Third Base has been a scramble for most owners this season. The position has been riddled with injury and ineffectiveness all season long and it has sent many owners to their respective waiver wires for help. Below I’d like to quickly highlight some guys who have returned from fantasy irrelevancy in part because of their recent production and in part because of just how God-awful the position has been thus far. In deeper leagues, they’re probably already on a roster, but their ownership rates right now suggest that there are plenty of teams that might need their services.

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We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball.  While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.

We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders.  I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least).   Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom).  Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.

Catcher

My Pick: Ramon Hernandez Read the rest of this entry »

Not every big fly is a home run.

Fantasy players in leagues that count slugging percentage know that they can find a competitive advantage in players that don’t hit home runs but do manage plenty of extra base hits. Those in ottoneu linear weights leagues know the same. So let’s look at some different players that have added value in leagues that count extra base hits that are not home runs.

The first idea that comes to mind is doubles power. Perhaps there are some players that hit doubles but don’t really have the power to get those balls over the wall (dirty). This year, the doubles leader is Michael Young, which might come as a surprise considering his two home runs so far. Other players with lower home run totals that appear in the top ten are Alex Gordon and Chipper Jones. Jacoby Ellsbury and Billy Butler are the only other surprises in the top ten.

The most attainable of this crew might be Gordon. He’s showing the best power of his career when measured by ISO (.181), but we know that statistic takes the longest to stabilize. Will his doubles power continue to offer value in non-home-run-centered leagues? It seems yes. Since strikeout rate stabilizes early and Gordon’s 21.4% strikeout percentage is the best of his career, we can assume that he’ll put more balls into play than in his average year. Contact percentage becomes reliable early as well, and his current 81.6% contact rate is well above his career number (76.8%). Put more balls into play with above-average career power (.163 ISO career, .150 is average), and you’ll end up at second base often enough. Consider trying to acquire Gordon if you need extra points in linear weights leagues, or some extra slugging percentage in OPS leagues.

Another way to add value in these non-traditional leagues is to show an above-average ISO when your home-run power is pedestrian. Most of the ISO leaderboard is conventional. Obviously Jose Bautista leads the list and Curtis Granderson and Mike Stanton follow closely. But you might be surprised to find Russell Martin and Shane Victorino rounding out the top 30 in that statistic.

Martin deserves some attention on his own because his work is superlative when seen in the context of his career. But Victorino has long been a secret boon in leagues that measure power in ways other than home runs. His career ISO is .153, but he’s bettered that mark since 2008. This year, by making more contact, he’s hitting the most fly balls of his career. That might seem like a poor idea for a speedy hitter, but obviously the Phillie center fielder has some power. Last year, Victorino did not hit 30 doubles for the third straight year, but he did manage to hit a career-high in home runs. if he doesn’t hit 20 home runs this year, expect him to challenge 30 doubles like he used to. Either way, Victorino, once healthy, will provide great power in leagues that can see past his pedestrian home run total.

Today’s waiver wire will help solve some of your up-the-middle problems…

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Twice in the last week I was asked if the concussion that David Wright received on August 15, 2009 from a Matt Cain fastball was the cause of his recent drop in production. I decided see what if anything has changed in David Wright from before getting hit in the head and after.

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During the Friday RotoGraphs chat, Mark Reynolds came up a lot, and let’s just say much of the sentiment could be described as vitriolic. There’s a lot of head scratching, hand wringing, and expletive-laden fire breathing going on right now as owners try and figure out just what in the world to do with a guy with such talent who currently looks like he’s trying to hit bb’s.

Adding to the misery is the news that Buck Showalter has hinted that Reynolds needs an extended period of time off in order to get his act together, which sounds a heck of a lot like a manager losing confidence in his slugging third baseman. Reynolds is currently owned in 71% of Yahoo leagues and 83% of CBS leagues, so Showalter isn’t the only person thinking of going to plan B. Whether he’s on your squad or on the wire, anyone who hit 100 home runs between 2008 and 2010 ought to be a person of interest, so let’s see if there are any tea leaves to be read.

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As important as matchups are to Pick Six (for more, see last week’s strategy post), the most important aspect of the game is to pick players that are good values at their positions.  Today, I’ll give a run down on some of the better (and poorer) values at the first two positions in Pick Six: Catcher and Corner Infield.  The numbers I’ll report are projected Points per Plate Apperance (Pts/PA), based on a weighted average of Oliver and PECOTA projections (a bit more weight to Oliver, because it’s more current).  YMMV depending on your preferred projection system, or your own adjustments to these systems.  Also, keep in mind that prices change weekly, and so this just represents a snapshot look at player value and may be obsolete by next week!

Catcher

Elite Three  (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Carlos Santana, $34.25, 1.42 Pts/PA
Brian McCann, $32.25, 1.37 Pts/PA
Buster Posey, $35.50,  1.33 Pts/PA

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There’s really no need to be embarrassed.  It’s a very common problem.  In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners.  I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time.  No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better.  It happens to everyone.  Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »

Join us this week on Bottom of the Barrel Scrapers as we look at a stopgap infielder with multi-position eligibility and a former playoff hero who just might have found his stroke in 2011.  They may not be the tastiest treats on the fantasy dessert buffet, but hey…they’ve each got a World Series ring.  That’s something, right? Read the rest of this entry »

If you drafted Aramis Ramirez in the 8th or 9th round as many did, you probably expected to get the kind of production we all saw in the second half of 2010: .276/.321/.526 with 15 HR and 51 RBI in 62 games. His slow start to 2010 is of course well documented, highlighted by an April that was legendary in its ineptitude: .152/.216/.283.

But given his solid track record, the dearth of available talent at third base, and the strong finish, a lot of people targeted him as their regular at the hot corner. And now you can hear the collective foot tapping as people are waiting for Aramis to show up to the party.

While Ramirez has thus far managed to avoid an April and May quite as bad as 2010, there have been several people across the Al-Gore-fantasy-baseball-dream-catcher that have suggested he’s off to the same slow start, he’s washed up, or both. His current .273/.336/.364 is about two-thirds Ramirez, but clearly isn’t the kind of power production that owners had in mind. So let’s investigate.

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