Let’s continue reviewing the early season starting pitcher fastball velocity changes. Today, we’ll look at the decliners through the first start and compare those velocity readings to what each posted through the rest of the season. Were these first start declines early warnings to sell while you can or did the pitchers quickly bounce back?
I’m just going to keep grinding my way through the starting pitchers hoping to find a couple of gems.
For reference, here are the pitchers I’ve already profiled:
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Trevor Bauer (308)
Even before the recent criminal charges, Bauer was a divisive player with the recent incident leaving him with no support. He’s such a hot topic, I about skipped him over. Read the rest of this entry »
Back during the first week of April, starting pitchers had made just one start…if they had taken the mound at all yet. So obviously, there wasn’t a whole lot to analyze. Rather than go dark for several weeks until there’s enough of a sample size to say anything, I decided to look at which starting pitchers had increased their velocity the most versus 2020 in that one and only start. Now I want to go back and find out if these pitchers actually sustained those increases, and if so, did it also result in a strikeout rate spike. Let’s find out.
With the projection analysis out of the way, it’s time to start finding some starting pitcher gems for those arms being drafted at pick 300 or later according to NFBC’s ADP.
For reference, here are the pitchers I’ve already profiled:
James Kaprielian (300 ADP):
Kaprielian didn’t start the season in the majors but was recalled in mid-May to join the A’s rotation. He was likely kept from throwing too many innings since he’s returning from Tommy John surgery, but he showed signs of life.
To start out, his velocity dropped 2 mph from 2020 but that 2020 value was from just 3.2 IP of bullpen work. In 2021, he was sitting 93 mph with a steady climb from averaging 92 mph up to 94 mph. This value is in line with his 2016 Baseball America report of “… sits in the low 90’s and topped out at 96.” Read the rest of this entry »
Drafting early into the “Draft Season” can definitely be a double-edged sword, you could be taking advantage of the early market but you also are risking potential injuries to your players. If you do prefer to draft early I decided to dig into the current ADP and check out some starting pitchers who are going so late that they might be hard to find.
I’m finally done crunching numbers (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8) with late-season pitcher rate stats being the last to go. It’s so monotonous and painstaking, but I’ve learned a few things going through it all. The Average rises to the top … again with several other projections popping to the top.
First, here are the projections analyzed.
To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »
Today, I share the final review of my pre-season Pod Projections posts. This time, we shift to a starting pitcher, Zach Plesac, whose original writeup is here. Plesac did post a sub-4.00 ERA during his 2019 debut, but it wasn’t backed by his skills, as he handily outperformed his ugly 5.13 SIERA. During the short 2020, he enjoyed a true breakout as his strikeout rate surged thanks to pitch mix changes. Let’s see how he did for an encore and how it compared to the projections.
I’m on the home stretch with most of the comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) already done. Today, the counting stats for the late-season pitcher projections taking center stage. The boys over at Razzball dominated most of the results with the aggregators coming in near the top … again (might be a theme).
First, here are the projections analyzed.
To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »
2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the starting pitching position for 2022. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
See my other ranks here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/
We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. It’s time for part two, let’s have some fun!
