If you had the patience to stick with Pedro Alvarez or the wherewithal to acquire him during his huge early season slump, you have been amply rewarded for your decision over Alvarez’s last month of play. The question is whether this performance will continue.

I think we can all be in agreement that he will not hit .312 as he has over the past 30 days. He probably also will not lead the league in RBI for the remainder of the year either. However, that does not mean he is a worthwhile candidate to move after his big power month. I would rather hold onto Alvarez and keep the 26-year-old’s power in my lineup as there is a non-zero chance that he ends up leading the NL in home runs.
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I don’t often hang grades on prospects in my articles. I certainly have a strong interest in grading and I wouldn’t be able to do this job without a pretty good understanding of the process and scale involved. All the same, I’m typically reluctant to do things that would be perceived as me “playing scout,” and it’s easy to embarrass yourself and lose credibility as a writer by consistently pushing a poor grading scale in your pieces. Grading is something I put a lot of thought into, but I find it often doesn’t add much to my articles to include grades.

I had a discussion with a scout a few years ago about grades, and how averse I was (and still am) to labelling someone as having an “80” or “8” tool. The scout quickly agreed with me. We laughed about how despite the fact that there aren’t many 8’s out there, the first few times you see one it’s often… a bit underwhelming, believe it or not. The first time I saw a tool I thought deserved an “80” I thought about it for a couple innings, made damn sure I really felt that way and then finally wrote it down. Then I had a visceral reaction: “Is that it?” “Is that all there is?” “Where is the light shining down from the heavens and the choir of angels that’s supposed to announce this??” The consequence of hanging an 8 on a player’s tool means in 20 or 30 years I should be able to say that tool was the best I ever saw – or at least in the discussion thereof. “That is the best arm I’ll ever see??” The scout laughed and agreed with my sentiment, expressing his own similar reservations and doubts.

Well, I don’t have any reservations or doubts about saying Miguel Sano has 80 power. I’m confident that in my old age if someone asks me who had the most power I ever saw that the name “Sano” will quickly come to mind.

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It’s a pair of J names in this week’s deep league waiver wire recommendations. But don’t worry if you are considering adding a hitter with a first name that does not begin with the letter J. I’m sure he’s just as worthy of joining your squad as these fine lads.

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Howard Bender wrote on May eighth that Jedd Gyorko could help you on the waiver wire, and apparently all of you have not listened. Well, maybe those of you who read it have, but he is only owned in 51% of Yahoo! leagues so apparently not enough people are reading RotoGraphs.
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Garin Cecchini is the owner of one of the prettiest swings in the minor leagues. Over the last year and a half the Red Sox third base prospect has begun to turn his considerable natural talents into production. Recently Keith Law of ESPN.com even ranked Cecchini among his updated top 25 prospects (subscription required). He’s long been a favorite of mine and he may soon be a favorite for your fantasy team.

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It’s deep league waiver wire day, which is obviously the best day of the week. Apologies to my NL-Only league friends, only American Leaguers today.

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Third base is slowly creeping up on first base in terms of production. At least in standard twelve team leagues, look at the elite guys. One of them used to be an elite first baseman even. Where you might suffer a little in power when compared to the first basemen, you add a little speed with David Wright and Chase Headley. And where some first basemen make you choose between power and batting average, third base has some guys like Adrian Beltre and Aramis Ramirez that are good in both categories.

That said, once you drop out of the top ten, there’s been plenty of movement. New stars are on the rise — Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado skyrocketed — and some young players have cemented their status — Kyle Seager and Josh Donaldson come to mind. Mike Moustakas is missing some power, Ryan Zimmerman can’t get healthy, and Hanley Ramirez boasts both problems.

Still, this is a position that is likely owned into the low 20s even in twelve-team mixed leagues, because third basemen make decent corner infield fillers, and occasionally even man a utility spot.

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In an effort to help you sniff out third base options should you still be waiting for David Freese to find his contacts, Jeff Keppinger to draw a walk, or Placido Polanco to do… anything — I’ve got a few ideas for you. They may not be good ideas, but they are ideas nonetheless, and third base has kind of necessitated the use of hairbrained thinking.

You might have already noticed this because it happened weeks ago, but Jose Bautista has three appearances at third base. Eligibility rules vary, but in Yahoo and Ottoneu formats, he only needs three more starts to qualify at third. In ESPN, he will need seven additional appearances.

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“May Day” is actually an appropriate call for third base because, holy hell, it has been one trial after the last tribulation. Third base has been so tough to staff on some of you, the consideration of just going without has been more attractive than what’s available on the waiver wire. As far as putting this cast of misfits into tiers, I ought to just have Tier One and then “The Rest” as punishment to everyone outside of Detroit. There have been some pleasant surprises of course, so let’s get to it.

A quick note about this particular batch of tiers. In the past, I’ve always liked to temper the rapid movement up or down rankings in May, suggesting that the tiers should represent something akin to a “if the draft were held today…” line of thinking. But given the dearth of production from some players and the rampant injuries, I’d like to think these tiers are a happy median between on-field performance and what we should expect going forward. The stats after each player are the Steamer rest-of-season projections.

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Last summer, Jeff Zimmerman updated the xBABIP formula and provided a spreadsheet calculator to perform the dirty work. So with a month of the season in the books, let’s take a look at the hitter’s who have outperformed their xBABIP marks the most. It would be easy to simply sort by BABIP and note that the .400+ guys won’t maintain that pace, but it’s very possible that their batted ball profile supports a BABIP above .350. You wouldn’t know that without the calculator.

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