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Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (owned in 17% of Yahoo! leagues)

Before the start of the season, Fans projected Davis to notch 11 Wins, a 3.93 ERA and 149 Ks. Last year John Lackey had 11 Wins, a 3.83 ERA and 139 Ks, and that was good enough to earn him a 5-year, $82.5 million contract and a 93% roster rate in Yahoo!

Davis got off to a rough start, as he allowed 7 H and 4 ER in 6 IP against the Yankees in his 2010 season debut. But his velocity was good, his mix of pitches was very similar to last season and his batted ball profile was right in line with his 2009 results, too. The one thing that stands out was that Davis had 4 BB and 3 Ks. Last year he had a 2.77 K/BB ratio. But it was the Yankees he was facing, a team known for its plate discipline.

The three previous years, Davis has earned a mid-season promotion each year. In 2007, he split time between Hi-A and Double-A. In 2008 it was Double-A and Triple-A while last year it was Triple-A and the majors. Davis was 16-9 with a 3.55 ERA in Double-A and 14-10 with a 3.23 ERA in Triple-A.

This is one of the top young pitchers in the game. Do not let one disappointing start against the Yankees cloud what he has done the past two years and what everyone projected him to do coming into the season. Davis remains a pitcher who should give a league average ERA with the chance to hit double-digit Wins and a K/9 rate around 7.

Jason Hammel, Colorado Rockies (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Crowded out in Tampa Bay, Hammel was picked up by the Rockies last year in exchange for Aneury Rodriguez and turned in a 10-win season. The key for Hammel last year was that he had a sparkling 3.17 K/BB ratio, which tied with Johan Santana for the 23rd-best mark in baseball. This led to a FIP (3.71) and an xFIP (3.81) lower than his ERA (4.33), even with a below-average HR/FB rate.

Can Hammel keep his BB/9 rate near last year’s 2.14 mark? Probably not, but Hammel showed good control in the minors, with a lifetime 2.8 BB/9 in six seasons, so his command should still be an asset. Along with his command, Hammel gets a decent number of ground balls and has a 6.38 K/9 lifetime in the majors.

At the very least, Hammel is a guy to target for his road starts. Last year he had a 5.73 ERA in Coors and a 3.13 ERA on the road. He allowed 12 HR at home and only 5 on the road. His first start in 2010 came at home, where he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP for a 5.14 ERA.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 3 % of Yahoo! leagues)

The mad dash should be on to acquire Snyder, who takes over for the injured Miguel Montero as the starting catcher. Snyder has some injury problems of his own, after undergoing back surgery last year. But when healthy, Snyder offers the promise of good power from the catching position. He hit 13 HR in 326 ABs in 2007 and 16 HR in 334 ABs in 2008.

Unfortunately, along with that power comes some low AVG. He has a lifetime .234 mark in the majors. And as you might imagine, Snyder offers nothing in terms of SB, as he has yet to record his first steal. But with the starting job his for at least the next month, Snyder immediately becomes an attractive option. Montero has a torn meniscus, which has a recovery time of at least four weeks. And if they find ligament damage when he undergoes surgery, he could miss the remainder of the season.

Josh Wilker’s Cardboard Gods is the autobiography of a misfit told with the aid of his childhood baseball card collection. It is also a terrific book that you should rush out and buy immediately.

Wait, who wants to read the life story of a misfit?

Well, you will like this book if you fall into any of the following categories:

1. You like baseball.
2. You have fond memories of opening up a pack of baseball cards.
3. You remember the 1970s.
4. You have a brother who played a big role in your life.
5. Your family did not resemble Ozzie and Harriet or the Huxtables.
6. You are a fan of good writing.

Cardboard Gods starts off in 1973, when Wilker went from having two parents to three. This is where it helps if you remember the 1970s. But even if you do not, Wilker explains the circumstances of how he went from having a mom and dad to having a mom, a dad and a Tom. Eventually his family moves to Vermont, where you think people would be more accepting of a liberal lifestyle, but for young Wilker his childhood was anything but easy.

And the rest of the book is about his life, and how both baseball and baseball cards played a pivotal role in his ability to cope. It is a story that is hard to imagine happening today, yet still contains the timeless ingredients of sibling love, parental alienation, loneliness, failure and redemption. It is every bit as much of a family memoir as it is about baseball cards.

And baseball is found on every page. There are over 50 baseball cards (and a basketball one!) depicted in the book and each card, whether it be a star like Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson or Tom Seaver, or a stiff like Rudy Meoli or Carmen Fanzone, serves as the jumping off point for another episode of Wilker’s life.

In 2006, Wilker started his own Web site, where he pulled a card from his collection, which mainly ran from 1975-1980, and wrote about it. These entries could be about the card, the player or Wilker’s life. Frequently they were about all three. The descriptions were spot on and the writing was clever. And while the initial hook was a chance to reconnect with some old baseball cards, what kept readers coming back again and again was the other stuff.

His site became a must-visit for a large number of people, who all wanted the same thing – a bigger audience for the author. Time and time again, people would express their joy in reading Wilker’s work and ask him when the book was coming out. One of the great things about Wilker is his willingness to engage with his audience. He let us know that he wanted to write a book, too. He just needed a publisher.

Seven Footer Press stepped to the plate. The full title of the book is Cardboard Gods: An All-American Tale Told Through Baseball Cards. The book is an extension of the Web site, meaning that Wilker uses the cards from his childhood to tell a story, his story. He has rewritten earlier posts and come up with new entries and the end result is a fascinating story that becomes impossible to put down.

How good is the story? Eventually you stop caring about the baseball cards on the pages. Well, that’s not entirely true. At the beginning of the book, you are drawn to the cards for a visual clue as to what to expect on the following pages. By the end of the book, you skip over the card because the story has zoomed past the part of needing visuals. Instead, you turn back to see the card that started the latest episode.

Who wants to read the life story of a misfit? On the contrary, who wants to read the life story of an average guy? In Leo Tolstoy’s The Death of Ivan Ilyich we are asked the question of what is a “good” life. The pull quote from the story is: “Ivan Ilyich’s life had been most simple and most ordinary and therefore most terrible.”

Wilker’s life has been neither simple nor ordinary. And while I have no doubt that during parts of his existence he would have described his life as terrible, Cardboard Gods is ultimately a story of triumph. When Rob Neyer sings your praises, as he does on the cover, you know you have done something right.

The 243-page book goes on sale nationwide on April 12th with a list price of $24.95. You can order online from the usual places. Members at Barnes and Noble can buy it for $17.96 while it can be purchased at Amazon for $16.47.

Those looking for more information on Wilker and what to expect from the book should check out his Web site. And for even more information, you can view this Q&A I did with him back in 2008.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Brad Penny, St. Louis Cardinals (owned in 15% of Yahoo leagues)

Jeff Zimmerman briefly mentioned Penny last week, noting Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan’s Midas Touch in helping pitching retreads return to form.

Penny’s 2008 season was wrecked by shoulder problems, and in 2009 he posted rates of 5.66 K/9, 2.65 BB/9 and a 4.56 expected FIP (xFIP) between Boston and San Francisco. His actual ERA was three-tenths of a run higher, due mostly to a lower-than-usual rate of stranding base runners (67.1 percent in ’09, compared to a 71.1% career average). Happily, his fastball velocity returned to the 94 MPH range, after sitting at 92 MPH in 2008. Penny inked a one-year, $7.5 million deal with St. Louis back in December.

In his first start for the Cardinals on April 8th, Penny pitched seven strong innings against the Reds. He allowed one run and six hits, striking out four and walking two. Penny induced 13 groundball outs, compared to four of the fly ball variety.

We shouldn’t try to glean too much from one start, but Penny seemed to be pitching differently. For most of his career, the burly right-hander has reared back and fired four-seam fastballs nearly 70 percent of the time. Against the Reds, however, Penny often threw a high-80’s pitch with plenty of sinking and tailing action. His Pitch F/X page classifies most of them as changeups, but the pitch was thrown harder and had more drop than Penny’s typical changeups.

They sure look like sinkers to me, and that jives with this spring training report that Penny was working with Duncan to develop a sinker. Keep an eye on Penny’s pitch selection the next time he toes the rubber.

Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks (16%)

Johnson’s 2009 campaign with the Braves looks terrible on the surface. He hit .224/.303/.389 in 346 plate appearances, losing his second base job to Martin Prado. By September, Johnson was relegated to pinch-hit duty and official odds-maker on Bobby Cox’s next ejection.

However, the new D-Back didn’t really slip from his 2008 level of play. Johnson walked in 8.5 percent of his PA in ’08, and 9.2 percent in ’09. He whiffed 20.7 percent in ’08, and 17.8 percent in ’09. Johnson’s ISO was slightly higher in 2009 (.165, compared to .159 in ’08). The major difference in his line was a plummeting BABIP: Johnson got hits on balls put in play 34 percent of the time in 2008, but just 24.7 percent in 2009.

That .247 BABIP is bound to rise this season: his career mark is .310, and all of the projection systems call for a BABIP between .310 and .318. Johnson figures to hit something closer to his career .265/.347/.434 triple-slash in 2010, and he could top that considering Chase Field’s accommodating dimensions for hitters. He’s well worth owning in NL-only leagues, and isn’t a bad option in deep mixed leagues, either.

Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds (27%)

Just how good of a hitter Stubbs will be in the long term remains up for debate. The 25 year-old authored a career .269/.364/.401 line in the minors, including a .268/.353/.360 showing last year at Triple-A Louisville. The former Longhorn has a good eye at the plate (11.9 percent walk rate in the minors). But his power (.132 ISO) and contact skills (27.2 K%) elicit mild projections from CHONE (.251/.328/.380) and ZiPS (.235/.305/.348).

While Stubbs might never be a top-shelf batter, he could be plenty useful in fantasy leagues if he gets on base at a decent clip. That’s because the 6-4, 205 pound center fielder can fly. Stubbs swiped 46 bags in 54 attempts in Triple-A last season (an 85 percent success rate), and his career minor league stolen base success rate is 77.1 percent. NL-only players searching for SBs should give Stubbs a spin.

Welcome to our first installment of the Deep Keepers series at RotoGraphs. Today, we’ll take a quick peek at four prospects who had impressive minor league Opening Day performances last night.

Mike Montgomery | LHP | Kansas City Royals: With young pitchers Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar rolling along in Kansas City right now, Montgomery has the next highest ceiling in the organization (sorry, Aaron Crow). The left-hander had a dazzling 2010 debut against Atlanta’s high-A affiliate and he allowed just two hits and one walk in 5.0 innings of work. He struck out six batters and induced six ground-ball outs.

Randall Delgado | RHP | Atlanta Braves: Montgomery’s opponent on Thursday night, Delgado was equally as impressive and he allowed just three hits and did not walk a batter in 5.0 innings. He struck out five hitters and saw seven balls scooped up his infield defense. Just 20, Delgado has good fastball velo, solid control for his age, and does a good job of getting ground-ball outs. There is some thought that Delgado may be destined for a bullpen job at the MLB level, but I think he can stick in the starting rotation.

Ike Davis | 1B | New York Mets: As we mentioned in our most recent Podcast on the FanGraphs side (available today), Mike Jacobs and Daniel Murphy are not the long-term answers at first base for the New York Mets. They’re just not first division first basemen. Davis, though, could be… especially if he keeps tapping into his power. After failing to hit a home run in his ’08 debut, he slammed 20 last season split between high-A and double-A. The former No. 1 draft pick also just missed ending the season with a .300 batting average. While his teammates struggled during Opening Night 2010, Davis went 3-for-4 and slugged two doubles. He represented 50% of the team’s hits and he was the only Buffalo player that got an extra-base hit.

Brad Emaus | 2B/3B | Toronto Blue Jays: Emaus opened a lot of eyes this spring and actually stuck around camp longer than expected. He’s opening the 2010 season back in double-A, which is where he spent all of ’09. Emaus is being asked to play more third base this season because of the much clearer opening at the MLB level (Aaron Hill is at second, signed to a long-term deal). The infielder does not have more than 15-homer power, but he should hit for a good average with gap power and can even steal five to 10 bases. He also has some versatility that could help out a fantasy roster.

ESPN has a nice feature that shows which players are being added and dropped in all their leagues. Here is a look at the top pitchers and hitters being added and dropped.

Hitters

Kyle Blanks (57.5% owned, +15.5% increase) – Kyle is just getting noticed in fantasy and is a great reserve OF in small leagues or decent starter in NL-only and larger leagues. He should hit 20+ home runs with around a 0.270 average.

Colby Rasmus (66.5, +14.9%) – Great upside and people seem to be picking him up. Colby also has the chance to hit 20+ home runs also.

Miguel Tejada (73.8%, +14.6%) – Though I don’t like him as a starter, there is no reason for him not to be on a bench, especially with the 3B qualification coming soon.

Alex Gordon (31.2%, -40.6%) – Alex’s trip to the DL has caused a huge sell off. Buy low here. He should be back within the month, so if you have some DL spots available, stash him there.

Corey Hart (71.1%, -12.0%) – Corey value is down because he now seems to be platooning with Jim Edmonds. Corey looks to be starting against LHP only.

Chris Young (42.0%, -6.3%) – Not sure why the sell off. Maybe there are just better and more consistent options available.

Pitchers

Matt Lindstrom (59.9%, +40.5%) – Get the closer nod of Lyons has pushed him up quickly

Francisco Liriano (96.4%, +26.9%) – Looks like Francisco should no longer be available in any league. He is not close to a sure thing, but a chance should be taken on him. Other high risk, high reward pitchers are Ben Sheets, Fausto Carmona and Ervin Santana.

Jon Rauch (87.0%, +20.6%) – Owners sucking up Joe Nathan’s replacement.

Brandon Lyon (37.9%, -53.2%) – Lindstrom is not a lights out closer yet. Lyon will put up decent rate stats and has a good chance to take over Houston’s closer role. Buy low.

Wade Davis (64.0%, -30.9%) – The drop may be from being the 5th starter and not having as many starts. Pitchers will get injured and he will get his share of starts. Buy low again.

Joba Chamberlain (33%, -12.9%) – Joba should be picked up immediately if available. Can fill in a SP slot when starter not going and provide some good rates stats. Yes, buy low again.

Fantasy managers are no doubt already beginning to panic. Don’t fee bad, I’m currently 10th overall in a 10-team mixed (auction) league. If you’re already combing the waiver wire for help (mind you, it’s far too early to panic), there is some potential value to be found. Add these players to your watch lists if they’re not already there.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Toronto (8% owned)
Thankfully in fantasy baseball we don’t have to put up with Encarnacion’s brutal glove, which has already seen him make two errors in as many games. Still just 27, the third baseman has 25+ home run power and the Jays offense around him should be pretty good (it’s the pitching we really have to worry about). His batting average hasn’t been anything special over the past two seasons, but he’s also posted low BABIPs of .264 and .245 so there is plenty of room for improvement in that area. An average walk rate of 10.6% over the past two seasons suggests that Encarnacion has a pretty good eye at the plate and he’s shown a reasonable rate of strikeout in his career (for his power output).

J.J. Hardy | SS | Minnesota (21%)
One bad season all is forgotten in fantasy baseball. Hardy slugged 24 or more home runs in both ’07 and ’08 but slipped to 11 last season and also spent time in the minors. That was still good for the 12th most homers by a shortstop in the Majors in ’09; he has a chance to be more valuable in 2010 than some other ’09 shortstops such as Alexei Ramirez (2.2), Miguel Tejada (2.6), and Jason Bartlett (4.8), all of whom are owned in most leagues. Just 27, he’s poised for a rebirth in 2010 as a member of the Twins. Despite his struggles, Hardy has seen his walk rate improve each of the past three seasons.

Nick Johnson | DH | New York (23%)
I have to admit a little shock at the fact that Johnson is only owned by 23% of fantasy managers. He’s a proven veteran who just happens to be hitting at the top of a potent lineup. It must be the injury thing. I understand that but, when he’s healthy, Johnson can be a real benefit to a fantasy team in teams of runs scored and batting average. He even has 15-20 home run potential. If you’re playing in an on-base league, then you really should have the Walking Man. Johnson’s walk rate was 17.2% last season, third highest in the Majors last year and just behind Adrian Gonzalez and Adam Dunn. Interestingly, Johnson had just four intentional walks, while Gonzalez had 22 and Dunn had 16.

Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (14%)
Youth + Power arm + Cavernous Park = Potential Stud. The 22-year-old Latos appears to be one of the best kept secrets in baseball. Everyone is jumping up and down about the Stephen Strasburgs and the Tommy Hansons, but they’re overlooking this kid. The right-hander held his own in 10 big league starts for the Padres in ’09. His walk rate of 4.09 BB/9 in the Majors was a tad high but was solid in the minors… especially for his age. He also displayed positive values on three of his four pitches. If he can show a little better control and improve ground-ball rate (36.1) he will be an absolute beast.

Ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

On the days that not all of your starting pitchers (SP) are not pitching, the SP qualified reliever can be inserted and be used to rack up some strikeouts, lower rate stats and pickup a win or save here and there. Last season, J.P. Howell fit this mold perfectly. He became even more valuable when he became the full closer for the Rays. J.P. is no longer SP eligible, but here are a few players that fit the mold. All percent owned number are from Yahoo.

Joba Chamberlain (31% owned) – Probably the best SP,RP option. The Yankees are going to score some runs, so he has a great chance for some wins.

Dustin Nippert (2%) – He has not had much luck as a starter and going to the pen should help him. As Tom Tango has noted, pitchers going to the pen have an average drop in ERA of 1 point. A projected ERA for 5.13 as a starter would be 4.13 as a closer.

Robinson Tejeda (2%) – Not a good start of the season for Mr. Tejada, but he should be respectable out of the pen. Don’t look to pitch him as starter, just out as a reliever.

Chad Gaudin (1%) – I really like Chad as a reliever and is a great option. He is in line to be a starter for the A’s if needed and if he does, look to place him on the bench.

Chan Ho Park (1%) – Another pitcher that got roughed up in his first outing. He should be able to get a few wins being the relief man when the Yankee’s starter blows up and he is pitching when the Yankee’s offense retakes the lead.

Chris Narveson (1%) – Not a great reliever, but good enough in deep and NL only leagues to steal a few wins as a RP

Nate Robertson (1%) – He is now starting, but was planned to be in pen. Don’t use him unless his role changes and he moves back to pen.

Jose Contreras (0%) – I think he could be a nice sleeper. He fits into the mold of Park, where he comes in for long relief and the Phillies offense gets going enough to get him a win. Chone is projecting a decent ERA as a reliever of 3.84.

I am sure I missed a few so let other know if anyone else stands out.

At the conclusion of any season, there will be no shortage of people telling you they “knew” something unexpected was going to happen. Of course these people are incredibly silent before events have unfurled. So, I want to put down in writing a fantasy prediction for each major league team. Each of these predictions will go against the grain of conventional wisdom, since there is no point in predicting that Adam Dunn will hit a lot of HR or Mariano Rivera will notch a lot of Saves.

Arizona – Justin Upton hits under .280

Atlanta – Derek Lowe produces less fantasy value than Oliver Perez

Baltimore – Nick Markakis hits 25 HR

Boston – Tim Wakefield has an ERA over 5

Chicago (A) – Gavin Floyd notches 15 Wins

Chicago (N) – Ryan Dempster has a K/9 under 7.25

Cincinnati – Jay Bruce hits .275

Cleveland – Tony Sipp takes over as closer

Colorado – Jorge de la Rosa posts an ERA under 4.00

Detroit – Miguel Cabrera fails to reach 30 HR

Florida – Jorge Cantu tops 23 HR

Houston – Felipe Paulino puts up a more valuable fantasy season than Bud Norris

Kansas City – Mike Aviles records double digits in both HR and SB

Los Angeles (A) – Bobby Abreu has more HR than SB

Los Angeles (N) – Rafael Furcal hits over .280

Milwaukee – Rickie Weeks hits 20 HR

Minnesota – Orlando Hudson hits under .265

New York (A) – Derek Jeter fails to hit .300

New York (N) – David Wright tops 25 HR

Oakland – Daric Barton hits at least .275

Philadelphia – Chase Utley combines for fewer than 200 Runs and RBIs

Pittsburgh – Lastings Milledge hits 15 HR

San Diego – Jon Garland posts an ERA under 3.75

San Francisco – Bengie Molina fails to hit 15 HR

Seattle – Casey Kotchman reaches 15 HR

St. Louis – Mark DeRosa (ADP 228) outearns Chipper Jones (ADP 132) Kyle Lohse will top 12 Wins

Tampa Bay – Ben Zobrist hits 25 HR

Texas – Josh Hamilton gets 100 RBIs

Toronto – Brett Cecil gets 10 Wins

Washington – Garrett Mock posts an ERA under 4.00

A few days ago I looked at which position players should be considered off the waiver wire. Now I will look at some pitchers that less than or equal to 50%, 40%,30%, 20% and 10% owned in Yahoo leagues:

Chris Perez (46% owned) – This is a no brainer pickup. He will be getting the save opportunities in Cleveland while Kerry Wood is on the DL as the primary closer. He may lose some saves if Kerry comes back. Since Kerry and the DL are such good friends, I bet Chris gets several chances this year to rack up some saves.

Matt Lindstrom (40% owned) – Again, a no brainer pickup, even in small leagues. If the league is only 10 teams, there is only 3 closers to go around for each team. If you have the chance to get 4 or 5 of them, you could get enough saves to complete and once ahead, trade them off to someone later that desperate to move up the save ladder.

Paul Maholm (26% owned) – A nice average pitcher that can sit on the bench as a replacement when one of your starters gets hurt (I already have a walking wounded team) . Also he can make spot starts against offensively challenged teams. His rate stats won’t kill you and the few added wins and strikeouts won’t hurt.

Jeremy Affeldt (17% owned) – He looks much improved being used out of the pen. He doesn’t look to add much for saves, but could get a few vulture wins and nicely lower your rate stats.

Brad Penny (10% owned) – Every pitcher at St. Louis that pitching coach Dave Duncan touches seems to turn to gold (remember what he did to Todd Wellemeyer). Brad looks like a nice pitcher to stash on the bench in deep and NL only leagues, see the first few results and then see if he is worth keeping.

While going through looking at DL information, I have seen some pretty decent players available. Here is a list of hitters that are less than 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% owned in Yahoo leagues.

<50% Owned: Chris Davis (47% owned) – I know Chris disappointed last season, mainly with his 0.238 batting average. His 21 home runs in 391 ABs was not horrible. Looking at his 2010 projections, they have him hitting anywhere from 0.251 to 0.285 with 21 to 30 home runs. There is a chance that he will produce in 2010 as did in 2009, but there is also a chance that he will hit 0.285 like in 2008. He is definitely worth adding to the bench and being qualified at 1B and 3B is also attractive.

< 40% Owned: David DeJesus (37% owned) – The main problem with David is he can't do any one thing good enough to get noticed. He is the epitome of the average player. Sometimes that is all you need on a team. He will hit for OK average while subbing in for players on the DL or days off. He is a nice pick up for teams ahead that can't take a chance on a player that may drag them down.

< 30% Owned: Nick Johnson (23% owned) –Nick’s real value is in his ability to take a base. In leagues with OBP as a stat, he is nice pick up. If you can handle the low batting average, he is a nice pickup in AL only or deeper leagues.

<20% Owned: Chris Iannetta (15% owned) – Chris was really supposed to break out in 2009, but disappointed. His main draw back, for a catcher, was his 0.228 batting average. I really wouldn't want to be starting him everyday, but he will make a great fill in for the days your main catcher has off.

<10% Owned: Conor Jackson (11% owned) – I have to break my rules here, but Connor was the inspiration for this article. I was looking for 1st base replacements and I saw he was at 9% owned (since has jump a bit) and I could not believe it. Last season he had Valley Fever (a 6 to 9 month cold). His skills should be near his previous levels of 0.300 BA, 10-15 Hrs, 10SB (5 in 30 games last year). With his 1B and OF eligibility, he will make a great bench sub or a starter in a deeper league.