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Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

R.A. Dickey, New York Mets (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

One of the last cuts during Spring Training, Dickey went to Triple-A Buffalo waiting for his turn to come up. While manager Jerry Manuel was hesitant to use Dickey, the knuckleball pitcher is doing his best to make sure he stays in the rotation. In three starts with the Mets, Dickey is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. While his FIP and xFIP are higher than his ERA, this is not an unusual think for a knuckleball pitcher. Phil Niekro had a higher FIP than ERA in 19 of his 23 full seasons in the majors. In the eight seasons prior to 2010 for which we have xFIP data, Tim Wakefield has posted a lower ERA than xFIP each year. In addition to the knuckler, Dickey can still throw his fastball in the mid-80s, not too surprising for a guy who was originally drafted in the first-round of the 1996 Draft. John Strubel had some nice Spring Training stuff on Dickey that you can read here and listen here.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers for Narveson are ugly. He has a 5.53 ERA and a 1.667 WHIP. But since moving into the starting rotation, he has put up some better numbers and appears capable of filling in at the back of a rotation or as a pitcher to use with the right matchups in NL-only or deep mixed leagues. In six games as a starter, Narveson has 3 Wins with 30 Ks and 12 BB in 32.1 IP. The ERA (5.01) and WHIP (1.454) are still nothing to get excited about but at least they are moving in the right direction. Narveson has a .365 BABIP so he still has some room for improvement in his ERA and WHIP.

Justin Smoak, Texas Rangers (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

When a high first-round pick makes the majors two years after he is drafted, he carries some high expectations. Smoak has yet to meet those with a .175 AVG in 114 ABs. But he is still someone to be excited about because even though he is struggling, Smoak does not appear overmatched. His K% of 21.1 is respectable and his BB% of 14.2 is very good. Additionally, Smoak carries a 25.3 LD%, which does not jibe with his .184 BABIP. The Dutton-Carty calculator thinks Smoak should have a .297 BABIP with his current stat line. Smoak is hitting in some bad luck. Grab him now and have him on your roster when the hits start falling in.

Join us at 3 pm eastern for a live chat with RotoGraphs writer Marc Hulet.

Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.

Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.

If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.

Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.

Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.

Here’s three players with relatively low ownership rates that could be a big boost to your team…

Gio Gonzalez | Athletics | SP | 30% owned

Gonzalez came into the season as Oakland’s fifth starter with 132.2 absolutely dreadful (6.24 ERA, 1.704 WHIP) big league innings to his credit, and his first three starts of the season were more of the same. Since then, Gio has turned it on and has quietly been on of the league’s best starters since April. His ERA sits at 2.72 (~3.40 FIP) over his last six starts, and he’s doing it with a little BABIP luck (.260) and the big breaking curveball that made him so highly regarded in the first place.

David examined Gonzalez earlier this month, and he’s continued his development into a viable big league starter. It’s probably too late to grab him in time for tonight’s start against the Orioles, but there’s still another 20 or so to go.

Anibal Sanchez | Marlins | SP | 14%

One of the other guys the Fish received in the Josh Beckett–Hanley Ramirez deal, Sanchez went from no-hit kid to the surgeon’s table in less than two years, and he’s just now rounding back into form. The righty had a pair of five run outings in his first two starts, but since then he’s dropped a 2.27 ERA (~2.60 FIP) on opponents in seven starts. Sanchez’s strikeout rate has steadily decreased since shoulder surgery (6.79 K/9), but the walks have followed along (down to 3.23 BB/9) while his GB% remains very strong on 44.2%. His next start comes against the suddenly offensively challenged Phillies on Sunday.

Josh Willingham | Nationals | OF | 36%

There’s only eight players in the NL with a wOBA over .400, and for the most part it’s guys you’d expect to be there. Ryan Braun, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, so on and so forth. Not to be lost in that mix is The Hammer, who owns a .422 wOBA thanks to a league leading 34 walks. He’s even stolen four bases for good measure. Willingham’s 18.7 BB% is second in the NL to Chipper Jones, and is a function of not just swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone (15% O-Swing% in 2010 compared to 18% career), but also seeing getting fewer pitches in the zone in general (44% this year, 50.7% career). Chances are he’s already owned if your league counts OBP, but even beyond that his power (8 HR, .234 ISO) and RBI (29) prowess have plenty of value for you non-OBPers.

Ownership rates is based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

He hit 96.9 on the radar gun in his last outing, struck out the side and picked up a save. That’s enough to make Axford interesting all by itself. But he is also a guy who transferred from Notre Dame to Canisius and went undrafted out of college. Axford spent time with the Yankees but was released after the 2007 season, when he had 45 BB and 67 Ks in 63 IP. The Brewers signed him and he began to improve his control. Last year he walked 38 batters and fanned 89 in 68.1 innings before making his major league debut at age 26. If Axford can keep the walks down, he has a chance to become Milwaukee’s new closer.

Roger Bernadina, Washington Nationals (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

A fractured ankle ruined Bernadina’s 2009 season after he had a strong campaign in both Double and Triple-A (OBPs near .400) in 2008. He had excellent speed before the injury and has good pop despite his thin frame. Bernadina has been a starter for most of the month of May and has a .295-2-12-7-2 fantasy line in that time frame. At worst he is in a platoon role with Justin Maxwell and as a LHB will get the majority of at-bats. He also can play center if Nyjer Morgan struggles or just needs a day off.

Hisanori Takahashi, New York Mets (owned in 6% of Yahoo! leagues)

A veteran of the Japanese League, Takahashi came to this country this season and began the year in long relief. He did an excellent job in long relief and got a shot in the rotation when the Mets banished Oliver Perez. In his first outing as a starter, Takahashi shut out the Yankees over six innings. He is not overpowering, but he changes speeds well and has a nice 34.6 O-Swing%. Takahashi needs to sharpen his command but he should provide very nice strikeout numbers (10.69 K/9) and a solid ERA for a guy available on the waiver wire.

In lieu of updating the shortstop rankings – that will come next weekend – it seemed like a good time to check in with a shortstop that seemed like a decent deep league value going into the season. Now, though, Everth Cabrera is looking like a sunk cost on most fantasy teams. Despite special wheels, owners are wondering if he even deserves a roster spot at this point.

Any discussion of Cabrera’s value has to start with strikeouts. Strikeouts are negatively correlated with batting average – that much should be obvious because the batting average on a strikeout is just about zero. Strikeouts aren’t all bad, since they are weakly but positively correlated with power, but power is not Cabrera’s game. He has a .099 ISO (.150 is about the major league average) and his power is even down from last year’s mediocre level.

Last year, Cabrera struck out 23.3% of the time and had a .106 ISO. Only Michael Bourn struck out more than 23% of the time and had an ISO under .130. In fact, only Bourn, Cabrera, B.J. Upton, Dexter Fowler, David Wright, Chase Headley and Mark Teahen had strikeout rates above 23% and below-average ISO at all. And at least two of those guys won’t be on that list this year as their power has recovered.

Cabrera’s power, on the other hand, has gone the other direction. He now has a .073 ISO, which would have been worse than any BA-title qualifying player that struck out over 20% last year other than Emilio Bonifacio. And it’s Bonifacio’s name that should really start striking the alarm bells. The combination of a high strikeout rate and no power is a toxic one that we’ve seen before.

Of course, Cabrera’s defense has the potential to separate him from Bonifacio. While Bonifacio struggled at third and second, Cabrera has the ability to man a key defensive position up the middle, which would alleviate some of the pressure put on the team by his below-average to average offense. Then again, the Friars’ shortstop put up a -13.4 UZR/150 last year, which would have been second-worst in baseball (to Yuniesky Betancourt) had he qualified for the batting title. This year, Cabrera is better (+1.6 UZR/15), and we know from a recent Tom Tango post at The Book Blog that it looks like we could be looking, generally, for about two and a half seasons of fielding data before we draw serious conclusions. For what it’s worth, Cabrera’s defense rated about scratch in the minor leagues.

With a little better BABIP luck (he currently has a .260 BABIP compared to .325 last year), his batting average could approach last year’s mediocre .255 number. With his reach rate climbing, and his strikeout rates steady and poor, that might just represent his upside in terms of batting average. Added to his declining power, this package is one that will never be a great option in fantasy. So it’s really all about his walk rate in the end – if he can return to walking about 10% of the time, he’ll get on base enough to flash the one tool fantasy owners really care about.

Unfortunately, since scratch defense at an important position doesn’t count in most fantasy leagues, Cabrera will most likely give back most of his value gained from stolen bases in his poor batting average and utter lack of power.

Be sure to check back later today as Eno Sarris, Zach Sanders, and Brian Joura will be hosting a fantasy chat at 3:30 p.m. eastern. We’ve had some great questions over the past few chats so keep them coming!

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.

Here’s three players who could step right in and give your team a nice little boost…

Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | C | 4% owned

News broke late last night that Jorge Posada will miss the next 3-4 weeks (and probably more when you consider a minor league rehab assignment) with a hairline fracture in his foot after getting whacked with a foul ball on Sunday. He’s also missed time with a sore calf and a bruised knee (suffered on a HBP) in recent weeks, so backup Frankie Cervelli has actually started behind the plate in 11 of the Yanks’ last 14 games. He’s responded with a gaudy .413 wOBA and 17 RBI, though he’s certainly been helped by a .417 BABIP. ZiPS RoS projection calls for a .282 AVG the rest of the way, which has lots of value from a catcher. Perhaps most importantly, Cervelli now how some playing time certainty.

Chris Coghlan | Marlins | OF | 40%

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year had what we’ll call a rough go of it early this season, with a sub-.250 wOBA and zero extra base hits through his first 107 plate appearances. That also came with a sub-.200 BABIP, but over the last week-and-a-half Coghlan’s steadily picked up the pace. He’s 13 for his last 41 (.317) with two doubles, two homers, and two stolen bases for good measure. His BABIP has climbed up to a more reasonable .279, which is still a ways off from his .326 minor league mark, nevermind last season’s .365.

When trying to replace an injured (or underperforming player), I tend to forget about replacing what I’ll lose in counting stats and instead try to make sure my rate stats don’t take a hit. If Coghlan continues to regress back to the mean, he should provide a better than good AVG for your team.

Wade LeBlanc | Padres | SP | 25%

LeBlanc took Chris Young’s spot after he made his annual trip to the DL, and he’s been the best pitcher on the staff since. His 1.54 ERA is backed up by a 2.67 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP, and he’s not enjoying any extra special luck on balls in play with a .315 BABIP. LeBlanc’s LOB% is sky high at 87%, but an ERA in the low-4.00’s from here on out is very possible. His next three starts are at the Mariners, then at home against the Cardinals and Mets.

Ownership rates are bases on Yahoo! leagues.