Now that the analysis hitter projection comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) are done, it is time for the pitchers to take center stage. For the first article, I’ll measure the accuracy of counting stats from early March. Razzball had a near clean sweep as it only missed on Saves.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I reviewed my hitter Pod Projections vs Steamer projections comparisons. Let’s now move along to the starting pitchers and ERA. As a reminder from my original post:

Though Steamer is the best pitching projection system out there, it struggles on pitchers that have shown consistent BABIP and HR/FB rate suppression skills and deficiencies, as what usually works for the majority of pitchers — projecting a heavy dose of regression to the MLB mean — means it misses on those uncommon exceptions. I use Statcast’s xBABIP now for my projections, so I’m not afraid to forecast a mark that strays from the league average. However, I certainly still include some regression as we don’t always have enough batted balls in a pitcher’s history for that mark to stabilize.

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We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. Let’s have some fun!

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Let’s play a game. We’ll look at one single at-bat and go through each pitch pausing in-between to assess what we think will happen next. The goal of this game is to guess the final outcome; pitch type, pitch location, and result. Let’s get started with our first edition of…Guess!…That!…Pitch!!

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Sandy Alcantara enjoyed a nice breakout season in 2021, but it didn’t come without reason. Sandy worked hard to change his arsenal and his pitch mix to take a step forward towards becoming an elite pitcher. In the past, analysts loved mentioning Sandy so they can use the “Oh Sandy,” Grease line but it has now turned into analysts saying “Is Sandy Alcantara a top 10 pitcher?” I don’t want to hone in on that subject though, I want to focus on what got Sandy into that conversation and where the 205.2 innings pitched, 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 24.0 K% line came from.

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What’s the first thing you do when you get a new spreadsheet? My answer; sort ascending, sort descending. That’s what I did on the 2021 pitching leaderboards. I looked at the plate discipline metrics for qualified pitchers and sorted the sheet by descending swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). The names I saw were not surprising. Corbin Burnes leads the group at 16.6%. He’s followed by Max Scherzer (15.9%) and Robbie Ray (15.5%). José Berríos is not in the top 30. In fact, when you sort the same list by ascending swinging-strike rate, he’s in the top 10, meaning he had one of the lowest swinging strike rates in the league (9.9% to be specific). The lowest swinging strike getters in the league this year were Adam Wainwright (8.1%), Chris Flexen 플렉센 (8.6%), and Dallas Keuchel (8.7%).

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During the all-star break, I once again polled you on which group of 10 starting pitchers would post a lower ERA during the second half, and which ERA range each group’s aggregate would fall into. Let’s now review the results.

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Cal Quantrill came over to the Cleveland Guardians (should have been the Spiders) in a trade with the Padres that involved pitcher Mike Clevinger. Quantrill didn’t have much success in San Diego and Cleveland decided to use him in a relief role for 2020. After spending the first two months of 2021 in the bullpen Cal Quantrill finally got the call to join the Cleveland rotation. In 2021 he finished with 149.2 innings, appeared in 40 games, and pitch 22 games as a starter. As a starter, he produced a 3.12 ERA, 12.9 K-BB%, and 1.15 WHIP.

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Given the big adjustment to Major League hitters compared to minor leaguers, small sample volatility, and the randomness of the three luck metrics (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%), rookie starting pitchers often disappoint. However, that disappointment is sometimes superficial and only on the surface. If you look deeper, you might discover that the pitcher did everything well he could control, but other factors conspired against him to inflate his ERA. With that in mind, let’s discuss five rookie starters with hefty ERA marks, but SIERA marks around 4.00 or below. These guys may even be sitting in your free agent pool and ready to be plucked as potential keepers next year.

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In most weekly leagues, the ability to add and drop players is gone for this season. Since there are no more moves, I’m going to analyze the most added and dropped players in NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship with the main goal to create a composite replacement-level player.

For reference, the Online Championship (OC) leagues have 12 teams while the Main Event (ME) has 15. Both of the leagues require 23 starters each week with 7 bench spots (no IL spots). At all times, 360 players will be rostered in an Online league and 450 in a Main Event league. The reason I decided on the two NFBC formats were:

• The data is freely available.
• The information is from several leagues (43 Main Events, 199 Online Championships) with the same ruleset.
• The leagues remain competitive longer since there is decent money on the line.
• With two formats (12-team and 15-team), a comparison can be done on the different player pools.

I know at times we may seem a little NFBC centric here at Rotographs. Now, if some other platform had the ability to select a league type and make available all the adds and drops, I’d use them. The NFBC is the only platform that offers this service. Read the rest of this entry »