Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
This early main slate is a really difficult one to not play chalk pitching. There are five guys with double-digit per-nine strikeout stuff, but three have really samples and two of them are in bad strikeout parks. I’m nitpicking here because the two SP1s are just so obvious that excluding Joe Ryan in a bad strikeout matchup, Tyler Wells and his awful command, and Tanner Houck and his awful matchup feels pretty easy.
EDIT — The cheap Wells is rising on my list because no one is going to play him. I predicted he’d be in the 20-25% ownership range because of the strikeouts and the great matchup, but he could go single digits. He’s become a poor man’s Cease on this slate.
THE SP1s: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease
Kevin Gausman is the clear ace of the slate. His SIERA since 2021 is the lowest on the slate and his strikeout matchup is sneaky strong. The Red Sox active roster only has a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2020 and their strikeout rate has gone up to 23.5%. Add in his 10.70 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, and 0.89 HR/9 with his ridiculously cheap salary on DK and we’re losing money by not going overweight on him. Sometimes chalk is underowned, too, and Gausman is one of those spots today.
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