Over the last week, I’ve discussed a number of hitters who have recently earned regular playing time. Now let’s shift our focus over to starting pitchers. Let’s dive into four starters who have just recently made their first MLB starts.
Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”
Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.
Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
7/23/21
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Yesterday, I discussed six starting pitchers who had seen their strikeout rates surge the most over the last 30 days compared to the rest of the season to date. Today, we’re going to review the starting pitchers on the opposite end — those whose strikeout rates have declined the most over the last 30 days.
It’s been too long since I’ve released an updated SP ranking here on the site. While I am updating them with regularity on our Patreon, I will make sure to have another couple of updates over the final 2+ months of the season here as well.
The blue bar represents the START of a new tier.
I generally don’t include IL’d guys, but I made an exception for Manoah because he should be back after essentially a minimum stay for a back contusion. He slipped in the dugout and hurt himself, but it looks like he could pitch this weekend or be in line for a 2-start next week.
I view these as 3-4 week rankings given the volatility of pitching and I think this second half will be among the most volatility with pitchers getting skipped and shut down for innings limits. I’m confident that Luis Garcia will be swapped with Cristian Javier in the Astros rotation, but it hasn’t happened yet and so we need to enjoy his excellence while we have it. Garcia’s true talent is probably Top 30, but the rug could be pulled out at any moment so I hedged a bit with his ranking.
The same goes for the Brewers studs, though at a higher level. If we didn’t have any inning concerns, they’d all slot a bit higher.
I’ll answer as many questions as I can in the comments so let me know what you think!
Pitchers sometimes change rapidly. Whether it’s gaining or losing velocity, altering their pitch mix, changing their delivery, moving on the rubber, or something else, it’s important to pay attention to trends in their underlying skills as it could be very telling. So let’s review the strikeout rate surgers over the last 30 days compared to what these pitchers posted for the season heading into this period.
Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.
Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.
That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.
Here’s my preliminary pitcher pool for tonight, July 20, 2021:
| Pitcher | FD | DK | SIERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | Barrel% | Opp | Opp wRC+ | Opp K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | $11,200 | $9,800 | 3.26 | 10.84 | 1.89 | 0.90 | 6.9% | ATL | 103 | 22.9% |
| Aaron Nola | $9,100 | $9,500 | 3.27 | 11.57 | 2.40 | 1.25 | 6.1% | NYY | 110 | 23.6% |
| Trevor Rogers | $10,000 | $10,000 | 3.62 | 11.20 | 3.27 | 0.70 | 5.6% | WSN | 105 | 22.7% |
| Luis Garcia | $9,600 | $10,400 | 3.94 | 9.77 | 3.13 | 1.01 | 6.7% | CLE | 92 | 22.1% |
| Dane Dunning | $7,600 | $6,700 | 3.99 | 9.56 | 3.27 | 0.88 | 6.9% | DET | 85 | 25.8% |
| German Marquez | $8,600 | $8,100 | 4.07 | 8.68 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 4.1% | SEA | 94 | 25.9% |
There are a lot of rosterable pitchers tonight that I didn’t include. Because there are so many, I’m probably staying away from John Means coming off of injury. Tarik Skubal is a strikeout pitcher in a great spot, but his volatility isn’t necessary to take on. Shane McClanahan is a great per-inning pitcher, but the volume is way too uncertain, as a Tampa starter. Alex Wood is having a strong season, but has to face the Dodgers, so I’m out.
That’s not to say that I’m unwilling to take on volume, volatility, and matchup risks. I’d just rather do it with who’s currently in my pool. You can totally play any of those guys and absorb the risks I noted, as they’re all good pitchers — especially in MME. But the focal point of tonight is Nola-Darvish and how to pivot off them or find leverage with them.
TIER ONE: THE ACES — Darvish, Nola
All of the prices on pitching are weird on DK these days, but the most egregious price tag is Aaron Nola on FD. Sad because he can turn it into a great strikeout spot with his skills, flipping the Yankees’ volatility on its head. We would’ve liked to see him closer to Yu Darvish’s tag to put people to more of a decision.
Instead, it puts us to the test. On DK, they’re projected about the same and priced about the same with the exact same amount of projected ownership, so play whoever you want. On FD, Nola is carrying about a 4:3 ownership gap, so do we take the better value and absorb the higher ownership in Nola or spend up to pivot on Darvish?
One approach is to just never play the chalkier pitcher, especially in a tough matchup, but Darvish’s matchup isn’t great — even without Ronald Acuna Jr — because the BRaves don’t strike out much. I sympathize, but this approach is ignorant of the fact that we can play the chalk pitcher and be contrarian with our bats to have a leveraged lineup, despite the chalky pitcher.
Another, for DK, is to not play the Nola-Darvish combo and already avoid the chalky build; but, then, we need to spend down at pitcher to still avoid the chalky build, as I’m pretty sure the chalky build won’t specifically be Nola-Darvish, but it will be two pitchers above $9k.
Another is to completely avoid both Nola and Darvish — or go underweight on them — to populate our exposure more to the other two high-priced pitchers in our pool.
TIER TWO: THE NEAR ACES — Rogers, Garcia
Trevor Rogers isn’t an ace, as we refer to aces in DFS, yet, but he’s crushin’ it his way. Only he, Nola, and Triston McKenzie are qualified pitchers with over 11.00 K/9 on the slate. Rogers has the third-lowest SIERA on the slate. And his HR/9 and barrel rate are displaying elite power prevention. Sure, the Nationals scored 18 last night, but they’re about the same as the Braves — lower strikeout rates and about half the lineup packed with power.
Rogers’ control raises his SIERA and lowers his projection, but we can sacrifice 10-15% of projection to play a guy at 30-35% of Nola-Davirsh’s ownership on DK and about 20-25% on FD. The price tag is on par, but ownership is a cost, too, as we get much savings there that he’s in consideration for single-entry. You can isolate to Nola-Darvish in single-entry, but we should aggressively have at least 15-20% Rogers in MME to be overweight on the field.
Luis Garcia isn’t an ace and won’t be one any time soon, but he’s really good. SIERA has fallen to 3.80 this season, as his K/9 has risen to 10.23, and Cleveland is kinda’ trash. They don’t strike out much, but the strikeout matchup is on par with Darvish and Rogers’ matchup. We can take the same strikeout matchup and raise our run prevention at a fraction of the ownership of Nola-Darvish.
On FD, Rogers and Garcia allow us to play whoever we want after them, as they’re bunched in the middle of the absurd Darvish-Nola price gap. On DK, we can play Rogers or Garcia with Nola or Darvish, but the builds are gonna be about the same, as the salaries are pretty pooled together. Play Rogers or Garcia while spending down at SP2 and we can play whoever we want in our stacks.
TIER THREE: VALUE AND LEVERAGE — Marquez and Dunning
The four I mentioned above are clearly the best plays and taking risks on Means, Skubal, McClanahan, and Wood are all fine plays on FD, but German Marquez is underprojected and Dane Dunning has an outside shot to getting six innings in great matchups for run prevention and strikeouts to get cheap’ish leverage at SP2 on DK.
Marquez is a supersolid pitcher at Coors Field, I’ve written here before and I’ll do it again:
3.40 xFIP
9.50 K/9
2.77 BB/9
1.14 HR/9
If you told us that that was being put up against the friggin’ Mariners in any ballpark, we scream like Sally, “YES! YES! YES!” His price tag is a little on the higher end than we’re accustomed to, but it’s about adequate and no one’s gonna play him. He’s probably my primary SP2 to get me to Nola or Darvish (I’m not sure yet, don’t bother me!) and whatever bats I want on DK.
Dunning has a nut matchup against the Tigers, as well, in a much better park at a greater discount. He isn’t cheap because he’s bad. He’s cheap because we never know if we’re getting four or five-plus innings out of him. I’m saying that there’s enough of a chance to complete six that we can go 5% in MME, still be overweight on the field, and literally just play whoever we want because no one is playing pitchers in that price tier, so he alone gives those lineups a ton of leverage throughout our lineups.
Stats cited are since 2020 unless otherwise noted. Ownership projections via Rotoginders at 11:00a.m.
7/19/21
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Approximately 32 minutes of joyous analysis.
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7/15/21
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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PATREON
SOLO DOLO
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