I had originally planned to do a piece discussing the offseason assessments of Eric Thames and how the projection systems were all rather bullish on him and yet many weren’t quite ready to trust the numbers. I find that interesting because projection systems are notoriously conservative and yet they had him down for 25-30 homers with an .800-.850 OPS. I can’t say I was out there blindly trusting the numbers, either. I’m not one who relies too heavily on projections when doing my drafts and auctions, but I was heartened by how seemingly aggressive the systems were on Thames and wound up securing a few shares.

Instead of doing all that, I’ve decided to go a different route. I’m going to go position-by-position assess the 1-for-1s I’d offer for Thames. That’s right, everyone thinks about selling Thames, but I’d strongly entertain buying and I think these names would entice a lot of leaguemates. I know not everyone does straight up 1-for-1s, but hopefully this will give you an idea of what to look for if you’re in the Thames market – whether as a buyer or seller. I have a group of on the fence players at each position and I’d recommend trying for those when selling Thames.

We just don’t see months like his April too often.

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It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.

With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.

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It’s a well-established fact that AT&T Park is one of the worst ballparks in the major leagues for offense. That’s why, despite putting up a 132 wRC+ over his last 1,500 or so plate appearances, Brandon Belt is not a very valuable fantasy first baseman. It’s also why Buster Posey, a catcher with a career 136 wRC+, has never really been worthy of a top-10 pick on fantasy draft day.

In recent years, however, a new and troubling trend has emerged for the Giants offense. While the league has been on an historic home run tear the last year and a half or so, the Giants have not kept up. In fact, they’ve done the opposite: they’re hitting more ground balls (and fewer fly balls) than just about any other team in baseball.

Ground balls are almost always worse than fly balls, even for a team that plays in a cavernous ballpark like the Giants. Since 2014, Giants hitters have a .245 AVG, .263 SLG, .223 wOBA, and 45 wRC+ on ground balls at home. On their fly balls at home, however, they have a .226 AVG, .598 SLG, .332 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ since 2014.

While the team batting average is actually higher on ground balls, the slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+ are so, so much worse. This is strong evidence to the effect that even a team that plays in an extreme pitcher’s park is not better off hitting ground balls — flies seem to be indisputably better no matter what. Read the rest of this entry »

With about a week of 2017 baseball data in the books, there are already thousands of innings, plate appearances, and batted balls to parse through. We’ve seen a perfect game bid, a cycle, multi-home run performances, and a huge lead blown in the ninth. Unfortunately, something else we’ve seen are injuries to key players. Like the crack of the bat and pop of the glove, injuries are a part of the spot. They’re bad for the player, the team, the fans — and fantasy owners.

When a key player on your fantasy roster gets injured, it often leaves you scrambling to fill the unexpected hole. The following exercise is designed to help you survive such situations. We’re going to look at viable players who are readily available in most fantasy leagues. To qualify for this list, a player must be owned in less than 50% of all Ottoneu fantasy leagues, based on the Ottoneu Average Salaries page. He also must be able to help your team right now (i.e., no prospects).

Getting right to the list, here are of five players worth a shot in an emergency who are owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues, along with their positional eligibility, average salary, and owned percentage: Read the rest of this entry »

We’re entering the final stretch of draft season. For many of you, the so-called advice in this post may be too late. However, it’s my hope that everybody will enjoy discussing the options for good-natured trolling in auction drafts. The nomination process offers several ways to mess with your rivals.

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Over the last week, I’ve participated in three drafts for similar 12-team keeper leagues. They all share the ability to keep as many players as you want at an escalating dollar cost. One of those leagues is FanGraphs Staff Two on ottoneu. This will be my fourth season with my fellow staffers. The others are my home league (11th season) and my college league (sixth seasons). In other words, these are long standing, fully mature leagues.

In ottoneu, player costs increase by $2 every year plus the results of an arbitration period. In short, other teams get $25 to allocate toward other rosters – maximum of $3, minimum $1 per team. For example, my $7 Charlie Blackmon garnered $5 of allocations for a total cost of $12 to keep. The other two leagues use a set of keeper rules I derived long ago. We use previous draft price + $7.

In time, I’ve slowly developed a strategy I call Stars and Scrubs and Keepers. It’s not so much a new technique as it is an explanation. Stars and Scrubs is a particularly potent approach in these leagues with uncapped keeper totals.

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It has become fashionable to complain about two catcher leagues. In the last week alone, four people have made offhand comments to me, assuming I agreed with them. I’m sure more people will find the time to reach out and gripe now that I’ve written this article. And if it’s not clear, I’m very much a fan of the two catcher setting.

The classic argument against two catchers is that the position is too shallow. Even in a 12-team format, some fugly players will be rostered. That… is the point. One catcher leagues are boring – everybody has a good catcher? What’s the fun in that?

The double catcher opens considerable strategic variance. Here are a few of your options.

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This article has happened before, and it will happen again. Every year, fantasy owners pour their resources into players on good teams. It makes perfect sense too. A “good team” scores a lot of runs, prevents runs, or both. That correlates nicely with most of the categories we track in the standard 5×5.

However, good teams also don’t take many risks on unproven talents. They start the season with extra depth, and they acquire more at the trade deadline as needed. Ryan Schimpf and Alex Dickerson wouldn’t have emerged as fringe-roto names if they had been in the Red Sox system. Today, let’s talk about some bad teams.

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Necessity is the mother of invention. –Plato

I wanted to know how owners were valuing Michael Brantley’s playing time. Currently, at NFBC, he is going 233rd overall in NFBC drafts. Over a full season, he is projected to be more productive than the two outfielders going right before him, Carlos Beltran and Randal Grichuk. Owners, via calculations or their gut, are significantly downgrading a full season Brantley. But by how much? I needed to find the league replacement value.

I could go through all the whole league setting and final the values like I did for my Tout Wars league. While I recommend this detailed procedure for any league an owner takes seriously. I was just looking for a quick answer and stumbled upon one while looking over my Fantrax league.

Our friends at FanTrax.com have their players listed with projected stats and ADP. Having both downloadable made a projection sheet quickly come together.

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Champions League B, an Ottoneu league in which all owners must have previously won an Ottoneu league, had its inaugural auction draft last weekend. First-year auction drafts are compelling and informative, especially when the league is made up of skilled and experienced owners. Theoretically, in first-year auctions, all players should be purchased at or near their actual value. There shouldn’t be too much obvious surplus or too many colossal overpays.

Bargain hunting is a delicate endeavor in a first-year auction. Owners can hunt for potential bargains by targeting players coming off down seasons. Andrew McCutchen comes to mind. So does Yasiel Puig. Buying such players can be risky, because their recent poor play may be indicative of future performance. However, it can also be rewarding, because if the player bounces back he may return more value than his price warrants. Having so-called surplus assets is one of several keys to success in Ottoneu.

McCutchen and Puig saw their value decline because of uncharacteristically poor performance on the field. Another type of player to target when searching for surplus is players coming off injuries. Two specific examples are among the most compelling and potentially undervalued fantasy assets in the game. They’re the same age (29), and they play on the same team. They have remarkably similar career numbers and both had season-ending injuries in 2016. Below are the career totals for underrated co-stars A.J. Pollock and David Peralta: Read the rest of this entry »