Comparing Underlying Metrics Between Pitchers Part II

We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. It’s time for part two, let’s have some fun!

Player A: 13.3 K-BB%, 4.19 SIERA, 28.6 CSW%, 53.9 GB%
Player B: 14.8 K-BB%, 4.07 SIERA, 28.0 CSW, 51.6 GB%

Very even here but the context will matter in this one, you shall see! Much like the last article let’s move on to more basic stats.

Player A: 4.51 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Player B: 4.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP

Player A is Dane Dunning and Player B is German Marquez. Sure Marquez will likely get you 180 innings but if you look at Steamer Projections Dane Dunning could be a much cheaper better option. Steamer project Dane Dunning to pitch 154 innings with a 4.28 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, while it projects Marquez for 193 innings with a 4.53 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Do you want more innings and the headache of Coors Field? Or do you prefer the potential better ratios and a pitcher’s ballpark?

Dane Dunning will certainly be drafted later than German Marquez and while the innings could justify it why not just wait for Dunning? Dunning finished with a 4.51 ERA but it came with a 3.94 FIP, .338 BABIP, and 4.12 SIERA. He doesn’t throw hard but his sinker induces ground balls, his slider had a 19.7 SwStr%, and his changeup an 18.0 SwStr%. Both of those breaking balls also have a high chase rate. The strikeout ability is there, it’s just a matter of time before he unlocks his full potential.

Player A: 158.2 IP, 16.1 K-BB%, 4.20 SIERA, 26.8 CSW%, 33.7 O-Swing%, 85.8 Z-Contact%
Player B: 162.1 IP, 15.9 K-BB%, 4.01 SIERA, 31.4 CSW%, 28.0 O-Swing%, 85.5 Z-Contact%

Similar profiles here, Player A has a slightly higher K-BB% while Player B has a lower SIERA and higher CSW%. Both basically allow the same zone contact but Player A gets more chases outside of the zone. A little give and take here but both are very similar.

Player A: 5.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP
Player B: 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP

Huge difference here in terms of ERA and there is one major reason for it. Player A had an HR/9 of 1.47 while Player B had an HR/9 of 0.72. Player A is Mike Minor and Player B is Lance McCullers.

I liked this one because of Mike Minor. When he has a 3.59 ERA in 2019 it was because he was able to dip his home run rate to 1.30. While we can’t say for sure if that will happen again it’s of course a possibility. In deep leagues or NFBC DC’s Minor is a solid grab because he has decent underlying numbers and seems like he is just one adjustment away.

Player A: 15.4% K-BB%, 4.17 SIERA, 28.8 CSW%, 94.9 FB Velo, 48.4 GB%
Player B: 13.3% K-BB%, 4.38 SIERA, 27.2 CSW%, 94.6 FB Velo, 49.3 GB%

Player A easily takes the cake on this one. Player A also pitched 149 innings while Player B pitched 128.1 innings giving us a bigger sample for Player A. On to the basic stats!

Player A: 4.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP
Player B: 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP

Two big gaps in terms of ERA and WHIP here between the two players and although Player A looks better under the hood he still was outperformed by Player B. There is likely one big reason for that, Coors Field. Player A is Jon Gray and Player B is Ian Anderson.

Jon Gray actually had reverse splits in 2021 where he pitched better at home than on the road. The problem is that when you constantly go between two different altitudes like that, where it shapes your pitches differently, it’s going to mess you up in one way or another. We have never seen Jon Gray pitch on another team and we are finally about to.

Gray seems to have a ton of potential. He throws in the mid ’90s with his fastball, his slider has consistently been a true whiff pitch, and his changeup/curveball has always provided a good mix of weak contact and ground balls.





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Joe Wilkeymember
2 years ago

Re: Dunning/Marquez, Marquez projects for 50 more Ks than Dunning, both due to rate and projected innings. I’m not so sure the K ability is there with Dunning, just because he has two secondary pitches that have “good” swing and miss stuff. He throws his sinker more than half the time, and it has a SwStk% that is 24% below league average for sinkers. His slider is 16% above league average on SwStk, and his changeup is 26% above league average. When he’s not getting whiffs, he’s getting hit pretty good, all three of those pitches are 10% worse than league average on balls in play by xwOBA.

Marquez by comparison is nearly 40% below league average SwStk for his four seamer, but nearly 22% above league average SwStk for his slider, and a whopping 54% better than league average for SwStk on his curveball. Meanwhile, on balls in play, Marquez is roughly league average with his slider and fastball, and 8% better than league average with his curveball.

They’re roughly the same age, so I think I would definitely take Marquez over Dunning by a good margin. Better K potential and better balls in play results. You can avoid Marquez against good teams in Coors if you like, but I’d say he’s even startable against middling or worse teams in that stadium.