Death To One-Size-Fits-All

I’m here to introduce or perhaps reinforce an idea today. People always, always, ALWAYS oversimplify things. Why didn’t such-and-such team win? It’s because so-and-so made a bad pitch. We readily gobble up that answer even though it’s probably one of a thousand ways to explain why a team lost a contest. Fantasy baseball has its share of oversimplification too.

Fantasy baseball is a complex beast. I’ve probably written over 30 articles about trading strategy in different leagues, formats, time periods, etc. Each article contains different information than its predecessors. There are tried and true ways of doing things, but always there is another wrinkle, another twist, or another perspective to consider.

Even in these glorified halls, I see commenters eagerly dismiss strategies that diverge from their own line of thinking. This bothers me. It’s why we’re here today. There’s nothing inherently wrong with weighing a strategy and deciding it doesn’t match your skill set as an owner. I’m just concerned that sometimes the weighing part doesn’t happen.

By my own line of thinking, there are two essentials in fantasy strategy.

1. Be mentally agile: You can think of this as being ready to hit all pitches. You might go into the draft prepared to hammer a fastball. Then Chris Davis doesn’t show up for the year, and Bryce Harper fizzles, and…you get the picture. Life throws curve balls when you’re sitting fastball. Will you be ready to adjust?
2. Always strive to be one step ahead of the competition: In other words, zig when others zag.

They’re related ideas. The first is an ability to react and the second is an ability to predict. In both cases, you’re demonstrating flexibility. A one-size-fits-all strategy is not suited to making adjustments.

Let’s put some examples in play for clarity. For those of you who bother to open ottoneu-related articles, you may have noticed I wrote a few about the arbitration allocation process. There is a generally accepted “best” strategy. It involves maximizing the long term impact of your dollars. The specifics aren’t important. There is also an alternative strategy, which involves pumping more talent into the draft. We’ve had some arguments over the relative merits of both approaches. Partisans emerged and debate grew fierce.

In general, this is a good thing. It’s what I want when I write a strategy article. Discussing the best approach is informative to me and I assume it helps the readers too. I learn about fantasy orthodoxy and taboos. This helps me to fuse together new ways of approaching old problems.

I’m not concerned with ottoneu owners preferring one allocation strategy over another. I’m concerned that a few aren’t even considering the utility of alternative strategies. With this example, the long term approach can be thought of as the “safe” play. The alternative requires a specific use case or disposition. And always there are other, fringier strategies to pursue. They all have their time and place.

Here’s a different type of example. I have a home league that has run for five seasons. This was the first year I didn’t finish first or second (third). I don’t bring this up to brag, but rather because it’s an excellent example of the different ways to skin a cat.

In year one, my top position player targets were too expensive, so I skimped on big ticket items, purchased a first-rate rotation, and finished with a perfect 60 score in pitching (still placed second by 4 runs or one point of OPS). The next two seasons were supported by a clutch of great keepers. By year four, I had cashed in most of the best names. For some reason, closers were spurned in the draft, so I bought five great ones and rode bullpen dominance to the championship. Last year, I dealt one of my last mega-keepers prior to the season (Harper) for a ridiculous haul. The deal carried me for most of the season.

There are a couple strategies that have remained consistent year-to-year. The league has deep rosters with six bench spots and no limit on waiver moves. I frequently turn over starters, relievers, and back end position players. Sometimes my roster is stable for a couple weeks at a time, but I usually eclipse 100 moves. My draft plan has been different every year. I’ve attacked the categories in a handful of ways. It’s possible to succeed in one environment with a variety of strategies.

That’s today’s message. You should seek strategies that are suited to your skill set, and most importantly, fun. Just realize that there are a lot of ways to win any given league. Maybe you should challenge yourself by trying them? You should at least keep an open mind.