We know that pitchers’ skill levels could change quickly, so it’s important to pay attention. A pitcher could suddenly gain/lose velocity, alter his pitch mix, adjust his mechanics, etc, and suddenly become a new version of himself. So let’s dive into the starting pitchers who improved their SIERA marks most from April to May, driven by a significant improvement in skill metrics.
Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.
Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
With some insane strikeout rates during his short minor league career, all backed by mid-to-upper teen SwStk% marks and even an absurd 21.5% mark at Double-A in 2019, I have been excited about Tarik Skubal ever since he debuted last year. That performance was quite mixed, as he brought his strikeout stuff, punching out 27.6% of opposing batters, but also allowing a crazy 54.2% FB% rate, which is dangerous in our homer-happy times. Since he allowed an inflated 20% HR/FB rate, it resulted in a sky-high 2.53 HR/9 mark. It’s no wonder he sported an ERA near 6.00! Of course, his 4.12 SIERA suggested better days ahead, but all those fly balls are scary, nonetheless.
Yesterday, I used the Statcast Home Runs Leaderboard to identify and discuss the starting pitchers who have allowed more home runs than expected according to Statcast’s calculation. Today, let’s flip to the starting pitchers who have allowed fewer home runs than expected. Are they any sell highs among this group? Let’s find out.
Earlier this month, I reviewed the hitters who had most underperformed and overperformed their Statcast xHRs. But Statcast doesn’t only calculate xHRs for hitters, it does so for pitchers as well. So let’s review the starting pitchers that have allowed at least two more home runs than Statcast has calculated that they should have been expected to allow.
5/25/21
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Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.
Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
Robbie Ray is having a huge season thus far. He has a 3.42 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 47.3 innings and his 3.29 SIERA stands as a career best, even better than in 2017 when he posted a 2.89 ERA but a 3.53 SIERA. While being consistently maddening throughout his career – even in 2017 he had a 4.57 ERA through 8 starts and was likely on some waiver wires only to deliver a 2.24 ERA in his final 20 starts – he didn’t lose widespread fantasy appeal until last year’s 6.62 ERA in 51.7 innings. Let’s dive a bit deeper and see what Ray is doing to drive this success and how much of it is sustainable.
Arsenal is always the easiest place to start in a pitcher breakdown. Off the top we see a velo boost that has his fastball sitting at 95.3 mph, a career high. Looking at just four-seamers, his usage is also up 11 points to 58%. The results have been a bit neutered by the .238 ISO thanks to 7 HR in 125 PA. The .237/.280/.475 line is still much better than last year’s .292/.464/.689, but a bit worse than 2019’s .221/.322/.391 which is a little surprising given the improvements in not only the velocity, but also control.
Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”
Today’s post is brought to you by Vince Velasquez who is schedule to face the Marlins. When I decide which pitchers to target, I look for who is facing some of the weaker offenses and Velasquez popped for being interesting (3.68 ERA, 11.4 K/9) and available. I noticed his 15% K% (5.8 BB/9) and moved on. He broke my simple rule of not rostering a player with a walk rate over 10% BB%. But is 10% the right value? After diving into the numbers, it’s not a bad rule, but I’ll try to shrink that number down.
I use 10% because it’s simple to remember. The equivalent is 3.9 BB/9 which could be rounded up to an even 4.0 BB/9. The deal is that while simple rules help, I’d like to have every advantage. For example, I used to use a 50% GB% to show an advantage. The deal is that between 50% and 55% GB, the pitcher doesn’t gain any advantage in double plays and additional high flyballs (i.e. outs).
The other reason I picked 10% is that only a few pitchers reach this total. Of the 68 qualified starters this season, nine have a walk rate of 10% or higher.
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