It’s been a wild week in the Bell household! My wife and I welcomed our third child into the world last Friday… A healthy baby boy to go along with our two lovely daughters. On top of that my oldest daughter played in her first tee-ball game. My heartstrings were pulled a lot last weekend.

With all of that going on, I also received an invitation to play in a test league for a new fantasy baseball format. You may recall that Ron Shandler created and ran a monthly game format during the 2015 season. The game was intended to be a middle ground between the ultra-fast, yet time consuming, DFS format and the sluggish grind of the six-month long rotisserie game. That original incarnation of the game was closed down but league hosting site Fantrax.com is attempting to bring back a slightly different version. They set up two test leagues composed of various industry analysts (and me, somehow!) in order to garner feedback and suggestions on how to make the monthly format work.

What follows is an outline of the rules, the participants, and the strategy I used in selected my roster. After I share my process, I’d love your feedback and thoughts on what you would have done differently. Read the rest of this entry »

In DFS, a common strategy to maximize the chances of placing highly in a large tournament is to enter several different lineups. In order to differentiate the lineups you enter and decrease risk, while still basing your lineups on sound data and analytics, you can utilize the concept of maximum player exposure.

The phrase “maximum player exposure” may sound complex, but it’s actually fairly simple. Once you select a maximum player exposure percentage on SaberSim, no player will appear in more than that percentage of the total lineups you generate. For example, if you were to create ten lineups and set the maximum player exposure at 50%, then Clayton Kershaw would appear in no more than five of those ten lineups. This allows for minimization of risk, as you’ll have a greater variety of players and a one bad performance won’t end your day right then and there.

Though it’s tempting to simplify the process of lineup creation by entering a single lineup into a higher-cost tournament, multi-lineup generation offers the ability to increase your odds of hitting just the right combination of players. At the same time, adjusting player exposure allows you to broaden your player pool, thus increasing the odds that you will cash a few lineups, and decreasing the risk of a big loss.

DFS Hitter Projections & Fun with Conditionals

Baltimore Orioles
There are three Orioles in the top ten projected offensive players for DraftKings tonight. Baltimore faces Mike Pelfrey in Camden Yards, and the team is projected to score 5.34 runs per game on average. The top three projected Orioles are Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones, with Davis as the top projected player across all games today. Mark Trumbo and Joey Rickard round out the top five.

Conditional Target: Mike Pelfrey
There are several different routes you could go when applying Conditionals to achieve an optimal Orioles stack. In the following example, I added a Conditional of Mike Pelfrey allowing at least five runs, and applied it to the optimized lineup. Notice that in addition to stacking an optimal combination of Orioles batters, the optimizer also included Ubaldo Jimenez in a pitcher slot, which is partly influenced by the Pelfrey >= 5 RA Conditional; when Pelfrey allows that many runs, Jimenez’s odds of earning a win drastically increase.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are projected to score 4.45 runs per game in their home matchup against James Shields and the Padres. Miller Park is a hitter-friendly park, and especially increases home run production. Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and Jonathan Villar all rank in the top ten, and Alex Presley ranks in the top twenty as far as projected DraftKings points for tonight’s games.
A Conditional of Jonathan Villar scoring at least two runs results in an optimal stack of Brewers hitters based on that conditional, and also ensures that James Shields is very unlikely to be included.

Notice that while Ubaldo Jimenez is also included in this optimal lineup, his projected point total is slightly less than it was in the optimal lineup when Pelfrey allowed at least five runs. That’s because the Conditional of Villar scoring at least two runs in his game against the Padres has no effect on the totally separate game of Tigers at Orioles.

DFS Pitcher Projections
The top three pitchers for tonight based on projected DraftKings points are Clayton Kershaw, Vincent Velasquez, and David Price. These projections are mostly in line with the pricing, but just outside the top three is Jimmy Nelson, who faces the San Diego Padres at home. There are a couple more potential value plays outside of the top five, with Ubaldo Jimenez coming in at number six and Aaron Blair at seven.

Streaming Pitcher Options for Friday

Ross Stripling (11% Y!)
Stripling faces Michael Wacha and the Cardinals at home in his Friday matchup. The Dodgers are projected as favorites in that game (55%), and Stripling is projected to have a solid outing (0.38 W/G, 4.71 K/G, 3.68 ERA).

Nicholas Tropeano (8% Y!)
Tropeano faces Nate Karns and the Mariners in Seattle. The Angels are projected as underdogs, but Tropeano is still projected well enough to warrant a stream (0.36 W/G, 4.63 K/G, 3.79 ERA).

Conclusion
There are countless ways in which you can create DFS strategies using SaberSim projections and lineup creation tools. In addition to Conditionals, there are also features that allow you to exclude players, adjust exposure, and much more. To keep you fully informed on all the possibilities, we will continue to explore more strategies in the coming days and weeks. Also, remember to check back for updated projections throughout the day. As teams release official lineups, SaberSim automatically updates accordingly and reruns simulations in order to stay as current as possible.

Around this time of year when trade season starts open up in earnest, you consistently hear one maxim: buy-low, sell-high. It’s the tried-and-true method of trading and is ideal for what I hope are obvious reasons. However, it’s a lot easier said than done, particularly in the internet age of fantasy baseball. The statistical revolution and internet have colluded to equip all fantasy managers with any amount of data they desire about their players. You will still see lopsided deals, but outside of blatant cases of collusion, a deal that you deem as lopsided is still just a difference in player valuation.

The market inefficiency is in buying-high (I would be much more cautious with the inverse, but there could also be a market to exploit by selling low). Given how often fantasy managers are looking to sell high, there is a larger pool players to choose from and of course there is also more willingness to move them which adds to the likelihood of a deal getting done instead trying to pry someone your leaguemate wasn’t looking to sell in the first place. Buying high is easier, but it can be tricky (You don’t want to get smoked, but we’re talking buying-high, not buying-highest. you should never buy-highest… in any sense of the word). However, some players are seen as sell-high candidates while having a good shot at maintaining a high level of production and their price won’t always be commensurate with said production making them the ideal buy-high candidates.

Here are five such candidates:

John Jaso: The hang up with Jaso is that he only has first base eligibility and the power-hitting focus at the position leaves Jaso coming up short. His career high of 10 HRs came back in 2012. While he does lack the power to carry first base, he is an interesting corner infielder or utility as a high batting average hitter atop a proficient lineup. Plus, let’s not completely sleep on the fact that he has hit three homers, putting him on pace to crush his previous high.

He’s pacing for 14 more while the projections see 6-10 more (6 for ZiPS, 10 for Steamer & Depth Charts). Above all else, he needs to stay healthy, something that has been a career-long challenge as he’s never cleared 110 games played. If the perfect world scenario plays out and he maintains this pace, he’ll be this year’s Logan Forsythe. I’d settle for this year’s Mark Canha.

Read the rest of this entry »

In order to differentiate DFS lineups in large tournaments, you can utilize a maneuver commonly referred to as “fading.” A fade consists of avoiding a pitcher who may be highly owned — for instance, Masahiro Tanaka against the Orioles today — in order to capitalize on the off-chance that he has a subpar outing. By using SaberSim’s Conditionals to fade a pitcher, you will also determine which combination of opposing hitters would be optimal in the event of that pitcher having a below-average outing.

Read the rest of this entry »

What is your strength when it comes to fantasy baseball?

Is it trading? Draft preparation and execution? In-season management? Identifying likely hitter busts? Or spotting that diamond in the rough pitcher? A lot of us seem to believe we’re adept at identifying those pitchers. Does that describe you? I’ll come back to this later.

Please help me out:

Do you think you’re better at identifying undervalued and breakout hitters or pitchers?

— SmartFantasyBaseball (@smartfantasybb) April 26, 2016

You likely have a strength. And you should know what it is. You want to be able to exploit this strength as an advantage.

Assuming you are aware of your “edge”, let’s take a closer look at how it’s very possible you’re use of that strength might actually be putting you at a disadvantage. Read the rest of this entry »

I practice extreme patience in fantasy baseball because to me there’s nothing worse than overreacting on a guy, cutting him, and then watching him get back on track for one of your competitors. However, I also realize that sometimes the patience is exercised to a fault, especially in shallower leagues (10-13 team mixers where the waiver wire is going to be more plentiful). I’m trying to strike a better balance this year and be willing to take chances on available guys, even if it means cutting someone who might get back on track, but just isn’t performing right now.

Of course, to pick someone up, someone has to go. And that decision is often the more agonizing of the two so today I’ve got three arms drafted in the top 60 starters of NFBC leagues that I’m ready to move on from in favor of the latest hot prospect being called up or fast starters with some bankable skills changes behind their run. We’ve already seen Blake Snell, Henry Owens, Aaron Blair, and Jose Berrios get the call. And sure, they could flop and have you back on the wire picking one of these guys back up, but for now I’m comfortable cutting them to invest elsewhere in the hopes of a big payday.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bear with me for a bit as I venture down an unusual path for Rotographs.

I’m not much of an NBA fan. As I’ve gotten older, I’ve pretty much devoted my fandom to Major League Baseball, the NFL, and college football & basketball. I’ve watched about 10 minutes of my hometown Pistons this year. A couple weeks ago I caught a late night Warriors game so I could have the Steph Curry experience (nope, didn’t even tune in for #73).

Despite the NBA not being on my radar, about a week and a half ago I kept seeing mentions about the “Hinkie retirement letter” in my Twitter feed. A lot of them. As soon as I determined that “Hinkie” was Sam Hinkie, General Manager for the Philadelphia 76ers, I said to myself, “Don’t care, moving on now.”

Then the next night, as I was walking around the house getting my Fitbit steps in (#dadlife), I saw this tweet from Jonathan Bales:

I’ll stop now. In short, this might be the greatest thing I’ve ever read. Highly recommend if you want to be +EV at life.

— Jonathan Bales (@BalesFootball) April 7, 2016

If you’re not much of a DFS player, you may not know Bales. He’s the author of the DFS series “Fantasy Football for Smart People” and “Fantasy Baseball for Smart People” and has become quite well known for all of his work in the DFS arena.

You don’t have to be a DFS player to enjoy Bales’ work (this is not a DFS article). I don’t have much time to play DFS regularly, but I love his work and thought process. So I had to go down the rabbit hole to see what he was talking about…

And it was this darn “Hinkie retirement letter” again. The greatest thing he’s ever read? Now I have to check it out. Read the rest of this entry »

The first week of the season is always a fun time of the year. The limited amount of data in the books makes it difficult to provide any sort of valuable analysis and any advice is going to essentially be given based on the tiniest of sample sizes. So what’s a fantasy player to do? Nothing. That’s right, the best moves you can make now are no moves.

Read the rest of this entry »

Do you suffer from early season regret? Or is it just me?

I’m a value-based drafter. I don’t go into the draft with a plan. I have my values and I sit back, watch the draft unfold, and let the opportunities come to me. I’m also an accountant. I love Excel.

In other words, I’m boring.

The old guys. The boring guys. The “cool” players from two years ago or maybe even ten years ago… That’s the type of player that usually ends up on my teams. Certainly not the fun new toys. I’m told it’s the smart way to play the game. I’m stock-piling value. Increasing my chances of winning.

And I hate it.

I’m also pushing 35. So maybe I’m experiencing early onset mid-life crisis. But I’m second guessing my way of doing business. You might have seen a little bit of the second guessing here. And then I went through a 10 team AL-only draft and it really sent me into a tail spin. Take a look at what’s causing me to question my purpose in life:

Read the rest of this entry »

If you are new to Ottoneu, one of the first things you’ll realize is that the list of rostered players is deep. One strategy that these larger rosters allow for is the ability to platoon players. While this strategy isn’t too useful with 25 man rosters, it’s perfect for the 40 man rosters of Ottoneu.  Many teams utilize it in some capacity, but it can also lead to certain pitfalls. Let’s review a couple guidelines to platooning

1.) Target good home parks and left handed hitters

The goal in using a player in a platoon situation is to maximize your Points Per Game (P/G) by starting them in favorable situations. Unlike a major league team, you do not need to pair hitters who kill left and right handed pitching respectively. Instead, focus on platoons which are likely to yield a high number of usable games.  (This is very important as meeting the game cap greatly increases your chances of success.) The two most common splits I find myself building platoons off of are home/road splits and left/right splits. In these scenarios, I am targeting players who play in favorable home parks or perform well against righties.

A couple players who I plan to use in these types of platoons in 2016 include (vRHP) Chris Coghlan, Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, and (@Home) Ben Paulsen.  There are plenty of other options as well! Coghlan, Moss, and Reddick all hit righties well, while Paulsen plays in Coors field. In each of these scenarios, those mentioned are likely to put up better production than their overall lines may suggest, and is likely to cost something similar to a 5^th OF or bench player.  As you look for players who perform well in these types of situations, you’ll stumble upon a few players you really like. Feel free to post some of your favorites in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »