Archive for Strategy

My RotoGraphs Mock Team — Slow Draft Style

And six weeks later, a team was born…

That’s right. After just six short weeks and hundreds of emails, we finally finished the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Slow Draft Style. The process was definitely cumbersome, to say the least, but we all made it through relatively unscathed. Our fearless leader and draft overseer, Eno Sarris, published the results five rounds at a time (the links to all can be found in this post) and now it’s time to reveal our teams. Well, I don’t know if everyone is going to do it, but here’s mine: Read the rest of this entry »


Edge%: Another Fantasy Tool

Bill Petti and I have been looking at pitches thrown at the edge of the strike zone over the last few days. Pitchers who throw a higher percentage of pitches on the edge perform better than those pitchers who throw a lower percentage. Edge% is not going to change the core traits of pitcher talent, high strike outs and low walks, but it is a nice tool to help differentiate between two similar pitchers.

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RotoGraphs Mock Draft Rounds 11-15: Catcher Results

Through the first 10 rounds of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft, a draft for a single-catcher league, we saw a total of eight backstops come off the board. In an effort to see how our picks matched up with public opinion, we’ve been comparing the results to ADP found on both Mock Draft Central (MDC) and the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). However, given how unreliable MDC data is right now due to small sample sizes and the fact that they don’t differentiate between one and two-catcher league mocks, we’re basically casting that ADP data aside and just matching up with that from the NFBC, a two-catcher league draft. With the current depth at the position, it should have been safe to assume that the top backstops would go a bit earlier in our draft than in the NFBC, however, in looking back at the comparisons, that was not the case. In fact, save for everyone agreeing that Buster Posey was a consensus late-first round pick, nothing went as expected. Read the rest of this entry »


Adjust, Then Trust Past Busts Again

It’s 2013. I just drafted Lucas Duda again.

I just can’t quit him I guess. No, I’m not a glutton for punishment. I can give you the caveats — it was pick #328 in a 14-team league with five outfielders — and we can talk about Lucas Duda specifically, but that might not be the point in the end.

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Bargain or Bust: Carlos Gomez and Eric Hosmer

Yesterday, Eno Sarris posted another installment of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Rounds 11 through 15. You had the usual opportunity to comment on picks that you liked or didn’t like and while your silence with regard to my selections tells me that no one thought any of mine were either reaches or wasted picks, I would still like to do a little crowdsourcing here and find out where everyone stands on particular players and where they are going in drafts from now through the start of the 2013 season. Welcome to Bargain or Bust. Read the rest of this entry »


Draft Strategy: Do Not Ignore ADP

Average draft position, or more commonly referred to as ADP, has become an important piece of information for snake drafters over the past couple of years. We here at RotoGraphs mention it in our articles all the time when analyzing players in the pre-season as we try to get a handle on where fantasy players are getting drafted. But, there are still fantasy owners out there who believe that ADP is useless and completely ignore it during their drafts. I think that’s a huge mistake.

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Draft Strategy: Waiting on SB – An Ode to the Readers

With a fair amount of attention paid to my Michael Bourn man-crush piece and so many of you saying how you prefer to grab power early and wait on speed, I decided to put your methodology into action and see where it took me. In another industry mock draft that took place just last night, I painfully resisted the urge to take Bourn, picked around the available speed and made a few different choices. While I cannot divulge the full results of the mock draft out of respect for the site that will be using it as part of its upcoming draft kit, I can discuss a few things in relation to my selections and this particular topic. Read the rest of this entry »


Is My Fantasy Man-Crush on Michael Bourn Wrong?

The text came in on January 1, 2013 at 12:01 AM.

“Happy New Year! Michael Bourn in the 4th round? Dubious.”

Happy New Year! Last of the true burners. Still a good value in roto-based leagues,” I responded.

Juan Pierre in Round 20,” was what followed. Read the rest of this entry »


What to make of Travis d’Arnaud

This week the Mets exchanged Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey for Blue Jays catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud (pronounced dar-no). The deal is logical for two teams moving in opposite directions. While the merit of the Blue Jays’ off-season moves are not above reproach, the Mets are in no position to compete in 2013 as evidenced by their attempt to field a team without a single outfielder. But, that’s of little consequence to us here at RotoGraphs. Here, we want to know who Travis d’Arnaud is and how this trade affects the prospect Comrade Newman called the best catcher prospect he has ever seen. Read the rest of this entry »


ChiSox Say Reliability is the New Sexy With Keppinger

With Kevin Youkilis headed out the door and the third baseman market looking pretty bleak, the Chicago White Sox opted to go for the relatively cheap but always reliable Jeff Keppinger to fill their vacancy at the hot corner for 2013. He got a three-year deal worth roughly $12 million and word has it that his final decision was based on the fact that he was guaranteed a starting job as opposed to keeping a spot warm for someone else, as would have been the case with the Yankees. So what does this move to the Leroy Brown’s neighborhood do for Keppinger’s fantasy value? Is he worth drafting? Read the rest of this entry »