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Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

John Ely, Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year.

Angel Pagan, New York Mets (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In his last 18 games, Pagan is batting .311 with 15 R, 11 RBIs and 4 SB. Some of that production may tail off now that he is no longer acting as the team’s leadoff hitter. But Pagan’s continued emergence at the plate, combined with Jeff Francoeur’s continued non-production, makes it likely that he will still have a significant role even when/if Carlos Beltran returns to the lineup.

Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

A few years ago, Ramirez was thought to be an impact bat but there were questions if he could catch in the majors. He had an injury-plagued year in 2009 but got another chance this year with both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden sent to the minors. Salty is struggling with the yips, unable to throw the ball back to the pitcher. Teagarden was 1-14 in Triple-A and was demoted yet again to Double-A. So Ramirez and Matt Treanor are sharing the catching duties for the time being. Treanor is not much of a threat with the bat, so Ramirez should see plenty of ABs as long as his defense is not too terrible. He made three straight starts May 12-14 and went 5-10 with 2 HR.

The Braves added a productive corner outfielder to their roster with much fanfare last month when they took Jason Heyward north out of Spring Training, but over the last week or so they’ve improved the other corner spot without nearly as much attention. Melky Cabrera’s offensive ineptitude (.236 wOBA prior to today’s fruitless pinch hitting appearance) proved too much to overcome, so Bobby Cox has instead started playing former Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske on an almost every day basis in left field.

Hinske woke up Sunday with a .403 wOBA, and that’s only going to go up following his 2-for-3 with a homer (four RBI) effort this afternoon. Since joining the regular outfield picture nine days ago, he’s 10-for-21 with five doubles, that one homer, and nine runs driven in. His 3.2 wRAA is right behind Brian McCann for the second highest total on the team, but he’s still miles behind Heyward.

A .421 BABIP isn’t sustainable, so expect his .340 AVG to settle back into his usual .250ish range at some point. The homer today was his first of the season even though he’s hitting approximately the same number of fly balls as he always has (37.8% in 2010 vs. 39.7% career), and his line drive rate is actually the highest of his career (27% vs. 20.6%). That’ll come down and so will the extra base hits, but for now Hinske is performing well and has definite value in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

The object of many Blue Jays’ fans affection (I keed, I keed) is owned in just 1% of Yahoo leagues, so he’s probably available in yours. Best of all, he’s eligible at 1B, 3B, and in the OF, and flexibility is always appreciated. Aside from a date with Johan Santana on Tuesday, the Braves will face righthanders all week, so Hinske should see plenty of at-bats. If you’re looking to tread water while dealing with an injury or a prolonged slump (I’m looking at you, Casey Blake), or if you just need an upgrade to your bench, Hinske’s a great waiver target.

It’s finally Friday. Here’s an afternoon delight, three waiver wire candidates, each at differing levels of ownership.

Jason Kubel | OF | Twins (54% owned)
Maybe last year was Kubel’s career year. Maybe his ISO wont be .200+ again. He’s swinging less often yet he’s swinging more often and stuff outside the zone. The good news is that he’s still hitting line drives so that BABIP should embiggen. He could be a better option available on the wire for those that are running Juan Rivera out there every day, for example. Rivera is reaching more and swinging less in the same way, has also seen a power loss, but isn’t hitting as many line drives. It might be a 50/50 proposition, but if you own someone worse than Rivera, Kubel should be interesting to you.

Felipe Lopez | 2B/SS | Cardinals (19% owned)
Felipe Lopez is a better player than Brendan Ryan. At least offensively. Defensively, Lopez is closing the gap. And the way that Ryan is currently struggling, he may not get to wait around for that BABIP to normalize before the newcomer usurps his job. Lopez has always had more power than Ryan, and now that his defense has improved the last two years, and he’s walking as often as the incumbent, it seems that he will take the job once he returns from his current rehab stint.

John Maine | SP | Mets (12% owned)
Sometimes, when a player is only owned in 12% of leagues, it’s for good reason and it’s hard to recommend the player. Maine, for example, is walking a career-high (for the NL at least), his fastball is the slowest it’s been in his career and none of his featured pitches has been worth positive runs in linear weights. So why is he interesting again? Well, swing rates stabilize first, and Maine has got a career-high reach rate (28.4%) and a career-low contact rate (77.4%). If he was effective at 91 MPH, why not at 89 MPH? As your last pitcher in a deep league, you can leave him on the bench and watch the radar guns. With those reach and contact rates, he’s already doing something right. It may not yet be significant, but Citi Field is suppressing home runs by almost 50% this year (last year it augmented home runs by 5.7%). That could be a bonus.

The Orioles demoted the struggling Nolan Reimold to Triple-A Norfolk earlier this week, unsatisfied with his .292 wOBA follow-up to last season’s .365 mark. He’ll go down, crush minor league pitching a la Chris Davis, then return to the O’s at some point this summer for a second chance. For now, he’s been replaced in the lineup and in left field by none other than Corey Patterson, who had been playing exceptionally well in Triple-A (.368/.419/.491 with three steals in 14 games). Regular leadoff man Brian Roberts is on the 60-day DL and isn’t expected back for several weeks, so for now Patterson will hold down the top of the order for Dave Trembley.

We all know that giving a guy with a career .290 OBP more plate appearances than anyone else in your lineup is foolish, and at this point adding Patterson to your fantasy team is foolish as well. His past stolen base totals are gaudy and tempting, no doubt about it, but he’s just not running anymore. Well that’s not entirely true. He’s still running, just not as often and without as much success.

Stolen base opportunity data comes from B-Ref. It’s not even worth mentioning the 2009 season because he was in the big leagues for a grand total of 16 games.

Patterson isn’t young anymore – he’ll be 31 in August – and he isn’t stealing as many bases as he used to either because he knows he’s slowed down and/or because he’s not interested in that part of the game anymore. Who knows, I’m just guessing. He missed 25 days with an ankle sprain at the end of the 2007 season, so maybe that has something to do with it. Regardless, the former speed demon and isn’t doing the one thing that gives him fantasy value anymore.

ZiPS pegs him for a grand total of nine steals the rest of the way, and that’s in 320 plate appearances. Those steals obviously aren’t going to be worth the big hit you’ll take everywhere else. I honestly had no idea that his SB numbers had tailed off so much, and coming into this post I figured he’d be a decent 4th or 5th OF grab to add steals. Shows what I know. Knowing who to keep off your fantasy roster is just as important as knowing who to keep on it.

If you’re that desperate for steals, Juan Pierre (17 SB) and Rajai Davis (12) are still available in most in Yahoo! leagues.

Update: Chat will start at 2pm instead of noon.

Just a quick reminder to head back here on Friday for a fantasy chat at noon eastern time. We’ll talk strategy, trades, prospects… whatever you want.

Bringing up the rear in baseball’s short stack division, the Seattle Mariners haven’t put many crooked numbers on the score board. The M’s have plated an AL-low 109 runs and, even accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field, the offense has been awful. With -31.9 park-adjusted Batting Runs, Seattle can only take solace in knowing the Houston Astros are making more outs (-55.1 park-adjusted Batting Runs).

Over the winter, the Mariners brought in a switch-hitter with a keen eye in an attempt to boost the club’s run scoring. Chone Figgins, fresh off a .298/.395/.393 season with the Angels in which he swiped 42 bases, inked a four-year, $36 million deal. Seattle decided to shift Chone to second base, giving him multi-position eligibility in fantasy leagues. The projection systems figured Figgins wouldn’t replicate his ’09 season, but they still envisioned a useful year at the plate for the 32-year-old:

CHONE: .272/.370/.358, .334 wOBA
ZiPS: .280/.373/.362, .339 wOBA
FANS: .291/.380/.374, .347 wOBA

But, instead of giving Seattle a high-OBP bat in addition to plus defense, Chone has slogged to a .190/.326/.241 triple-slash in 146 plate appearances. His wOBA is a ghastly .279. Why is Figgins falling so short of expectations?

Figgins is still drawing a ton of walks, with a 17.2 BB%, and he’s not swinging at many junk pitches off the plate (16.2 outside swing percentage; 25-27% MLB average in recent years). However, he has whiffed at a much higher rate than usual: Chone has K’d 26.7 percent of the time, compared to a 17.4% career rate. Figgins’ contact rate on pitches within the zone, 90.9% for his career, is 88.8% in 2010 (87-88% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 79.8%, well below his 86% career rate and close to the 80-81% MLB average.

In addition to swinging and missing more than usual, Figgins has let a lot of strikes go by this year. When opposing hurlers throw him a pitch within the strike zone, Chone is swinging just 48.6 percent of the time. For comparison, his career in-zone swing rate is 62 percent and the MLB average this season is 63.3 percent. Figgins’ taking more strikes has helped put his back against the wall more often and has likely contributed to the elevated K rate. In 2009, 50.5 percent of his plate appearances reached a two strike count (48 percent MLB average). This year, 55.5 percent of his PA have gone to two strikes (thanks, Baseball-Reference).

In terms of his batted ball profile, Figgins is hitting about the same number of ground balls. But more of his balls put in play are being classified as fly balls, at the expense of line drives. Figgins is hitting fly balls at a career-high 43.5% (34.3% career average), and hitting line drives a career-low 15.3% (23.4% career average).

Line drives fall for hits well over 70 percent of the time, so a steep drop in liners is certainly a negative for a hitter. A declining line drive rate and an increasing fly ball rate is even worse for a guy like Figgins, who has precious little power (.052 ISO this year, .095 ISO career). Fly balls hit in the AL have had a slugging percentage in the high .500’s in recent seasons, but Figgins’ career slugging percentage when he lofts the ball is .386. When Chone hits a fly ball, nothing much happens.

However, the distinction between line drives and fly balls can be hazy. Liners don’t show a high year-to-year correlation. It’s hard to say if Figgins really is struggling to rope the ball, or if perhaps the official scorer has binned some balls in play as fly balls that others might call a liner.

Even if we assume that Chone’s drop in line drive rate is legitimate, and that he’ll continue to punch out at a high rate, he has been hampered by a .250 batting average on balls put in play. His expected BABIP, based on his 2010 rate of homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls and pop ups, is .320.

Odds are, Figgins hasn’t suddenly fallen off of a cliff: his rest-of-season ZiPS forecast is .268/.368/.357 (.333 wOBA), with a .328 BABIP. Chone’s contact numbers and rate of liners/fly balls hit bear watching. But a league average batter, with stolen base chops and eligibility at the key stone and the hot corner, is a worthy fantasy option in most leagues.

Signed to a two-year, $12 million deal by the San Francisco Giants over the winter, Mark DeRosa was supposed to provide his new employers with a good bat and position versatility. Similarly, fantasy players looked the former Brave, Ranger, Cub, Indian and Cardinal to hit at a decent clip while qualifying at third base, the outfield and first base. He stood a good chance of re-gaining eligibility at the keystone spot as well.

Unfortunately, DeRosa’s surgically repaired left wrist continues to hamper him at the plate. Possibly headed to the DL with a nerve irritation producing numbness in his left hand, DeRosa fumed to MLB.com’s Chris Haft:

A brutally honest Mark DeRosa said Tuesday that the left wrist surgery he underwent last year was a “total failure” and will remain out of the Giants’ lineup for at least a couple of days to determine his next course of action.

“When’s the last time I crushed a ball? I feel like my bottom hand’s underwater. I don’t have much feeling in my bottom two fingers,” said DeRosa, a right-handed batter.

DeRosa last played Saturday, when he went 0-for-5 at New York and didn’t hit the ball out of the infield in three at-bats against Mets starter Johan Santana.

“It came to a full head in my second at-bat,” DeRosa recalled. “[Santana’s] throwing 88, 89 [mph] and I was sitting on a middle-in fastball. It was there on a tee. I went to move on it. When it came out of his hand, I [said], ‘This is a bare minimum double to left-center.’ The next thing I know, it’s a weak popup to second base.”

DeRosa, 35, served a DL stint last July due to the wrist problem and went under the knife in October of ’09 to repair a torn tendon sheath. It’s often said that wrist injuries sap power, and Beyond the Box Score’s Dan Turkenkopf found some support for that baseball axiom.

The agitated Giant split the ’09 season between Cleveland and St. Louis, suffering the wrist injury right after the deal that brought him to the Cards for relievers Chris Perez and Jess Todd. DeRosa hit for a good deal of pop with both clubs, finishing the season with a .183 Isolated Power. Given his age, even a healthy DeRosa figured to hit for less power in 2010: CHONE (projected .153 ISO), ZiPS (.161) and the FANS (.164) all called for fewer extra-base hits.

So far, DeRosa looks like he’s swinging 20,000 leagues under the sea. In 104 plate appearances, he has a .194/.279/.258 triple-slash, with a .244 wOBA. DeRosa’s ISO is .065.

While it could be a coincidence, DeRosa’s typically solid plate discipline has tailed off since he suffered that wrist injury:

(For reference, the MLB average for outside swing rate is in the 25-27% range since 2007; it was closer to 20% from 2002-2006. The average first pitch strike percentage has remained steady at 58-59%.)

The biggest increase in swings has been on four-seam fastballs. According to Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ Texas Leaguers site, DeRosa offered at 39.8 percent of four-seamers with Cleveland (45.2% MLB average). With the Cardinals, that swing percentage rose to 52.8, and has remained high at 51.9% with San Fran in 2010. Again, we can’t definitely prove cause and effect, but DeRosa’s run value per 100 pitches against fastballs was +0.88 with Cleveland, +0.23 with St. Louis and is -2.28 with San Francisco this season.

With DeRosa ailing, John Bowker (.266/.337/.435 rest-of-season ZiPS projection) could benefit by logging more starts in left field. Given DeRosa’s health issues, owners should abandon ship.

The Pittsburgh Pirates thought they had snagged an under-the-radar starter when the club acquired Charlie Morton (along with prospects Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez) in a June 2009 trade that landed Nate McLouth in Atlanta.

A lanky, 6-4 right-hander who displayed drastically improved peripherals at the Triple-A level (150.2 IP, 8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), Morton made 18 decent starts for the Bucs after the swap. In 97 innings, the Braves’ third-round pick in the 2002 draft posted rates of 5.75 K/9, 3.71 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP, getting grounders at a 49 percent rate. Heading into 2010, the projection systems viewed Morton as a good bet to be an above-average big league starter:

ZiPS: 3.99 FIP
CHONE: 4.16 FIP
FANS: 4.16 FIP

A quick look at the 26-year-old’s stat sheet suggests he’s pitching more like Charlie Brown. Tossing 31.1 innings, Charlie has a 9.19 ERA. Good grief.

Look closer, though, and you’ll see some reasons for optimism. Using low-90’s heat, a pair of breaking pitches and a changeup, Morton has punched out 7.76 batters per nine innings with 2.87 BB/9. His xFIP is far less frightening than his ERA, at 4.00.

So why the ERA high enough to make manager John Russell turn greener than the Pirate Parrot? Morton has suffered from a .389 batting average on balls in play. When hitters loft the ball, it’s leaving the yard a whopping 21.9 percent of the time. Morton’s career rate is 11%, which is right around the MLB average as well. And his strand rate is absurdly low: just 46.8 percent of base runners have failed to cross home plate, the lowest figure among starters by a wide margin.

Morton clearly won’t continue to allow so many base runners to score, but he has experienced some problems pitching with men on during his big league career. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Morton’s splits with the bases empty and with runners on base, as well as the NL average for pitchers in 2009:

And here’s the change in Morton’s performance, compared to the average for NL pitchers in 2009:

On average, pitchers perform worse with runners on base. Last year, NL pitchers saw an increase of eight points in batting average and 24 points in on-base percentage with men on base compared to bases empty situations. Pitchers allow slightly fewer extra-base hits with men on, but they strike out a few less batters and walk more batters as well.

Even compared to the average pitcher, Morton has scuffled with men on base. His K rate has dipped considerably more than the average. Charlie has allowed plenty of extra-base hits with runners on, too, compared to bases empty situations (+74 points of ISO).

It’s true that strand rates can vary among pitchers, though numbers straying greatly from the 70-72% MLB average are likely to regress back toward the mean. These stats indicate that Morton does have problems with runners on base. But, even if one concedes that he struggles out of the stretch (some think he could be tipping his pitches), Morton’s strand rate is going to rise a good deal. The lowest strand rate among starters in 2009 (minimum 100 innings) was 59.3%, by Kansas City’s Luke Hochevar.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Morton to post a 3.99 FIP, with 6.49 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9. NL-only players willing to endure ridicule from fellow owners (you picked up WHO? Hah!) could get a solid starter with some upside in Morton.

Three guys will relatively low ownership that could help shore up some holes on your roster…

Orlando Hudson | 2B | Twins (36% owned)

Hitting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau has it’s benefits, and no it doesn’t have anything to do with that stuff about getting more fastballs to hit and whatnot. The benefit is that if you get on base, you’re going to score a ton of runs. O-Dog’s getting on base just about 37% of the time, so it should be no surprise that he’s scored more runs than all but seven players in the game. His walk rate (9.9%) and BABIP (.310) are in line with his career marks (8.9%, .316, respectively), so there’s no fall off to be expected. As an added bonus, Hudson’s also stealing a little bit more, once every 15.6 times on first compared to once every 21.4 times previously in his career.

(In case you’re wondering, Hudson has seen more fastballs this year, 66% in fact. That’s up from his career mark of … 65%.)

Ian Kennedy | SP/RP | Diamondbacks (18%)

It’s only May, but the former Yankee hurler has easily surpassed Edwin Jackson as the most productive member of this winter’s blockbuster trade for Arizona. After two kinda ugly starts to begin the season, the one they call IPK has held opponents to a Milledgian .616 OPS with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last five starts, and the matchups only get better: at Atlanta over the weekend, then at home against the Giants next week. He won’t maintain a .252 BABIP and an 82.9 LOB% forever, but a full season ERA right around 4.00 is well within reach. Just cross your fingers that the Diamondbacks’ bullpen can actually preserve some of Kennedy’s leads.

Aaron Rowand | OF | Giants (20%)

The gap between what Rowand is and what he’s perceived to be by the mainstream media types might be the largest in the game, but there’s no denying that the Giants’ centerfielder has been really productive in 2010. His .291 AVG is the second best he’s posted in the last six years, and there’s no BABIP funniness to worry about (.313 BABIP in ’10, .321 career). The power is the big difference; Rowand’s .221 ISO is well above his .169 career mark, and that’s because more than 18% of the balls he’s hit in the air have left the park. That is unlikely to sustain over the long-haul, especially considering home park.

Oddly enough, Rowand has a massive reverse split this year, but that’s something that should correct itself with time. I don’t like him as a top three outfielder in a standard 12-team league, but he’s a solid bench option to have around when one of your regulars has a day off.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

While looking through the Yahoo player listings, I came across some interesting names that are available in many leagues.

Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (11% owned)

I have to admit that I am a little surprised to see Latos available as much as he is. The sophomore hurler has the stuff to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, he’s had success at a young age, and he plays half his games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. The right-hander got off to a bit of a slow start to the season by allowing seven runs in his first two games, but he’s come into his own since hitting rock bottom on April 26 when he gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings. In his next start at home against Milwaukee, Latos gave up just two runs in six innings. He then pitched in Houston and dominated the lackluster club with eight shutout innings, which included nine strikeouts. You definitely want to own Latos in NL-only leagues and you certainly want to consider using him at home in mixed leagues. There will be some inconsistency in his performances due to his age, but Latos is a respectable option.

Fred Lewis | OF | Toronto (5%)

I’ve never been a huge fan of Lewis but he’s really upped his game since taking over the full-time left-field job in Toronto. The former Giant currently has a triple-slash line of .309/.347/.500 in 101 at-bats. Lewis’ strikeout rate is alarming at 29.8% but he’s hitting with some power (.191 ISO). He’s definitely not an ideal lead-off candidate (5.0 BB%) but Toronto doesn’t have a lot of options right now. If he eventually moves down in the order, it could further help his value by giving him more opportunities to drive in runs. Despite his place in the order, he does have 13 RBI in 23 games, to go along with 14 runs scored. Although he’s not a speed burner, Lewis is quick enough to steal double-digit bases. You could certainly do worse in AL-only leagues.

Ryan Hanigan | C | Cincinnati (3%)

This past off-season, it was certainly disappointing to see the Reds bring back veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez for another season. Back-up catcher Ryan Hanigan certainly deserved a shot to play every day thanks to a solid all-around skill set. The catching job has been split between the two players in 2010, which has hurt Hanigan’s fantasy value; but if you’re simply looking to fill a catcher slot on your roster with someone that won’t hurt you (and has the potential to add a little value), then Hanigan is your man. The catcher is currently hitting .380/.492/.600 in 50 at-bats and he has a career line of .280/.380/.374 in parts of four seasons. Unfortunately, the split role is serving Hernandez well, too, as he’s currently having one of his best offensive (and defensive) seasons in recent memory. If you’re not ready to pounce on Hanigan now, keep him in mind if Hernandez’ playing time diminishes at any point.

*Ownership numbers based on Yahoo Fantasy Baseball