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Another summer weekend, and another couple of players for your pleasure. Enjoy!

Miguel Montero, Arizona (45%)
If you’ve been reading these Waiver Wire pieces, you know we usually talk about players owned in fewer leagues than Montero. In fact, we’ve even started specializing in single-digit players, to the consternation of some shallow-league owners. Well, here’s a player that, though he’s owned in a fair amount of leagues, should be owned in at least twice as many leagues as he is. Montero put up 670+ plate appearances from 2008 to 2009, and in those PAs, he showed a strikeout rate right at 20%, an ISO above .180, and a strong batting average for a catcher. Put those pieces together and he’s easily a top-twelve catcher and should be owned in all mixed leagues. Now that he’s due back this weekend and is practically begging his team to activate him, it’s time to make sure he’s not on the wire in your league.

David Hernandez, Baltimore (6%)
Don’t fall over yourself to pick up the latest Oriole to accrue a save – it doesn’t seem that others are either. They might have heard that Alfredo Simon was called Shutdown Sauce and that Hernandez couldn’t overcome a nickname like that. There’s even the forgotten footnote Michael Gonzalez rattling around in that bullpen too. Here’s the thing, though. There’s a new sherriff in town – “interim” manager Juan Samuel – and he just recently reported that Gonzalez only hit the mid-80s in his rehab start. Simon’s K/9 in the minor leagues was a mediocre 7.4, so he’s not an obvious candidate for the role. Of course, he racked up those numbers as a starter, and could be expected to bump them up in a short relief role, but still. He was more of a fill-in guy than a person being groomed for the role. So finally we get to Hernandez, who racked up a save and has been pushed to the bullpen by the better prospects coming up behind him. With his gaudy strikeout rates in the minors (10.4 K/9), and his inability to translate those rates to the majors (6.02 K/9 career), Hernandez was a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s certainly a fly ball pitcher in the wrong park (29.2% groundball rate career), and he’s really not showing it as a starter. Here’s thinking that he can recover that nice strikeout rate in short stints and actually step forward as the closer of the future. If Gonzalez truly is only hitting the mid-80s in his rehab, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear surgery in his future. Again.

Come hang out with Zach Sanders and get your fantasy questions answered.

Before the baseball season starts, all fantasy owners are reading and getting advice from multiple sources. If you’re reading this, one of those sources is me. I said all kinds of things before the season started, and it’s about time that we reflected on some of the advice I gave. Don’t worry, I’m not just going to show you the things I got right. That wouldn’t be fair. Below is a list of players, the advice I gave at the time, how they are performing thus far, and a quick comment.

Tony Gwynn, Jr.
“If he can get ample playing time, a .270 average with 15 steals is not out of the question”
162 PA, .210 AVG, .248 BABIP, 9 SB (2 CS)
He may not get the average up this year, but I feel pretty good about this one.

Rafael Furcal
“When someone in your league drafts Furcal, look at them, point, and laugh.”
157 PA, .294 AVG, .339 BABIP, 9 SB (1 CS)
Who’s laughing now? Not me.

Juan Pierre
“A .290 average with 45+ steals is completely reasonable to expect in 2010.”
256 PA, .257 AVG, .276 BABIP, 14.8 LD%, 23 SB (6 CS)
How did I know he was going to stop hitting line drives?

Johan Santana
“CHONE projects his strikeout rate to be at 8.11, while FANS and Marcel project it to hover around the same mark. But what proof do we have that his strikeout rate should rise back towards his career average (even if it is only a slight bump)?”
78.1 IP, 6.55 K/9, 2.38 K/BB, 2.79 ERA, 4.49 xFIP
I didn’t see the K-rate falling this far, but it doesn’t surprise me. His fastball velocity is below 90 mph for the first time.

Stephen Strasburg > Aroldis Chapman
“Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him…Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in”
Chapman in minors: 54.2 IP, 61 K, 34 BB, 4.11 FIP
Don’t need to list Strasburg’s numbers because, well, you should have heard about them already.

Javier Vazquez
“Vazquez’s strikeouts will drop down a touch in 2010, but 17 wins, 200 K’s, and a 3.50 ERA are all reasonable to expect next season.”
56 IP, 5-5, 8.36 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 1.77 HR/9, 4.56 xFIP
How did I know he was going to start walking people? He’s struck out 16 and only walked 5 in his last two starts.

Brandon Inge
“I see a .250 average with 22 homers next season, with another 75+ RBI year”
229 PA, 6 HR, .242 AVG, .288 BABIP
Not shocked to see the HR rate drop, and his average is held up by a significantly increased LD%.

Jason Hammel > Jeff Niemann
“Why is Niemann being drafted so much higher than Hammel? For one, I would venture a guess that the old stigma behind Coors Field is catching up to Hammel. His numbers are very similar to Niemann’s, although his stuff graded out lower according to our Pitch Value data. Hammel at 362 is an infinitely better value than Niemann at 213, and I think Hammel may move up some boards as the season draws nearer. Hammel isn’t an ace, but neither is Niemann”
Niemann: 80 IP, 6-0, 5.74 K/9, 2.32 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 45.1% GB .226 BABIP, 4.43 xFIP
Hammel: 51.2 IP, 3-3, 7.32 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, 5.23 ERA, 46.6% GB, .347 BABIP, 3.74 xFIP
Got criticized about this in the chat a few weeks ago, and I’m still feeling good about this prediction.

Here’s one position player and one pitcher that should be available on waivers and could provide a boost to your team…

Angel Pagan | OF | Mets | 29% owned

It’s hard to believe that Gary Matthews Jr. not only started in centerfield on Opening Day for the Amazin’s, but that he started four of the team’s first six games. He’s since been exiled to DFAville, all made possible by Pagan’s emergence as an All Star level centerfielder. His .354 wOBA and +6.9 UZR are good for 2.1 WAR after 58 team games, and (R) ZiPS projects more of the same the rest of the way, a .354 wOBA with ten steals.

Carlos Beltran has been playing in games down in Extended Spring Training as he rehabs from knee surgery, but it’ll be impossible to justify sitting Pagan when he does return, even with Jeff Francoeur’s recent two week tear. Pagan offers batting average and a decent amount of steals, and his new lineup spot (second) should lead to some more runs scored as well.

Felipe Paulino | SP | Astros | 3%

One thing you’re not going to get with Astros’ pitchers is wins, but their starters can still help you out in other categories. The hard-throwing Paulino – only Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander top his 95.5 mph heater – sports a rock solid 3.82 ERA even though he’s stranded less than 65% of the runners he’s allowed to reach base. Once that regresses to the 71.8% league average, Paulino’s looking at an ERA much closer to his FIP (3.28) and tRA (3.18).

As hard throwers tend to do, Paulino walks a ton of guys (4.54 BB/9) and has a pedestrian WHIP (1.38), but his strikeout rate (8.12 K/9) is pretty darn good. (R) ZiPS isn’t kind here, seeing a 5.25 ERA (4.35 FIP) with a slight dip to 7.88 K/9 the rest of the way. Paulino’s next start comes in Kansas City next week, so if nothing else he’s should offer value for one more start.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

With Trevor Time becoming more terrifying than thrilling for the Milwaukee Brewers, the club has recently turned to John Axford to shut the door in the late innings. The 27-year-old righty has a 1.9 Leverage Index this season, highest among regular Brewers relievers. Who is this mustachioed man of mystery?

A Notre Dame product, Axford was once viewed as a high-round draft prospect. The lanky 6-5, 195 pound Canadian featured plus velocity and hard breaking stuff, but his hopes of draft day riches were dashed by Tommy John surgery in late 2003. He missed the 2004 college season and threw all of three frames for the Fighting Irish in 2005. The Cincinnati Reds took a flyer in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft. Here’s how Baseball America described Axford at the time:

RHP John Axford flashed first-round potential in the Cape Cod League in 2003, but had Tommy John surgery that December. He has been slow to come back, missing all of 2004 and working just three innings this spring. He had a low-90s fastball and a plus curveball before he got hurt, though his command was sporadic. Because he’s a redshirt junior, a team could take him as a draft-and-follow.

Axford didn’t sign on the dotted lined with Cincy, instead transferring to Canisius College of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the ’06 season. Unfortunately, he walked nearly 10 batters be nine innings for the Golden Griffins, and scouts fled in horror.

Our hero next took the bump north of the border, pitching in the collegiate Western Major Baseball League. Axford K’d plenty of batters in Canada, and the Yankees were impressed enough to give him an opportunity as a non-drafted free agent. But alas, he’d last just one season with the Bombers — Axford whiffed 9.6 batters per nine frames while pitching mostly in the short-season New York Penn League and the Low-A South Atlantic League (he also appeared in the High-A Florida State League and had a cameo in the Triple-A International League), yet he also issued 6.4 BB/9. New York axed Axford in December of 2007, giving him his release.

The Brewers snagged him in March of 2008 and sent him to Brevard County in the High-A FSL. Axford began the year as a starter, but he was shifted to the bullpen when his control woes again surfaced. Overall, he logged 95 innings (14 starts, 12 ‘pen appearances) with rates of 8.43 K/9 and 6.92 BB/9. Only a very low homer rate (0.47 HR/9) kept his FIP out of the fives — it was 4.47.

In 2009, Axford went on a whirlwind tour that took him from High-A to the majors, with stops at Double-A and Triple-A in between. Pitching 68.1 combined innings in the FSL, Southern League and the Pacific Coast League, Axford punched out 11.7 hitters per nine frames. He still handed out free passes generously, with 5 BB/9. Though he didn’t get a ton of grounders (45%, according to Minor League Splits), Axford surrendered 0.4 HR/9. His FIP was in the low threes.

Reaching Milwaukee in September of ’09, Axford posted a 9/6 K/BB ratio in 7.1 IP, allowing three runs while mopping up (0.18 Leverage Index). True to that BA scouting report years earlier, Axford displayed 94 MPH heat and sharp breaking stuff — a mid-80’s slider and an 80 MPH curveball.

Axford opened 2010 back at Triple-A Nashville, where he struck out 19 and walked five in 13.1 innings, coughing up seven runs (three earned). Promoted to the big leagues in mid-May, Axford has a 15/5 K/BB ratio in 12 IP, with four runs allowed. He’s sitting between 95 and 96 MPH with his fastball and getting swings on pitches out of the zone 39.2 percent (it’s an extremely small sample).

Given his Wild Thing Vaughn-like control, Axford’s big league projections aren’t kind. ZiPS thinks he’ll post a 4.78 FIP for the rest of 2010, with 8.74 K/9 and 7.41 BB/9 (be warned, Carlos Marmol — your reign as king of reliever free passes may be over). CHONE forecasted a 4.75 FIP, 8.61 K/9 and 6.07 BB/9 leading up to the season.

That being said, Axford is well worth taking a chance on. He has excellent stuff, misses bats and is owned in just one-quarter of Yahoo leagues. Maybe his tendency to lose the zone will doom him long-term. But Axford’s career path has been anything but conventional, and if he does succeed in a high-leverage role, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a reliever emerges out of relative obscurity.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Eric Hinske, Atlanta Braves (owned in 6% of Yahoo! leagues)

Anyone in a league with daily transactions should have Hinske on their roster. He may only be a platoon player, but he is destroying RHP this season. He has a .974 OPS versus righties, including a .326 AVG with 4 HR in 89 ABs this season. Yes, that comes with a BABIP of .379 versus RHP. It may not last the whole season. But there is no reason not to pick him up and ride him while he is hot.

Nick Hundley, San Diego Padres (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In his last seven games, Hundley is batting .522 with 2 HR and 8 RBIs. Hundley most likely will not keep his current .306 AVG but he does have pretty good power and currently has an 11.8 HR/FB rate. (U) ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 11 HR and even 15 would not be a surprise for the 26-year old. Hundley splits time with Yorvit Torrealba although no strong patterns have emerged. Hundley catches Mat Latos for the most part while Torreabla has a similar relationship with Kevin Correia. If Hundley breaks away to become the primary catcher for the Padres, he could be a boon to fantasy owners.

Ronny Paulino, Florida Marlins (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

Since John Baker went on the disabled list on May 15th, Paulino has a .308 AVG with 8 R and 13 RBIs in 18 games and 16 starts. Baker is still several weeks away from returning and even when he does come back, Paulino should still see the bulk of the playing time versus LHP. Versus southpaws, Paulino has a .377 AVG with 2 HR and 14 RBIs in 61 ABs this year. Lifetime versus lefties Paulino has a .339/.393/.494 mark in 494 PA.

Here’s a pair of players with low ownership rates that could give your team a nice temporary boost…

Aubrey Huff | 1B/OF | Giants | 17%

Quick, guess which everyday player leads the Giants in wOBA? Okay, it’s Andres Torres at .380. But guess who’s second? It’s Huff, at .376. He’s rebounded very well from a dreadful 2009 season, thanks in part to the highest walk rate of his career (11.6 BB%) and his lowest strikeout rate in six years (13.5 K%). A slight (~2%) boost in Huff’s line drive and fly ball rates have pushed his ISO back up to respectable .174, so all he needs is some more men on base to drive in. Flexibility is always appreciated from bench players, but just make sure you sit him against southpaws (.331 wOBA vs. LHP, .392 vs. RHP).

Clayton Richard | SP | Padres | 37%

The Padres are in first place because of their stellar pitching (3.73 team xFIP, best in the game) and defense (19.2 UZR, second best), and part of that has been Richard’s rock solid work at the back of the rotation. Although his 2.87 ERA is propped up by a rather high 79.0% strand rate, his defense independent stats are very good (3.36 FIP, 4.08 xFIP), and his strikeout rate (6.65 K/9) is good for a matchup starter on a fantasy club. Two of his next three starts come against the Mariners and Orioles, who are always welcome opponents.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Brian already took a look at ten hitters who improved in May after subpar Aprils, so now let’s do the same with the guys on the mound.

Scott Baker

A: 4.28 xFIP
M: 3.67

Amazingly, Baker’s batted ball data was practically identical in the season’s first two months, but he beefed up the strikeouts (7.82 K/9, up from 6.35) and cut down the walks (1.89 BB/9, down from 2.54). The result was a 3.55 ERA that’s much more indicative of his true performance than his 5.72 April mark. (R) ZiPS sees a 3.88 FIP and 7.00 K/9.

Chad Billingsley

A: 4.36 xFIP
M: 3.50

The ace version of Billingsley showed up in May, flashing an 8.77 K/9 and a 2.31 BB/9, which are much better than what we’ve seen out of him over the season’s first month and the end of last year. (R) ZiPS calls for a 3.49 FIP with 8.60 K/9.

Jeremy Bonderman

A: 4.43 xFIP
M: 3.65

Still just 27, Bonderman might have a big second half contract push in him. The K/9 and BB/9 both improved by more than one in May. (R) ZiPS sees a 4.42 FIP and 6.50.

Johnny Cueto

A: 4.87 xFIP
M: 3.21

Sure, his .244 May BABIP is low, but he increased his K/9 by more than four strikeouts (up to 9.79) and knocked more than a full walk off his BB/9 (down to 1.85). (R) ZiPS projects a 4.17 FIP with 7.62 K/9.

Aaron Harang

A: 4.16 xFIP
M: 3.62

The Harangatang hasn’t been himself for over a year now, but he still has strikeout value. Once he starts stranding more than 6% of the runners that reach base, his 5.48 ERA should start to resemble his defense-independent numbers. His homerun rate returned to normal in May, which is always welcome. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP and 7.51 K/9.

Rich Harden

A: 6.82 xFIP
M: 4.63

Yeah, he’s the least economical pitcher in the game at 19.7 P/IP (one-tenth of a pitch ahead of Charlie Morton!), but he stopped walking everyone and their mother last month: his BB/9 rate went from an ungodly 8.75 to a much more reasonable 3.91. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.10 FIP with 9.78 K/9.

Edwin Jackson

A: 4.28 xFIP
M: 3.63

Jackson won’t return to first half of 2009 levels anytime soon, but his strikeout rate jumped up from 5.40 K/9 in April to 9.60 in May, and his BABIP fell back to a more reasonable level (.305). Not all the way there yet, but it’s progress. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.32 FIP and 6.98 K/9.

Jake Peavy

A: 5.84 xFIP
M: 3.03 xFIP

The former Cy Young Award winner’s ERA was still bad this month (5.09), but Peavy’s K/9, BB/9 and GB% went from 6.91, 6.28, and 31.5% in April to 8.85, 1.11, and 48.3% in May, respectively. He’s not quite there yet, but at least there’s signs of improvement. (R) ZiPS calls for a 3.89 FIP and 8.69 K/9.

Ervin Santana

A: 4.12 xFIP
M: 4.00

The strikeouts climbed to 8.44 K/9, the walks dropped to 2.32 BB/9, and the homerun rate leveled off at 10.0% HR/FB. The (R) ZiPS survey says … 4.10 FIP and 7.98 K/9.

Ben Sheets

A: 5.35 xFIP
M: 3.92

Apparently everything that was wrong with Sheets in April was corrected in May when the A’s realized he was tipping his curveball. Sure enough, his K/9 (9.42) more than doubled last month, and the rest of his peripherals look more like the Ben Sheets we all know and love. (R) ZiPS predicts just 4.31 FIP with 6.24 K/9. I’ll take that bet.

Last month, we took a gander at starting pitchers who had significant differences between their respective ERAs and xFIPs. xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, does a better job than ERA of gauging performance in the areas over which pitchers have the most control. It’s not subject to more luck-based factors such as batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home runs per fly ball hit.

Now that another month has passed, let’s update the ERA-xFIP lists for the 2010 season. Here are the 20 starters whose ERAs are far lower than their xFIPs (minimum 30 IP for the season):

In general, you’ll note very low BABIPs and home run rates, as well as high rates of stranding runners on base.

As mentioned last time, an appearance on this list does not make a pitcher “bad” or a “fluke” — there are plenty of useful starters here, and at least one elite arm. However, looking at the ERA-xFIP split can make owners view big “breakouts” from the likes of Niemann, Cahill, Buchholz, Pelfrey, Garza and Sanchez with a more skeptical eye. Zito, Fister and Garland are generating more grounders, pitch in front of quality defenders and reside in pitcher’s parks, but those shiny ERAs are going to rise.

And here are the 20 starters whose perhipherals suggest better days are ahead:

This is basically the flip side of the previous list — very high BABIPs and home run rates, and low strand rates. Haren (profiled here), Beckett, Masterson (expect a post on him later this week) and Harang (ditto) stand out here. Jackson isn’t really pitching much differently than he did with Detroit last year, and Peavy isn’t that far off realistic expectations, once you account for his pitching in the DH league in a hitter’s park.

One of the hardest things to do is know when it is time to cut loose a player who is struggling in the month of April. Here are 10 batters who rewarded the faith of the owners who kept them, or the foresight of the owners who traded for them, with big comebacks in the month of May.

Jose Bautista
A – .213-4-16-12-2
M – .287-12-25-25-1

Sure, he only has a .238 BABIP this season. But a .350 ISO covers up a lot of other ills. (R) ZiPS sees him hitting .232 with 14 HR.

Troy Glaus
A – .194-2-9-8-0
M – .330-6-28-17-0

He looked like a candidate to be released the first month of the season. Fortunately for him, top prospect Freddie Freeman did not get off to a hot start. Glaus proceeded to hit like it was the year 2000 in May. (R) ZiPS projects him hitting .261 with 11 HR.

Jonny Gomes
A – .217-2-12-9-0
M – .364-5-22-16-1

He is seeing time against both lefties and righties. Gomes still mashes LHP (.466wOBA) and is holding his own (.322 wOBA) against RHP. (R) ZiPS predicts a .257 AVG with 14 HR.

Vladimir Guerrero
A – .333-2-13-11-3
M – .330-10-31-18-1

At the end of April everyone was worried about Guerrero’s power. Then in May he delivered the power while keeping the high AVG. (R) ZiPS sees a .310 AVG with 17 HR.

Corey Hart
A – .270-3-11-5-2
M – .253-10-22-16-1

While his AVG declined in May, Hart had an explosion in HR-RBI-R to merit inclusion on this list. Hart had a .217 BABIP in May but was saved by his HR output. In the just completed three-game set against the Mets, Hart went 3-12 and all three hits were HR. (R) ZiPS forecasts a .263 AVG and 15 HR.

Mike Napoli
A – .167-0-2-2-1
M – .322-8-17-15-2

He slugged like a first baseman during May and now with the injury to Kendry Morales, Napoli might get some playing time at that position. (R) ZiPS projects .262 AVG and 13 HR.

David Ortiz
A – .143-1-4-5-0
M – .363-10-27-16-0

After combining for 1 HR in April and May last year, Ortiz went on to hit 27 HR the rest of the year. Another slow start in April had many writing Ortiz off, but he responded with his best month since September/October of 2007. (R) ZiPS predicts a .263 AVG and 20 HR.

Alex Rios
A – .277-3-9-10-9
M – .344-8-18-22-7

Could become the first player released in one season to go 30-30 the following year. (R) ZiPS sess a .281 AVG and 15 HR which would leave him 4 HR shy of 30.

Nick Swisher
A – .250-2-11-10-0
M – .374-7-17-24-0

Coming into this season, Swisher’s career-high in BABIP was the .301 mark he posted in 2007 with the Athletics. After two months of the season he has a .376 mark, the 10th-best in the majors. (R) ZiPS forecasts a .258 AVG and 17 HR.

Mark Teixeira
A – .136-2-9-11-0
M – .280-6-25-22-0

One of the most consistent slow starters in baseball did nothing to change that perception this April. Teixeira has a lifetime .753 OPS in April compared to a .914 OPS overall. But (R) ZiPS does not project a massive comeback as it has him down for a .269 AVG with 19 HR going forward.