Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves and Rays look like they have pretty easy schedules next week. Tampa hosts the Tigers before traveling to face the hapless White Sox next weekend while Atlanta hosts the Marlins and Guardians. The Giants also have six games at home next week which should be a boon to their starting rotation.
• On the other hand, the Reds and Guardians have tough slates next week. Cincinnati hosts the Phillies before heading out to face the Rangers on the road while Cleveland hosts the Red Sox and then travel to Atlanta over the weekend.
• The Astros have a weird week with two off days and just five games including two in Colorado next weekend.
• The Phillies might activate Taijuan Walker from the IL next week. Keep an eye on their rotation to see how they handle his activation while allowing Spencer Turnbull to continue his hot start to the season.
• The Red Sox will need to make a roster move to find a fill in for the injured Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Right now, Naoyuki Uwasawa is listed on the Probables Grid. In addition, Boston used Cooper Criswell as a bulk reliever behind an opener yesterday. If they continue that pattern next week, make sure he’s in the right SP or RP slot in your lineup depending on how the Sox deploy him.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• It looks like the Phillies have a pretty easy schedule this week; they’ll host the Rockies and White Sox. Citizens Bank Park is fairly hitter friendly, but both Colorado (outside of Coors) and Chicago have been punchless to start the season. Aaron Nola is the lucky recipient of a two-start week against these weak opponents.
• I’m also recommending you start everyone in the Giants rotation; they’ll start the week in Miami and then return home to face the Diamondbacks next weekend. Arizona could pose some problems, but the cavernous ballpark in San Francisco should prevent things from getting too out of hand.
• After their easy week this week, the Braves face both Texas teams next week. That will present some tough matchups, and after Max Fried’s blow up last weekend, it’s hard to trust anyone from Atlanta’s rotation next week.
• It’s possible we’ll see the season debuts of Walker Buehler, Jordan Montgomery, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, and Jameson Taillon next week. If you roster any of those guys, you’re probably already monitoring their rehab starts. Buehler and Montgomery both have pretty easy matchups if they stick to their schedule — those would be the only two I’d recommend starting so quickly off the Injured List.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• It’s a great week to roster any of the Braves starters; they host the punchless Mets and then travel to Miami. Charlie Morton and Reynaldo López are the lucky starters to pull a double shift next week.
• If I had any confidence in their starters, this would also be a great week for the Nationals; they’re on a West Coast swing through the Bay Area next week and play six games in those cavernous stadiums. As it is, I can only recommend MacKenzie Gore wholeheartedly with the rest falling somewhere between “maybe” and “risky.” That’s a shame.
• The Astros and Rangers have a wrap around four-game series that ends on Monday before meeting up again over the weekend. That means Framber Valdez lines up to face the Rangers twice in one week. After a rough first start to the season he looked much better against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Still, I don’t really have much interest in seeing if he can tempt fate twice against the Rangers high-powered offense.
• It’s a rough week to roster any of the Marlins starters; they travel to New York to face the Yankees and then host the Braves.
• There are a handful of starters who are slated to come off the injured list next week including Blake Snell, Nick Lodolo, and possibly Michael Lorenzen. Normally I wouldn’t recommend starting a pitcher coming off a stint on the IL but Snell and Lorenzen have pretty juicy matchups against the Nationals and A’s, respectively.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The first week in the Ottoneu season runs from March 20 through April 7 (including the two games in Korea). If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, you’ll have four extra days of games to juggle with a cap that isn’t proportionally bigger. And if you started any of the four starters from those games in Korea, you’re already down a start. Make sure you’re really keeping track of the best matchups and plan out your starters accordingly.
• Most teams have either one or two off days over these first 11 days of the season. The Twins and Brewers have three off days which should give their starters an extra bit of rest.
• I think JP Sears has a particularly nice pair of matchups to start the season. He’s had a great spring training and he’s lined up to face the Guardians at home and then the Tigers in Detroit. He’s an under-the-radar starter who could get off to a quick start this season.
• The Astros have a particularly tough schedule to start the season with series against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rangers lined up. You could start Framber Valdez since he feels pretty matchup proof, but I’d fade Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways.
• The Orioles, Royals, and Tigers all have easier matchups to close out the season. Those teams don’t normally have a ton of “must start” pitchers but the schedule aligns perfectly to give them some nice and easy opponents next week.
• The Cubs and Mariners are both fighting for a playoff spot in their respective Wild Card races and they’ll be going up against some tough offenses. You’ve got to start the three aces on Seattle’s pitching staff but I’d be weary of calling on their two young rookies. It’s even tougher for Chicago since they’ll spend all of next week on the road against two very good teams. Justin Steele is fighting for the NL Cy Young and he even has a two-start week next week, but I think I’d only be comfortable starting him against the Brewers.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Blake Snell
• Kevin Gausman
• Logan Webb
• Luis Castillo
• Zac Gallen
• Aaron Nola
• Justin Verlander
• George Kirby
• Michael King
• Kyle Bradish
• Reese Olson

The clock is ticking down on the regular season which means it’s crunch time for fantasy baseball players. It’s probably too late to affect the outcome of any Ottoneu head-to-head leagues at this point — your roster is what it is during championship week — but points leagues still have two weeks to continue to accumulate points and try and hit their positional and innings caps. Below, I’ve compiled four starters who look like they have easier matchups over these final weeks of the season and who are rostered in less than 60% of Ottoneu leagues. If you’re desperate for innings to reach your cap, these guys might be able to help.

Dean Kremer shows up in this column again! He had one five-run clunker a week ago but his FIP since the All-Star break has been a tidy 4.27, a full run higher than his ERA. He has continued to keep the ball in the yard while maintaining his acceptable strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s not flashy, but he feels like a safe option over these final two weeks of the season. His schedule lines up to face the Guardians on the road and the Red Sox at home; the first game is a slam dunk and the second looks safe too since Boston’s offense is so horrendous on the road.

Since moving to the starting rotation full-time in mid-August, Zach Thompson has put up a 4.15 ERA backed by a 3.77 FIP in seven starts and another bulk relief appearance. His last start against the Phillies was the first time he had allowed more than three runs in an appearance during this stretch. His strikeout-minus-walk ratio is a solid 18.2% and he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball too much. If you can get him on your roster ahead of his next start on Wednesday, he’d be lined up to make three starts for your fantasy team, twice against the punchless Brewers and once against the Reds at home.

Sawyer Gipson-Long has impressed over his first two starts in the majors, allowing just three runs in 10 innings while striking out 16. His minor league strikeout rates took a big step forward this year and that success has followed him to the big leagues. It’s a super small sample size, but two of his pitches are running whiff rates over 50% and his sinker is earning a whiff on 35% of the swings against it. Those look like legit weapons and Stuff+ is impressed with the underlying physical characteristics of his pitch arsenal. He has starts in Oakland and against the Guardians at home to close out the season and both of those look pretty juicy. Ride the hot hand while you can and hope that he can continue his early success.

If you’re feeling really risky, Pedro Avila could be an option to turn to. Since joining the rotation in mid-August, he’s put up a 5.95 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in four starts and one bulk relief outing. Most of that damage came in a single game against the Dodgers where he allowed seven runs in just 2.2 innings; take that outing away and his ERA drops to 3.71. His next two outings should be against the Cardinals at home and then the White Sox on the road. Neither is a perfect matchup, so I’d recommend turning to him only if you’re completely desperate for innings to hit your cap.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• In standard head-to-head Ottoneu leagues, next week is the championship matchup. Double- and triple-check your probable pitchers and make a plan for the week ahead so you know your backup plans in case something goes sideways.
• It’s a really unfortunate week to roster any Phillies starters; they head to Atlanta for three games and then return home to face the still dangerous Mets for four. Zack Wheeler has a double-game week which would normally be a boon, but it’s going to force fantasy players into some tough decisions during the biggest week of their season.
• The Cubs get a pair of easy matchups next week, hosting the Pirates and Rockies for three games each. That makes nearly their entire rotation an easy pick to start with Jameson Taillon the only one I’d have any reservations about.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Freddy Peralta
• Jordan Montgomery
• Justin Verlander
• Ryan Pepiot
• Lance Lynn
• Javier Assad

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Braves have a double-header scheduled for Monday which could jumble up their rotation if they decide to call up a spot starter for one of those games. Kyle Wright is also on the mend and could be activated from the IL next week. Keep an eye on the listed probables because the Phillies and Marlins present matchups on opposite ends of the spectrum.
• It looks like the Blue Jays are the only team to have a couple of tough matchups next week when they host the Rangers and Red Sox. Every other team has a mix of matchups that don’t present any easy decisions.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Framber Valdez
• Brandon Woodruff
• Freddy Peralta
• Tyler Glasnow
• Sonny Gray
• Joe Ryan
• José Quintana
• Logan Gilbert
• Max Scherzer
• Dylan Cease

I went back and checked and it’s been more than two months since I’ve written up some under-rostered starters. This column is finally back with a few suggestions for the stretch run. Most Ottoneu head-to-head leagues began their playoffs this week and teams in points leagues will soon need to start really thinking about managing their innings cap. Here are a few starters who have been performing particularly well over the last few weeks who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues and a look at their remaining schedules.

With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch for the rest of the season, Griffin Canning is getting another shot to prove he can handle a starter’s workload. He had been working in a piggyback role with Chase Silseth but his last two appearances have been traditional starts. He’s excelled by allowing just three runs in 13 innings, striking out 16. The biggest difference I can discern in those two starts was a greater reliance on his hard changeup. It’s not his best pitch — that would be his slider — but it does help him keep left-handed batters at bay. He’s also got a pretty soft schedule to finish the season too with starts against the Guardians, Tigers, and A’s potentially on the docket.

Dean Kremer has been a frequent recommendation in this column this year and his up-and-down performance has likely kept his roster rate pretty low. He’s actually been on a pretty good run since the All-Star break with just a single start where he’s allowed more than three runs. His strikeout-minus-walk rate has been a fairly mediocre 11.3% during this stretch but he’s managed to keep the ball in the yard which had been his Achilles Heel previously. He has starts lined up against the Angels (today), Cardinals, Astros, Guardians, and potentially the Red Sox depending on how the Orioles shift their rotation with John Means’ impending return. I’d feel comfortable starting him in four of those five games.

Brandon Williamson has seemingly settled into the big leagues after a rough-ish start to his major league career. He’s posted a solid 3.93 FIP in the second half with a good 16.7% strikeout-minus-walk rate; over his last six starts, he’s racked up 39 strikeouts against just six walks. A slight uptick in fastball velocity and a greater reliance on his changeup are likely the drivers behind this recent stretch of good outings. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID-19 IL last weekend and his outlook for the rest of the season is a bit up in the air. If he returns quickly, he could potentially start against the Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates to end the season but that’s obviously very tentative at this point.

Paul Blackburn has been the A’s best starter this year (which isn’t actually saying much) and he’s taken a pretty big step forward as far as his underlying metrics go. A new slider has helped him push his strikeout rate up to a career-high. Combined with his very favorable home park, he’s got some sneaky upside on a team that no one is paying attention to. I’d avoid his next two starts against the Rangers and Astros, but he’s got the Mariners (at home), Tigers, and Angels lined up to finish out the season.

Of the five pitchers listed above, I think I’m most interested in adding Javier Assad for this stretch run. He pitched out of the Cubs bullpen for nearly the entire season before getting shifted to the rotation in August. He’s thrived in longer outings and has been one of the key contributors to Chicago’s summer ascent. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts since making the transition out of the ‘pen; his last two starts have been particularly impressive, allowing just a single run in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts and just 3 walks. He has scheduled starts against the Diamondbacks, the Rockies twice (avoid him in Coors Field), the Pirates, and the Brewers to finish out the season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Ottoneu playoffs begin for most head-to-head leagues next week.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox both have a pair of easier matchups next week. That’s great news for Toronto’s starters who have had a bunch of tougher matchups in the recent weeks. Dylan Cease is really the only starter who really benefits from Chicago’s scheduled series against the Royals and Tigers; the rest of their rotation is pretty flawed and would be risky starts no matter who the opponent is.
• The Orioles and Padres both have tough matchups next week. Baltimore is on the road to face the Angels and Red Sox — both teams are extremely difficult to face in their home stadiums — while San Diego faces the red hot Phillies and Astros. Be weary of the Marlins schedule too; they host the Dodgers before traveling to Philadelphia next weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Logan Webb
• Pablo López
• Justin Steele
• Zach Eflin
• José Berríos
• Cole Ragans
• Merrill Kelly