DFS Strategy: Utilizing Percentile Projections

Traditionally, daily fantasy sports projections use average projected points as the primary method of evaluating players. While one can get a sense of a player’s consistency and upside based on their batting profile and game log, it is difficult to accurately and precisely project players’ upside in terms of DFS points and performance relative to each other.

This is where percentiles come in. If we have a full distribution of projected performance for each player, as SaberSim provides, we can utilize percentiles to more accurately estimate player upside. Here’s what that means in simple terms: to calculate the usual mean point projections, we simply take the average of every point total for the player in the 10,000 simulated games. On the other hand, to calculate 75th percentile, we find the point on the player’s point distribution at which 75% of simulated games falls below, or 25% falls above.

These percentile values give us more information about the distribution of possible results than just the average point totals. A player whose value comes primarily from home runs will generally have a higher 75th, 85th, 95th percentile than a player whose value comes from singles and walks. In addition, players who face teams with poor bullpens may also have higher percentiles relative to their average or median points, because of the simulated games in which the opposing starter is pulled early.

You can view percentile projections on SaberSim on the DFS projections page and utilize them to create optimized lineups on the DFS Lineup Creation tool.

DFS Projections: Batters

The top projected offenses today are the Reds and Rockies in Coors field. Following them are the Mariners vs the Padres (Colin Rea), the Red Sox vs the Orioles (Ubaldo Jimenez), and the Cubs against the Dodgers (Julio Urias).

The Mariners (5.29 R/game)
The Mariners face Colin Rea in Petco Park. Rea has had a rough season so far, and his projection today foresees more of the same. The top Mariners by projected DraftKings points are: Robinson Cano (9.49), Kyle Seager (9.02), Seth Smith (8.89), Nelson Cruz (8.74), and Adam Lind (8.39).

Red Sox (4.94 R/game)
The Red Sox face Ubaldo Jimenez in Baltimore, and are projected to give the right-hander a tough test. The top Red Sox by projected DraftKings points are: David Ortiz (10.25), Mookie Betts (9.29), Hanley Ramirez (8.20), Xander Bogaerts (7.90), and Dustin Pedroia (7.84).

Cubs (4.91 R/game)
The Cubs face young Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias at home in Wrigley Field today. The top Cubs by projected DraftKings points are: Kris Bryant (9.42), Anthony Rizzo (8.87), Dexter Fowler (8.22), Ben Zobrist (7.92), and Jason Heyward (7.84).

DFS Projections: Pitchers

The simulator projects Madison Bumgarner to have the highest DraftKings point total today, which is unsurprising considering his price tag. As far as potential value plays, Dallas Keuchel and Jerad Eickhoff are both in the top five projected pitchers, but are outside of the top five price-wise.

Conclusion

There are countless ways to create DFS strategies using SaberSim projections and tools. In addition to Conditionals, there are also features that allow you to exclude players, adjust exposure, and much more. To keep you fully informed on all the possibilities, we will continue to explore more strategies in the coming days and weeks. Also, remember to check back for updated projections throughout the day. As teams release official lineups, SaberSim automatically updates accordingly and reruns simulations in order to stay as current as possible.