A Matter of Trust

Sitting here in early September, with papery leaves beginning to find themselves underfoot and with the A’s and Angels getting ready for next season, things really do feel pretty normal. 

There have certainly been some surprises, like the oddly Tucker-shaped hole in the Dodgers’ lineup, but for the most part, it’s been a season that has largely matched our expectations.  

But there was a time, not all that long ago, when many of us were panicking. When our early round picks were faltering and our “sure thing” sleepers were seemingly still sleeping. Let’s call this time by a cute and breezy name, something deceivingly blissful and carefree like “May.”

In this article, I’ll look back at some of the hitters whose starts were so rough that fantasy managers may have overlooked them as they have rebounded this summer and may still undervalue them heading into next year’s drafts.

I want you to be sure to look at these players favorably when doing your draft prep. If you really trust me, maybe even bookmark this page to come back to during draft time, so that you don’t take one look at Rafael Devers and get a sour unripe picked-in-April-but-ripe-in-August orange taste in your mouth (I know this isn’t the citrus timeline, please forgive me). 

We’ll start by narrowing the “frustrating” hitter pool. ATC projections had 128 hitters projected to earn fantasy managers $5 or more this season. Of these, 20% (or 26 hitters) did not have a wRC+ of 100 or better through May this season despite having a “qualifying” number of plate appearances. 

Almost all of those hitters, 22 of the 26, have ended up meeting the $5 season threshold through September 6, but that still includes some relative disappointments like Trea Turner and Jarren Duran, and other hitters who have put up a wRC+ of below 100 from June 1 on. 

I want to focus on those hitters who overcame slow starts by producing even more than ATC projected them to. This removes some players who have really salvaged their seasons, like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Bo Bichette, that drafters may consider lesser players next season, relative to their values heading into this year. 

That leaves us with 10 players who have overachieved their ATC Player Rater projections despite starting the season with a wRC+ below 100. 

This list was fun enough that I wanted to share it with you, and run through this mix of bats, who range from mildly interesting to Rafael Devers. And some of them have been so good in the latter part of the year that managers will likely consider them independent of their April failures. Luis García Jr. and Hunter Goodman fall into that category for me. The story of their seasons, as told by most managers I’m sure, would not focus much on early struggles. 

So instead of looking at all ten of the aforementioned bounceback bats, I’ll dive in and really focus on the five hitters whose starts were so bad that I think fantasy drafters may overlook them next year despite productive 2026 campaigns.

I am most worried that managers will underdraft Rafael Devers next season. 

Heading into this year, Devers was already being drafted at the lowest ADP since before 2020, despite putting up 35 homers last season in what was by far the most controversial season of his career. His struggles in April didn’t help assuage those draft day fears either. But by May, he was already digging himself out of the pit he’d tumbled into. While Andy needed April to thrive, Devers needed to leave April. 

Since the calendar flipped to May, Devers has seen his Z-Contact% increase, his K% decrease, and his counting stats and AVG normalize. 

Looking at his 2026 now, he essentially has hit as well as he had for the last five years. 

Clearly Devers has a track record of success. But the market undervalued him heading into this season, and with his very public slow start, and with the limited profile the Giants have, given their poor record, that trend will likely continue. 

I think he’s going to fall in drafts relative to his production. First base is looking as strong as ever thanks to the emergence of Ben Rice, Sal Stewart, Miguel Vargas, and Luis García Jr. But there is still a small group of first basemen who have put up $15+ seasons consistently over the last few seasons. Devers is firmly alongside Matt Olson and Pete Alonso in that regard, but like this year, managers will likely draft him at least 20 picks after either. He shouldn’t be. 

Jackson Merrill let his fantasy managers down last season, finishing as a $3 player, well outside of the top 100 hitters, with 16 HR but just one stolen base and a .264 AVG, after going for 24 homers, 16 steals, and a .292 AVG as a rookie in 2024. 

ATC projections factored in that rookie season, as well as his turning 23 years old in April of this year, and projected Merrill would put up a $17 season in 2026. 

Through May, Merrill was having a polarizing season, with 5 homers and 10 steals, but just a .209 AVG, good for a 74 wRC+. Since then, he’s continued to contribute power and speed, with 17 homers and 14 steals, putting up a .254 AVG and 108 wRC+. Expected stats think he’s been unlucky, with a .351 xwOBA compared to a .324 wOBA in that stretch. 

Last season, while battling the league’s adjustment to him after a very visible rookie campaign, Merrill had three distinct IL stints: one each for an ankle sprain, a hamstring strain, and a concussion. This year, he’s adjusted to the league, overcome adversity, and, though he seems unlikely to reach the .300 xBA he had in 2024, he is running more and pulling the ball in the air more this season. 

Can he bring his average back up closer to .300? That seems unlikely. This season, he’s accepted some swing-and-miss in exchange for hitting the ball hard. He has struck out and whiffed more than he ever did as a rookie, following last season’s trend. 

Pitchers have pitched him progressively more in the Chase and Waste zones since 2024, and he has responded by swinging more at those pitches and making contact with them more often. These are not pitches you want to swing at, and if you do, you aren’t likely to get a good result. 

But he’ll be just 24 years old next season, with more than 400 games in the majors under his belt. As Jordan Walker and Miguel Vargas reminded us this season, prospect development isn’t always linear. Sometimes, a little seasoning helps. And he’s already demonstrated that when healthy, he’s a near lock for a 20-20 season, with room for more. 

Like Devers, managers were drafting Alex Bregman later than at any time in recent memory coming into this season. But unlike Devers, there was a reasonable theory underlying that discount. This was his first season with the Cubs and consequently, his first with a home park that is not friendly to pulled fly balls by right-handed bats.

Early on this season, that skepticism seemed well founded. Through the end of June, Bregman was walking more than 11% of the time, and striking out less than 16% of the time, but he had no pop, with just 7 homers and a .347 SLG. Since then, he’s maintained those strong plate discipline numbers, but has upped his SLG to .578 with 17 HR and 51 RBI, making him one of the most valuable hitters in the game over that stretch. 

On the year, he’s continued to pull the ball in the air in line with his career rate, around 24%, and he’s continued to perform well against fastballs and offspeed pitches, not giving pitchers a clear weakness to exploit. Sometimes, it’s just a matter of adjustments. Other times, it’s a matter of environment. 

Fantasy managers were worried about Bregman’s performance in Wrigley, a notoriously tough place to hit when wind conditions aren’t favorable. Bregman has hit .286 with a .536 SLG this season with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. He’s hit just .179 with a .218 SLG with the wind blowing in. In August, he had 14 plate appearances with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, and just two hits to show for it. 

When the wind has blown out in August, he has 45 plate appearances, with 4 homers. He recorded a hit in all but one of those August games.

The wind is not predictable at Wrigley. But at least we know that Bregman can succeed at Wrigley. 

Luke Keaschall came into this season as a darling of the fantasy industry, a breakout pick in many circles for the Twins offering potential batting average, power, and speed at a weak second base position. 

Second base has proven deeper than some may have expected. And, more relevant to this conversation, while Keaschall has been able to provide in all three areas, the production has been uneven. 

After hitting four homers with 14 steals and a .302 average in his 49 game cup of coffee last season, Keaschall has been slightly underwhelming on the whole during his sophomore season. Projected to reach 11 HR and 24 SB by ATC before the season, he has 9 HR and 16 steals thus far. 

He started the year hitting third for Minnesota, but was quickly demoted after a rough start. Through April, Keaschall had a 16% strikeout rate and just a 6% walk rate, with just a 15% line drive rate, which is low for him. 

From May 1 on, he lived largely at the bottom of the Twins’ order, limiting his stolen base opportunities, but taking the pressure off. He thrived at the dish, upping his walk and line drive rates and hitting .294 with 8 HR and a 137 wRC+. That success helped him move up to the leadoff spot on August 17. He hasn’t hit in any other spot since, hitting over .300 with 3 steals in that span. 

At 24 years old though, he’s another young player with plenty of room to grow into his 6’0, 190 pound frame. 

Plus, he’s smooth.

Looking ahead to next season, he’s a leadoff hitter in a relatively weak division who is a proven 10-homer, 20-steal threat and above average batting average contributor with low strikeout totals. With the hype largely worn off with his weak first half, expect Keaschall to fall in drafts and, barring an excellent Spring Training, be available well after pick 100 in drafts heading into 2027. 

The one warning? The steals may be a bit more of a question than expected next season. He went 16/23 on stolen base attempts after May 1, putting him right at a 70% success rate. While that certainly could improve next season, the Twins may also try to rein in their young star. 

At the end of last season, Daylen Lile burst onto the scene as a league winner. After a pedestrian start to his career that saw the young outfielder hit one homer in each of June, July, and August, something clicked in September. Lile hit .394 with six homers to end his season, adding three doubles and seven triples to his ledger to increase his OPS to 1.212 from September 1 through the end of the season.

To start his sophomore season, the 23-year-old kept his head above water, but didn’t perform like a .300 hitter with some pop. Instead, he seemed to have a bit less upside. He wrapped up April and May hitting .249 with seven homers and four steals. Since then though, 13 homers and 10 steals, with a .261 AVG and a penchant for triples, as he added six of them. Most of that damage came in August, when he hit .285, backed by a .287 xBA, and hit seven homers with four steals.

Like Keaschall, he’s been getting caught stealing, with just a 61% success rate (14/23) on the year. Still, the intent is there, and that’s half the battle. 

His biggest flaw, or perhaps strength, has been his streakiness this season. He’s capable of putting together strong stretches, but he often can’t stay hot for more than a few weeks at a time, or at least that’d been the case until August. Players like this are useful in head-to-head leagues especially, given the uneven nature of his production being most impactful on a week-to-week basis. 

Fantasy managers may think of him more for his overall line come draft season next year. I hope they do. A .256 AVG with 20 homers and 14 steals feels like Bryan Reynolds. It doesn’t scream upside. 

But clearly, Lile has something more in the tank. He’ll be 24 years old next season, with no threat to his playing time. And the Nationals’ offense has been elite this season, helping Lile pile on runs and RBI, with 75 and 82, respectively. If he moves up to the four-hole in the lineup more consistently, as opposed to the six-hole he primarily occupied this season, there should be even more RBI opportunities for Lile.