With just over two months to go, it’s more crucial than ever to play the categorical standings. Sure, Anthony Santander just keeps homering, but he hasn’t hit for batting average and isn’t expected to, and doesn’t steal bases. So if you’re atop the home run standings, he ain’t doing you much good at the moment, outside of keeping you at the top. Instead, you might see four stolen base points in your sights, so perhaps shifting toward speed is now your optimal strategy. These are 12 lesser-owned names that could help gain you those stolen base category points.

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I’m sure everyone who has sauntered over to Victor Scott II’s page immediately looked at his 2023 stolen bases totals. First, there are the 44 steals in AA. And they need to be added to the 50 steals in High-A. Yes, those 94 steals are now in play with Scott being named the Cardinals starting center fielder. So should roto managers get ready to pay for the young speedster?

There was some fantasy love for the 23-year-old speedster throughout draft season. Before March 1st, he was being drafted at an average spot of 586th in NFBC drafts. When Spring Training started and it was obvious Tommy Edman was not going to be ready for the season’s start, his ADP (average draft position) jumped to 440. And then the news came out yesterday that he was making the team because of Dylan Carlson’s injury and in the 47 Tuesday drafts, his ADP jumped to 254. It should possibly be higher. Read the rest of this entry »

Bigger bases in 2023 allowed for more stolen bases overall this year. More players reached the 20+ stolen base mark than ever before in the Statcast era. In fact, the 51 players who reached 20+ SBs in 2023, more than doubled last year’s mark of 24. The increase in stolen base output is explainable, MLB changed a rule. The flux of home runs in the past few years, however, is not as explainable, though many have tried to explain it with an analysis of the make-up of the actual baseball. But, both of those statistics are up individually and in combination.

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We all knew this season would be different. New rules have changed the accumulation of statistics for some players slightly and we knew that would happen during the draft season. We didn’t know exactly what we should be doing about it. If everyone is stealing more bases, then who do you draft? Ronald Acuña Jr., that’s who.

Since the 2011 season, only nine players have finished the year with at least 50 stolen bases and only four players have finished with at least 60. Dee Strange-Gordon stole 64 bases in 2014 and 60 bases in 2017, Jonathan Villar stole 62 in 2016,  and Michael Bourn stole 61 in 2011. This season, in 2023, both Ronald Acuña Jr. (78) and Esteury Ruiz (67) are on pace (Games Played %) to join the list. If Acuña keeps pace, he’ll be only the fourth player this century to steal at least 70 bases, joining José Reyes (78 in 2007), Scott Podsednik (70 in 2004), and Jacoby Ellsbury (70 in 2009).

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I started out wanting to see if a player stole more bases from one lineup slot compared to another one. Discussions around Trea Turner’s spot with the Phillies led me down this path. Last season, Turner had 603 PA from the 2nd and 3rd spot in the batting order and just 105 PA while leading off. He was on a 29 SB/600 PA pace from the leadoff spot and a pace of just 22 SB/600 PA from the other two. I wanted to see if the bump was normal and if not, what should I expect? What I found was a mess and don’t plan on regurgitating here. I put the “F- Around, Find Out” philosophy to work with over a day wasted to end up with three graphs and four actionable conclusions.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the list of hitters I had highlighted whose Pod Projections suggested stolen base upside compared with Steamer projections. Now, it’s time to review the list of stolen base downside guys, or those whose Pod Projections called for far fewer steals per 650 PA than Steamer.

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Today, I continue on reviewing my Pod vs Steamer series, pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Let’s now shift to stolen bases. This season saw the lowest PA/SB (the lower the ratio, the higher the frequency of stolen bases) since 2016, as the rate has jumped up and down beginning in 2018. If the trend continues, steals will be down next year! Of course, that’s not how it works. Anyhow, the increase in steals means my upside guys have a slight advantage, and my downside list might look a little worse than it would had steals been stable year to year. So let’s review the eight hitters who I projected for the biggest positive difference in PA/SB, resulting in a higher stolen base projection over 650 PAs.

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Now is the point in the season where you are probably looking to accumulate stats from just about anyone. Adding and dropping and adding and dropping as the season comes to an end is a strategy that has worked for me in the past, but I play in a few daily moves leagues, where you don’t have to bring waiver claims to auction or use “FAB” money. Some fantasy managers like to let their rosters ride, but if you’re falling behind, or just need a few more stolen bases to move up a roto-point, now is the time to be more active. Here are three players who have low ESPN roster rates and should steal at least five bases the rest of the way this season.

Jon Berti, 24.2% rostered ESPN, ROS SB (Steamer): 7

Berti has benefited from the injury to Jazz Chisholm Jr., from a playing time standpoint in 2022. He has mostly been an everyday 2B/3B and has stolen three bases so far in August. Berti won’t be helping your AVG/OBP/SLG ratios, but he will be attempting to steal bases as the Marlins have the most stolen bases in the MLB this season. Out of all three players listed in this article, Berti has the most ROS projected stolen bases but is probably going to be the least productive offensively overall.

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On this past weekend’s On The Wire Podcast, there was a discussion surrounding Esteury Ruiz stolen base numbers and the effect of the minor league pitch clock. The gist of the situation can be taken from this Tucker Davidson tweet thread.

Some Take Aways From the newly installed pitch clock. I’ve made 3 starts with it and each time it’s been a different experience. Overall not a fan. Let’s talk about the good and the bad. (Thread) @jjcoop36 @JeffPassan

— Tucker Davidson (@tucktuck6) April 29, 2022

The rate of stolen bases is up in the minors as soon as they implemented the change. With the numbers up, I wanted to calculate a simple rule to see how much I should expect a hitter’s stolen base rate to change once promoted, especially rabbits like Ruiz.

For the calculations, needed to set some ground rules. I limited my sample to this season’s hitters who stole four or more bases in AAA. Additionally, they had to go on and have 30 MLB plate appearances. In the end, 40 players met the requirements. I know the sample isn’t the biggest, but I’m just looking at how a hitter’s stolen base rates should change.

For the first test, I compared the stolen base attempt rate ((SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP)) in AAA and the majors. In AAA, the median stolen base rate among these guys was 19.5% and it dropped to 10.8% in the majors. When comparing the ratio change (MLB rate/AAA rate) it worked out to 53.5%. So a hitter’s stolen base rate should drop about 50%.

The next test was to look at the success rate. In AAA, this group had an 80.2% success rate and it dropped to 72.1% in the majors. A success of 80% would help a team while 72% hurts their chances of winning.

One final test, what was stolen base per plate appearance change. This value is a quick rule of thumb that takes into account attempts, success, and changes in on-base rate. This value works that the MLB rate is 43% of the AAA numbers.

So going back to Ruiz, here are his expected stolen base rates knowing what he did in AAA.

Here are the stolen base per 600 PA values for our projection systems.

His projections are close but just a little lower than the value I found. Maybe I should just follow the projections.

I’m sure you’ve already heard that it’s hard to be a speed junkie because stolen bases are so passe. But some teams are still running and while I’d rather have a fast player than a slow one, when it comes to the stolen base game, a team’s intent can often be just as important as an individual’s actual speed. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the lesser-owned players on the teams that have attempted the most thefts so far in 2022 and see if we can stack the probabilities in our favor. Read the rest of this entry »