Now that we’re more than two months into the season, we can do a bit of digging to see if we can find pitchers who have improved from month-to-month, specifically looking at Stuff+ since it’s pretty reactionary to changes in a pitcher’s repertoire. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 50% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

There are three starters from Oakland listed above which is a bit of a surprise. JP Sears is the most recognizable of that trio as he’s enjoyed spurts of success over the last two seasons. His downfall has been a particularly bad home run problem — something that particularly hurts his value in Ottoneu. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s adjusted his pitch mix to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker to try and generate more contact on the ground. His flat four-seam fastball will always encourage fly ball contact but he generates the majority of his swings-and-misses with that pitch so he needs to strike a balance between whiffs and contact management. Recently, he’s been able to thread that needle; over his last three starts, he’s allowed just seven runs in 19 innings while running a pretty good 2.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and most importantly, keeping the ball in the park.

The other two Oakland starters are a bit more unproven. Mitch Spence was a rule-5 pick this offseason and is getting a chance to prove himself in the rotation over the last few weeks or so. Across his first five starts in the majors, he’s allowed just nine runs in 26 innings and is running a solid 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio out of the rotation. His underlying Stuff+ metrics look pretty decent, with his slider standing out in particular. He’s also running a groundball rate over 50% which gives him a little more value in Ottoneu if he can continue avoiding the long ball.

Pressed into the rotation for the same reasons Spence was, Joey Estes is making the most of it as well. A clunker of a start against the Astros back on May 16 is weighing heavily on his results, but outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 23.1 innings in his other four starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stuff+ also loves his slider and cutter and his command of his four-pitch mix has been outstanding so far.

Spencer Arrighetti has taken a while to acclimate to the big leagues but he’s been on a pretty good run of starts recently. He’s allowed four runs across his last 14 innings with 19 strikeouts. His biggest issue is his lack of command; his walk rate is pretty high and he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his starts this year. His Stuff+ scores have improved pretty dramatically from the first month of the season, with most of the improvements stemming from his fastballs. He’s in the same zone as Sears where his heaters get crushed when batters put them in play, but he’s also generating a significant number of whiffs with the pitch. Right now, he’s found that balance between earning swings-and-misses while also avoiding too much hard contact.

With injuries decimating the Orioles rotation, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 is getting another shot as a starter. So far, he’s allowed just seven runs in 29.1 innings out of the rotation. All the things I said about him back on April 23 still hold true:

“His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far.”

The ridiculous whiff rate on his fastball has fallen to merely above average with more exposure to big league hitters, but he’s still putting up solid results anyway. His ceiling might not be as high as expected based on his first three starts of the year, but he’s a solid fill-in starter who can provide quality innings for your team.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• It’s pretty surprising to see the matchups against the Astros and the Braves highlighted in blue above (indicating that they’re an easier matchup). Both of these potent lineups are mired in pretty significant slumps — Atlanta has posted a .286 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Astros aren’t much better at .288 — and they both struggle to produce on the road. That means that the Giants and Orioles have a sneakily decent matchup against these two ball clubs you’d normally want to avoid.
• Speaking of San Francisco, they’ve got a homestand next week against the aforementioned Astros and then the hapless Angels. The Diamondbacks also look like they have a pair of easier matchups lined up next week; they host the Angels and White Sox and could potentially welcome back Zac Gallen from the IL if his rehab goes quickly.
• There are a bunch of teams with two tough matchups next week. The Royals probably have the most difficult pair of opponents in the Yankees and Dodgers and I’m fading every Kansas City pitcher, even Cole Ragans in LA. The Blue Jays, Brewers, and Reds each have hot hitting opponents on the docket too and you’d probably be better off avoiding having any pitchers from those teams in your lineups next week.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

• The Mets and Phillies head across the Atlantic next weekend for a two game series played in London Stadium. Based on the limited park factors from the previous two series played in England, I’d recommend sitting your starters for both teams. The two games should be pretty high scoring affairs.
• It looks like the Astros have a tough couple of matchups against the Cardinals and the Angels next week. You wouldn’t think that those two teams have high octane offenses, but St. Louis has been playing extremely well recently and Angel Stadium is a particularly easy place to knock balls over the fence. Framber Valdez is probably the only pitcher in their rotation who is matchup proof.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves have a nice pair of home matchups against the Nationals and A’s next week. They’re in the midst of a long stretch of games without an off day which means they might turn to a sixth starter next week to keep the workload off their starters, so make sure you’re checking the announced starters for their games.
• The Cubs also have a couple of easier matchups against the Twins and Reds. I can’t unreservedly recommend starting every pitcher in their rotation, but even guys like Jameson Taillon or Ben Brown are good bets to turn in decent starts next week.
• The rest of the schedule is pretty mixed and there isn’t really a team who is facing a particularly tough week. The Rockies probably come the closest as they have a series at home against the Guardians and then head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. You’re probably not rostering any Colorado starters anyway though.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• After playing the Dodgers in Los Angeles this weekend, the Reds return home for a tough homestand against the Padres and the Dodgers (again). That makes for a pretty tough slate of matchups for their starters. Philadelphia also has a tougher schedule next week with three against the Rangers and then a weekend series in Colorado. Thanks to his elite groundball rate, Ranger Suárez might be the only pitcher who you’d want to start in Coors Field, though you’d have to be pretty desperate for the innings to take that risk.
• There are a bunch of teams who have a pair of easier matchups lined up for next week: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Orioles, and Rays. For the most part, you’ll want to start any of the pitchers you own from those teams, though I’d be a little weary of the weekend series the Brewers have in Boston. The Red Sox offense has been scuffling a bit recently, but they’re much more potent at home.
• Pitchers possibly coming off the Injured List sometime next week include Kenta Maeda, Tylor Megill, Ryan Pepiot, Grayson Rodriguez, Blake Snell, José Urquidy, and Garrett Whitlock. In general, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting an injured starter back into your lineup, but Rodriguez’s projected start against the White Sox might be too good to pass up.

We’re a little more than a quarter of the way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is still just as pressing now as it was a month ago. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 40% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

After profiling Mitchell Parker last month, I’ve got a couple more Nationals starters on my radar. (BTW, Parker has continued to pitch well against some pretty tough competition; he’s got a 3.02 FIP through five starts against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Orioles.) Both Trevor Williams and Jake Irvin have been surprisingly solid to start this season as part of a Washington starting rotation that has been much better than expected. Williams has had spurts of success in the past, but not like this. The biggest difference maker for him has been the addition of a sweeper to his repertoire that immediately became his best pitch. It’s running a whiff rate north of 40% and batters are producing a .227 xwOBA off the big breaker. He’s yet to allow a home run this year, which is certainly the product of some good luck, but his xFIP is a solid 3.79 and his xERA is an even better 3.01. The rest of his arsenal looks pretty unchanged which means he’ll need to keep leaning on this new pitch to maintain his success. It’s probably worth riding the hot streak for now, but be weary of quick regression.

Like Williams, Irvin has added a new pitch to his repertoire, a cutter in his case. This new pitch hasn’t had the same effect as the breaking ball, though it has given Irvin a fourth pitch to deepen his repertoire. Instead, he’s found success by cutting his walk rate by more than six points down to 4.3%. Across the board, his plate discipline stats look greatly improved; he’s pitching in the zone more often, but his chase rate is up a few points and his contact rate is down a few points. That’s a pretty good combination of improvements and he’s reaped the benefits. Beyond his improved walk rate, his peripherals aren’t as good looking as Williams (a 3.60 xFIP and a 4.79 xERA), but he’s probably good enough now to stream when the matchup is right as long as his hot streak continues.

Cole Irvin was turning heads this spring with some gaudy velocity numbers, but that hasn’t carried over into the regular season. Nevertheless, he’s been a solid member of the Orioles rotation as they’ve struggled with some injuries to start the season. Even though they’ve gotten a bit more healthy with Kyle Bradish and John Means coming off the IL, Irvin should keep his job in the rotation thanks to his excellent numbers through his first seven starts of the season. The biggest change for Irvin has been his usage of his curveball. That breaking ball is now his “primary” pitch at the expense of his changeup and cutter. Batters have produced a .296 xwOBA off the big breaker, helping him manage contact against him to the tune of a .267 BABIP. As a lefty pitching in the now cavernous Camden Yards, his home park benefits him a bit more too. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from his career norms so it seems like a lot of his success can be attributed to some pretty good batted ball luck. Still, his xFIP is a decent 3.82 while his xERA is a little higher at 3.99.

John Schreiber turned in a solid effort as a setup guy back in 2022 for the Red Sox. Injuries derailed his season last year and he was shipped off to Kansas City during the offseason. He’s rediscovered himself with his new ballclub and has become one of the key members of their bullpen. There are a few red flags however; his strikeout rate is about ten points lower than it was a few years ago because his sweeper just isn’t earning many swings-and-misses these days. He’s been effective despite the lack of punch outs and is earning high leverage work regularly. Plus, the Royals current closer, James McArthur, has looked a little shaky during his last few outings so there could be an opportunity for Schreiber to sneak in a few saves here and there in the future.

Injuries and command issues have always held Austin Adams back from realizing his skills as a high-leverage reliever. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced in his career but he’s only accumulated 108.1 innings over the last five seasons. Finally healthy, he’s been a productive member of the A’s surprisingly dominant bullpen. Sitting behind Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg in the pecking order, he’s collected 11 holds in just 13.2 innings. What’s more encouraging is that his walk rate has dropped to a career-low 8.6%. He might not get much work in the eighth or ninth innings, but he’s been a fantastic bridge to get to those two relief aces behind him.

Luke Weaver has emerged as a multi-inning fireman in the Yankees bullpen this year. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last ten outings encompassing 15.1 innings with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup has turned into an elite weapon for him with a whiff rate north of 50% and just a .201 xwOBA allowed off the pitch. His ability to work multiple innings has eased the pressure off a shaky New York bullpen and they’re leaning on him pretty hard to get to their closer in the ninth.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The only schedule quirk next week is a four-game, home-and-home series between the Phillies and Mets. They’ll start off with two games in New York and then two games in Philadelphia. The matchups are poor for the Mets no matter where they’re playing since the Phillies offense has been so good recently. For the Phillies, the matchup is a lot better in the pitcher friendly confines of Citi Field.
• Teams to avoid with a pair of tough matchups include the Guardians and White Sox. Cleveland travels to Texas to face the Rangers and then hosts the red hot Twins. You’re probably not rostering any Chicago starters except for Erick Fedde and he’s the only recommendation I have from their rotation in a revenge game against his former team, the Nationals.
• The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. Arizona hosts the Reds and the Tigers, both of whom have struggling offenses. Los Angeles travels to San Francisco and then hosts the Reds.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a bunch of teams with two off days next week: the Blue Jays, Braves, Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox. These teams may take the extra rest day to reset their rotation so keep an eye on their announced starters to make sure the matchups are where you want them.
• The Rangers and A’s have a scheduled double-header on Wednesday and both teams will need to call up a spot starter. Texas will likely give Jack Leiter his second big league start and it comes against a surprisingly decent Oakland ballclub.
• It’s possible we’ll see the activations of Walker Buehler, Justin Steele, Nick Pivetta, Frankie Montas, Bryan Woo, and Braxton Garrett next week. Those pitching staffs will be in flux as they figure out how to fit those injured pitchers back into the rotation.
• The Blue Jays and Nationals have a tough week ahead. Toronto travels to Philadelphia for a couple of games before hosting the red hot Twins. The Nationals have a two-game Beltway series on tap and then will travel to Boston and the cozy confines of Fenway Park.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves and Rays look like they have pretty easy schedules next week. Tampa hosts the Tigers before traveling to face the hapless White Sox next weekend while Atlanta hosts the Marlins and Guardians. The Giants also have six games at home next week which should be a boon to their starting rotation.
• On the other hand, the Reds and Guardians have tough slates next week. Cincinnati hosts the Phillies before heading out to face the Rangers on the road while Cleveland hosts the Red Sox and then travel to Atlanta over the weekend.
• The Astros have a weird week with two off days and just five games including two in Colorado next weekend.
• The Phillies might activate Taijuan Walker from the IL next week. Keep an eye on their rotation to see how they handle his activation while allowing Spencer Turnbull to continue his hot start to the season.
• The Red Sox will need to make a roster move to find a fill in for the injured Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Right now, Naoyuki Uwasawa is listed on the Probables Grid. In addition, Boston used Cooper Criswell as a bulk reliever behind an opener yesterday. If they continue that pattern next week, make sure he’s in the right SP or RP slot in your lineup depending on how the Sox deploy him.