Earlier today, Erik rolled out our Shortstop rankings and tiers.  For kicks we should reveal the individual lists we used for our combined rankings as the variability is remarkable, and it demonstrates just how fluid this position is. To be sure, shortstop is my biggest conundrum headed into 2011 as it seems there isn’t a tremendous amount that differentiates the majority of these guys after you get out of the second tier.  So here’s to trying to mine some risers from the list that might provide a little something added to a middling or low draft pick at what is shaping up to be an awfully uninspiring inventory at the 6.

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On Thursday, Jeff rolled out our composite second base rankings and we’ve since looked at Risers, Top Targets, and the bargain bin. All three of the gents featured on today’s “Fallers” list are clustered in our third tier, yet all of them have easily performed like tier 1 talent at least once in their career. Let’s peek at at why they’re not getting more respect from us. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we rolled out our third basemen rankings for the upcoming season, and although the list gets awfully dicey after the first couple of tiers, there are some names whose stock is up headed into the draft.

Since Howard nicely summarized Pablo Sandoval’s horrific 2010 on and off the field, I’ll leave him off the list, although I’d say he is certainly on several bounce-back radars.

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On Thursday, we rolled out our First Base rankings and while it’s commonly referred to as a deep position, the bottom isn’t necessarily never ending. There are some gentlemen on the list that you might want to dodge on draft day, unless of course the price is just too good. With that in mind, here are your preseason First Base Fallers:

Billy Butler

Butler headlines this list primarily due to unmet expectations. Butler was being drafted in the 75-79 range in 2010 as he was a rising star but after disappointing in his power and run producing output, his ADP going into 2011 appears to be in the 85-92 range (unless you’re Yahoo! and his ADP is inexplicably 66). Many managers have lost a little patience with him despite his contributions in the batting average category. He’s certainly not a dud, as the kid only turns 25 in April and he’s actually got a solid resume to date plus the history of a pretty fantastic hitter in the minor leagues.

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Jose Reyes, Mets

After missing the majority of the 2009 season with a hamstring injury and then being reduced to spectator status with a thyroid condition in early April of 2010, Reyes was understandably rusty at the plate. The switch-hitting speedster posted a .285 wOBA and a .088 Isolated Power in April, and slogged through a May in which he put up a .311 wOBA and a .112 ISO. But in June, Reyes has heated up — a .403 wOBA and a .220 ISO. His season line has climbed to .279/.323/.420, with a .335 wOBA. The 27-year-old has also swiped 19 bases in 21 attempts.

Reyes’ turnaround has been fueled by fewer swings on outside pitches, more contact and a sinking infield/fly ball rate:

ZiPS projects a .288/.348/.446 rest-of-season line, with a .359 wOBA. Those who gambled on Reyes over the winter (and held onto him after his rough start) are being handsomely rewarded.

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

Last season, Cahill was jumped to the big leagues as a 21-year-old with minimal experience above A-Ball. As such, he kicked and flailed to keep his head above water at the highest level. Cahill finished his rookie year with 4.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, a 47.8 GB% and a 4.92 xFIP. While no stud against same-handed hitters (4.53 xFIP), Oakland’s second-round pick in the 2006 draft was lashed by lefties for a 5.31 xFIP.

Given Cahill’s impressive minor league resume (including a career 9.9 K/9 and a 58.6 GB%) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-best prospect prior to ’09), he was expected to make considerable progress with more major league experience. And he’s on his way — in 2010, Cahill has whiffed 6.24 batters per nine innings, walked 2.88 per nine and has induced grounders 53.3%. His 4.02 xFIP (3.88 versus lefties) isn’t close to his pristine 2.88 ERA (he’s not gonna keep that .235 BABIP all season long), but Cahill is showing across-the-board improvement.

His swinging strike rate is 7.9%, up from 7.4% last season (8.3% MLB average). Cahill’s contact rate has decreased to 81.1% from 82.1% in ’09 (81% MLB average), and his outside swing percentage is comfortably above the big league average after coming in well below that level as a rookie. He got batters to chase off the plate just 21.6% last season (25.1% MLB average), but opponents have gone fishin’ 29.2% in 2010 (28.4% MLB average).

According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cahill has marginally increased the whiff rate on his fastball (4.9% this season, compared to 4.6% in ’09 and the 6% MLB average). But his secondary stuff is fooling hitters more — Cahill’s getting whiffs 14% of the time that he spins a breaking ball, up from 7.3% last year and above the MLB average of about 13%. His changeup is getting a whiff 15.9% in 2010 after posting a 13.6% rate in ’09 (12.6% MLB average). Why is this guy still on the waiver wire in 60% of Yahoo leagues?

Todd Helton, Rockies

We chronicled Helton’s power outage last month, and things haven’t improved for the 36-year-old since then. He’s got a .250/.344/.318 triple-slash on the season, with a .068 ISO. That’s Jason Kendall/David Eckstein territory there. He has been bullied by fastballs — Helton hit heaters for a +0.99 runs/100 value from 2007-2009, but he’s down to -0.62 per 100 this season. Once you adjust for the Coors assist that Helton receives, his hitting has been 20 percent worse than the league average (80 wRC+). It’s no surprise, then, that the singles-hitting first baseman has been sub-replacement-level (-0.2 WAR).

Trying to figure out whether a player is “done” is often a fool’s errand — see David Ortiz — but Helton’s hitting with little authority, struggling to fend of fastballs and putting the ball in play more to left and center field, with ghastly results. At the very least, it’s not looking good.

Brad Bergesen, Orioles

The 24-year-old sinker/slider pitcher shouldn’t have been expected to replicate his 2009 season, as there was nearly a full run separating his ERA (3.43) and xFIP (4.42). Bergesen garnered a reputation in the minors for pounding the strike zone (1.6 BB/9 on the farm) and keeping the ball down (52.6 GB%), and he continued to limit free passes and fly ball balls in the majors (2.34 BB/9, 50.1 GB% with the O’s in ’09). However, Bergesen missed few bats in the minors (5.8 K/9) and whiffed just 4.74 per nine during his rookie year. His BABIP (.289), strand rate (75.2%) and home run per fly ball rate (8.3%) all figured to climb in 2010.

However, instead of regressing to a mid-four ERA-type pitcher, Bergesen has been the AL’s answer to John Lannan this season. In 58 innings, Bergesen has just 2.17 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, a 50.2 GB% and a 5.90 xFIP. That K rate is by far the lowest in the majors among pitchers tossing 50+ frames. His contact rates were high last season, but they’re untenable this year given just average control.

Bergesen is getting swinging strikes 3.4%, compared to 6.4% in ’09. His overall contact rate has spiked to 92.2% from last season’s 85.5%. On pitches within the strike zone, batters are connecting an astounding 97.7% (91.2% last year, 88% MLB average). That’s the highest rate of in-zone contact in the majors. Bergesen’s fastball didn’t get many whiffs last year (3.5%), but that figure is down to 2.4% this season. His slider (12.2% in ’09, 8.3% in ’10) and changeup (6.9% in ’09, 3.8% in ’10) are also getting fewer whiffs. With good control, ground ball tendencies and a mediocre K rate, Bergesen can be of use to the O’s. With OK control, ground ball proclivities and an abysmal K rate, he’s a batting practice pitcher.

Max Scherzer, Tigers

Max was a mess prior to a mid-May demotion to Triple-A Toledo, but he has been dealing since his vociferous, 14 K return to the majors on May 30th. Scherzer’s fastball velocity has climbed:

Scherzer’s averaging 94.1 MPH since his recall, compared to 91.8 MPH prior. What’s interesting is that his increase in whiffs comes largely from his secondary stuff — the whiff rate on his fastball has improved (6.3% since his recall, 5.2% before his demotion; 6% MLB average), but his slider whiff rate is up to 20.3% from 14% (13.6% MLB average), and his changeup whiff rate has climbed to 20.4% from 10.5% (12.6% MLB average). It’s entirely possible that the increased zip on Scherzer’s fastball makes his slider and change more effective — pitches don’t exist in a vacuum, independent of one another.

Overall, Scherzer now has 8.26 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 4.17 xFIP in 73 innings pitched. However, his early season struggles and ugly 5.67 ERA (the result of a .332 BABIP, 64.1 LOB% and a 14 HR/FB%) have scared off many owners — Scherzer is rostered in just 34% of Yahoo leagues. ZiPS projects a 4.07 FIP with 8.59 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9 for the rest of 2010. This is a great buy-low opportunity.

Chris Young, Diamondbacks

Young had a disastrous season at the plate in 2009, batting .212/.311/.400 with a .314 wOBA and an 85 wRC+. Those looking for a silver lining pointed to Young’s career-high 11.8% walk rate, solid power (.187 ISO) and low .268 BABIP. However, he whiffed 30.7% and basically earned that low BABIP due to an absurdly high infield/fly ball rate. Young popped the ball up 22.4% last season, nearly tripling the major league average. Those weakly hit infield flies are gimme outs, and help explain why Young’s expected BABIP was just .276.

This season, Young has cut his IF/FB rate to a much more palatable 9.3%, and his punchout rate is down to 23.6%. He’s hitting .278/.341/.483 in 288 PA, good for a .366 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. As an added bonus, Young has already swiped 12 bases this season and is on pace for a career-best 28 SB.

While Young has certainly been better offensively this season, we probably shouldn’t expect him to suddenly keep this pace from here on out. His BABIP so far is .319, compared to a .307 xBABIP. And, while the big drop in his pop ups is a great sign, infield/fly ball rate doesn’t become reliable until a batter takes about 500 trips to the plate. ZiPS projects .247/.321/.456 for the rest of the season, with a .343 wOBA and a .285 BABIP. Young could best that line if he can keep on limiting the infield flies.

Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers

Injuries have been a problem for the former Hiroshima Toyo Carp ace since he came stateside in 2008 (shoulder tendinitis in ’08, an oblique strain, a sizzling line drive to the head and a herniated disc in his neck in ’09), but he’s been highly effective when on the mound — his career xFIP is 3.79.

This year, Kuroda’s got 7.13 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and a 3.68 xFIP in 88.1 frames, keeping the ball down with a 53.5 GB% to boot. The 35-year-old righty is going to his 92-93 MPH fastball less often this season — about 52%, compared to 66% in 2009. In place of the heater, he’s relaying more on a mid-80’s slider/cutter (about 37%) while also mixing in high-80’s splitters (11%). All of his pitches are getting more whiffs than the big league average — 7.7% with the fastball, 14.4% for the slider and 18.1% for the splitter (16.1% MLB average). Kuroda’s still on the waiver wire in 23% of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a rock-solid starter when healthy.

Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays?

Demoted and then DFA’d by the Jays, Encarnacion’s future in Toronto is up in the air — another team could claim him and what’s remaining of his $4.75 million salary (he’s arbitration-eligible next season, too), though GM Alex Anthopoulos doubts that’ll happen.

The 27-year-old Encarnacion, picked up as part of the Scott Rolen swap last summer, is having a bizarre 2010 season. In between a DL stint for a right shoulder injury, he has hit .200/.298/.467 in 141 PA, with a .267 ISO and a wacky-low .167 BABIP.

During his big league tenure, Encarnacion has a .257/.339/.449 triple-slash, a .344 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. He has drawn walks at a slightly above-average rate (9.3 BB%), and he’s got power (.193 ISO). He has generally had a below-average BABIP because he pops the ball up often (16 IF/FB%). Encarnacion is not a lost cause at the plate, but the problem lies on the other side of his game.

The former Red has proven to be a ghastly defender at third base, with a career -12.4 UZR at the position. He could revive his career if he proves to be a capable corner outfielder, but he’s likely going to be a drag defensively at whatever position he mans, and his bat isn’t good enough to pick up the slack. DH’s with modestly useful lumber don’t stick around the majors.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds

On the surface, the guitar-strumming righty with the high leg kick is having another season of innings-munching adequacy — a 4.53 ERA in 93.1 frames. However, Arroyo’s peripheral stats aren’t music to anyone’s ears. He’s got 4.63 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 5.20 xFIP. He’s not putting many pitches within the zone (46.1%, compared to a 47.2% MLB average) and his contact rate has climbed to 85.6% (it was 84.7% last season and around the 81% MLB average from 2006-2008). Remember how Scherzer is owned in just 34% of Yahoo leagues? Well, Arroyo’s 6-3 record has earned him a roster spot in 36% of leagues.

Unless Arroyo picks up the pace K-wise and displays his characteristically quality control, he’s going to start getting hit harder — he’s not likely to keep a .266 BABIP or a 7.1 HR/FB% all season long.

Ian Desmond, Nationals

Washington’s third-round selection in the 2004 draft is falling short of pre-season expectations. Both CHONE (.265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA) and ZiPS (.270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA) gave forecasts of league-average hitting, but Desmond currently sits at .256/.290/.388, with a .296 wOBA.

A major reason for the 24-year-old’s sub-.300 wOBA is his huge strike zone. Desmond’s swinging at 34.5% of pitches thrown outside of the zone (28.3% MLB average), which has often put him in the pitcher’s clutches. The Nats’ shortstop has a 63.5 first pitch strike percentage, far exceeding the 58.4% big league average. Not surprisingly, Desmond’s walk rate is just 4.1%. He’ll need to show a better eye to avoid being a liability at the plate.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Yeah, I know — kinda obvious. But Strasburg’s first two big league starts are well worth discussing. The hoopla surrounding the San Diego State Aztec reached mythical proportions typically reserved for the likes of Big Foot, Chupacabra and Loch Ness, but Strasburg has been highly impressive.

The 21-year-old righty ripped apart minor league batters before getting the call — in 55.1 IP between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, he had 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a FIP slightly above two. When opponents weren’t whiffing, they were hitting weak grounders (Strasburg’s GB% was 64.9). While his second MLB start against Cleveland proved that he is, in fact a sentient being capable of error, Strasburg has a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 12.1 frames so far.

He’s sitting 98 with the four-seamer, 96 with the two-seamer and also features a low-80’s curve with two-plane break and a 90-91 MPH change that drops seven inches more than his four-seamer (4-4.5 inch big league average). His swinging strike rate is 15.3. There’s not much else to say, other than Strasburg really is worthy of the attention that he receives.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

Rasmus, 23, has followed up a quality rookie season with a great leap forward at the plate. In 219 PA, he’s hitting .293/.399/.582, with a .414 wOBA that ranks in the top 10 among MLB hitters. Clearly, Rasmus won’t keep up this pace. He’s benefitting from some fortunate bounces, with a .375 BABIP that’s well ahead of his .319 expected BABIP. But even so, he’s working the count and crushing the ball.

Swinging at 23.3 percent of pitches out of the zone (28.1% MLB average), Rasmus is drawing ball four in 14.6% of his PA. His Isolated Power, .156 last season, is .288 in 2010. All of that taking and raking has come with more swings and misses (33.2 K%, compared to 20% in ’09), but it’s a trade well worth making. Rasmus likely won’t keep hitting homers nearly 21 percent of the time that he lofts a fly ball into the air — ZiPS projects a .266/.342/.447 line for the rest of 2010, and CHONE a .259/.339/.442 triple-slash. I’d take the over on those forecasts, however.

Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Definitively a starter with Toronto after years of role-related drama in Seattle, Morrow has been considerably better than his ERA (5.14) implies. He’s got 10.29 K/9, 4.89 BB/9 and a 3.99 xFIP in 70 innings pitched. Morrow still struggles to find the strike zone at times — his first pitch strike percentage is 53.8 (58.3% MLB average) — but he’s missing lumber at an elite rate.

With an 11 percent swinging strike rate, Morrow ranks in the top 10 among qualified starters (the MLB average is 8.2%). His contact rate of 74.4% is well above the 81.1% big league average and places behind just Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and teammate Ricky Romero. The whiff rates on Morrow’s 94 MPH four-seam fastball and upper-80’s slider are stratospheric — 10.6% for the four-seamer (6% MLB average) and 26.7% for the slider (13.6% MLB average). This guy’s probably still available on the waiver wire, too, as Morrow’s owned in just 15% of Yahoo leagues.

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello’s 21, and his career could take any number of paths over the coming years. But he hasn’t made progress during his sophomore season. The New Jersey prep product is punching out fewer batters this year than in 2009 (4.02 K/9, compared to 4.69 K/9), with a few more walks (2.91 BB/9, 2.74 BB/9 in ’09) and a lower ground ball rate (48.8 GB%, 54.2 GB% in ’09). No, he hasn’t been six-plus ERA bad — his BABIP (.350) and strand rate (61.6%) will regress toward the mean — but Porcello’s xFIP has climbed to 5.14 in 2010 after coming in at 4.32 in 2009.

At this point, Porcello basically has one pitch going for him: a 90 MPH sinker that he throws for strikes and uses to get grounders. Everything else is a work in progress. His four-seamer, thrown a couple ticks quicker, has a decent whiff rate, but Porcello struggles to locate it. Hitters lay off his lackluster breaking and off-speed stuff:

Having thrown all of 125 innings in the minors, Porcello is learning on the job. And he’s still got a ways to go.

Chase Headley, Padres

A full-time third baseman after spending the better part of the past two seasons in left field, Headley is flashing the leather — he has a +8.1 UZR/150 at 3B. His bat lags behind, however.

It seems like the switch-hitter might be trying to make more contact, to the detriment of his power and overall offensive performance. During his rookie season in ’07, Headley struck out 31.4%, with a 72.7 Contact%. Last year, he whiffed 24.5% and made contact 77.8%, and this season he’s punching out 20% with an 81 Contact%. His ISO over that time frame has dipped from .151 to .131 to .093. Headley’s wOBA has declined three years running as well, going from .334 in 2008 to .328 last year to .305 in 2010.

Considering that he’s not drawing many walks this year (5.7 BB%) while just blooping some singles, it’s not surprising that Headley’s offense has been below-average even after accounting for cavernous Petco Park — his wRC+ is 95.

Chris Tillman, Orioles

Tillman, 22, has fantastic long-term potential. He was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and he has 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a FIP around three in 154.1 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years. Past scouting reports lauded his low-90’s heat (peaking around 94 MPH) and above-average curveball, delivered from a lanky 6-5 frame.

In the majors, however, Tillman’s stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. Tossing 15 innings for the O’s this year, Tillman has a 7/8 K/BB ratio, with 15 runs surrendered. His average fastball velocity is slightly under 91 MPH. In 80 combined IP over the past two years, Tillman has 5.18 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 5.31 xFIP. Both his four-seam fastball and curve have below-average whiff rates in the bigs so far (4.6% and 7.5%, respectively), which helps explain the lack of K’s. As an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.5 GB% in the majors, 39.7 GB% in the minors), Tillman needs to miss more bats and display sharper control. There’s nothing alarming here long-term, but Baltimore could send him back to Triple-A to work out the kinks.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano, 26, has reclaimed his place as one of the game’s elite starters. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, the lefty posted back-to-back ordinary seasons in 2008 (4.31 xFIP) and 2009 (4.55 xFIP), lacking the power, control and strong ground ball tendencies which allowed him to wreak havoc in ’06. He also missed time last season with elbow and forearm injuries, again calling into question his durability.

In 2010, however, Liriano has 9.41 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, a 49.5% rate of grounders and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks second to Cliff Lee among qualified AL starters. His mid-80’s slider has always been wicked — it has a +2.49 runs/100 value during his career, and is at +2.71 this season. He’s going to that breaking pitch about 36 percent of the time. But it’s Liriano’s two-seam fastball that’s making a big difference.

Liriano’s heat has been hammered for a -0.8 runs/100 mark during his career, but the pitch (up to 93.5 MPH, from 91 MPH in ’08 and ’09) has a +0.5 runs/100 value this year. He’s throwing the pitch for strikes (64.6%, 61.9% MLB average). Couple the souped-up, well-located fastball with Liriano’s untouchable slider — he’s throwing the pitch for strikes 74.7% (62.7% MLB average) and getting whiffs 24% (13% MLB average) — and you have the recipe for pitcher’s counts and little contact. Liriano’s first pitch strike percentage is 61.6% (58% MLB average) and his contact rate is 75% (80-81% MLB average).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Speaking of improved pitches, Pelfrey’s splitter has helped him take a step forward this season. The 6-7 sinkerballer threw his tailing low-90’s fastball nearly 80% of the time in years past, getting ground balls put few punch outs. He experimented with sliders and curves, but neither pitch has been especially effective (-0.76 runs/100 for the slider, -0.2 runs/100 for the curve).

Pelfrey has shifted his pitching strategy this season, going to his fastball about two-thirds of the time and throwing a mid-80’s splitter nearly 19 percent. He’s still keeping the ball down (a career-high 52.5 GB%), but Pelfrey’s K rate has climbed to 6.53, his best showing in the majors. While he hasn’t morphed into the ace that his ERA (2.39) suggests, Pelfrey has a quality 3.87 xFIP. His strand rate (near 83 percent) and sub-six HR/FB rate will likely rise. Still, the changes in Pelfrey’s game make him an asset to the Mets and a guy worthy of fantasy consideration.

Jay Bruce, Reds

“The Boss” entered the season as a prime rebound candidate, given his history of pulverizing minor league pitching and his strong walk and power numbers that were obscured by a low BABIP in 2009. So far, so good for Cincy’s 23-year-old right fielder: Bruce has a .368 wOBA.

He hasn’t quite displayed the light-tower power of past seasons (.197 ISO), but Bruce is still putting a charge into the ball often enough while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His rate of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone has gone from 30.4% in 2008 to 26.1% last season, to 24.4% in 2010. Consequently, his walk rate has climbed — 7.3% in ’08, 9.8% in ’09 and 12.4% this year. Bruce has top-shelf secondary skills, and the best is yet to come.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Eno was all over the news that Sizemore underwent microfracture surgery, a devastating blow to the Indians and fantasy owners who were looking for a rebound from one of the game’s best players — Sizemore averaged 6.4 WAR per season from 2005-2008, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that was 33 percent above average (133 wRC+).

Sizemore declined to a 112 wRC+ during an ’09 season marred by abdominal and elbow injuries, both of which required surgical fixes. In 2010, he had a paltry 53 wRC+, as his normally excellent patience and pop were nowhere to be seen. Sizemore’s outside swing rate soared to 33 percent (19.1% career average) and his rate of swings on pitches within the zone dipped to 59.4% (65.3% career average). His ISO was just .078 (.204 career).

Hopefully the 27-year-old can return and resume being a franchise-type player, but the truth is, we just don’t know how the procedure will affect his play. Those in keeper leagues have to be feeling Sizemore’s pain.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins

Mike Stanton’s in the big leagues, and early indications are that Cody Ross will shift to center to make room for the 20-year-old masher. That means less PT for Maybin.

While fellow 2005 first-round fly catchers Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus have established themselves in the majors, Maybin has scuffled. In 489 career PA, the 23-year-old has a .308 wOBA, with rough plate discipline (7.6 BB%, 31 K%).

Maybin’s at an uncomfortable, in-between state right now. He’ll either see reduced playing time in the majors, hardly optimal for his development, or perhaps he’ll head back to Triple-A, where he already proved himself last season (.387 wOBA). Ross could be headed out of town in the next couple of months, opening up an everyday job for Maybin. His long-term potential is still excellent. But for now, Maybin’s no longer a prospect and not yet an accomplished big leaguer.

J.J. Hardy Twins

Minnesota acquired Hardy during the off-season for CF Carlos Gomez, hoping that J.J. would provide superb D and produce offensively at a level closer to his 2007 (.338 wOBA) and 2008 (.355 wOBA) work than his .292 mark in 2009. While Hardy, 27, has lived up to expectations with the leather, he has been a near-automatic out at the dish.

When healthy enough to take the field (he served a DL stint with a left wrist sprain, which apparently is still bothering him), Hardy has a .268 wOBA. His .237 BABIP will improve to an extent (though his line drive rate is generally pretty low, and his pop up rate high). Hardy’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .312 wOBA. Coupled with rangy defense, that’s good enough to make him a solid starter for the Twins. ZiPS doesn’t know about Hardy’s wrist, though, and fantasy players getting none of the benefits of Hardy’s glove will want to look elsewhere for shortstop help.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

During the first three full years of his major league career, Zimmerman combined fantastic D with an above-average bat — his wRC+ from 2006-2008 was 110. Since then, the fourth pick in the 2005 draft has kept the slick leather and improved his lumber. He posted a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and holds a 160 wRC+ in 2010.

Zimmerman’s power production has soared, with his Isolated Power figures going from the high 100’s to .233 in ’09 and .295 this season. ISO tends to become reliable around 550 plate appearances, and Zimmerman has been hitting for elite pop for nearly 900 PAs now. His rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .289/.361/.522 triple-slash, with a .233 ISO. Remember Scott Rolen’s peak? Zimmerman, 25, is now that type of player.

Phil Hughes, Yankees

Though he has seemingly been a topic of conversation for years, Hughes turns just 24 this month. And he has been great as a starter — in 56.2 frames, he has 9.05 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.63 xFIP. The 6-5, 240 pound right-hander is doing a great job of getting ahead in the count, with a 67 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average), and he’s getting batters to chase out of the zone 34.8% (27.8% MLB average). That’s the sixth-highest chase rate among MLB starters tossing at least 40 innings.

How is Hughes getting the job done? With 92-93 MPH fastballs and high-80’s cutters that hitters can’t seem to lay off. The 2004 first-rounder has gone to his fastball about 52 percent, getting a strike 70.2 percent of the time (64.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 9.3% (6% MLB average). Batters have offered at the four-seamer 51.9 percent (45.2% MLB average).

The cutter, used about 27 percent of the time, has been thrown for a strike 75.1% (66.7% MLB average). It’s getting whiffs 10.4% (8.4% MLB average) and has been swung at 63.1% (50% MLB average). Hughes’ curve isn’t faring as well, with below-average strike, whiff and swing rates, but the fastball and cutter have made him death on righties (2.88 xFIP) and acceptable against lefties (4.40 xFIP).

If Hughes is still available in your league, well, what are you waiting for? ZiPS projects 8.51 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.68 FIP from here on out. The Yankees are going to be cautious with his workload, but he’ll continue to deal when he’s on the mound.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates

The 29-year-old switch-hitter has a Tolstoy-length injury history — a torn hamstring in 2006, a concussion as well as a wrist and ankle sprain in 2007, a fractured thumb in 2008 and a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 — but when he’s not hurting, he’s mashing.

After posting a 126 wRC+ during a (moderately) healthy 2008, Doumit’s production dipped considerably in 2009 (85 wRC+). Some of that was poor luck on balls put in play, but he hacked at a career-high 33.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone.

In 2010, Doumit has chased 24.2% of off-the-plate pitches, and he’s drawing walks at a career-best 10.3% clip. His first pitch strike percentage is just 44.6 — that’s lowest among MLB batters with at least 100 trips to the plate. Doumit has a 127 wRC+ in 175 PA, with a .281/.371/.451 line. ZiPS projects a .277/.339/.458 showing for the rest of 2010, which is plenty useful for a backstop. But if Doumit continues to work the count well, his value gets a boost.

Of course, all of this is assuming he doesn’t hit the DL tomorrow.

Akinori Iwamura, Pirates

Picked up from Tampa Bay over the off-season for RHP Jesse Chavez (who was subsequently sent to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano), Iwamura has effectively lost the starting gig at the keystone spot for Pittsburgh to Neil Walker.

CHONE (108 wRC+) and ZiPS (107 wRC+) both forecast Iwamura for a solid offensive season, getting on base at a characteristically high rate while displaying little pop. Instead, Aki has a 49 wRC+ in 181 PA. He’s drawing a walk 12.1% of the time, but an incredibly low BABIP has made him one of the worst players in the majors to date.

During his major league career, Iwamura has a .330 BABIP. CHONE projected a .343 pre-season BABIP, and ZiPS .345. Aki’s 2010 BABIP? .198. He has had fewer batted balls classified as line drives (13.3%, compared to a 19.4% career average), and his ground ball rate has spiked to 58.6% (47.3% career average). That helps explain why his ISO is .076, below his pre-season projections of .109 from CHONE and .114 from ZiPS, as well as his career .108 mark.

Those aren’t promising developments, but Iwamura probably hasn’t totally lost it — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .262/.337/.369, with a .319 wOBA. Even so, the Pirates’ decision to give Walker (profiled here) a shot is defensible. The 24-year-old has a .262/.307/.449 rest-of-season ZiPS. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle second base, and he’s no top prospect these days. But Walker could be part of the next relevant Pirates team, while Iwamura won’t be.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Since returning from a neck/back strain, Matsuzaka has been a pain in the neck to Sox fans and fantasy owners alike. Dice-K has 6.55 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 5.49 xFIP in 34.1 innings pitched. He has put 46.4% of his pitches within the zone (47.5% MLB average), and he’s getting first pitch strikes just 52.4%. Matsuzaka also isn’t missing bats — his swinging strike rate is 6.4%, compared to the 8-8.5% MLB average and his career 9.7% average.

During his first two seasons state-side, Dice-K was basically a league-average starter (4.31 xFIP in 2007, 4.70 in 2008). He was control-challenged, but at least compensated with good K rates. Last year’s shoulder ailment and 4.83 xFIP, coupled with more injury concerns and lousy pitching this season, make him hard to recommend. The upside here would appear to be a 4.25-4.50 ERA. Is that worth all the aggravation?

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Beckham went from Athens to the South Side in short order, putting up a .270/.347/.460 triple-slash and a 112 wRC+ in 2009. CHONE (115 wRC+) and ZiPS (111 wRC+) predicted more of the same for the 23-year-old, and Beckham’s value received an extra boost fantasy-wise with his shifting from third to second base.

Flash forward two months into the 2010 season, and Beckham is owned in just 42% of Yahoo leagues. He has a ghastly .196/.286/.239 line in 187 PA, with a 45 wRC+.

It would be rash to sell low on Beckham in keeper leagues, as he remains a valuable long-term talent, but he looks lost at the plate at the moment. After swinging at 24.8% of out-of-zone pitches during his rookie year, Gordon has gone fishing 30.6% this season. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points (40.4% to 50.4%), and his pop up rate has increased — 14%, compared to 11.9% last year and the 7-8% big league average. Beckham’s .043 ISO puts him in the illustrious company of Jason Kendall and teammate Juan Pierre.

He’s not going to keep a .238 BABIP, but Beckham is surely testing the patience of owners who have stuck with him through his struggles.

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Geo was a prime bounce-back candidate entering 2010, given that his strong walk and power numbers in ’09 were obscured by his batting average on balls in play taking a nose-dive. CHONE projected a .358 wOBA for the Cubbies backstop prior to the season, and ZiPS projected a .352 mark.

So far, Soto has outpaced those forecasts with a .386 wOBA. His BABIP, .246 last year, has shot up to .316 (his career average is .306), and he’s still driving the ball fairly often (.151 Isolated Power). The biggest reason Soto has scorched those pre-season forecasts, though, is his Bondsian walk rate — Geo has taken ball four in 22.1 percent of his plate appearances. That’s tops in the majors among batters with at least 100 PA.

Soto was a patient hitter in 2007 (20.1 outside-swing percentage) and 2008 (17.8 O-Swing). But this year, he has chased just 13.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches (second in the majors). Geo likely won’t keep this pace up, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection –.262/.357/.456, with a .360 wOBA –still makes him one of the best fantasy options at his position. Yet, Soto is still available in one-quarter of Yahoo Leagues. That makes me wanna take a Lou Pinella-like tantrum.

Mat Latos, Padres

As a 22-year-old starter who dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries on the farm, logging a career-high 127.2 innings between the minors and the majors in 2009, Latos isn’t likely to be burdened with a full-season big league workload in 2010. Still, he’s showing the excellent stuff — a 93-94 MPH fastball, an upper-80’s slider and a mid-80’s change — that allowed him to whiff 10.5 batters per nine frames as a prospect.

In 55.1 IP, Latos has 6.83 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 and a 3.81 xFIP. While the walk rate suggests he’s pounding the strike zone, that hasn’t been the case. Latos has placed 41.7% of his pitches in the zone, well below the 47.7% MLB average. Rather, the 6-6, 225 pound righty has induced swings on pitches off the plate 30.6% (27.6% MLB average). Latos has also gotten swinging strikes 9.3%, compared to the 8.3% MLB average. He’ll be handled cautiously, but Latos is a premium young arm in a pitcher’s paradise.

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

The former Pirate has already popped 14 home runs in 2010. For reference, he went deep 16 times in 2006, 15 in 2007 and 2008 and 13 in 2009. Bautista has a .325 ISO, basically doubling up on his pre-season projections (.163 CHONE, .162 ZiPS), and his wOBA is .393 (.320 pre-season CHONE and ZiPS).

He’s lofting the ball more than ever, with a 52.3 FB% (43.7% career average), and those fly balls are finding the stands a whopping 20.9% of the time (11.5% career average). Odds are, “Joey Bats” (as he was known in Pittsburgh) hasn’t become a hulking, elite power hitter. But you can’t just pretend that his power surge hasn’t happened, either.

The best course of action is to take those pre-season projections and incorporate the extra data points we’ve gotten on Bautista over the past two months. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .339 wOBA for Bautista, with a .201 ISO.

Ted Lilly, Cubs

Lilly has been one of the best free agent signings among starting pitchers since he inked a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs prior to 2007. The lefty compiled 10 WAR from 2007-2009, providing about $44 million in value. However, Lilly hasn’t looked as sharp in 2010.

The 34-year-old, who began the season on the DL recovering from left shoulder and knee surgery, has 5.02 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.83 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Lilly has never been known for velocity, but his heater is down to an average of 85.3 MPH in 2010 after sitting 87-88 MPH in recent seasons. His slider, typically around 82 MPH, is averaging 79.4 MPH.

Keep in mind the sample size, but Lilly’s whiff rates are down across the board (data from texasleaguers.com):

Lilly has garnered swinging strikes 5.9% this year, compared to a 9.5% career average. His contact rate is 87.5% (79.7% career average, 80-81% MLB average). Perhaps this is just a blip, but Lilly needs to start missing more bats to be an above-average big league starter.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

Granted, LaPorta spent more time on the surgeon’s table than in the batting cage this past off-season — he had surgery on his left hip and left toe. But the 25-year-old, Cleveland’s supposed big catch in the CC Sabathia deal, has been extremely disappointing this season.

The career .291/.384/.557 minor league hitter has a paltry .240 wOBA in 110 trips to the plate. LaPorta showed decent patience as a prospect with a 10.3% walk rate, but he has hacked at 32.7% of pitches off the plate this year. The most surprising aspect of his season, however, is a total lack of pop — his ISO is in Juan Pierre territory, at .059.

While fantasy owners shouldn’t write him off entirely, LaPorta has an uninspiring .329 rest-of-season wOBA projection from ZiPS. League-average hitting from a defensively-challenged corner outfielder/1B/DH just isn’t very valuable.

Randy Wolf, Brewers

Signed by Milwaukee to a three-year, $29.75M deal during the winter, Wolf benefitted from a low BABIP and a high rate of stranding base runners during a contract year in 2009. The result was a 3.23 ERA that outpaced his xFIP (4.17) by nearly a run.

Both CHONE (4.22 pre-season FIP projection) and ZiPS (4.19) predicted that Wolf would be more serviceable starter than top-shelf arm in 2010. So far, the new Brewer has fallen short of that level of performance. Wolf has 6.09 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and a 4.96 xFIP. The 33-year-old got swings on pitches out of the zone around 24% of the time in recent years, but that’s down to 20% this season. After putting about 53% of his pitches in the zone in 2008 and 2009, Wolf’s Zone% is 48.8. His swinging strike rate, around the MLB average recently, sits at 6.1%.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.85 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP. Wolf will likely pitch better from here on out, but that low-three’s ERA hurler from ’09 isn’t coming back.