On Monday, I took a look at the five pitchers whose ERAs are most below their respective SIERA marks. Today, I check in on the opposite side of the ledger, those pitchers whose ERAs are most above their SIERAs. These are the pitchers that SIERA would classify as the unluckiest, and might be undervalued in next year’s drafts.
As we head into the final weeks of the season, it’s nearly time to get a jump on next year’s research. One of the first exercises worth performing is comparing a pitcher’s actual ERA with his SIERA. While in some cases there are legitimate explanations for over or underperformance of SIERA marks, for the most part, you should treat SIERA as your baseline for your next season ERA projection, rather than actual ERA. Here are the five pitchers who have outperformed their SIERA marks the most this season.
In September, teams are able to bring up any player to the majors that is on the 40 man roster. When a player gets hurt, a team has no incentive to put the player on the DL to open up a spot. Because teams are ignoring the DL, it is hard knowing exactly which players are not going to play and for how long.
The most important aspect that fantasy owners face is that the non-playing, hurt players can’t be moved to a DL slot without the DL designation. Teams in keeper leagues will be forced to keep these players on their active roster therefore denying an extra usable bench player on a fantasy roster.
On Saturday, I checked in on some surprising HR/FB ratio surgers and attempted to determine what we can expect from these hitters next season. Today I’ll look at the opposite end, those hitters whose HR/FB ratio have experienced a large decline. Will they be bargains in next year’s drafts or money traps?
Every season there are a handful of hitters who experience power breakouts. As much as a fantasy owner would love to take credit for predicting such a surge, it seems more like a crapshoot to me. Sure, you could use 20/20 hindsight to find clues for some of these hitters, but those same clues likely failed to lead to home run increases for many others. Let’s see if we could figure out what to expect in 2013 from three surprises from this year.
I am not one to ever make much of a small sample size, especially just two weeks worth. However, pitchers usually show a change in skills more quickly than hitters (or at least it can be identified more easily). Plus, as we make our way through the final month of the season, we have to deal with the reality that pitchers do tire and/or, younger pitchers are getting figured out. Here are three American League starters who have posted surprisingly poor SIERA marks over the last two weeks.
September roster expansion and resulting call-ups are almost upon us. But although the party has not begun just yet, we have still seen many new faces among American League starting pitchers in recent weeks. Here are a couple worth discussing.
This week’s American League Stock Watch has a little bit different of a flow. With September right around the corner — and thus September roster expansion and call ups — there should be a strong infusion of minor league talent about to jump onto the scene. To help you get a jump on your leaguemates regarding some of these soon-to-be-available outfielders, here is a list of AL club outfielders that are already on their respective 40-man rosters.
Michael Taylor – He happens to have a top 10 wOBA among Pacific Coast League outfielders and already had a brief stint with the A’s. During his time in Sacramento this year Taylor has amassed 506 plate appearances and although he only has 12 home runs, his triple slash is a robust .289/.406/.449. His power might have waned a bit but his speed is still intact. His SB/CS ratio is a very strong 17/3 mark. His strikeout rate won’t ever impress, but given his combination of plate discipline, still solid power and above average speed, Taylor makes for a potentially intriguing pick up. The only downside to Taylor would be playing time. The A’s are currently juggling Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespdes, and Jonny Gomes on a regular basis. That doesn’t leave too many PA’s for Taylor, especially with the A’s in the playoff hunt and most likely unwilling to give PA’s to a still unproven player.
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Spinning off of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ promotion of Tyler Skaggs to the majors earlier in the week as they try to make a push for a playoff spot, it seems fitting to do a rundown of all the National League contenders and their prospects who might be in line for a call-up down the stretch, especially once rosters expand in September. Some of these players might seem to be another half-season or so away, but many are are on the verge of getting a shot, just like Skaggs was.
As for fantasy implications, the focus remains on 2012 impact, but this also will help any keeper and dynasty league owners whose settings require a player to debut in the majors before they can be acquired in fantasy.
You can find the American League version here.
Over the last two seasons, Johnny Cueto’s ERA (2.38) has been lower than any other pitcher in the majors. His ERA is about one full point lower than his FIP (3.24) and xFIP (3.75). I will look at how he achieved the low ERA and if it can be maintained.
