less than hulking power numbers have a wary eye cast upon them.

Unfortunately, Barton wouldn’t get much of a chance to prove his pop in 2006. He continued to work the count in his first taste of AAA ball (.259/.389/.395 in 180 PA), though he rarely went deep or found the gaps. Barton’s season was derailed, however, when Tony Womack (career OBP: .317) crashed into him at first base. Daric broke his left elbow in the incident. To make up for the lost development, Barton took his cuts in the Dominican League that winter.

While still praising Barton’s “textbook swing”, BA again questioned his ability to be an over-the-fence threat. Daric’s power was called “average at best”, and if he didn’t show more thump, Barton would be a “less-than intimidating threat for a first baseman.”

True to form, Barton showcased precocious strike-zone judgment and underwhelming pop at AAA Sacramento in 2007. He posted a .293/.389/.438 line, drawing a free pass 13.1% of the time and whiffing 13.4 percent. Still, Barton’s ISO was just .145, and his major league equivalent line was a tepid .254/.331/.378. Daric did everything he could to assuage those concerns in a late-season cup of jobe with the A’s, bashing to the tune of .347/.429/.639 with 4 HR in 84 PA.

Oakland gave Barton everyday AB’s in 2008, and the results were…*yawn*. In 523 PA, he compiled a .226/.327/.348 triple-slash, with a .121 ISO that ranked dead last among first baseman with 500+ PA.

Barton did work the count well, walking 12.7% and offering at just 16.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). And he got few bounces to go his way, with a .272 BABIP. Still, singles-hitting first basemen just don’t cut it (for reference, the average first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008).

In 2009, the A’s decided to bring back Jason Giambi to man first base. While the Giambino gave credence to the “you can’t go home again” concept (-0.3 WAR), Barton batted .261/.386/.458 in 313 PA back at Sacramento. Daric walked 15.1%, posting a .198 ISO. That translated to a .223/.322/.373 showing at the highest level, per Minor League Splits.

Called up in early June, Barton mostly rode the pine that month and then hit the DL with a pulled right hamstring in late July. When he returned in late August, the 24 year-old finally showed a pulse at the plate.

Not that Barton lit the world on fire, but he finished the ’09 season with a .269/.372/.413 line in 192 major league PA’s. He drew a free pass 14 percent of the time, hacking at just 13.5% of pitches off the plate. His ISO was .144.

So, what does the future hold for Barton? It has become exceedingly clear that he is never doing to possess the brute strength normally associated with the first base position (average 1B line in 2009: .277/.362/.483). And, if you listen really closely, you can hear Chris Carter and Brett Wallace breathing down Barton’s neck.

Barton’s window of opportunity hasn’t slammed shut, though. Wallace remains at the hot corner for the time being, and Carter’s best position is “hitter”, so the former White Sox and D-Backs prospect may well end up at DH.

At this point, the best-case scenario for Barton’s career would be something like the current, less-powerful version of Nick Johnson (hopefully without the need to be bubble-wrapped prior to taking the field). But Barton must hit the ground running in 2010, lest he be bumped out of the picture by branches of the original trade that brought him to the A’s.