Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 8–14

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 8–14
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI ATL (141) TOR (104) Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Tommy Henry (?), Ryne Nelson Slade Cecconi
ATL @ARI (106) @SDP (66) Chris Sale (x2), Max Fried, Reynaldo López Charlie Morton (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach
BAL CHC (141) NYY (88) Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez Dean Kremer (vCHC), Albert Suárez 수아레즈 Cade Povich, Dean Kremer (vNYY)
BOS OAK (128) KCR (141) Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford Brayan Bello (x2), Josh Winckowski
CHC @BAL (53) @STL (123) Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon (@STL) Jameson Taillon (@BAL), Kyle Hendricks, Hayden Wesneski
CHW MIN (31) PIT (110) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Drew Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon Chris Flexen 플렉센, Mike Clevinger
CIN COL (121) MIA (128) Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo (?), Carson Spiers Andrew Abbott (x2), Frankie Montas
CLE @DET (165) @TBR (123) Tanner Bibee Gavin Williams (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2) Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco
COL @CIN (88) @NYM (77) Cal Quantrill (x2), Ryan Feltner Dakota Hudson (x2), Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber
DET CLE (106) LAD (88) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Kenta Maeda (x2), Keider Montero
HOU MIA (150) TEX (82) Ronel Blanco (vMIA), Framber Valdez Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco (vTEX) Shawn Dubin, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR @STL (123) @BOS (79) Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Alec Marsh, Brady Singer
LAA TEX (68) SEA (106) José Soriano, Davis Daniel (vSEA) Davis Daniel (vTEX), Tyler Anderson Roansy Contreras (x2), Griffin Canning
LAD @PHI (24) @DET (165) Tyler Glasnow Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller (@DET) Bobby Miller (@PHI), Landon Knack, James Paxton
MIA @HOU (26) @CIN (88) Trevor Rogers (x2), Kyle Tyler, Roddery Muñoz, Yonny Chirinos, Edward Cabrera
MIL PIT (123) WSN (108) Freddy Peralta Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale Colin Rea (x2) Dallas Keuchel
MIN @CHW (119) @SFG (132) Bailey Ober, Pablo López, Joe Ryan David Festa (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM WSN (130) COL (161) Christian Scott (x2), Luis Severino, Sean Manaea Jose Quintana (x2), David Peterson
NYY @TBR (123) @BAL (53) Nestor Cortes, Gerrit Cole Carlos Rodón (@TBR) Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón (@BAL)
OAK @BOS (79) @PHI (24) Joey Estes (x2), JP Sears, Mitch Spence Hogan Harris, Luis Medina
PHI LAD (40) OAK (99) Zack Wheeler (x2), Ranger Suárez Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola Michael Mercado
PIT @MIL (42) @CHW (119) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Luis L. Ortiz (x2) Bailey Falter, Martín Pérez (@CHW) Martín Pérez (@MIL)
SDP SEA (134) ATL (126) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Matt Waldron Randy Vásquez
SEA @SDP (66) @LAA (79) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, George Kirby Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo (?)
SFG TOR (115) MIN (90) Logan Webb Jordan Hicks (x2), Kyle Harrison Blake Snell (?) Hayden Birdsong
STL KCR (165) CHC (148) Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante (x2), Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson
TBR NYY (95) CLE (99) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley Shane Baz, Zack Littell
TEX LAA (104) @HOU (26) Max Scherzer Jon Gray (@LAA), Nathan Eovaldi Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray (@HOU)
TOR @SFG (132) @ARI (106) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman Yariel Rodríguez, José Berríos
WSN @NYM (77) @MIL (42) Jake Irvin (@NYM), MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (vSTL), Jake Irvin (@MIL) DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker (@MIL) Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • A few teams have pretty wonky schedules next week as the season heads into the All-Star break. The Mets wrap up a four-game, wrap around series against the Pirates before hosting a couple of pretty easy matchups in the Nationals and Rockies at home. While I won’t recommend every starter in their rotation, you can feel pretty good about starting Christian Scott for both of his games as well as Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
  • The Nationals also have a four-game, wrap around series against the Cardinals that wraps up on Monday. That gives Mitchell Parker a more palatable start before his tougher matchup against the Brewers later in the week.
  • Not only does St. Louis have that weird Monday game, they have a two-game series against the Royals, an off day on Thursday, and then a four-game set against the Cubs that includes a scheduled double-header on Saturday. The off day means they can keep their entire staff on schedule without having to callup a spot starter for the twin bill over the weekend. And like the Mets, all three of their opponents next week look pretty weak; it’s an easy call to start most of their starters next week.
  • The Cubs don’t have the same luxury the off day affords the Cardinals so keep an eye on who their announced starters are for that weekend series.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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