Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 2–8

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• Ottoneu head-to-head playoffs begin next week which means every single start will matter all the more and hitting your games started cap is of utmost importance.
• The schedule is a pretty mixed bag next week. The only team with a pair of good or bad matchups is the Orioles who get the punchless White Sox and Rays at home. Even though they’re not double red above, it’s probably a good idea to fade starters from the Giants and Guardians since both the Royals and Diamondbacks have been among the hottest teams in baseball recently.
• With the Monday holiday, a number of teams have a Tuesday off day in the middle of a series. Teams may use that opportunity to reslot their rotations or give some of their younger starters some additional rest. Keep an eye out for any last-minute schedule changes.