There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to fans. It is a dimension as vast as the width of two balls and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and dark, between strike and ball, and lies between the pit of a batter’s fear and the summit of his bat’s knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Shadow Zone.

The entire zone can be divided into four attack zones, starting at the heart, and moving out to the shadow zone (the width of a ball on the inside and outside of the strike zone), which is followed by the chase and waste zones.

We’ll be focusing on the shadow zone, home of pitcher’s pitches and balls framed to strikes, looking first at the players who are offering at these borderline pitches the least in 2021. However, swinging less at shadow pitches doesn’t guarantee success and some hitters are better served by being more aggressive. Like most things, it’s a case-by-case situation. Read the rest of this entry »

The Returnee Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Erickson

Strategy Section

• Returning players to active lineups
  • When to return struggling hitters
    • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • When to return struggling pitchers
    • Luis Castillo
  • When to return recovered injured players
  • When to insert prospects
    • Jarred Kelenic
    • Bobby Dalbec
    • Jo Adell
• How to determine when a “hot” waiver wire player is worth a pickup

Cincinnati Reds

• Closer situation
• Nick Castellanos – Where does he rank ROS among outfielders?
• Is Tyler Mahle for real?

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If I were to look into the rear-view mirror while riding in the back seat of an Uber and ask the driver, “Could you tell me the expected time of arrival, minus the current time please?”, I would probably get some weird looks. But, if I were to ask you, fantasy baseball enthusiast, for your team’s current stolen base total, plus your rest of season (RoS) projected stolen base count, you would probably be delighted. It would give you a good sense of where your team is and where your team is heading.

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The Lineups Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Gardner

Strategy Section

• Lineups
  • 5 games for a star vs. 7 games for a scrub
  • When should you start paying attention to categories when setting your lineup?
    • When should you be playing the Jon Berti types?
  • Monday morning decisions for injured players
    • What are the key words/terms that managers use that you should pay attention to when making your decisions?

Fantasy Baseball in 2021

• How does 2021’s lower batting average environment affect how you play fanasty?
• What does the 2021 pitching environment mean for player values?
• Should we change the rules of rotisserie baseball?
  • BA vs. OBP
  • Saves vs. Saves + Holds
  • Wins vs. IP vs. Wins + Quality Starts

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The Is It Too Early Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

• Is it too early?
  • Is it too early for individual scoring categories to matter?
  • Is it too early to play the matchups based on category standings?
  • Is it too early to punt categories or to alter your pre-season strategy?
  • Is it too early to evaluate how you did at the draft table?
  • Is it too early to cut a player that you spent meaningful draft capital on?

Hot / Cold Starts

• Cold Players
  • Patrick Corbin
  • Luis Castillo
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Francisco Lindor
• Hot Players
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Byron Buxton
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • Matthew Boyd
  • Danny Duffy

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Looking at five big performances from unexpected sources to determine their staying power in the coming weeks and months.

Christian Arroyo | BOS, 2B

Arroyo has been a surprise standout for the Red Sox, hitting .302/.353/.413 in 69 PA and occasionally hitting atop the lineup. He was a top 100 prospect multiple times back when he was the Giants but has become a bit of journeyman since then moving from the San Francisco to Tampa Bay to Cleveland and finally to Boston. At the risk of being simplistic, the fast start seems almost entirely attributable to his .404 BABIP. There has been virtually zero power (.111 ISO) thanks to a massive groundball lean (62%).

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There have been some really exciting starts from young pitchers so far this season. On Sunday, Michael Kopech pitched five innings, faced 18 batters, and struck out 10 of them. When I saw that he was starting in place of Lucas Giolito on Sunday morning, I totally rolled the dice and got lucky. Adding a young pitcher who I’ve been rooting for over the past few years and it paying off was great. But, I’ll admit, it made me feel a little empty inside.

As I stared at the tv and excitedly encouraged whiff after whiff I slowly began to realize that a win wasn’t going to be possible. I knew Kopech would be on a pitch count and I knew he wasn’t going to suddenly become a rotation mainstay, but I went for it anyway, dropping a set-up reliever in order to gain some strikeouts. I felt oh-so-sad when Tony La Russa effectively looked into the camera and told me not to get used to it. Monday morning had me reflecting, was it worth it? Which is better to roster, low-pitch count starters like Kopech or middle/set-up relievers?

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As more batters push up past 60 PA, we have reached one of the first major stabilization points of the season with strikeouts. It doesn’t mean that we’re observing their true talent level after 60 PA, but rather that we may be experiencing a shift in that talent, so it is worth looking at some of the major outliers to see if they have made observable changes to fueling the improvement.

Omar Narváez, MIL | -20 pts to 11% in 65 PA

His 2020 collapse really felt like an outlier. He moved to the Brewers and while they seemed to do a great job at teaching him how to better catch, it came at the expense of his bat. Now it probably isn’t as simple as “he focused so much on defense that he let his hitting lag” and it probably has much more to do with it being a small 126 PA sample (60 wRC+, 31% K).

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Let’s get a disclaimer out of the way; I’m not writing to recommend a punt and I don’t think you should just completely give up on a category. Ok? All I’m saying is if I were to punt, here’s how I’d do it. Punting in fantasy baseball is when you abandon a category. Saves are hard to come by and you might just be able to completely forego accumulating them. Many fantasy managers will draft with the punt in mind straight from the get-go. Some will wait and see how their team is shaping up and will punt a category that is lacking. Surely there has been work determining the value of the punt, Ron Shandler’s forecaster comes to mind. But let’s look at it from a 2021 perspective and whether or not it’s theoretically possible to punt a category and also win your league.

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The FAAB Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Vlad Sedler

Strategy Section

• Waiver Wire
  • Weekly Process
  • Distribution of waiver wire pickups
  • When to drop a player
  • How to look for players to stream
  • Two-start pitchers
• FAAB Bidding
  • How format and league size affects bidding
    • Difference between $1 and $0 minimum bid
    • Difference between $100 and $1000 season budget
  • General approach to a FAAB budget
  • Keeping your ROI high
  • “Keep honest” bids
  • What to be mindful of while bidding during the season

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