Archive for Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 1/27/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) w/ Paul Sporer

The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Paul Sporer

Strategy Section

  • How many pitchers will throw 200 innings in 2021?
  • Pitcher ramp up from the 2020 short season.
  • Pitchers returning from injury (Chris Sale / Noah Syndergaard / Luis Severino)
    • How do you project innings for 2021?
    • How do you assess their fantasy value?
    • What leagues are these players more (or less) valuable?
  • Super Elite Pitchers (Jacob deGrom / Gerrit Cole / Shane Bieber)
    • How far should the trio be pushed up in drafts?
    • Which hitters should be drafted ahead of the super elite starters?
      • Does the format make a difference?
  • Pitching Strategy in 2021 – Snake Drafts vs. Auctions

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 887 – SP Debates ft. Nick Pollack

1/28/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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STARTING PITCHER DEBATES

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 886 – Starting Pitchers 11-20

1/26/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Late-Round Evaluations: Patiño, Martinez, Wainwright, & Others

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

  • Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
  • Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
  • Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
  • Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
  • Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
  • Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
  • Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
  • Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
  • Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
  • Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
  • Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
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Quality Start Leagues

With the recognition now of how wins is a terrible statistic for starting pitchers a lot of leagues have moved to quality starts. Wins for a pitcher has very little to do with their ability. Sure they can put themselves in a position for a win but they are then reliant on both their offense and bullpen to achieve that win. Just take a look at Jacob deGrom (you can probably hear me sigh from wherever you are reading this). Quality starts is something that is more so based on a pitcher’s performance alone. It’s simple, pitch at least six innings with no more than three earned runs and you earn a quality start. Let’s glance at the quality start leaders from last season.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 884 – Springer to TOR; Top 10 SPs

1/21/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Joe Musgrove Travels Cross Country, Joins Padres

The Padres are at it again, this time participating in a three-team trade that sees them acquiring starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has been a popular sleeper for the past couple of seasons, despite having never posted an ERA below 4.00 or a strikeout rate above 22%. He did accomplish both over 39.2 innings in 2020, though, but obviously such a tiny sample size doesn’t mean a whole lot. His career SIERA is a bit lower than his ERA, offering hope for better and a velocity surge at times also excited many. He’s been a tease so far, so will his new home park give him a better chance of breaking out? Let’s consult the park factors.

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Late-Round Evaluations: Pivetta, Bubic, Gomber, & Others

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

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Starting Pitcher Z-Contact% Improvers

Let’s start off with the obvious here, what is Z-Contact%? If you check out our handy dandy glossary you would see “Pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone/Swings on pitches inside the zone.” For pitchers, quite simply how often do opposing hitters make contact on their pitches when they throw inside the zone. Here are the leaders from 2020.

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