Red Light, Green Light

I’m sure you’ve already heard that it’s hard to be a speed junkie because stolen bases are so passe. But some teams are still running and while I’d rather have a fast player than a slow one, when it comes to the stolen base game, a team’s intent can often be just as important as an individual’s actual speed. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the lesser-owned players on the teams that have attempted the most thefts so far in 2022 and see if we can stack the probabilities in our favor.

Here is how the league has rated on the basepaths the past three seasons, with the teams ordered by their Attempt% in 2022 but also including their overall stolen base success rates.

Attempt% = Attempts/Stolen Base Opportunities (defined by Baseball-Reference as “plate appearances through which a runner was on first or second with the next base open”)

 

Tampa Bay Rays, 1st in Attempt Rate

Brett Phillips (Yahoo: 3%, ESPN: 1%, CBS: 4%) – Prior to sitting the last two games, Phillips had started nine games in a row as a multitude of Rays have been banged up. Brandon Lowe is still on the IL but Wander Franco, Yandy Díaz, and Manuel Margot have all returned, so expect a return to sporadic usage – and zero usage vs LHP, against whom Phillips is slashing .000/.067/.000 in limited action.

But Phillips has been running when he’s been in, stealing three bases in his last five games, running a .063 Att/PA in 2022 after a .058 Att/PA in 2021. In the weeks when the attempt-happy Rays won’t face many LHP, Phillips is a better steal-streamer than most. And for in their next 10 games, the Rays are currently slated to face just two LHP – the interdimensional wizard that is Martín Pérez, and Taylor Hearns.

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (Yahoo: 12%, ESPN: 5%, CBS: 13%) – He’ll sit increasingly more vs LHP with the return of Manuel Margot but Kiermaier isn’t just interesting because of some small speed potential. He also has 6 HR, 19 runs, and 14 RBI, to go along with 3 SB, running a .248 AVG that feels more like .300 in today’s dead-ball world. No, seriously, Kevin Kiermaier has hit 6 HR in 120 PA and has batted leadoff in his past four starts.

Texas Rangers, 2nd in Attempt Rate

Eli White (Yahoo: 5%, ESPN: 5%, CBS: 8%) – The speedy Texas outfielder (100th percentile Sprint speed) seemed a lot better of a pickup prior to hitting the skids recently, having stolen eight bases on the season, and (more importantly) seeing increased playing time. White had started 11 of the last 12, including seven games in a row (4 vs LHP, 3 vs RHP) and batting leadoff vs LHP.

But he’s now gone 1-for-19 in his last five starts, has sat for three of Texas’s last five games and hasn’t stolen a base since May 16. White still has a 111 wRC+ vs LHP but a 38 wRC+ and .263 OBP vs RHP isn’t going to earn him more playing time. He’s worth keeping an eye on in daily leagues where you can try and stream for a steal when Texas is facing a lefty but can’t currently be used in weekly leagues.

Brad Miller (Yahoo: 10%, ESPN: 7%, CBS: 12%) – We all know the deal with Miller by now, right? He’s not going to start vs LHP but is a solid power streamer for starting against RHP. But on the run-free Rangers, Miller is also swiping bags at a higher rate than he has in the recent past, with an attempt per-PA rate that ties his high from 2015 when he went 13-for-17 on stolen bases for the Mariners. You’re still streaming him for power first (and the batting average is still a sink) but a few bonus bags could be the tiebreaker when deciding where to spend a little bit of your FAAB.

Andy Ibáñez (Yahoo: 1%, ESPN: 1%, CBS: 2% – Ibáñez’s playing time has mostly dried right back up after Mitch Garver returned from the IL, starting four of the seven since (sitting twice vs RHP and once vs LHP). He’s only stolen one base in May and can be kept on the wire barring an injury to a Texas starter. And probably even if that occurs.

Milwaukee Brewers, 3rd in Attempt Rate

Jace Peterson (Yahoo: 7%, ESPN: 3%, CBS: 7%) – Peterson is absolutely not going to start vs LHP (8 PA vs LHP in 2022) but has made every start vs RHP since May 6 and that pattern should continue, at least until Willy Adames returns and overcrowds the Milwaukee infield. But in addition to his 6 SB leading to a .056 ATT/PA rate that’s his highest since 2018, Peterson has chipped in 3 HR and 18 runs, albeit as a batting average sink (.202 AVG).

Unfortunately, the bags are sporadic, as Peterson hasn’t swiped one since May 18, with that being his only one since stealing two on May 10. I’d like to hope-cast a lot more (as he’s currently one of the many band-aids on a few of my draft-and-hold teams that have been hit with injury hurricanes) but it’s hard to see without some major squinting, given just a .296 OBP vs the RHP that he actually gets to start against.

Lorenzo Cain (Yahoo: 2%, ESPN: 1%, CBS: 20%) – The 36-year-old Cain has been a non-factor in 2022, slashing .183/.246/.221 over 114 PA. But he’s now started the past three games since Hunter Renfroe went on the IL and the speed potential at least makes him interesting while he stays in the lineup. He only has 2 SB (on four attempts) but sometimes desperation is a stinky cologne.

Los Angeles Angels, 4th in Attempt Rate

Andrew Velazquez (Yahoo: 1%, ESPN: 1%, CBS: 6%) – Unlike many of the players above, Velazquez actually has a full-time job, starting at shortstop for the last 18 games and for 22 of the last 23. Unfortunately, he’s a light-hitting switch-hitter who particularly struggles to get on base vs RHP (.235 OBP vs RHP, .310 vs LHP) and bats at the bottom of the order.

But his spot low in the order doesn’t seem as awful considering the lineup rolls over to Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the Taylor Ward MVP-experience. And while Velasquez hasn’t stolen a base since May 14, that might be also due to the schedule, having to face Oakland seven times in Los Angeles’s last 14 games. The A’s might be terrible but Sean Murphy is very tough to run on, with a 43% CS% that is 4th-highest in baseball (min 10 attempts). By the by, Velasquez’s only stolen base over this period was in the first game of a doubleheader against Oakland when Murphy was at DH.

Oakland Athletics, 5th in Attempt Rate

Seth Brown (Yahoo: 3%, ESPN: 3%, CBS: 9%) – Brown starts consistently vs RHP while still seeing limited action vs LHP but the low-budget source of power is apparently a base-stealer now? Ok, not really but Brown has stolen two bases in the past week and has four in the month of May after not even attempting one in April. I already thought the pop was for real so any bonus bags you get will just be delicious gravy.

I don’t think Brown is suddenly going to go nuts on the basepaths but finding production on teams going nowhere is one of my favorite market inefficiencies. Because what does Oakland really have to lose? Might as well just give everyone the green light before the whole team runs itself to Las Vegas.