Back in early April, I wrote a Five Under 50% post in which I implored fantasy owners to invest in the likes of Nick Franklin and Dan Altavilla. I urged readers to steer clear of Marwin Gonzalez, and promised that Edwin Diaz’s job was as safe as they come.

Naturally, Franklin has a 38 wRC+, Altavilla has a 6.60 ERA, Gonzalez has a .419 wOBA, and Diaz is no longer the Mariners closer. Sorry about that.

Before you quit reading this post because, really, why should you trust me, just know that my predictions weren’t all terrible. I also forecasted success for Scott Schebler (.365 wOBA), Mark Reynolds (.419 wOBA), and Ryan Zimmerman (.469 wOBA), who have been among the best hitters in baseball this year.

Not every gamble will pay off. But when it does, it can transform a fantasy team. It’s been about a month and a half since my last Five Under 50% post, and with renewed confidence, I’m prepared to do it again now.

Below are five (actually seven; I cheated) players owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues whom I think may be worth an add in most leagues. There’s no need to jealously yearn for these players later when you can win them now for pennies on the dollar.

1. Chris Taylor (2B/SS/3B; 39%) Read the rest of this entry »

For a full primer on the process behind these rankings, check out episode 458 of The Sleeper & The Bust.

I decided to go a different route than the traditional 1 to whatever listing and went a step beyond the tiered rankings which allow for more nuance than just a numbered ranking, but still feel inadequate to tackle the many challenges of in-season pitcher management. I do still have tiers, but they are much different tiers and so they aren’t just talent-based groupings. They are more about usability in the fantasy game.

I have five different levels for active arms and then injury and minor league groupings for those we’re waiting on. We always talk “rest of season” when looking at deals and pickups, but I think we have to be more short term than that, especially with pitching. This doesn’t mean I’m wildly shifting rankings and my outlook on pitchers after every start, but rather I’m acknowledging that the landscape is going to shift so much throughout the six month season that trying to focus beyond a month or two is foolhardy.

The tiers are as follows:

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Earlier this week, I recommended Zack Godley in all leagues. A little while later, I got the following tweet

@jeffwzimmerman @rotographs Great Godley piece Jeff. I’m torn. Do i drop Shoemaker Berrios or my 3rd RP Betances to grab him in 14 team weekly points lg? 5 keepers.

— Marcus Aurelius (@WilcoWacko) May 17, 2017

It’s a tough call and one I face in my own home league where everyone is not 100% invested in their team. Just because a player should be owned, he may not be a fit on a team. Here’s how owners should operate when the situation arises.

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The ravaging of the starting pitcher ranks has had many turning an eye to the reliever ranks for reinforcements, even in mixed leagues or leagues without Holds. We’ve seen Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller rise to prominence without being in a closer’s role. This year’s big standout middle reliever is Houston’s Chris Devenski. His 43 strikeouts are tied 33rd-most in the league.

He has more strikeouts than notable Corey Kluber, Marcus Stroman, and even Jered Weaver if you can believe that. Devenski is still available in 29% of Yahoo! leagues, 40% of CBS leagues, and 41% of ESPN leagues so you might still be able to snag him for your staff. He is no doubt rostered in the leagues where he’s most valuable, but there are other relievers out there putting up big numbers and logging multi-inning appearances with regularity. Here are some of my favorites beyond Devenski:

Adam Warren | Yankees

Warren’s been a swingman/long reliever for a few years now, but is doing some of his best work this year. His swinging strike rate is tied with his previous career-high at 11%, yielding a career-best 24% strikeout rate. His slider looks the best we’ve seen and he’s leaning on it more than ever at 36% usage.

Obviously, the .170 BABIP and 0.0 HR/9 will push toward his .278/0.89 career marks, but I wouldn’t rule out this year being his best season since the 2.97 ERA/1.11 WHIP of 2014. He’s gone more than an inning in 10 of his 12 appearances and could put up the first 100+ IP reliever season since 2006 (Scott Proctor, 102.3).

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I had originally planned to do a piece discussing the offseason assessments of Eric Thames and how the projection systems were all rather bullish on him and yet many weren’t quite ready to trust the numbers. I find that interesting because projection systems are notoriously conservative and yet they had him down for 25-30 homers with an .800-.850 OPS. I can’t say I was out there blindly trusting the numbers, either. I’m not one who relies too heavily on projections when doing my drafts and auctions, but I was heartened by how seemingly aggressive the systems were on Thames and wound up securing a few shares.

Instead of doing all that, I’ve decided to go a different route. I’m going to go position-by-position assess the 1-for-1s I’d offer for Thames. That’s right, everyone thinks about selling Thames, but I’d strongly entertain buying and I think these names would entice a lot of leaguemates. I know not everyone does straight up 1-for-1s, but hopefully this will give you an idea of what to look for if you’re in the Thames market – whether as a buyer or seller. I have a group of on the fence players at each position and I’d recommend trying for those when selling Thames.

We just don’t see months like his April too often.

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It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.

With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.

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It’s a well-established fact that AT&T Park is one of the worst ballparks in the major leagues for offense. That’s why, despite putting up a 132 wRC+ over his last 1,500 or so plate appearances, Brandon Belt is not a very valuable fantasy first baseman. It’s also why Buster Posey, a catcher with a career 136 wRC+, has never really been worthy of a top-10 pick on fantasy draft day.

In recent years, however, a new and troubling trend has emerged for the Giants offense. While the league has been on an historic home run tear the last year and a half or so, the Giants have not kept up. In fact, they’ve done the opposite: they’re hitting more ground balls (and fewer fly balls) than just about any other team in baseball.

Ground balls are almost always worse than fly balls, even for a team that plays in a cavernous ballpark like the Giants. Since 2014, Giants hitters have a .245 AVG, .263 SLG, .223 wOBA, and 45 wRC+ on ground balls at home. On their fly balls at home, however, they have a .226 AVG, .598 SLG, .332 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ since 2014.

While the team batting average is actually higher on ground balls, the slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+ are so, so much worse. This is strong evidence to the effect that even a team that plays in an extreme pitcher’s park is not better off hitting ground balls — flies seem to be indisputably better no matter what. Read the rest of this entry »

With about a week of 2017 baseball data in the books, there are already thousands of innings, plate appearances, and batted balls to parse through. We’ve seen a perfect game bid, a cycle, multi-home run performances, and a huge lead blown in the ninth. Unfortunately, something else we’ve seen are injuries to key players. Like the crack of the bat and pop of the glove, injuries are a part of the spot. They’re bad for the player, the team, the fans — and fantasy owners.

When a key player on your fantasy roster gets injured, it often leaves you scrambling to fill the unexpected hole. The following exercise is designed to help you survive such situations. We’re going to look at viable players who are readily available in most fantasy leagues. To qualify for this list, a player must be owned in less than 50% of all Ottoneu fantasy leagues, based on the Ottoneu Average Salaries page. He also must be able to help your team right now (i.e., no prospects).

Getting right to the list, here are of five players worth a shot in an emergency who are owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues, along with their positional eligibility, average salary, and owned percentage: Read the rest of this entry »

We’re entering the final stretch of draft season. For many of you, the so-called advice in this post may be too late. However, it’s my hope that everybody will enjoy discussing the options for good-natured trolling in auction drafts. The nomination process offers several ways to mess with your rivals.

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Over the last week, I’ve participated in three drafts for similar 12-team keeper leagues. They all share the ability to keep as many players as you want at an escalating dollar cost. One of those leagues is FanGraphs Staff Two on ottoneu. This will be my fourth season with my fellow staffers. The others are my home league (11th season) and my college league (sixth seasons). In other words, these are long standing, fully mature leagues.

In ottoneu, player costs increase by $2 every year plus the results of an arbitration period. In short, other teams get $25 to allocate toward other rosters – maximum of $3, minimum $1 per team. For example, my $7 Charlie Blackmon garnered $5 of allocations for a total cost of $12 to keep. The other two leagues use a set of keeper rules I derived long ago. We use previous draft price + $7.

In time, I’ve slowly developed a strategy I call Stars and Scrubs and Keepers. It’s not so much a new technique as it is an explanation. Stars and Scrubs is a particularly potent approach in these leagues with uncapped keeper totals.

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