Archive for Uncategorized

Brandon Webb – Strained Ligament In Right Shoulder – Brandon is looking to come back at the end of April from his injury. Yahoo has his Average Draft Position at 162 (14th round) with names like Zambrano, Oswalt, Kuroda and Slowey being taken around him. I think this is about right for him to be drafted. If you need to take a chance to win, you may draft him a few rounds earlier to make sure he is around. If healthy, he could be one of the games best pitchers, but he has not had good luck getting this shoulder healthy. Here are some pitchers that are available that can be inserted until Brandon is healthy: Andy Pettitte (48% owned), Clay Buchholz (44%), Paul Maholm (30%) and Shawn Marcum (22% – I like putting him on bench normally and see how he performs).

Gil Meche – Stiff Lower Back – If he is available for the start of the season, I would be surprised. This back injury could continue for a while knowing Gil and his history of injuries. In the game he was removed, he didn’t make it 56 pitches until the pain set in. Once he does start a game, you may want to sit him and see how he does. If you planned on Gil’s innings, you may want to search the waiver wire now for a replacement. Look at some of the pitcher recommended under Webb.

Chien-Ming Wang – Torn Right Shoulder – Chien-Ming is currently recovering from surgery. I don’t think he can be counted on this season, even though right now he is looking to return mid-May. He is only owned in 2% of all leagues, so when he goes officially on the DL, he can be stashed away awaiting his recovery.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Tight Back – Dice-K finally debuted this last Thursday. There was no apparent problems with this outing, but it was just his first real outing and he has been known to hide injuries before. It looks like he will begin the season on the DL, but should return within a couple of weeks if everything goes fine. Stash him on the DL, find a replacement listed above and when he does come back, maybe wait a start or two to see how he is pitching.

Joe Nathan – Torn Right Elbow (Ulnar Collateral Ligament) – He had surgery this past Friday and the best return date will be opening day 2011. If you are in a non-keeper league, drop him. In a keeper league, I may stash him on DL in a AL-only or deep league. Hopefully you will be able to find a few keepers better than an injured Nathan, maybe not. For replacements, it looks like Jon Rauch will be getting the first crack at saves in Minnesota with Matt Guerrier next in line if Jon can’t cut it. Some relievers that are available that should get some saves are Chris Perez (46% owned), Matt Capps (43%) and Matt Lindstrom (31%).

Wednesday night I participated in a 12-team NL-only auction in a challenge run by Dave Gawron of RotoCommunity.com. This was part of a three-team competition among various fantasy sites, which included a mixed league as well as an AL-only squad.

The competition was tough and I have no illusions about winning this league. My main hope is not to sink the hopes of the other two teams for the site I was representing.

I went in with the plan of not paying more than $30 for any player. I was going to punt AVG and put a little more money towards pitching. My goal was to have a strong OF and end up with two closers. I ended up with the following team:

Ryan Doumit – $13
Jason Castro – $1
Adam Dunn – $25
Clint Barmes – $10
Troy Glaus – $14
Stephen Drew – $17
Rafael Furcal – $9
Mark DeRosa – $11
Jason Bay – $26
Michael Bourn – $19
Nate McLouth – $16
Chris Young – $8
Scott Hairston – $1
Justin Maxwell – $4
Luke Gregerson – $1
Jason Marquis – $2
Tim Hudson – $6
Jorge de la Rosa – $9
Ubaldo Jimenez – $21
Brandon Webb – $10
Heath Bell – $16
Felipe Paulino – $2
Chad Qualls – $18

Best buys – McLouth, Hudson, Bell
Worst buys – Glaus, Glaus, Qualls
Cautiously optimistic – Young, Webb
Fingers crossed – Barmes, Bourn

I was surprised both at how quickly the big boys were nominated and how much money was spent early in this auction. My first five buys – Bay, Dunn, Bourn, Jimenez and Bell – were ones I had valued differently than others, as I had them going for more, while seemingly everyone else purchased early went above where I thought they would.

It seemed like everything was going as planned. I was waiting for prices to drop in the middle and then I was going to scoop up the bargains. But for me those bargains never materialized. All of the guys I was targeting went for more money than I was prepared to bid. Then I found myself in a bad place – plenty of money and no one at key positions to spend it on.

Two days later I still can’t believe the money I spent on Glaus. I was hoping for Mark Reynolds but he was too expensive. I thought Casey Blake was too pricey at $11 but that was a bargain compared to what I was left holding. Even Chipper Jones would have been a better buy. Let’s just move on.

The other thing I wish I had done differently was spend on relievers early. Seemingly there was no premium on high-end closers but near the end, everyone started bidding up the third and fourth-tier guys. The owner who snagged Francisco Rodriguez at $15 did a lot better than the rest of us. While I paid too much for Qualls, I don’t think it was a crippling blow.

The middle infielders I ended up with were very surprising. I was targeting Phillips, Uggla or Weeks but each went for more money than I was expecting. Uggla went for $18 and I wish I had tried $19. But if Barmes holds on to the position, he could be a nice addition. I can live with the AVG if he puts up another 20 HR season.

Drew was a guy I thought was going to have a big year in 2009, so hopefully he comes through here one year later. I did not expect to pay $9 for my MI, but I thought that was a nice value for Furcal. Ryan Theriot went for $15 and Alcides Escobar for $17.

Generally, I am not a McLouth fan, but he is much more appealing when AVG is a lesser concern. The one thing I did right in the auction was to nominate Corey Hart immediately after I won McLouth. Hart ended up going for the same $16, which seems crazy to me. Nor am I a big Young fan. But he is only 26 and I am hoping that his production after he was recalled from the minors last year is indicative of what he will give in 2010.

Times have changed when a fantasy owner is happy about having two SP for the Rockies but I like both of these guys. The key for me is how soon Webb can return to the mound. If he only misses a month and comes back at 90 percent of what he was, then I will be happy.

I would prefer to have less risk (Doumit, Barmes, Glaus, Webb) and more upside but at the same time a little risk is a good thing. Now that it is over, my goal is to pull at least 75 points with this team. Do you think that is realistic?

Since we are getting dangerously close to draft day in most leagues, there are probably a lot of questions going around. In an effort to help you, the reader, get ready for draft day, I am giving you a chance to get your questions answered today.

Not only will I be answering your questions, but some of my RotoGraphs colleagues may be stopping in today to give their spin. However, there are some guidelines for how this will go. All questions won’t be answered, but any reasonable question asked in the comments of this post today will be answered. What makes a question reasonable? Glad you asked.

A reasonable question would be something like “Who would you rather have, Matt Holliday or Nick Markakis?” A bad question would be “Who would you rather have, Albert Pujols or Adam Moore?” There is a huge grey area, but I’m a fairly forgiving person and will probably answer your question, as long as I don’t feel you are wasting my time.

Questions don’t just have to be in “Player X vs. Player Y” form (though I bet most of them will be). You can ask about any relevant fantasy topic, from draft day etiquette to anything else on your mind, it will likely be answered.

So, let’s get to it! Any questions?

– Huston Street will be starting the year on the DL, which isn’t a good sign for those of you who decided to select him as a keeper. He had problems with tightness in his shoulder over the past month, and had an MRI done yesterday. Street hasn’t had shoulder problems in the past, so this isn’t too much of a concern. Still, a closer with arm troubles is hard to judge, because missing a few weeks could mean losing their job. I doubt Street will lose his gig, but keep an eye on him.

– The big ball of power known as Mat Gamel has had a hard time recovering from a sore shoulder. Gamel entered spring hoping to win the third base job, but now I’d bet that Casey McGehee will start the year with the job. McGehee may not hit .300 again, but 15 homers and a .275 average are reasonable expectations. McGehee is eligible at second and third base, and is currently the 210th player off the board according to Mock Draft Central.

– A’s closer Andrew Bailey is going to sit out for a couple days due to elbow soreness. Bailey’s rookie campaign was helped by a .234 BABIP against, but his strong strikeout and walk numbers should translate over to 2010.

– Dustin McGowan pitched two innings in a simulated game this week, and the Jays still don’t have a timetable for his return. McGowan had a good 2007 and a decent 2008, but since his progress has been slow he is no longer draftable even in the deepest of leagues with a DL spot.

– Placido Polanco suffered a sprained right knee earlier in the week, and he hopes to return to action tomorrow.

– Rick Ankiel’s ankle is starting to become a legitimate concern for the Royals, and he isn’t likely to play until Sunday, at the earliest.

Usually we try to give you information to put together a good fantasy baseball team. But last night I participated in a draft where the idea is to put together the worst fantasy baseball squad. Yes, you read that right. In Razzball, the idea is to put together a team of stiffs, preferably ones that stink up the joint for the entire season.

This was my first time playing Razzball. I felt like I owed it to Rudy after I used his Point Share Ratings so often. Plus, this year they have teamed up with DreamMaker Spas and SpaDepot.com to award the overall winner a spa valued at over $3,000. I can be bought and this meets my price.

Unfortunately, the draft for Razzball came at a most inopportune time. I just got back from a week in Arizona and not only did I have some nice jet lag going on, but I also came home to a sick 4-year old who decided to spend the night and day throwing up. Good times, although not one that lent itself to studying for a draft to pick terrible players.

My strategy was to focus on hitters and draft players from the Royals and Pirates. I ended up with this team:

Rick Ankiel
Scott Podsednik
Yuniesky Betancourt
Jason Kendall
Martin Prado
Brendan Harris
Kosuke Fukudome
Andy LaRoche
Garrett Jones
Corey Hart
Ryan Sweeney
Orlando Hudson
Armando Galarraga
Manny Parra
Kevin Millwood
Brett Myers
J.D. Martin
David Huff
Vin Mazzaro
Billy Buckner
Freddy Garcia
Geoff Blum
Jamey Carroll
Anderson Hernandez
Fernando Nieve
Mat Gamel
Eugenio Velez

Clearly, this is not a good team. But I have no idea if it is truly Razzball bad. I like the versatility offered by Prado, Harris, Jones, Blum, Carroll, Hernandez and Velez. Prado may seem like a weird pick, but he’s eligible at first base and the league is set up to award players who do not hit HR. The scoring is as follows:

At Bats (AB) 2 Runs (R) -4 Hits (H) -3 Home Runs (HR) -6 Runs Batted In (RBI) -4 Strikeouts (K) 2
Innings Pitched (IP) -1 Losses (L) 8 Hits (H) 1 Earned Runs (ER) 1.5 Home Runs (HR) 4 Walks (BB) 1 Strikeouts (K) -1

According to Razzball, “The point structure makes it so that about 2/3 of the league’s hitters as well as just about every pitcher has positive value. So leaving a roster spot open or filled by a guy who plays once a week will hurt your team.” Also the innings are capped at 1,250 so I’ll have to find some poor middle relievers on the waiver wire during the year.

It was fun thinking about fantasy in a completely different way. It will also be nice to have a reason now to check the boxscores for the Royals. May all of my KC guys come up with 500-plus ABs!

Imagine stumbling on this headline without prior knowledge of fantasy baseball. It would take quite a bit of explaining to understand that this piece will be about the starting pitchers from this list that have the best value vis-a-vis their draft position. Good thing most of you are ahead of the curve on that one.

The easiest way to find value in a tier is to just go ahead and pick the guy with the lowest ADP in the tier, and lo and behold, Dan Haren (40.24 ADP) is that guy for me in the first mini-tier. At first, there seems to be no negative in taking Haren in the early fourth round given his stature among the elite SP1s. For three straight years, he’s had an ERA below 3.33, a WHIP below 1.21, a walk rate below 1.8 per nine, and a strikeout rate over 8 per nine. Thank you, thank you, thank you and thank you. I know the cutoffs are a little random, but guess how many other starting pitchers in baseball have managed that sort of sustained excellence over the past three years. Yeah. None.

Let me stop you yeahbutters right now. I know what you’re saying. In 651 Pre-All-Star innings, Haren has a 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 7.45 K/9. In 575 Post-All-Star innings, he has 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 7.76 K/9. Those innings seem significant. I understand the yeahbutting. Here’s my rubber and your glue: Haren’s xFIP by month, career: 3.82, 3.72, 3.73, 3.54, 3.37, 3.64. I don’t see a problem here. Maybe give him a tick forward in roto leagues and a tick backward in H2H leagues where he may or may not disappear for your playoffs. But otherwise, if you want a pitcher in the first four rounds, Haren is your value.

The lowest ADP of the next tier predictably belongs to Chris Carpenter (72.73 ADP) and his elbow and shoulder held together by twine and adhesive. You’re getting a discount because of all that risk. But why should you get a discount for picking Jon Lester (58.95 ADP)? The cancer scare was a long time ago. His career strikeout rate (7.85 K/9) belies his true talent level, as a surge (9.96 K/9 last year) brought him to the top of the leaderboard in that category. Admittedly, there was some question about his walk rate (3.8 BB/9,1.31 WHIP in the minor leagues), but now he’s kept it under three for two straight years (2.82 and 2.83) and seems to have answered the question. He even had a poor BABIP last year (.323), so if he puts that elite strikeout rate together with better luck on the batted ball and the same nice walk rate – watchout hardware.

The last tier features a pitcher that is the subject of more than a few mancrushes. David G declared him an ace last year, Ray Flowers at Fanball.com likes him as an early second pitcher, John Halpin at Fox Sports thinks a gaudy win total is coming, Paul Bourdett claims to have liked him before he blew up, and you can check my Second Opinion graph for proof that I like the beanpole Rockie ace. Here’s a taste: Ubaldo Jimenez (100.58 ADP) has had better than 50% ground balls for two years in a row, and in the last two years he has improved his strikeout and walk rates each time. His fastball, slider and change all gave the Rox better than 9.6 runs in weighted value, and batters have an especially tough time with his changeup (23.2% whiff rate) and slider (19% whiff rate). He’s 26, burns worms, has nasty stuff that gets whiffs and comes cheaply. Does it get any better?

– Alex Gordon broke his thumb, and will miss the next 3-4 weeks. The once highly touted prospect has struggled in the bigs, coming in at -3.3 batting runs for his career. He was likely to put up a solid 2010 campaign, but his injury could hurt his playing time. If the newly acquired Josh Fields plays well in spring training action, he might be able to sneak in and steal the third base job. However, it is more likely that Fields and Gordon will simply platoon, with Fields seeing time against southpaws.

– Dodgers catcher Russell Martin has a pulled groin, according to MRI’s, and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. Martin was in line for a nice bounceback season, with all of the projection systems having him hitting around .273 with 12 homers, and double digit steals. But, a leg injury could make him timid at the plate and could stop him from running as much. Leg injuries always scare me with catchers, and this is no exception. A.J. Ellis will get time in Martin’s absence, but he isn’t important, as his value is as close to zero as you can possibly imagine.

– As you’ve probably heard, Angel Guzman’s career is in question after suffering a major tear in a ligament “near his armpit”, as well as shoulder problems. He plans to have surgery and attempt to come back from his injury, but he wouldn’t be available to pitch this season. Guzman was looking to be the setup man in Chicago this year, and had value as a handcuff to Carlos Marmol, and even more value in Holds leagues. Now it appears that John Grabow is likely to get more high leverage innings, and the Cubs are going to go searching for a new right handed setup man on the trade market.

– Jeff Francis returned to action Friday, after not pitching since September 12 or 2008. Francis isn’t a fantastic fantasy pitcher, but he is a nice source of wins if he’s healthy.

– Josh Hamilton has a bruised left shoulder, and is trying to work his way back. He went 2-3 and scored a run in a spring training game on Monday.

– In other Dodger news, third baseman Casey Blake had to be pulled out of the team’s game on Monday, due to a strained rib-cage muscle. The prognosis is unclear, but it doesn’t appear to be anything serious and the club just wants to be careful.

There is no greater intersection of fantasy and ‘real’ baseball analysis than the Spring Position Battle. How better to reap the rewards of good number-crunching than the correct prediction of the winner of the lion’s share of playing time at a given position? It’s one of fantasy baseball’s best moments.

And there’s no easier place to look for this feeling than the worst teams in baseball. The worse the team, the younger the team, the more likely they’ll allow an inexperienced young man to steer the helm at a given position. The Pirates, for example, currently have 30(!) players with three years or fewer experience on their 40-man roster.

Follow this string of thought to the end, and you’ll inevitably end up looking at the team being run by the worst GM in baseball (if Tim Marchman is to be believed). There might be some debate about whether or not it’s more important to feature your best players up the middle, but it’s got to be a given that it’s not a good sign to go into camp not knowing who is going to make up your keystone combo. (The name of that combo should really be a clue.)

So we come to the Royals. At the incumbent starting shortstop position stands Yuniesky Betancourt. By WAR, he was the worst position player that qualified for the batting title last year, costing the Royals $2.2 million on top of his $3.375 million salary. He accomplished this (little) feat by walking only 4.1% of the time while also displaying below-average speed (3.9 speed score, 5.0 average) and power (.106 ISO, .155 MLB average). The worst part for such a ‘key’ defensive position? He had a -23.9 UZR/150 last year, which would be less worrisome if he didn’t also feature a negative rating for his career. I’m struggling to find something good to say, but apparently his demeanor can be even worse than his performance.

Let’s just say he doesn’t offer too much of an obstacle, should, say, Mike Aviles step to the fore. Aviles was once a too-old for his leagues prospect that tore his way through to the major leagues with good contact rates and not much else. He was once over-rated, yes, but now seems under-rated. His injury hurt his good contact rates (90.7% in the zone down to 85.6% last year) and sapped his average power (.155 ISO down to .067 last year). As exhibits in his favor, I submit his minor league ISO (.167) as well as minor league walk and strikeout rates that were virtually identical to his rookie year numbers. Aviles may not have been as good as he looked his rookie year, but he wasn’t as bad as he was last year.

In defense of his defense, there’s no real evidence that it’s terrible, despite the fact that he’s played all over the diamond and his general manager had the (misguided) idea that he needed to acquire another shortstop. His UZR/150 was great in his rookie year (+31.6 UZR/150) and bad last year (-12.7 UZR/150), but Total Zone had him as a positive defender at shortstop in the minors. The Fan Scouting Report pegged him as better than Betancourt even in his poor ’09. Aviles scored better than his competitor/teammate in every category… but arm strength. And now he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, we must consider the case of Cesar Izturis, who had TJ surgery in 2005 and last year the fans say he sported an arm that was a little better than Stephen Drew‘s and a little worse than Jason Bartlett’s. Izturis had surgery on 9/16/2005 and returned in mid-June 2006. Aviles had his surgery 9/07/2009.

The normal caveats apply. This is is the Royals, we have no idea what’s going on at second base with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz (a post for another time), and every recovering arm is different, but in the interest of being unequivocal: By mid-June Mike Aviles should be starting at shortstop for the Royals.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

The series perseveres! Here are the first two pitching tiers, otherwise known as SP1 and SP2. Remember that the arrow represents how they got here (last year’s movement) and not necessarily their long-term trend.

SP3 is where the wheat separates from the chaff, and everybody has to take a risk. The first sub-tier has some pitchers that look like first or second tier starting pitchers (if you squint just right). There’s really a lot to like about Matt Garza since his strikeout rate and contact percentages got dramatically better last year. His improvement has pushed him ahead of James Shields, who is still relying on that nice changeup and pinpoint control, and just needs that blip in the home run rate to correct. Scott Baker comes ready-made with a great WHIP and could finally put a nice ERA with it if the home run rate comes back down. Rich Harden moved up in the ranks by showing a (relatively) healthy year, as did Tim Hudson with his nice (though slightly punch-less) return. John Danks is still only 24 years old, and though there are warts, he’s shown the ability to improve before. He could do it again.

Unfortunately, that’s just about where the top-shelfers end. What remains are pitchers that have been so over-rated that they’ve once again become under-rated, and some interesting young pitchers that have all the risk inherent with young starters. Ted Lilly used to be under-rated, then he had a great year and was over-rated, and then he had some surgery and became under-rated again (got that?). If he falls to this level, he’s got to be a value again. Kevin Slowey is like Lilly-redux, really, with his okay strikeout rates, nice WHIPs, and now his own comeback from surgery. Gavin Floyd did some things right and some things wrong, and has some nice upside but plays in a tough park to sustain that home run rate from last year. Jered Weaver just keeps on outperforming his xFIPs by giving up tons of flyballs without the corresponding home runs (around an 8% HR/FB career), but good luck predicting if he’s going to have a sub-4 ERA or not. Max Scherzer is young, wild, interesting and moving to the tougher league. I personally have an (unhealthy) man-crush on Wade Davis, but as always I remind myself that there’s inevitably a period of correction with every young pitcher, and I pledge to (try to) wait as long as I can before I pick him.

The last sub-tier (the “Hold Your Nose” tier) features a couple of veterans that once were considered top-shelfers but have shown their warts. A.J. Burnett and Carlos Zambrano have both been big-strikeout pitchers in the past, and both have shown that their wildness and arm issues will keep them from being elite for the forseeable future. Call Zambrano Little Z (and then run like heck), or perhaps even the “NL version of AJ.” Ryan Dempster rode the Ted Lilly roller coaster but seems like a steady investment for last year’s return. J.A. Happ got lucky last year (and finds himself in a tough park for the upcoming season). He deserves to drop, no doubt about it. But this tier also serves as a reminder – you can’t have a blindspot because you hate (or love) a player. At some point, any player can become a value once again.

Ironically for a person that loves fantasy baseball, my record-keeping is not always fantastic. I thought it might be useful to gather all my ADP Values in one post as a sort of (incomplete) sleeper list, while also adding (zingy) recaps of the reasons behind their values, as well as the newest ADPs that are available around the interwebbings. This will also help remind me what positions I have left to cover in the series (everyone wins!).

*Player (MockDraftCentral ADP, Yahoo ADP)

Catcher
Brian McCann (43.85, 39.6)
(Cheapest top-tier catcher with power.)
Miguel Montero (145.07, 175.7)
(Montero could easily repeat his strong 2009 and join the top rungs.)
Chris Iannetta (175.47, 194.2)
(Iannetta could use a little BABIP love, but the power is legit enough.)
A.J. Pierzynski (250.92, 201.4)
(He can be average, for a below-average price.)
Adam Moore (NA, NA)
(Moore might start in Seattle and has upside, but no experience.)
J.R. Towles (NA, NA)
(Can Towles finally post a league-average BABIP and be a decent backstop this year?)

First Base
Chris Davis (161.42, 229.6)
(Haven’t done the ADP Value piece for this position, so these are the deep leaguers, and Davis is the whiff/bomb king.)
Jorge Cantu (172.12, 153.7)
(He can, too, but this price is slowly getting a little too rich.)
Lyle Overbay (407.40, NA)
(The ‘other’ James Loney, at least Over-baby is cheap.)

Second Base
Ben Zobrist (57.82, 42.6)
(Originally in the shortstop piece, Zobrist is a better sleeper at short, but only eligible at 2B in many leagues.)
Dan Uggla (85.98, 75.8)
(If you’re going to pay for a second baseman, why not take one with a near-guaranteed .200+ ISO?)
Rickie Weeks (199.48 (up from 212.37), 108.4)
(This looks like some rankings bias right here – I would avoid Weeks at the Yahoo price.)
Martin Prado (259.51, 195.6)
(Prado is a good deep league value, but he’s still borderline in mixed leagues.)
Placido Polanco (256.43, 192.6)
(Submitted by reader Will, and approved, in a comeback from being overrated in fantasy.)
Kelly Johnson (321.58, NA)
(If you really, really don’t want to pay for your second baseman, has a chance to be decent once again.)
Alberto Callaspo (333.13, 224.7) / Chris Getz (NA, NA)
(Somewhere in here is a decent starting second baseman in deep leagues, but you may have to handcuff.)

Shortstop
Elvis Andrus (152.63, 115.40)
(That Texas lineup will be scooting around the basepaths this year, and Andrus should benefit. As his ADP creeps up, though, the value shifts to the other speedy shortstops.)
Ryan Theriot (276.70, 197.5)
(Theriot manages to be okay in batting average leagues and could be a deep league value.)
Everth Cabrera (244.91, 266.1)
(Which low-powered speedy shortstop will you take? This one is the bet for the worst batting average.)
Alcides Escobar (267.54, 207.1)
(Deep-league value approved, the other other Esco will offer some speed at least.)
Mike Aviles (334.65, NA)
(AL-only endgame shot in the dark only has the worst position player in baseball to beat out.)

Third Base
Ryan Zimmerman (34.20 (up from 39.78), 37.7)
(Surprisingly weak third base class plus emerging young player equals value.)
Gordon Beckham (92.54, 138.20)
(Yahoo seems to provide better value, and even 600 at-bats of last year’s version would outproduce this pick.)
Adrian Beltre (192.50, 168.1)
(New park and good health could make for a nice bounce-back season.)
Alex Gordon (241.64, 217.6)
(Was making progress before his injury-derailed 2009 season.)
David Freese (332.31, NA)
(Still all alone on the hot corner in St. Louis.)

Outfield
Grady Sizemore (28.97, 26.9)
(Injury comeback will remind Grady’s Ladies to come back to the park.)
Curtis Granderson (50.18, 55.4)
(Nice new park, bounce-back average will combine for a good year.)
Manny Ramirez (64.88, 87)
(How old is too old?)
Carlos Gonzalez (123.79, 139.4)
(The hype train continues.)
Nyjer Morgan (131.25 ,178)
(Or perhaps the new Morgan, Brett Gardner (330.04, NA)?)
Nolan Reimold (203.88, 194.88)
(He should heel.)
Colby Rasmus (215.97, NA)
(There are questions here, but lots of upside here.)
Travis Snider (255.88, NA)
(Big power, big whiffa, big value at the price.)
J.D. Drew (297.07, NA)
(Still best as a fourth/fifth fantasy outfielder, Drew can still poke it out of the park from time to time.)
Drew Stubbs (311.23, NA)
(Deep league value for steals.)
Kyle Blanks (318.98, NA)
(Big, big Blanks is shooting nothing but moon-shots and sparks from his afro this year.)
Matt LaPorta (327.73, NA)
(A little subdued by recent news – the Russell Branyan signing, but still a good sleeper.)