Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the latest update to Week Six 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – John Lackey
FLA – Ricky Nolasco
TEX – Colby Lewis
STL – Brad Penny
TOR – Brandon Morrow
ANA – Joel Pineiro
HOU – Brett Myers
DET – Rick Porcello
NYM – Jonathon Niese
KCR – Brian Bannister
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

After getting roughed up by the Rays, Lackey has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts, picking up two wins in the process. His GB/FB ratio is essentially where it’s been the past few years, but Lackey is striking out fewer batters and issuing more walks. His 1.50 K/BB ratio is the worst of his career. Lackey is surviving thanks to a lower LD% and a lower HR/FB rate. He has posted a lower than average HR/FB rate in six of his eight seasons in the majors and so far this year it checks in at 7.1 percent.

Six of the seven homers allowed by Nolasco this year have come in his home park, where he has pitched 16 innings. The rest of the Marlins’ staff has allowed 7 HR in 135 IP at Sun Life Stadium. The average velocity on Nolasco’s fastball is down 1.1 mph and his K/9 has fallen from 9.49 to 7.26. A 1.82 BB/9 has kept his FIP and xFIP right around his ERA of 4.08, which checks in slightly better than the NL average of a 4.20 ERA.

A wicked slider which he throws over 30 percent of the time has helped make Lewis’ second stint in the majors go significantly better than his first. That has led to a 31.4 O-Swing% and a 10.24 K/9 rate. Somewhere on the West Coast, Carson Cistulli cracks a smile over this.

Last year Penny had a 1.13 GB/FB rate but it is back up to 1.49 this year. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan gets all of the credit for the turnaround yet Penny had a 1.63 GB/FB rate last year with the Giants. Penny is posting the lowest walk rate of his career (1.77 BB/9) and perhaps Duncan deserves credit for that. Still, Penny is pitching better than his peripherals, with an xFIP nearly two runs higher than his ERA.

In his last four outings, Morrow is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and has 34 Ks in 24.1 IP. The overall numbers still look bad because of the brutal first two starts but you should definitely check the waiver wire to see if he is still available in your league.

Pineiro still has tremendous GB and BB rates, so why is his ERA sitting at 5.30 or nearly two runs a game higher than last season? Check out that 15.6 HR/FB rate, over twice as high as last year’s mark. Pineiro has also been unlucky with a .351 BABIP. The bottom line is that his xFIP of 3.89 is just slightly higher than last year’s 3.68.

This week Myers has two road starts. He has a 2.57 ERA on the road this year and an 0-2 record.

The K/9 for Porcello has risen from 4.69 to 5.70 this season. Unfortunately his BABIP has risen from .281 to .396 and combine that with a 58.4 LOB% and you get a 7.50 ERA. Porcello’s FIP and xFIP are right in line with last year, when he posed a 3.96 ERA and 14 Wins.

Omar Minaya eschewed adding a free agent pitcher in the offseason, saying he liked his internal candidates as much as what was available after Lackey signed. Niese is trying his best to make Minaya look good and has a 3.60 ERA after six starts despite a .382 BABIP.

This season Bannister has made three starts during the day and three at night. He is 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA in the sunshine and 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA under the lights. In his career, Bannister is 18-8 with a 4.06 ERA in day games and 13-32 with a 5.26 ERA at night.

Monasterios was originally signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela. He was shipped to Philadelphia in the Bobby Abreu deal and was underwhelming in three-plus years in the Phillies’ farm system. This year he was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft and then sold to the Dodgers. He has been effective in relief for Los Angeles and gets bumped into the rotation as Los Angeles looks everywhere for help for its rotation. However, his xFIP is two full runs higher than his ERA.

Today’s premium prospects receive more scrutiny than ever. Short of parting the Red Sea and ending world hunger (I’m looking at you, Strasburg), hot-shot young players may receive an, “is that it?” reaction from fans when they merely hold their own in the early stages of their respective big league careers.

Take Tampa’s David Price. The 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft abused minor league hitters and received national acclaim by flinging upper-90’s heat and sinister upper-80’s sliders out of the ‘pen during the 2008 playoffs. Entering 2009, Price adorned magazine covers and battled Matt Wieters for the titles of Best Prospect Ever and Time Man of the Year.

While Price didn’t dominate from the get-go as a starter, he more than held his own for a 23-year-old in the A.L. East. In 128.1 IP, he posted rates of 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP. In 2010, Price has a 1.91 ERA in 42.1 frames. While he hasn’t suddenly morphed into Sandy Koufax circa 1963, Price has shown improvement in a few key areas.

In ’09, Price didn’t get batters to chase or swing through a pitch all that often. His outside swing percentage was 22.9 (25-27% MLB average), and his swinging strike percentage was a mild 7.5 (8-8.5% MLB average). This year, Price is getting outside swings 30 percent of the time, while getting a swinging strike 8.4 percent.

During his first year in the rotation, the 6-6 southpaw relied upon two main pitches: a 93 MPH four-seam fastball and an 83-84 MPH slider. The second time around, Price’s repertoire appears more expansive. Rather than tossing a four-seamer 71 percent of the time and mixing in sliders about 20 percent, Price has thrown a two-seamer about 24 percent and has gone to a 76-77 MPH curveball (thrown about 18 percent) as his breaking pitch of choice. His percentage of four-seam fastballs is in the low forties, and his slider percentage is less than half of what it was last season.

With the two-seamer (thrown about 90 MPH, with about 2 inches more tailing action in on lefties than the average two-seamer), Price’s ground ball rate has ticked up a bit, from 41.5% to 43.4%. The curve, while not getting many whiffs (6.1%, compared to the 10.5% MLB average), is getting plenty of strikes: 70.2%, way above the 58% big league average.

Whether the introduction of another breaking pitch has played a part or not, Price’s slider has been harder to hit this year. In ’09, the slide-piece was whiffed at just 5.9% (13% MLB average). In 2010, that whiff rate has climbed to a more palatable 11.1%. Perhaps the presence of two breaking balls has hitters less certain about what Price is going to throw. Along the same lines, his four-seamer, whiffed at 8.2 percent in 2009, has an elite 10 percent whiff rate in 2010 (6 percent MLB average).

The 24 year-old won’t keep that shiny ERA, as his BABIP will rise from .231, he’ll strand fewer than 81.6 percent of base runners and he’ll surrender more than a 4.3 HR/FB%. But Price has whiffed 7.02 per nine innings, walked 2.98 and has a solid 4.02 xFIP.

This is just a theory, but David Price with four pitches would certainly appear to be harder to hit than David Price with just two offerings. Now, batters have to anticipate four-seam, two-seam, curve or slider, as opposed to mainly just four-seam or slider. Price might not yet be a top-of-the-line starter, but he’s getting there.

Scoop these two players up if they’re available–after you give Mom a hug, that is…

Travis Snider, Blue Jays (Owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues)

A 6-0, 235 pound lefty thumper taken with the 14th pick in the 2006 draft, Snider shredded minor league pitching (.304/.382/.533, 11.1 BB%, .229 ISO) while reaching the majors for parts of his age 20 and 21 seasons. While some seem disappointed with his work thus far (a .330 wOBA in 466 career PA), there’s no shame in being a league-average hitter in the majors at ages in which most batters are taking cuts in High-A or Double-A. Take note of a couple of plate discipline trends for Snider over the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons:

2008: 33.3 Outside Swing%, 68.5 Z-Swing%, 70 Contact%
2009: 27.1 Outside Swing%, 71.8 Z-Swing%, 71.3 Contact%
2010: 21.4 Outside Swing%, 72.2 Z-Swing%, 76.6 Contact%

(Outside Swing= percentage of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone; the MLB average has been 25-27% in recent years. Z-Swing= percentage of swings on pitches within the strike zone; the MLB average has been 63-65% recently. The average Contact rate is 80-81%).

Snider is gradually laying off pitcher’s pitches, swinging at more in-zone offerings and making more contact. So far this season, he has batted .227/.318/.433, with an 11.8 percent walk rate, a 23.7 percent punch out rate, a .206 ISO and a .325 wOBA. He has elite power in that pre-slim-down Matt Stairs frame, and he’s controlling the zone well. That’s not to say that everything is perfect: Snider has a 22.7 infield/fly ball percentage that’s basically twice the MLB average. Those weak pop ups are easy outs, and help explain his .257 BABIP. But overall, a 22-year-old slugger who’s taking a more enlightened plate approach is well worth a look.

Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs (12%)

Picked up from the Pirates last summer (along with lefty reliever John Grabow) for RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and INF Josh Harrison, Gorzelanny lost the faith of Pittsburgh’s new regime. The Bucs’ second-round pick in the ’03 draft compiled an impressive minor league resume (8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 career) and rated #96 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to 2006. But, after so-so performances in 2006 (4.88 xFIP) and 2007 (4.82 xFIP), Gorzelanny imploded in 2008 on his way to a 5.84 xFIP.

Described by BA as possessing 90-92 MPH gas capable of hitting 95, a slider that could be “unhittable at times” and a rapidly improving changeup in the ’06 Prospect Handbook, Gorzo devolved into a guy with a high-80’s fastball, no slider to speak of and a marginal changeup. Add in injury problems (elbow tendinitis in ’06, shoulder tightness in ’07, and middle finger and shoulder ailments in ’08), and the lefty looked busted.

Things began to change in 2009, however, as Gorzelanny managed a K per inning, 3.26 BB/9 and a 3.73 xFIP in 47 innings (seven starts, 15 ‘pen appearances), mostly for the Cubs. And, given a chance to start full-time in 2010, the 27-year-old is off to a fantastic start.

In 35 innings, Gorzelanny has 9.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 3.34 xFIP. That velocity he showed as a Pirates farmhand doesn’t appear to be coming back (89.9 MPH with the fastball), But Gorzo’s using his once-vaunted slider over a quarter of the time and he’s getting a bunch of swings on pitches off the plate (34.6 O-Swing%). His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 11.6% (8.3% MLB average).

Gorzelanny isn’t likely to keep up this pace, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is quite useful (7.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.93 FIP). And look at that ownership rate–Carlos Silva (29% owned) is on more than twice as many fantasy squads as Gorzo. That should soon change.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Six.

Right now only 23 pitchers are scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. Of those, 12 are currently starting in less than 10 percent of leagues while five are active in 70 percent or more. So, there are slim pickings in the middle class, or where I usually try to focus on for this column.

Aaron Cook – He has allowed five runs in four of his last six starts, including his last outing at Petco. Cook gets two home starts this week, where he has actually fared much better this year. But he opens up against Roy Halladay. If that was not bad enough, Cook is 1-5 lifetime against the Phillies. His second start is against the surging Scott Olsen. It all adds up to a pitcher to reserve for this week.

Wade LeBlanc – You will not find many pitchers with a .353 BABIP and a 1.16 ERA after four games, but that is exactly what LeBlanc has managed to do so far this season. He achieves that thanks to the one-two combination of zero home runs allowed and a 90.3 LOB%. After opening with three of his first four games in the friendly confines of Petco, LeBlanc hits the road to face the red-hot Barry Zito in his first start. He is back home against the Dodgers in his second game, but LeBlanc is 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his brief career against Los Angeles. Put him on the bench if you have other options this week.

John Maine – Since I selected him as a “Hunch” 10 days ago, Maine has gone 1-0 with 15 Ks and 5 BB in his last 12 IP after a brutal start to his season. He still has not recovered the lost velocity on his fastball, but he proved he could pitch effectively without it. In his last game, Maine threw fastballs on 92 of his 102 pitches, averaged 89.19 with his heater, allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP and lost a win when the bullpen blew a two-run lead. Maine has favorable matchups this week so make sure he is in your starting lineup.

Scott Olsen – Everyone knows about the no-hitter he carried into the eighth inning in his last start, but that was the third straight solid outing in a row for Olsen, who is pitching like he is ticked off that he started the season in the minors. He is 2-0 with 5 BB and 20 Ks in his last 20.1 IP. Olsen faces an uphill task with two road starts this week but ride the hot streak and make sure he is in your lineup. His best pitch is his slider and Olsen faces the Mets and Rockies this week, two teams that are below-average against that pitch.

Jake Westbrook – Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Westbrook is on there for a reason as he has not delivered good results this year, with an 0-2 record and a 5.74 ERA. But there are some encouraging signs for the veteran. His 6.03 K/9 is his highest since 2001 and he still gets a ton of ground balls. Westbrook is being hurt now by the gopher ball, as he carries an 18.2 HR/FB ratio. He squares off against the Royals and Orioles this week, two teams in the middle of the pack in HR hit, and who have combined for a 19-39 record. If you are looking for a pitcher to stream this week for his two starts, Westbrook has a good shot to pick up a win and hopefully not hut too bad in the other categories.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Six are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Garza, Hanson, Lee, Zito, Billingsley, Lilly, Vazquez, Arroyos, Robertson, Willis, Cahill, R. Lopez, D. Davis, Kendrick, Atilano, Ohlendorf, D. Hernandez, G. Smtih.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Four pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 6.94 ERA, 1.629 WHIP (2 starts)
Davis – Advised to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP (2)
Duke – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 10.80 ERA, 2.400 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 5.06 ERA, 1.313 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.769 WHIP (2)

Mike Leake went from Arizona State to the Arizona Fall League to Goodyear, Arizona to Cincinnati in the blink of an eye. The Reds selected the 6-1, 190 pound right-hander with the eighth pick in the 2009 draft, and after impressive fall league and spring training performances, Leake cracked the major league rotation to open 2010.

Leading up to the draft, Baseball America said the following about Leake:

What he lacks in pure physicality, he makes up for in athleticism and results. Leake pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits 88-92 mph. He can dial it up to 94, but prefers to work at lower speeds to get more movement. Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, he gets a lot of armside run and sink on his fastball that results in a lot of groundballs. He also throws a changeup, slider and cutter that grade out as above-average offerings.

In five starts so far, Leake has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9, with a strong 54.5 percent ground ball rate. His ERA (2.94) outpaces his expected FIP (4.37), as Leake has benefitted from a low .263 batting average on balls in play, a 6.9 home run per fly ball rate (the big league average is around 10-12 percent) and a 77.7 percent strand rate that’s probably going to come down some. That’s not to take a negative outlook on his start: for a guy with very limited professional experience to reach the majors and perform at a league-average clip from the get-go is quite impressive.

Leake has placed 48.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (right at the MLB average), while getting a first pitch strike 58.9 percent (57.7% MLB average). After issuing 12 free passes against the Cubs and Pirates, Leake has shown much better control over his last three starts. Hitters are making contact 82.8 percent of the time (80.7% MLB average), and tallying swinging strikes 6.4 percent (8.3% MLB average).

That BA scouting report noted Leake’s laundry list of pitches, and the Sun Devils star hasn’t been bashful about mixing all of them into his game plan. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, Leake is showcasing an 88-89 MPH sinker, an 80-81 MPH slider, an 83 MPH changeup, a 77 MPH curveball, an 89 MPH cutter and an 88-89 MPH four-seam fastball (it could probably be lumped in with the sinker, but the pitch has slightly less tailing action in on righty batters). Here are the strike and whiff percentages for the pitches so far, compared to the major league average:

Leake’s sinker is getting strikes, if few whiffs. His slider and changeup have been excellent, getting batters to swing and miss at rates well above the major league average. Those hitters are having a hard time laying off the slider and change: they have swung at the slider 54.1 percent (47.7% MLB average) and the changeup 60 percent (48.1% MLB average). The less-utilized curve and cutter aren’t hitting the mark or fooling opponents.

Overall, Leake’s beginning in the majors has to be considered a success. He’s throwing strikes after a bumpy beginning and getting plenty of grounders. The 22 year-old hasn’t missed a lot of bats, and he might not be a huge strikeout pitcher in the long run. But with an expansive repertoire, average K rates, good control and a tendency to keep the ball down, Leake could become a poor man’s Tim Hudson.

When San Francisco Giants starter Tim Lincecum broke into the majors back in May of 2007, he was a mop-topped, rail thin kid firing mid-90’s bullets toward home plate. While he still might fit the physical description of a high school freshman, his pitching approach has changed drastically over the years.

During the 2007 season, Lincecum averaged 94.2 MPH with his fastball, throwing the pitch about 67 percent of the time while mixing in 81 MPH curveballs (thrown 20 percent) and 84 MPH changeups (13 percent). Take a look at his pitch selection since that point:

Lincecum’s fastball velocity has dipped nearly three MPH since 2007, and he’s going to the heat far less often. Instead, he’s increasingly relying upon what can only be described as a toxic changeup.

According to our pitch type run values, Timmy’s change has been worth +3.27 runs per 100 pitches over the past three calendar years. It’s the sort of offering that can cause batters to have an existential crisis at the dish: Lincecum has thrown the pitch for a strike 75.9 percent this season (60.7% MLB average). It has a 34.3 percent whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). The pitch has been swung at 69.9 percent of the time (48.1% MLB average), to no avail.

While the Pitch F/X data differs somewhat from the Baseball Info Solutions data in the chart above, we can see that Lincecum is going to a two-seam fastball a little over 16 percent of the time in 2010. Previously, Lincecum tossed a four-seamer with little horizontal movement but a good deal of “rising” action, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. That may help explain Lincecum’s career-high 50 percent ground ball rate this year.

Lincecum, sitting 91 MPH with a four-seamer and two-seamer and going to his change over a quarter of the time, is even harder to hit than his previous, higher-octane self. His contact rate, between 74 and 76% from 2006-2008, is just 70 percent this season (80-81% MLB average). That’s tied with rotation mate Jonathan Sanchez for the lowest mark in the majors. Lincecum’s swinging strike, which ranged from 10.3-11.8% from ’06 to ’08, sits at an obscene 14.4. Opposing hitters just can’t lay off his stuff: Lincecum has a major league-best 35.8 outside swing percentage in 2010. That blows away his 24-27% marks the previous three years, as well as the 27% big league average.

In 42.1 innings so far, Lincecum laps the field with a 1.98 expected FIP (xFIP). The closest competitor is Roy Halladay, at a still-ridiculous-but-distant 2.78. Lincecum is punching out 11.91 batters per nine innings (best among starters) and has issued just 1.7 BB/9. Aside from his cap (the only thing nastier than his than his changeup), Lincecum has changed just about everything since he debuted. And right now, he’s pitching at a different level than the competition.

Heading into 2010, Seattle Mariners starter Doug Fister was a relative unknown outside of (and perhaps even in) the Pacific Northwest. The 6-foot-8 beanpole did a decent job in his big league debut last season, posting a 4.50 xFIP with 5.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB in 61 innings. But Fister never cracked Baseball America’s list of Seattle’s top 30 prospects, and neither CHONE (4.86 FIP) nor ZiPS (5.08 FIP) expected much out of the 26 year-old this season.

Yet, following a start last night against the Texas Rangers in which he tossed eight shutout innings, Fister now holds a 1.29 ERA in 35 total frames. Fantasy owners haven’t joined the Fister fan club, however, as the 7th round pick in the 2006 draft is owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues and 6.3 percent of ESPN leagues. It appears that many players are justifiably skeptical of Fister’s fast start.

First, the good. Fister has issued just 1.29 BB/9, while locating 53.5 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48.2 percent in 2010). That has contributed to an above-average 60 percent rate of first pitch strikes (57.5% MLB average). The righty displayed sharp control throughout his minor league tenure as well, with 2.2 BB/9 overall and just 0.9 BB/9 at Triple-A Tacoma in 2009. A slight groundball pitcher in the minors (47.2 GB%, according to Minor League Splits), Fister has a 51.9 GB% so far this year.

The Bad? Fister isn’t fooling anyone. Utilizing an 88-89 MPH fastball over three-quarters of the time, he has punched out just 4.11 batters per nine innings. His 89.7 percent contact rate is well north of the 80.7 percent MLB average, and Fister’s 4.1 percent swinging strike rate is less than half of the 8.3 percent big league average.

And, as you probably guessed by that ERA, he’s been incredibly lucky. Fister has a .218 BABIP, without surrendering a home run. His rate of stranding runners on base (82.8 percent) will also regress in the months to come. Overall, Fister’s expected FIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.97.

Fister does boast very good control, and he’s backed by strong defenders: after leading the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009, the Mariners rank 5th in 2010. But even so, Fister looks more like a league average starting pitcher than some breakout star. ZiPS projects 4.81 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and a 4.62 FIP for the rest of the season.

I would say don’t get fooled by the shiny ERA. But, judging from those ownership rates, most fantasy players already know better.

Here’s the latest on some young pitchers serving as injury replacements around the league…

Trevor Cahill & Vin Mazzaro | Athletics

I mentioned Brett Anderson’s elbow issue last week, but it turned out to be a little worse than expected; he’s going to miss as much as the next six weeks with a forearm injury. If that wasn’t bad enough, the A’s lost Justin Duchscherer on Thursday when he left his start with pain in his twice-surgically repaired hip. They’ve been replaced in the rotation by Cahill and (unofficially) Mazzaro, both of whom saw plenty of time with the big league team last year.

Cahill threw 178.2 IP of 4.92 xFIP ball with just a 4.53 K/9 last year, when he jumped from Double-A to the show. Mazzaro approximately replicated that performance (5.10 xFIP, 5.81 K/9) in a much smaller sample (91.1 IP), though he had some Triple-A time under his belt. Both have some nice long-term potential, but neither offers much in the world of fantasy baseball at the moment. Oakland’s schedule is a little tough over the next few weeks (Rangers twice, Rays, Angels), so don’t run out to grab either. Avoid the temptations of future potential, they’re non-rosterable at this point.

Jhoulys Chacin & Esmil Rogers | Rockies

With Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel landing on the disabled list, the Rockies turned to two of the best young arms their farm system has to offer. Chacin, who posted a 4.97 xFIP in limited action last year, one hit the Giants over seven innings yesterday while Rogers allowed five runs through four the night before. The former features a four-pitch mix and a knockout changeup that helps him neutralizes batters of the opposite hand while the latter struggles with his offspeed offerings at times and might end up in the bullpen long-term.

Colorado’s upcoming schedule includes dates at the Padres and at the Dodgers, so if nothing else they’re looking at a favorable matchup the next turn through the rotation. I’d definitely go Chacin over Rogers though, he’s got a slightly better track record of missing bats and generating ground balls at the higher levels. He’s owned in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues, so he should be there for the taking.

John Ely | Dodgers

Acquired in the Juan Pierre deal (how’s that one working out?), Ely took the spot of the injured Vicente Padilla, and appears to have a firm grasp on it for the foreseeable future. In his relatively short minor league career (2007 draftee), he’s exhibited solid control of the strike zone (7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and an ability to generate plenty of grounders (50.1% GB). Ely’s not a big stuff guy, but those skills generally portend good things. His next start will be against the Brewers on Thursday, then after that you’re looking at dates with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

In a standard 12-team league, there’s no reason to pay any attention to Ely. If you’re in a particularly deep league and are in a position to sacrifice some ERA and WHIP in exchange for a win near the end of the week, you could take a worse gamble.

Quick Notes

Javier Vazquez has been absolutely dreadful for the Yankees (9.78 ERA, 5.57 xFIP), but don’t expect him to lose his rotation spot anytime soon. Chances are he’ll have his next start skipped since it lands on an off day, and you should definitely keep him glued to the bench until he strings two or three good starts together. The potential for strikeouts and wins (hat tip: Yankee offense) is still there. Rick Porcello hasn’t been Vazquez bad, but he’s been pretty awful as well (8.03 ERA, 4.25 xFIP). Despite rumors of a minor league “get yourself straight” assignment, the Tigers are going to stick with him and hope he rights the ship. If you’re a savvy negotiator, now’s a great time to swoop in and try to buy low on Javy and/or Porcello, especially if the former is owned by a frustrated Yankee fan.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Five.

Brett Cecil – After getting the Rays and the Red Sox in his first two starts this year, Cecil gets a break from AL East opponents this week with road starts in Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with a combined 18-25 record. Cecil has allowed 2 HR in 12.2 IP but the Indians are 13th in the American League in HR. He will face a harder time on that score against the White Sox, but outside of HR, the Chicago offense has been terrible this year. Southpaws have limited the White Sox to a .216/.219/.381 line this season. Cecil is on the waiver wire in most leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two-start week.

Kevin Correia – After losing his first start of the year, Correia has run off four straight wins. But that has had as much to do with the level of offensive support he has received as it has had to do with his pitching. In his last two starts, Correia has 10.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB and 11 H allowed and 2 W. With matchups this week against Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Oswalt, do not expect the Padres offense to supply him with a ton of runs. Put Correia on the bench this week.

Gavin Floyd – It has been a rough start to 2010 for Floyd, who finally broke into the win column in his last outing. The key was that he did not allow a single walk in 7 IP. Even after that outing, Floyd has a 4.10 BB/9. In the three previous years, Floyd’s highest BB/9 was 3.05. And even with the elevated walk rate, Floyd’s xFIP is 2.42 runs lower than his ERA. With home starts against two sub-.500 teams in the Royals and Blue Jays, Floyd is set up for a good week if he can continue to throw strikes.

Jaime Garcia – As Dave Cameron alluded to yesterday, Garcia has a pretty nice GB rate. Maybe the Cardinals can start removing Skip Schumaker and perhaps even David Freese when he takes the mound. But aside from that, right now Garcia is really outperforming his peripherals. His xFIP is 2.65 runs higher than his ERA. Garcia has yet to allow a run at home this season, but this week he has two road starts, including one against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Give Garcia a week off if you have a safe alternative.

Max Scherzer – In three of his first four starts this season, Scherzer threw a Quality Start. In his other outing he missed because he only went five innings. In his last start, he got lit up by the Twins. But Scherzer gets a rematch versus Minnesota this week. My opinion is that whenever a pitcher faces a team in back-to-back outings, he usually has the opposite result in the second start. In his other game this week, he faces the weak-hitting Indians, a nice tonic for a pitcher who has allowed a HR in his last four starts. Ignore Scherzer’s poor outing his last time out and keep him active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Five are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Jimenez, Kershaw, Oswalt, Dempster, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Baker, E. Santana, Peavy, Pavano, Harden, Matusz, Braden, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Leake, Kennedy, Sanders, Talbot, A. Sanchez, Blanton, O. Perez, Vargas, Maholm, Kawkami, Guthrie, Meche, Wellemeyer, Narveson, Paulino, Mulvey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Three pitchers and how they fared.

Bailey – Recommended to sit. 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.677 WHIP
Morrow – Recommended to sit. W, 16 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Myers – Recommended to start. W, 8 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP
Pelfrey – Recommended to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP
Slowey – Recommended to start – W, 11 Ks, 3.375 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

There’s a few big name starting pitchers returning from the disabled list this week, so let’s look at how their arrival could impact your fantasy team…

Cliff Lee (expected back Friday)

The Mariners aren’t quite sure (or have just declined to announce) who they’re going to lift from the rotation for Lee, but the signs point to Ryan Rowland-Smith. Both Jason Vargas (3.39 FIP) and Doug Fister (2.71) have pitched well enough to keep their jobs, and it’s already been announced that Ian Snell will keep his spot, but just be pushed back a few days in lieu of Lee.

Through just about four complete turns through the rotation, RRS has been the weak spot, posting a 7.47 FIP thanks to a completely unacceptable 0.50 K/BB. He’s run into a little bad homerun luck (15.0% HR/FB), but the scary part is that his BABIP sits at just .198. Once that starts to correct itself, the Aussie-born lefty could see his ERA (4.63) and WHIP (1.33) get even uglier. The fact that the Mariners don’t have a southpaw in the bullpen adds a little more fuel to the fire, especially since RRS has historically been better against same-side batters during his career. He’s still owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues, which at this point is far too many. Lee, obviously, is a must start all season.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (expected back Sunday)

One of the biggest enigmas in the league, Dice-K went from fantasy stud in 2008 to hurt and ineffective in 2009, and now we have no idea what to expect when he returns from back and neck issues. CHONE projects a 4.30 ERA with his usually high WHIP (1.41) and a slight drop in strikeouts (7.89 K/9), a projection that lumps him in with guys like Jorge de la Rosa, Jonathan Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson. Solid No. 3 or 4 fantasy options, but hardly staff anchors.

However, those three are owned in 81-84% of Yahoo! leagues, while Dice-K is owned in just 46%. The risk of injury and/or total meltdown may be higher, but so is the reward considering the strong defense behind him (yes, I know the Boston’s run prevention attack hasn’t done the job so far, but they will soon enough). With starts coming up against the helpless Orioles (.303 wOBA) and somewhat offensively challenged Angels (.322), jumping on him a little earlier than most could pay dividends. He’ll frustrate the hell out of you, but then again so will most fantasy starters.

Other Notes

Brett Anderson scared fantasy owners and A’s fans alike when he exited his last start with a stiff left elbow, and the team is justifiably taking it slow with him. He may not make his next start, which would put Chad Gaudin or Tyson Ross in the rotation for a turn. Neither has fantasy value. Vicente Padilla was placed on the disabled list, but his replacement has yet to be named. Regardless, none of the possibilities to replace him are viable fantasy options. Jeff Suppan has been replaced by Chris Narveson in Milwaukee’s starting five, but he’s not rosterable in any league. The same could be said for Luis Atilano, who took over for the injured Jason Marquis.

The Blue Jays recalled Brett Cecil earlier this week to replace the injured Brian Tallet, and he went on to strike out eight Rays over 6.2 innings in his first start. The former University of Maryland closer mixes his curveball, slider, and changeup in heavily with his low-90’s fastball, and he’s posted very strong minor league batted ball rates (42.9% GB, 22.9% LD, 28.6% FB). His next start is against the Red Sox at home, but after that he’s looking at outings against the offensively inept Indians (.290 wOBA) and White Sox (.311). If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, he’s a fine option if you look ahead to early next week.