Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Gainers — Apr 6, 2021, A Review

Back during the first week of April, starting pitchers had made just one start…if they had taken the mound at all yet. So obviously, there wasn’t a whole lot to analyze. Rather than go dark for several weeks until there’s enough of a sample size to say anything, I decided to look at which starting pitchers had increased their velocity the most versus 2020 in that one and only start. Now I want to go back and find out if these pitchers actually sustained those increases, and if so, did it also result in a strikeout rate spike. Let’s find out.

I arbitrarily highlighted the 2021 RoS (rest of season) minus 1st start velocity in yellow if the starting pitcher sustained a velocity spike versus 2020, even if the difference between the two years narrowed. I considered a couple of pitchers too close to 2020, even though they did still increase it. Technically, every single starting pitcher did post an increased fastball velocity throughout the remainder of the year, even after the first start, but nearly every single one was unable to maintain the same degree of increase shown during the first start. It suggests that it definitely pays to pay attention to early season velocity changes, but don’t get too excited about a big increase, as just like any other significant change, it’s unlikely to fully stick.

Shohei Ohtani, the pitcher, was a massively important velocity reading to see. He underwent Tommy John surgery in late 2018 and didn’t take the mound again until the middle of the 2020 season. He ended up throwing just 1.2 innings after another elbow injury. It really was anyone’s guess what we would get from him in 2021. The fact that his velocity was so much greater during his first start than what we saw from him in those 1.2 innings, and back up to where he was during his 2018 debut, suggested he was fully healthy. The only thing left to question is whether his control would return. It did. If you acquired him after that first start solely based on his velocity, you probably did pretty well, though with 11 walks in his first 8.2 innings, it must have been difficult to trust his control was actually back.

Corbin Burnes failed to maintain that big first start velocity jump, but still enjoyed a 0.8 MPH surge over the rest of the season vs 2020. While it didn’t improve his already elite strikeout rate, he posted his highest O-Swing%, which undoubtedly helped reduce his walk rate to a career low. How much the higher velocity played a role in those additional outside-the-zone swings, I don’t know, but this was clearly a masterful year, fully backed by his underlying metrics.

After a brief drop below 90 MPH in 2020, Madison Bumgarner’s fastball velocity was back above 90 MPH! Did that mean he might regain some shallow mixed league relevancy? Nope, it did not. Bumgarner managed to maintain his increased velocity all season long, which you would have thought would be a good sign. His strikeout rate did rebound somewhat, but still finished below most of his pre-2020 seasons. Even though he managed to post yet another suppressed BABIP and get his HR/FB rate back into better than league average territory, he suddenly was unable to strand runners at his typical clip, posting his lowest LOB% ever and the first below 70%. Since his low BABIP and HR/FB rate have been done long enough to believe they are skills SIERA isn’t giving him credit for, a more normal LOB% closer to his career average would have likely resulted in an ERA closer to 4.00. That’s not great, but certainly better than feared given his 2020 performance. At a likely cheap price, I wouldn’t mind rostering him in 2022 if I owned an NL-Only team.

Tanner Houck was another who maintained his velocity speak all season long, and it was impressive considering our own scouting report had him sitting between 91 and 94 MPH, while here he was averaging 94 MPH. His strikeout rate was well above his minor league marks, so if this velocity surge is sustained, he’s now established a new level and we need to reevaluate everything we thought beforehand.

Brady Singer couldn’t keep up that first game velocity and only posted a 0.3 MPH gain over the rest of the season. His strikeout rate actually dropped from his 2020 rookie debut, while his BABIP exploded, going from far better than league average to far worse. Hilariously, his SIERA was virtually identical each season, which is likely closer to what should be expected of him in 2022, unless there are major skills changes.

Mike Minor’s first start velocity had me excited, as he had seen a major decline in 2020 and a rebound would suggest that there’s nothing to worry about. Unfortunately, his velocity dropped back down over the rest of the season and only gained 0.4 MPH versus 2020. He ended up posting his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. Combine that with his highest BABIP since 2014 and second straight mid-70% LOB%, and you’re left with a 5.00+ ERA, despite a 4.20 SIERA. He’s as boring as it gets and no fantasy owner enters an AL-Only draft hoping to land him, but at his likely depressed price, I would be totally fine doing so.

Ughhhh, do I need to talk about Dylan Bundy again? My stubbornness to either bench or drop him helped ruin my Tout Wars and LABR teams this season. With his velocity up early on, I remained optimistic a turnaround was coming, but it never did, and his failed tumbled as the season progressed. His daily game velocity graph line was a perfect descending trend. Yikes.

After Zack Greinke’s velocity dropped to just 87.1 MPH in 2020, you had to assume he had hit rock bottom and there was only upside from that point. You were right if you felt that way, but after losing about three mile per hour in 2020, do we really care that he gained back half that in 2021 in his first start? He was the only pitcher on the list who actually gained even more velocity the rest of the way, but still posted the second lowest velocity of his career. Somehow, the down velocity didn’t affect his strikeout rate in 2020, but it finally came crashing down in 2021. If there’s anyone who could make sub-90 velocity work, it’s Greinke, but at his age and seeing that it finally caught up to him in 2021, it’s hard to bet on much of a bounceback. He’s looking like just name value right now.