Archive for Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Yovani Gallardo – It has been an ugly beginning for Gallardo, as he has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 18 IP. His BABIP is a normal .296 and his K/9, which jumped from 8.24 to 9.89 last year, is back to 7.50 after three starts in 2010. But Gallardo has been hurt by a below-average strand rate and some early problems with gopher balls. He has a 64.2 LOB% and an 18.8 HR/FB rate. Gallardo has a lifetime 76.4 LOB% and a 10.3 HR/FB rate. His xFIP of 3.89 is right in line with last year’s 3.76. Other positive signs for Gallardo so far include an increased GB% (50.9) and a drop in BB/9 (down 0.56).

Casey McGehee – There are going to be no shortage of McGehee owners looking to sell high, figuring that neither his .366 BABIP nor his 21.1 HR/FB rate is going to last. But there are reasons to be encouraged about McGehee’s start, too. He has nearly tripled his BB/K ratio, thanks to a more patient approach at the plate. McGehee has a 35.7 Swing% as he has swung at fewer pitches both out of the zone (20.1 to 12.2) and in (64.0 to 58.7). His increased patience has led to an improved Contact%, and his 88.3 rate puts him in the top 20 percent of batters in baseball. Last year McGehee hit fastballs well but struggled against off-speed pitches. This year he is punishing both curve balls and sliders. Acquiring McGehee now will take some finesse and certainly an owner should not pay based on his current numbers. But I like his chances to exceed his (prorated) preseason projections going forward.

Mark Reynolds – Perhaps no player in recent fantasy baseball history had more naysayers coming off a 44-HR season than Reynolds. Even those who expected Reynolds to maintain his power were less sure of his ability to match last year’s AVG or SB totals. The end result was Reynolds being one of the players with the biggest discrepancy in draft results. Some considered him a first-rounder while others had him as the eighth-best third baseman. After 14 games he sits with a .220 AVG and just 1 SB. But Reynolds is not going to maintain either of those paces going forward. His BB/K rate has increased to 0.59 after a 0.34 showing last year. And with a lifetime .338 BABIP, Reynolds will definitely increase his current .207 mark. His HR, R and RBI numbers prorate to similar totals as he had last year. Expect Reynolds to pick up 35 points of average going forward. And while he will not match last year’s SB totals, he should once again reach double digits.

SELL

Chris Coghlan – Owners drafted last year’s Rookie of the Year expecting him to provide a healthy AVG. But a .179 BABIP has produced just a .140 AVG. While Coghlan is certain to increase his BABIP, it is unlikely he can come close to matching last year’s .321 AVG. RoS ZiPS projects him to hit just .278 the rest of the way. And if Coghlan continues to struggle at the plate, a drop in the batting order will come, hurting his R and SB numbers. He has already lost the leadoff spot to Cameron Maybin.

Tommy Hanson – In his rookie season Hanson outperformed both his FIP and xFIP by substantial margins. He is doing it again so far in 2010, perhaps enough to encourage people that it is a repeatable skill on his part. But Hanson is giving up more walks and home runs this season. Right now he is being saved by an 89.1 LOB%. Last year only three qualified pitchers had a LOB% over 80, led by J.A. Happ and his 85.2 rate. Hanson strikes out a ton of batters but once his strand rate regresses, look for his ERA to head towards 4.00 territory. Even with an ERA that high, Hanson is still a valuable commodity. Still, look to see if you can leverage his name value and hot start into a good return.

Luke Hochevar – Last year Hochevar had horrible results despite solid peripherals, which led some analysts to tout him as a sleeper for 2010. And sure enough, he is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA after three starts. But now his luck is good and his peripherals are so-so (or worse), making him a trade candidate. While Hochevar is getting a bunch of ground balls, his strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he is getting fewer swinging strikes. Hochevar is thriving because his HR rate is one-third of what it was in 2009 and his strand rate is 11.6 percent higher than his career average. Hochevar’s FIP (4.14) pegs him as a below-average pitcher and his xFIP (4.69) shows him as one to avoid.

HUNCH

Jon Garland – The move to San Diego has gotten off to a rough start for Garland, who is 0-2 with a 3.60 ERA. And both FIP (6.41) and xFIP (5.45) think he is even worse. His cutter and curve, which were such effective pitches last year with the Dodgers, are getting hammered. But I like Garland to rebound. His current BB/9 of 6.00 is over twice his lifetime mark and should regress significantly. Meanwhile, Garland’s K/9 is the highest it has been since his rookie season. And playing in Petco makes it unlikely his HR/FB rate will continue to be at its current career-high of 16.7 percent. My hunch is that he beats his projected RoS ZiPS in W (9), ERA (4.25) and Ks (100).

Welcome to the first installment of this year’s Trade Possibilities column. Since we are running daily Waiver Wire columns this year, this article will focus more on players likely to be on rosters in most formats. Another change for this year is the inclusion of a player to buy or sell based mostly on a hunch, rather than any firm statistical basis. This new feature is meant to be fun, so take it for what it is worth.

Remember, any player can be involved in a good or bad trade, depending upon what else is in the deal. If Ryan Howard shows up in the “Sell” category, it does not mean to trade him for a bag of magic beans. Conversely, if John Maine shows up in the “Buy” category, it does not mean to trade Tim Lincecum for him. These labels are used to describe players whose future value I believe is out of whack with their present value.

Difference of opinion on players is good. That makes it more likely for trades to happen in the real world. If every single thing points to a player being a Buy or a Sell, you are unlikely to find an owner willing to be your trading partner with that player. Not many owners are going to sell you Josh Johnson now for pennies on the dollar. If I describe a player as a Buy because of factors A, B and C and someone in the comments points out he should be a Sell because of X, Y and Z – this means a deal with that player has a better chance of happening in your league.

Lastly, the markers for a player can be mostly or all negative and that player can still have trade value. If a player entered the draft with an ADP of 50 and is stinking up the joint in every conceivable fashion, he can still be a Trade Possibility. Now you will not get ADP value near 50 in return. Instead, the question becomes: At what point is another owner willing to role the dice with him? If you are the owner of the bum, should you cut your losses and take an ADP value of , say, 200 in return? Some owners refuse to make a deal of this nature, as if refusing to admit they made a mistake in drafting the player. Others take advantage of any opportunity to upgrade their roster, no matter how humiliating in the short term it may be.

BUY

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite 2009 sleeper who did not pan out, Davis again found himself on those same lists for 2010, even if people did not trip all over themselves to draft him this year. In the early going, Davis is hitting for a worse AVG than 2009 and has yet to hit a HR in 24 ABs. Now he is starting to be platooned versus LHP. But Davis is showing much better patience at the plate. After posting BB/K marks of 0.23 in 2008 and 0.16 last year, Davis has a 0.50 mark in 2010. He has nearly doubled his walk rate while cutting his whiffs from 38.4 percent to 25. His B/K numbers are now in line with what he did in the high minors the past three seasons. Eventually, the BABIP will rise from his current .222 mark. And if Davis maintains this K rate, he should bounce back nicely.

Carlos Lee – Since 2006, Lee’s annual HR output has been 37, 32, 28 and 26. This year he has yet to hit a single homer. In that same time frame, Lee’s BB% has gone from 8.3, 7.6, 7.7 and 6.2 and now this year it sits at 3.6 percent. Dating back to 2004, his O-Swing% has been on (almost) a perfect rise up from 16.9 to this year’s 38.3. Right now Lee has the double whammy of a low BABIP (.167) and an abnormally high K% (33.3). The BABIP is certain to rise, as he has yet to hit a single line drive. And since 2002, Lee has consistently posted Contact% numbers ranging from 83.0-87.7 while this year’s mark sits at just 74.5 percent. Lee’s track record shows he is going to make better contact and eventually the hits will come.

Vicente Padilla – The Diamondbacks, Phillies and Rangers all grew tired of Padilla and his antics, despite his powerful arm. He has been brutal in two starts this year. While his FIP and xFIP are both considerably better than his ERA, neither shows a good pitcher, with his xFIP of 5.12 being the best mark of the bunch. But Padilla is still striking out batters at an excellent clip, with an 8.31 K/9, similar to the 8.69 mark he posted last year after being acquired by Los Angeles. In addition to bad luck with hits and HR, Padilla is also walking more batters than normal. His 4.15 BB/9 is his highest since 2005. When the luck stabilizes, Padilla’s stuff is still good enough, as evidenced by his K rate. How much he improves his BB/9 and FB% will determine how successful he is this season.

SELL

Fausto Carmona – An encouraging Spring has been followed up with a nice ERA. Unfortunately, nearly every other marker is negative for Carmona. He has an unsustainable BABIP (.127) and his BB/9 are a career-worst 6.43. And while he had a solid 2.25 K/BB in his breakout year of 2007, this year it sits at 0.50 thanks to a 3.21 K/9. It is not going to be easy to trade Carmona. But he remains a player that fantasy owners still believe in. Surprisingly, he is rostered in 73 percent of CBS Sports leagues. For reasons unknown to me, people view him as a worthwhile fantasy pitcher. Shop him and take any offer that has positive value.

Raul Ibanez – On June 2nd last year, Ibanez had a .340/.399/.716 slash line. For the remainder of the season he posted a .228/.313/.446 line in 342 PA. This year he has a .222/.333/.333 line in his first 33 PA. Ibanez still has value as a power hitter. RoS ZiPS shows him hitting 23 HR the rest of the way. But I am bearish on Ibanez because I think the AVG is going to be an anchor. This year his .273 BABIP has produced a .222 AVG. The BABIP is 33 points below his career average in the category. How much above .250 can he possibly hit this year? Ibanez turns 38 in June and even Citizens Bank Park will have a hard time making up for that.

Miguel Tejada – He looks like a nice acquisition target thanks to a .194 BABIP, which is 103 points below his career average and 124 points below last year’s mark. But Tejada’s value has been propped up the past two years by playing his home games in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. The past two seasons away from the Juice Box, Tejada posted a .278 AVG with 9 HR. And after a neutral year handling FB in 2009, Tejada has reverted to struggling against them in 2010. Pitchers have fed Tejada FB 73 percent of the time, the fifth most in baseball. He is above average against sliders, cutters and changeups. But Tejada is 3.8 runs below average against fastballs, the third-worst mark in the majors.

HUNCH

Daric Barton – He has a .375 BABIP, a mark he is unlikely to maintain going forward. Even with the hot hitting to start the year, Barton has a .077 ISO, a terrible mark for a first baseman. And top prospect Chris Carter, last year’s MVP of the Texas League, is waiting in Triple-A. But my hunch is that Barton keeps the 1B job all year, flirts with a .300 AVG and 20 HR and is a useful fantasy player.

The deadline to make fantasy trades either has already happened or is just around the corner, depending upon your league rules. If your league still permits trading, start working the phones and see what you can do. In that regard, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Alex Rodriguez – A lot of owners are worried about Rodriguez’ relative lack of power this season, especially given the way new Yankee Stadium has played. Rodriguez has not hit a HR since July 19th and 13 of his 19 HR this year have come at home. But his HR/FB rate is better than it was last season and Rodriguez is unlikely to maintain a .263 BABIP going forward.

Clayton Richard – In his second season with the White Sox, Richard held his own. He posted an ERA just slightly above league average and his K/9 of 6.67 was good. Now he finds himself pitching in the NL without a designated hitter and he goes from pitching in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Petco Park, one of the best pitching parks in baseball. It should add up to make him a valuable fantasy pitcher for the rest of 2009.

Alex Rios – The expectations for Rios always seem to exceed the actual production. Some hoped he would threaten 30-30 while batting close to .300 and it just has not worked out that way. But Rios is on target to exceed last year’s HR and RBI totals while coming close to his career-best steal output. His BABIP is 30 points below his career mark and RoS ZiPS forecasts him to hit .282 for the remainder of the season.

Jeff Niemann – There is nothing in Niemann’s overall profile to recommend acquiring him, while his FIP and HR/FB ratio might even suggest him as a sell candidate. But since the middle of May, Niemann has been a steady and consistent fantasy hurler. In his last 14 games, Niemann is 8-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.197 WHIP. Niemann has started throwing more curveballs, giving batters another pitch to consider.

Lastings Milledge – Many fantasy owners expected Milledge to have a breakout season in 2009 and that just has not happened. But the trade to Pittsburgh offers him a new start and he has two things in his favor now that he did not have earlier in Washington. First, Milledge is not a leadoff hitter and with Andrew McCutchen around to fill that bill for the Pirates, it frees Milledge to bat lower in the order. And while it does not appear on the surface to matter in fantasy, McCutchen also allows Milledge to play an outfield corner in Pittsburgh, where he is much more suited defensively. Milledge is only owned in 23 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is worth a flier if he is available on your waiver wire.

Exchange

Aramis Ramirez – Fantasy owners have been without Ramirez for most of the year, so it seems an odd time to be shopping him now. Since returning from the DL, Ramirez has posted a .321-5-17-15-0 fantasy line in 21 games. But Ramirez also has a .353 BA BIP, 58 points above his career average. And his HR/FB rate of 16.4 percent is his highest since 2005.

Joba Chamberlain – He has been lights out in his last three starts, offering fantasy owners the production they dreamed about when they selected him in the top half of their draft. But while he is doing his best pitching of the season, word is that the Yankees are going to cap his innings somewhere around 160 innings this season. Now, when push comes to shove, New York may not go through with that plan but Chamberlain owners owe it to themselves to see if they can trade him for equivalent value and minimize their risk going forward.

Alex Gordon – After spending most of the season on the DL with a hip injury, Gordon is back for the Royals. His first two weeks back have been nothing special. Like Rios, expectations for Gordon always seem to outstrip his production but Gordon is unlikely to offer the upside of Rios in any single fantasy category for the rest of the season.

Jarrod Washburn – He was exceeding all expectations this season in Seattle and now he has to keep that performance up in the heat of a pennant race in Detroit. Washburn has been through the playoff chase numerous times before while with the Angels but owners should be wary of how he will do moving away from Safeco Park and the vaunted Mariners defense. And for what it is worth, Washburn has a lifetime 5.33 ERA in eight starts in Comerica Park.

James Loney – In his last 14 games, Loney is batting .397 with 14 RBIs. But even in this hot streak, Loney has zero HR. Loney’s HR/FB rate checks in at a dismal 5.4 percent and in order to be a valuable corner infielder in fantasy, Loney will need a much higher AVG than his .293 mark this season with such puny HR production.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Miguel Montero and trade Todd Helton last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Ben Francisco – Since the end of June, Francisco has been playing virtually every day, most often in left field and with occasional starts in center. In his last 25 games he has a .289/.421/.539 line. He has some room for growth in his HR output and could exceed RoS ZiPS forecast of five dingers. Francisco is owned in only 13 percent of CBS Sports leagues and has the ability to contribute in all five categories, although he is not likely to offer very much in AVG.

Jonathon Niese – The overall Triple-A numbers do not overwhelm you but he won his last five decisions for Buffalo. In his last eight starts in the International League, Niese went 5-1 with a 0.96 ERA, with 13 BBs and 46 Ks in 56.1 innings. In his first start since being promoted, Niese limited the Astros to one run in seven innings in a start at the Juice Box, and retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced.

Ryan Garko – With the trade to the Giants, Garko should receive regular playing time as the team’s new first baseman. He mashes LHP (.960 OPS this year) and holds his own versus RHP (.772 OPS). That is not great production for a first baseman but with the Giants in need of an upgrade for Travis Ishikawa, it should be enough to keep him in the lineup, something he struggled with in Cleveland. RoS ZiPS sees him with six HRs, a total I would bump up with the playing time boost.

John Lannan – In his last 10 starts, Lannan is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA but with only 21 Ks in 73.2 innings. I seriously question whether any pitcher can succeed long term with a strikeout rate this low but I believe he can do it for the remainder of the season. From a fantasy perspective it is difficult to advocate a pitcher who has virtually no chance to help in strikeouts but for some odd reason the guys near the top of the leaderboards in Ks are rarely available in trades or on the waiver wire. Lannan is a player who should not cost much who has the potential to help in ERA, WHIP and W.

C.J. Wilson – Usually I avoid mentioning relievers because this is one area where most people are watching the waiver wire like hawks. Yet Wilson has the closer’s role in Texas while Frank Francisco is on the DL and is owned in only 35 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Now Francisco is not expected out for long because of his bout with pneumonia but he has also had problems with tendinitis, so you never know. Wilson should be an immediate add if you set a daily lineup.

Exchange

Garrett Jones – You would have to be living under a rock to miss the slugging exploits of Jones, who has 10 HR in 88 ABs for the Pirates. That has led to some far out numbers, like a .761 SLG, a .432 ISO and a 1.140 OPS. But he also has a 34.5 percent HR/FB rate which will be a tad difficult to maintain going forward. Last year Jones looked like he was going to settle in for a long career as a AAAA slugger. No one doubts that he has power and can be a useful MLB player. But he has little chance of being a star and owners should see if he has any trade value in their league.

Johan Santana – When owners drafted Santana, they were expecting him to be one of the top starters in the game. He was great in April but has struggled to keep that pace since then. Santana has been very good but the production has not matched either the draft slot or the name value. He is 3-4 in his last seven games and has given up 15 runs despite two scoreless appearances. Santana closed 2008 with a great run and he has the ability to do that again. But owners owe it to themselves to explore his trade value and if he can return third-round level value, well that exceeds what Santana has produced so far in 2009.

Erick Aybar – In his last 17 games, Aybar is batting .471 with 16 RBIs, 13 R, and 3 SB. His trade value may never be higher. His BABIP checks in at .347, 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. Aybar stole 32 bases in Triple-A in 2006 but has just 26 combined thefts between the majors and minors since then in two and a half seasons. And his lifetime .095 ISO tells you he is not likely to contribute any HR, either.

Randy Wells – It has been an impressive year so far for Wells, with 10 Quality Starts in 14 games. But I am concerned about him being able to maintain his current walk rate, which is under two per game. Also, in two full seasons at Triple-A, Wells’ strand rate was under 70 percent both times but so far this year it checks in at 78.9 percent. Add in a BABIP and a HR/FB rate both slightly below average and it adds up to a pitcher who could fall off some down the stretch.

Shane Victorino – He is unlikely to match last year’s totals in either HR or SB. Yet Victorino has been just as valuable a fantasy player because he is on pace to set career-highs in AVG, R and RBIs. Victorino’s BABIP of .342 is 24 points above his previous career best mark in the category. Also, he is walking more than he has previously in his career. Regression in BABIP would hurt him across the board.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Roy Oswalt and Tim Stauffer last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Kevin Youkilis – His AVG has taken a big hit since coming off the DL, falling 89 points. But nobody seriously expected him to challenge for .400, either. He is riding a modest six-game hitting streak and more importantly, is showing good power. In his last 16 games, Youkilis has a .281-5-14-13-0 fantasy line. He seems like a good bet to match last year’s power numbers, which many people doubted Youkilis could do again in 2009.

Oliver Perez – I can hear the groans already. Perez is terrible, he has no control and he is just as likely to get shelled as he is to pitch a good game. But in his first two games since being back, Perez has delivered exactly what a fantasy owner should expect from him – a W, good strikeout numbers (8 in 11 IP) and a high but acceptable ERA (4.09). I would recommend not actually watching him pitch, but in his 14 or so remaining starts if Perez delivers 6 W, a 4.00 ERA and his current 7.71 K/9, I think that would be nice production for the back of a team’s rotation from a guy likely available on the waiver wire.

Garret Anderson – Stat heads hate him because he does not walk and posts poor OBP numbers. But fantasy players like his AVG and respectable numbers in other categories. In mid-June, Anderson was hitting just .254 but since then his bat has been heating up. Over his last 30 games, Anderson is batting .336 with 17 RBIs in 107 ABs. He is no longer an everyday player, but Anderson still has the ability to hit for a high AVG and not kill you in the power categories.

Mat Latos – This week’s Padres pitcher recovering from an injury is Latos. He was ranked as one of the top HS pitchers in the 2006 draft but fell due to signability concerns. The Padres took him on the 11th round and he ended up at Broward CC. After a good JuCo season, San Diego gave him a seven-figure signing bonus before the ’07 draft. Latos missed most of the 2008 season with a strained intercostals muscle. But he was very impressive this season in the minors, going 8-1 with 1.37 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 72.1 innings combined between Single-A and Double-A, with the majority of his work occurring in the Texas League. Latos has already made one start for the Padres, where he showed a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph. He is on a strict pitch count for right now, which may limit his W potential, but he is a talented pitcher who may be under the radar of many fantasy owners.

Miguel Montero – For most of the first three months of the season, Montero was a huge disappointment. But he has a .413/.439/.683 slash line over his last 16 games. After teasing fantasy owners with glimpses of talent the past two seasons at the major league level, Montero apparently is putting it together here in July.

Exchange

Todd Helton – After last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Helton has bounced back with an impressive .324 AVG. In his last 22 games, Helton is batting .346 but it is the “emptiest” .346 you are likely ever to see. He has just 1 HR, 10 RBIs and 8 R in that span and 0 SB. Helton’s .359 BABIP is not out of line with marks he has put up in his past but it would surprise virtually nobody if that mark fell some and at this point, AVG is the only category that Helton is a plus player anymore.

A.J. Burnett – The strikeouts are down while the walks and HR allowed are up from 2008. Yet his ERA is 26 points lower than a season ago. Burnett’s FIP checks in at 90 points higher than his ERA. A slightly lower than normal .283 BABIP helps but the big thing right now is a career-best 79.5 percent strand rate. Burnett is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last six games, but that includes 14 shutout innings against the Mets, a team he will not see again this season.

Alfonso Soriano – A .279 BABIP gives hope for a second-half rebound for Soriano, but as R.J. Anderson pointed out earlier in the month, pitchers have altered their approach to Soriano and his season-long slump shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs to Soriano and his numbers have declined across the board. Outside of RBIs, Updated ZiPS has him failing to reach the fantasy numbers he put up in 2007, when he played in 135 games. Soriano is on target for 155 games this year.

Brad Penny – The good news is that he pitches for a team that scores 5.16 runs per game and his FIP is 81 points lower than his ERA. The bad news is that his spot in the rotation is hardly guaranteed. He has been a decent option in deep mixed leagues or AL-only ones, but time appears to be running out. His first start after the All-Star break (5 IP, 6 ER) was not encouraging.

Jonny Gomes – A .304/.395/.549 slash line looks great for a player bound to see more playing time with the injury to Jay Bruce. But Gomes has a .397 BABIP and he is unlikely to maintain his 18.2 HR/FB ratio going forward. Also, the Cincinnati fan base turned on Adam Dunn for his propensity to strike out often. How will they treat a full-time Gomes who has a 32.4 percent K rate this season, which would look right in line with Dunn’s Reds career?

The All-Star break is a great time to talk trade with other members of your league. You have a couple of days where the stats do not change and everyone is focused in on just one game. Take advantage of this time and consider the following players in your trade talks.

Obtain

Pat Burrell – One of the more consistent HR threats the past four years, Burrell has just four HR this season. And while his BABIP is a normal .292 his AVG checks in at just .238, his lowest since 2003. Burrell has been slowed by a neck strain this season, which explains some of his poor numbers. But despite a career 16.2 percent HR/FB mark, Burrell’s numbers this year in the category sits at 5.7 percent, a figure unlikely to remain that low going forward. He may not do much better in AVG the rest of the year, but he should provide plenty of HR in the second half.

Roy Oswalt – Five wins at the All-Star break was not what owners were expecting when they made Oswalt a fifth-round pick this year. And now he shows up with the red injury symbol next to his name. But the bruised fingers are not expected to keep Oswalt out of action and he has a lifetime .770 winning percentage in the second half of the season, along with a 2.89 ERA.

Howie Kendrick – He has yet to play 100 games in the majors in any season but the one thing Kendrick can do is hit. In his three previous seasons with the Angels, he has posted BABIPs of .329, .382 and .362 in what adds up to 945 at-bats. This year he has a .279 BABIP. Kendrick is hitting just .239 right now but it would not be a surprise if he hit .300 for the remainder of the season. RoS ZiPS has him hitting .294 over 201 at-bats.

Tim Stauffer – The fourth pick of the 2003 draft, Stauffer had his development stunted by a torn labrum that required surgery and caused him to miss the entire 2008 season. But Stauffer pitched very well in 12 games at Double-A and four starts in Triple-A this year. He made his 2009 major league debut right before the break and struck out seven in seven innings versus the Giants. Stauffer is someone that fantasy owners should pick up and see if he can keep it going. Getting to pitch half his games in Petco Park will certainly help.

Gerardo Parra – The National League Rookie of the Month in May, Parra has carved out a full-time role, alternating between left and center field. With former Diamondbacks Director of Player Development A.J. Hinch taking over as the team’s manager, Parra has been given the opportunity to develop at the major league level. In 52 games, Parra has a .284 AVG and 30 runs scored. He is even more valuable in leagues with daily transactions, as he has an .855 OPS versus RHP.

Exchange

Evan Longoria – In the first 30 games of the season, Longoria was one of the top three fantasy players in the game. He posted a .367-11-44-27-2 line. In the ensuing 54 games, his line reads: 234-6-22-21-0, which places him significantly lower than top three. Unfortunately, a finger injury is keeping Longoria out of the All-Star game, but it does not figure to be a long-term issue. The public loves Longoria and if someone is willing to trade first-round talent for him, it is time to pull the trigger. This is by no means a dump candidate but someone who you try to maximize his name value.

Tommy Hanson – He seemingly has the world on a string with a 4-0 record and a 2.85 ERA. But a quick look at his peripherals shows a player who has really been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Hanson sports a .236 BABIP, an 85.4 percent strand rate and a 1.10 HR/9 despite allowing a 46 percent fly ball percentage. It all adds up to a 5.04 FIP. A key indicator for Hanson will be his K/BB ratio in the second half. In Triple-A this year he had a 5.29 mark while so far in the majors it checks in at only 1.25.

Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta’s golden boy now finds himself in the media capital of the world. Francoeur’s career with the Mets is off to a great start with back-to-back two-hit games. But Francoeur is simply not a good fantasy player. The only times he was useful in AVG was when his BABIP was over .340; it now sits at .287 for the year. The swing that produced 29 HR in 2006 appears gone, as his dismal .102 ISO indicates. And the 105-RBI season came thanks to a season when he came to the plate 319 times with runners on base, including 257 times with runners in scoring position.

J.A. Happ – Like Hanson, Happ has great fantasy numbers with questionable peripherals. He sports a 6-0 record with a 2.90 ERA. But his BABIP is .242 and he has an 85.9 percent strand rate. Happ struggled with his slider last year and has ditched that for more fastballs and cutters. It is a shift that has worked very well so far but it is not likely to remain so rosy the rest of the season.

Franklin Gutierrez – When the Mariners acquired him from Cleveland in the off-season, everyone raved about what a fine defensive outfielder Seattle was getting. And he has been just as good as advertised in the field. But it is at the plate where Gutierrez has really turned heads. He has 10 HR at the All-Star break after hitting just eight last year and his AVG is 47 points higher than a year ago. A .348 BABIP helps explain the average while his HR/FB rate is over twice where it was a season ago.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Adam LaRoche and trade Derek Lowe last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Andre Ethier – With Manny Ramirez in the lineup, Ethier had a .317/.438/.558 line. Once Ramirez was suspended, Ethier’s numbers fell to .222/.293/.438. But as you may have heard, Manny is back now and hopefully Ethier’s production picks up, too. Ethier is also being slowed by a .264 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .323 and he had a .336 mark last season.

Charlie Morton – He has been very productive in Triple-A the past two seasons but struggled last year during his MLB debut. He fell behind Tommy Hanson and others in the Braves pecking order but now has a new lease on life in Pittsburgh. Morton averages 91.6 with his fastball and he complements that with both a slider and a changeup. He throws ground balls, keeps the ball in the park and gets a few more strikeouts than you might expect. Morton has a 5.82 K/9, which while lower than his minor league numbers, is consistent with the 5.79 K/9 he put up in 16 games with Atlanta last season.

Martin Prado – Atlanta’s super sub has not fallen off since taking over the full-time second base job. In his last 10 starts, Prado has a .405/.457/.667 line. He has third base eligibility from last year and depending on your league settings, he might qualify at 1B (19) and 2B (14), too. Prado’s BABIP seems high at .329 but he has a lifetime .340 mark in the category.

Ryan Sadowski – The first thing that jumps out at you with the Giants rookie is the 4.17 GB/FB ratio in his first two major league starts. In Triple-A this year he had a 47.6 percent ground ball ratio compared to 29.8 percent fly balls. The Giants rank fifth in the NL in DER with a .703 mark and sixth overall in UZR with a 22.9 rating. And with Juan Uribe taking over at 2B, the Giants have a stronger infield defense than earlier in the season. Sadowski does not have star potential but he could be a nice option to fill out the back of your pitching staff. Scott Ostler in the San Francisco Chronicle had a nice story recently on Sadowski and his path to the majors.

Gordon Beckham – The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham hit 28 homers in 275 at-bats in his junior season at Georgia. After a slow start in the majors, Beckham is batting .405-2-8 in his last 10 games. The big question coming out of college was if Beckham could play SS in the majors. Right now he is settling in as the starting 3B for the White Sox. His power will be nothing special for a 3B but he hit .322 in parts of two seasons in the upper minors and he could be a four-category contributor, with only a limited value in SB.

Exchange

Aaron Rowand – He had a career year in 2007 thanks to a personal-best .348 BABIP. This year he checks in with a .368 mark in the category. In addition to hitting .309, 2007 was such a good year because he hit 27 HR. Rowand should easily top last year’s mark of 13, but updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 16. He is not a force in any of the other categories, so trade him while his AVG is flirting with .300

Nick Blackburn – It is tough to succeed consistently while striking out fewer than four batters per game and that is the tightrope that Blackburn walks. Currently, his ERA sits at 2.94 thanks to a 76.3 percent strand rate and a HR/FB mark of 6.5 percent. Right now Blackburn is a plus pitcher in three categories and now is the time to trade him while his value is highest.

Hideki Matsui – After being forced to the bench for eight straight Interleague games, Matsui has been on a mini hot streak, batting .500-3-10 in his last six games. But Matsui’s value is being propped up by a career-best 16.9 percent HR/FB ratio. His .253 ISO is also a career-high and only the third time in his seven-year career he has been over .200 in the category. Matsui has room for improvement in his AVG but is likely to drop off in HR while his R/RBI numbers are nothing special. And since he is limited to DH duty, Matsui faces limits on his playing time, especially if Jorge Posada’s thumb needs extra time off from behind the plate.

Jair Jurrjens – He has lost five of his last six decisions yet Jurrjens has seen his ERA go up only 0.37 runs in that span. But Jurrjens has been a little lucky, too. After allowing a FB% of 26.5 percent last year, in 2009 that number is 40.5 percent. But his HR/FB is 5.4 percent, the eighth-lowest mark in the majors. In addition to the good fortune with homers, Jurrjens has a 75.9 percent strand rate and a .279 BABIP. So, while everyone else focuses on his run support (two runs or fewer in nine of 18 games), be aware that his ERA and WHIP are likely to rise in the coming months.

Michael Cuddyer – ESPN shows Cuddyer on track to hit 27 HR, which would be a career-high for him. He is hitting slightly fewer fly balls than he did last year but the homers are coming thanks to a 17.6 percent HR/FB ratio, which would be (you guessed it) a personal-best.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Lance Berkman and trade Adrian Gonzalez last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Adam LaRoche – In 2008 he had a .764 OPS in the first half of the year and a .975 OPS after the break. In 2007 the numbers were .763 and .854. In his MLB career, LaRoche has a .787 OPS pre-AS break and a .907 OPS after the break. He has had a very solid first half of the season and if he maintains his career averages after the break, LaRoche could challenge for his best season yet, when he batted .285-32-90.

Luke Hochevar – His strikeout rate is poor (3.57) and his BABIP sits at .231 for the season. But Hochevar has hurled a Quality Start in four of his last five outings, pitching into the seventh inning in all four of those games, including one route-going performance. Hochevar has decent control and does not allow many fly balls. And he should improve upon his 60 percent strand rate going forward.

Willie Harris – Since taking over the CF job 10 days ago, Harris has 3 HR and 3 SB to go along with a .308 AVG. Harris has never been a star, but he did hit 13 HR a season ago. If you need a stopgap option in the OF, he is a waiver wire pickup to consider, with the ability to help in multiple categories. Also, he has played 10 games this year at 2B, which may make him eligible there in some formats.

Chad Gaudin – Back as a SP after spending most of last season in relief, Gaudin is piling up the strikeouts and maintaining a serviceable WHIP (1.39) despite a dismal 4.58 BB/9 mark. His FIP is over a full run beneath his ERA while his strand rate has room for improvement from its current 65.2 percent mark. Early in the month, Gaudin was forced into bullpen duty in an 18-inning game. He got rocked in his next start but has followed up with three Quality Starts. In that span, Gaudin has a 28/5 SO/BB ratio in 21 innings.

Garrett Atkins – Through his first 53 games, Atkins had a .189 AVG and was in the discussion for the worst player in fantasy baseball. Since then, he’s hit .519 in his last 10 games, although none of his other fantasy numbers have been noteworthy. But one category production is better than none and Atkins has a .240 BABIP despite a career .314 mark in the category. RoS ZiPS shows him with a .288-12-52-44-1 line the remainder of the season.

Trade

Ichiro Suzuki – There may be no more polarizing figure in fantasy baseball than Ichiro. Proponents point to his ultra-high AVG and SB and strong R numbers. So far, the proponents have been right. Ichiro’s .372 AVG has him as the 14th-best fantasy player, according to CBS Sports. He has a .391 BABIP. Ichiro had a .390 mark in 2007 and hit .401 in the category in 2004. Still, his career mark is .358 so some regression should not be a surprise. Also, Ichiro already has as many HR as he hit in the past two seasons and his HR/FB rate is double what it was a season ago.

Derek Lowe – His last three outings have really dragged down his overall numbers. Some may consider Lowe a buy-low option as a solid #2/3 fantasy pitcher simply going through a rough patch. But he is also a 36-year old with declining K/9 and BB/9 numbers. Lowe is getting fewer swings outside the zone and the famed sinkerballer has a career-worst GB%. The numbers could be even worse if Lowe did not have a career-best 4.4 percent HR/FB rate, roughly one-third of his career mark in the category. His velocity is down and Pitch Type Values shows his slider, which was such an effective pitch for Lowe last year, has been a below-average pitch this season.

Mark Reynolds – Fantasy players mostly avoided Reynolds on Draft Day this season, making him a late-round pick or waiver-wire fare. The conventional wisdom was that his power was not worth the low average. Whoops. Reynolds has raised his AVG 29 points, shown even more power than a season ago and added SB to his game. But it is time to sell high. Reynolds is unlikely to maintain his 28-SB or 45-HR pace. He has already surpassed his professional career high in steals and the 28 percent HR/FB rate is 10 points above last year’s mark.

Joel Pineiro – He has gained a lot of publicity lately for being the latest Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan reclamation project. But Pineiro features a career-low 3.81 K/9 ratio and he is unlikely to maintain a 0.27 HR/9 rate.

Scott Rolen – His .332 AVG has been almost as big of a surprise as Rolen playing in 66 games so far, even with his bad back. He has a 17-game hitting streak with 10 multi-hit games. But he is a one-category performer, with just 5 HR and 29 RBI to go along with his gaudy AVG. And not surprisingly, Rolen has a .360 BABIP, which would be his personal best and is 46 points above his career mark.

Hopefully you were able to pick up John Danks and trade Bobby Abreu last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Lance Berkman – It has been a disappointing season for Berkman so far, as he has failed to keep pace with last year in four of the five fantasy categories. Surprisingly, HR is the one category he is currently outperforming last year, as he has both a slightly higher FB rate and HR/FB mark than in 2008. It was unrealistic to expect him to match last year’s career best in SB and R. But his AVG and RBI numbers have been disappointing. But Berkman has just a .248 BABIP (he’s never been below .303 since becoming a full-time player). The past two years Berkman has been a different player before and after the All-Star break. There is a strong possibility we will see that play out for a third straight season as he should experience regression with his BABIP, leading to a better average and more R and RBI.

Cole Hamels – Few imagined that Hamels would be sitting with just four wins and a 4.24 ERA after 13 games but that is where we are. However, Hamels has Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. His K/9 and BB/9 are both improved over last year. Hamels has been dinged by the long ball and is suffering from a .355 BABIP. His FIP is slightly lower than it was last season and is 60 points lower than his current ERA. RoS ZiPS sees him getting eight wins and a 3.60 ERA from here on out, making him a nice buy candidate.

Vernon Wells – Coming into the season the big question with Wells was could he stay healthy. So far, the answer has been yes. But while he’s been a regular in the lineup, his production has been a disappointment. Wells has been hitting for neither AVG nor power. His FB% is a normal 40.3 percent but he is hitting only 5.8 percent HR/FB, compared to a career average of 12.1 percent. Also, his BABIP checks in at just .266. Wells is finally showing signs of life with a modest six-game hitting streak, with three multi-hit games. Hopefully, this is the beginning of an extended hot streak for him.

Javier Vazquez – Year in and year out, probably no pitcher confounds those who carefully monitor statistics more than Vazquez. Currently, he has a brilliant 5.85 K/BB ratio, a 0.91 HR/9 mark, a 1.05 WHIP and a losing record. At least this year Vazquez is able to translate his fine peripherals into a good ERA. Given his history, there is no guarantee that he will get more wins from here on out, but even if he does not, Vazquez is still a fine contributor in three categories and worth investigating if his current owner is fed up with him.

Daniel Murphy – All the injuries suffered by the Mets this year have helped Murphy keep regular playing time, despite his poor start with the bat. Last year in the majors he had a .386 BABIP and a 33.3 percent LD rate. This year he has an 18.6 percent LD rate and a .265 BABIP. There is room for growth in his AVG and Murphy has displayed more HR pop this year than previously. With the uncertainty surrounding Carlos Delgado’s return, Murphy is likely to have at least another month of regular ABs for his BABIP to stabilize.

Trade

Brad Hawpe – Throughout his major league career, Hawpe has used above-average BABIP to post good AVG and solid HR numbers. This year he has a .389 BABIP and a .335 AVG, which is 47 points above his career AVG. And even with that elevated AVG, Hawpe has a career-best .276 ISO. Either Hawpe has moved into elite company or the time has come to sell high on him. I am banking on the latter.

Dan Haren – Throughout the off-season, I encouraged everyone to draft Haren. So, I feel a little bad about declaring him a trade candidate now. But he has a 0.82 WHIP (the lowest mark in the majors for qualified hurlers), a .238 BABIP (again, the lowest mark in the majors for qualified hurlers) and an 86 percent strand rate (the second-best mark). Haren should remain an elite pitcher the rest of the season but his trade value will probably never be higher.

Adrian Gonzalez – According to ESPN, Gonzalez is on a pace for 55 HR this season. If he keeps that up it would be a mistake to trade him. But Gonzalez has a HR/FB rate of 29.5 percent, which dwarfs last year’s career-best 20.7 percent. Also, his .326 ISO is 95 points above last year’s career-best mark. Here is another guy we are trying to sell at the height of his value who will nevertheless be a very productive player the rest of the season.

Ted Lilly – The past three seasons, Lilly has been very good for W and K but with his ERA and WHIP (two of the three years) dragging him down somewhat. So far this year, Lilly sits with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, both of which would be career-best marks. He has a lifetime 3.26 BB/9 mark and this year it stands at 1.96 so far. And his BABIP checks in at .256, 30 points below his career average. He is still likely to finish with 15 W and 175 K but both the ERA and WHIP figure to rise significantly the rest of the season.

Alexei Ramirez – A brutal start has dragged Ramirez’ overall numbers down but he has been hot in June with a .280 AVG and five HR so far this month. Owners were bullish on Ramirez, giving him an ADP of 70 (just a few spots behind Gonzalez). They were expecting him to build on last year’s numbers but instead Updated ZiPS has him merely repeating or falling short of last year’s fantasy output. Use his hot June to sell now and minimize the damage.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Scott Baker and trade Josh Outman last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Juan Rivera – Playing time has been an issue throughout Rivera’s career, but he seemingly has nailed down the starting job in left field this year. His ISO is nearly identical to last season; the big thing for Rivera this year is a more normal BABIP. After suffering through a .242 mark last year, he has a .313 one this season. Updated ZiPS shows him finishing the year with a .297 AVG and 18 HR and that may be selling him short in homers. Owned in less than 11 percent of ESPN leagues, Rivera is a nice cheap option for AVG and HR.

John Danks – Owners were expecting more than a 4-5 record with a 4.81 ERA in the middle of June. In his last three outings, he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. But Danks is on a career-best strikeout pace, with an 8.15 K/9. Also, he has been a little unlucky with a 14.1 percent HR/FB rate. Danks’ ERA is already 0.36 runs above his FIP and with a little better HR rate going forward, he could turn in an ERA under four for the remainder of the year.

Stephen Drew – It has been a bad start of the year for most of the top shortstops and it seems there is a different SS on the “acquire” part of this list each week. A hot streak the last two weeks has gotten Drew’s overall numbers near respectability. His overall peripherals look okay. However, the one area where he has room for improvement is his numbers in Chase Field, which for most other hitters is a great hitting park. Drew has a home BABIP of .269, which has led to a .247/.318/.433 slash line. In 2008, Drew had a .321/.361/.559 slash line in his home park.

John Smoltz – After five rehab starts in the minors, Smoltz is on the verge of being called up to the Red Sox. He has gone six innings in each of his last two outings, although he was roughed up in his last start, when he allowed four runs. Overall, the minor league numbers look good, not great. But Smoltz is a nice lottery ticket if he is a free agent in your league. He has a history of being very good when healthy and there is really no reason not to add him to your bench if he is out there on the waiver wire and see if he can hold up for the remainder of the season.

Alberto Callaspo – If you need a middle infielder, you could do far worse than picking up Callaspo from the waiver wire. He probably is not going to give much in power, but the .300 AVG looks legitimate. His .330 BABIP looks high, but it matches the .327 he put up last year. In his last two full seasons in the minors he posted marks of .346 and .353 in the category.

Trade

Jason Kubel – At age 27, it should not be surprising that he is on target for a career year. But he is unlikely to maintain his current pace. The 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has led to a career-high .238 ISO, while he has never topped .200 previously. Kubel’s .349 BABIP is easily a career high, topping even his minor league numbers in the category. His SO/BB numbers and batted ball profile are similar to last season, indicating that perhaps some regression is right around the corner.

Max Scherzer – In his last two outings, Scherzer has gone 12.2 innings without allowing a run. He also got to pitch in Petco and against the Giants in those two games. His strikeout potential will always make him attractive to other owners, but it is hard to get excited about a guy who has a 5.73 ERA in his home park. Scherzer’s FIP is slightly higher than his ERA and his strand rate checks in at 79.2 percent. Rest of Season ZiPS sees a couple of more wins, but basically the same pitcher he has been the first part of 2009. If you can find an owner eager due to his strikeouts and recent performances, look to make a deal.

Bobby Abreu – It may be a little late to maximize his value, but Abreu is still on pace for 88 RBIs and 41 SB. But at this point he will be lucky to crack double digits in HR. The AVG is good but not great and he will need to maintain both that and the SB pace to make up for the lack of power. Abreu’s combination of skills will work for some teams but that power from an outfielder will be an albatross for many owners, especially since he was counted on for 15-20 HR at the beginning of the year.

Trevor Hoffman – One of the great stories so far this year has been the performance of Hoffman. But he has yet to give up a HR, has a 92.3 percent strand rate and a .218 BABIP. He has an outstanding 16 saves in 20 games. Shop him hard to teams looking for saves before the bottom falls out.

Adam Jones – There is a lot to like with Jones and hopefully if you deal him now you will get a nice return. But he also has a .372 BABIP and a 21.8 percent HR/FB rate, neither of which are likely to last. One of the hidden keys to Jones’ success this year has been the elimination of infield popups. Last year he had an IFFB% of 14.5 and in two previous partial seasons it was 17.6 and 13.3 percent. This year his mark checks in at 1.8 percent. Since infield flies result in an out nearly 100 percent of the time, this is a significant improvement for Jones. But it is another mark likely to regress going forward.