Stock Watch: May 25th
Geovany Soto, Cubs
Geo was a prime bounce-back candidate entering 2010, given that his strong walk and power numbers in ’09 were obscured by his batting average on balls in play taking a nose-dive. CHONE projected a .358 wOBA for the Cubbies backstop prior to the season, and ZiPS projected a .352 mark.
So far, Soto has outpaced those forecasts with a .386 wOBA. His BABIP, .246 last year, has shot up to .316 (his career average is .306), and he’s still driving the ball fairly often (.151 Isolated Power). The biggest reason Soto has scorched those pre-season forecasts, though, is his Bondsian walk rate — Geo has taken ball four in 22.1 percent of his plate appearances. That’s tops in the majors among batters with at least 100 PA.
Soto was a patient hitter in 2007 (20.1 outside-swing percentage) and 2008 (17.8 O-Swing). But this year, he has chased just 13.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches (second in the majors). Geo likely won’t keep this pace up, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection –.262/.357/.456, with a .360 wOBA –still makes him one of the best fantasy options at his position. Yet, Soto is still available in one-quarter of Yahoo Leagues. That makes me wanna take a Lou Pinella-like tantrum.
Mat Latos, Padres
As a 22-year-old starter who dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries on the farm, logging a career-high 127.2 innings between the minors and the majors in 2009, Latos isn’t likely to be burdened with a full-season big league workload in 2010. Still, he’s showing the excellent stuff — a 93-94 MPH fastball, an upper-80’s slider and a mid-80’s change — that allowed him to whiff 10.5 batters per nine frames as a prospect.
In 55.1 IP, Latos has 6.83 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 and a 3.81 xFIP. While the walk rate suggests he’s pounding the strike zone, that hasn’t been the case. Latos has placed 41.7% of his pitches in the zone, well below the 47.7% MLB average. Rather, the 6-6, 225 pound righty has induced swings on pitches off the plate 30.6% (27.6% MLB average). Latos has also gotten swinging strikes 9.3%, compared to the 8.3% MLB average. He’ll be handled cautiously, but Latos is a premium young arm in a pitcher’s paradise.
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
The former Pirate has already popped 14 home runs in 2010. For reference, he went deep 16 times in 2006, 15 in 2007 and 2008 and 13 in 2009. Bautista has a .325 ISO, basically doubling up on his pre-season projections (.163 CHONE, .162 ZiPS), and his wOBA is .393 (.320 pre-season CHONE and ZiPS).
He’s lofting the ball more than ever, with a 52.3 FB% (43.7% career average), and those fly balls are finding the stands a whopping 20.9% of the time (11.5% career average). Odds are, “Joey Bats” (as he was known in Pittsburgh) hasn’t become a hulking, elite power hitter. But you can’t just pretend that his power surge hasn’t happened, either.
The best course of action is to take those pre-season projections and incorporate the extra data points we’ve gotten on Bautista over the past two months. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .339 wOBA for Bautista, with a .201 ISO.
Ted Lilly, Cubs
Lilly has been one of the best free agent signings among starting pitchers since he inked a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs prior to 2007. The lefty compiled 10 WAR from 2007-2009, providing about $44 million in value. However, Lilly hasn’t looked as sharp in 2010.
The 34-year-old, who began the season on the DL recovering from left shoulder and knee surgery, has 5.02 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.83 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Lilly has never been known for velocity, but his heater is down to an average of 85.3 MPH in 2010 after sitting 87-88 MPH in recent seasons. His slider, typically around 82 MPH, is averaging 79.4 MPH.
Keep in mind the sample size, but Lilly’s whiff rates are down across the board (data from texasleaguers.com):
Lilly has garnered swinging strikes 5.9% this year, compared to a 9.5% career average. His contact rate is 87.5% (79.7% career average, 80-81% MLB average). Perhaps this is just a blip, but Lilly needs to start missing more bats to be an above-average big league starter.
Matt LaPorta, Indians
Granted, LaPorta spent more time on the surgeon’s table than in the batting cage this past off-season — he had surgery on his left hip and left toe. But the 25-year-old, Cleveland’s supposed big catch in the CC Sabathia deal, has been extremely disappointing this season.
The career .291/.384/.557 minor league hitter has a paltry .240 wOBA in 110 trips to the plate. LaPorta showed decent patience as a prospect with a 10.3% walk rate, but he has hacked at 32.7% of pitches off the plate this year. The most surprising aspect of his season, however, is a total lack of pop — his ISO is in Juan Pierre territory, at .059.
While fantasy owners shouldn’t write him off entirely, LaPorta has an uninspiring .329 rest-of-season wOBA projection from ZiPS. League-average hitting from a defensively-challenged corner outfielder/1B/DH just isn’t very valuable.
Randy Wolf, Brewers
Signed by Milwaukee to a three-year, $29.75M deal during the winter, Wolf benefitted from a low BABIP and a high rate of stranding base runners during a contract year in 2009. The result was a 3.23 ERA that outpaced his xFIP (4.17) by nearly a run.
Both CHONE (4.22 pre-season FIP projection) and ZiPS (4.19) predicted that Wolf would be more serviceable starter than top-shelf arm in 2010. So far, the new Brewer has fallen short of that level of performance. Wolf has 6.09 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and a 4.96 xFIP. The 33-year-old got swings on pitches out of the zone around 24% of the time in recent years, but that’s down to 20% this season. After putting about 53% of his pitches in the zone in 2008 and 2009, Wolf’s Zone% is 48.8. His swinging strike rate, around the MLB average recently, sits at 6.1%.
For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.85 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP. Wolf will likely pitch better from here on out, but that low-three’s ERA hurler from ’09 isn’t coming back.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
What does it matter about Soto’s walk rate….for the stock up section? His last 30 days he hitting a toasty .217 with 6RBI, last 15 an 3-33 .091 and 0RBI, yeah he belongs here in Stock UP.
I have Soto – wish I didn’t.
Just wanted to point out that of latos’ 9 starts; 3 against the giants, 1 against astros, 1 against mariners. In those starts 36 IP, 3 ER (.75 ERA); his other 4 starts 19.1 IP, 16 ER (7.45 ERA). His schedule won’t be THAT easy the rest of the way so personally I’m trying to sell high.
Of those 16 ER’s you mentioned, 6 of them came in one start and another seven in his first two starts, the first of which was in Colorado. I will give you the fact that he hasn’t really faced a lot of juggernaut teams but to just throw out some stats without looking at them deeper is silly. He’ll be tested further but the fact remains that since his first two starts he’s had only one bad outing. He did shut down the Brewers as well, who despite their bad record, can score runs in bunches and have mainly struggled due to their pitching, not their offense.
If you play in a keeper league, do not sell Latos. This kid has dominated at every level and plays in the best pitchers park in the bigs. Hold on to him for the next decade. In a yearly league, I could see selling high especially do to the innings cap but don’t settle for less than a solid SP2. Got to agree with Josh, Soto should have been a stock up a few weeks ago. Although his current struggles might make it easy to buy low on him if you think he will turn things around after his current slump.
I think it’s important to take a long-term outlook on these posts- I don’t see much value in listing someone in the up or down section based on a small sample of playing time that’s particularly good or bad. There’s not much predicive value to be had in Soto’s recent “struggles.” But, I think there is some value to noting an even more selective plate approach in 2010, given that changes in plate discipline become reliable in pretty short order.
Even if Soto has been below average the last 30 or so at bats, haven’t catchers as a whole been kind of crappy this year? I’m in a 12 team league and Soto has still been more valuable than half the owned catchers, albeit we also count OPS and I imagine in a typical 5 by 5 league that wouldn’t hold up. But it seems like in an OPS league he’s right in the middle of catchers that should be/are owned.
It’s been alluded to before, but it must be noted the preseason projections on Bautista were seriously flawed. If you look at his September last year, when he was healthy and given a full-time job, he has continued to be the #1 HR hitter in baseball from then. He’s no fluke. His OBP is also nice- I wonder why that isn’t mentioned here?
Soto’s stats seem gaudy, but he really hasn’t produced much, and he appears to get 2 games off a week; maybe not, but if you own him it just seems that way, like something isn’t right. don’t know if that is a pitcher preference thing or “I am being saved for the playoffs” or what. I recently dropped him for Y. Molina, who I know is playing everyday. Just give me numbers, baby.
David, the herds migrate over here from ESPN and CBS now that you guys are getting more mention. They don’t have a long view. Most play in 10 team or less leagues where the FA wire is filled with guys who are owned in any competitive league.
You’re dead on right about Geo. He’s been much improved this year, and I can’t wait to see what he does when the weather gets warmer. Thanks as always for the insights.
Yeah, I migrated here over a year ago, and I love the posts. This one, however, just struck me to be a little strange, sure Soto’s got a great eye and possibly a turnaround coming soon, but this is the Stock Up post, players that should be in here should be guys getting hot at the dish not guys taking walks and getting 1 hit ever 15 AB’s. I was trying to deal him, hilariously, in my 12 team league to guys with people like Ivan Rodriguez and Buck starting at Catcher, and I was getting offered like Drew Stubbs for him so I think, sure he has the ability to turn this around put up a great season, but I don’t think he needs to be in the stock up section, maybe Dave should start a “Good Things to Come” post, LOL.
Would Napoli stay in the lineup now that Mathis is coming back. There needs to be a stock up/down on him, once again.