Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the latest update to Week Four 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Jamie Moyer
LAD – Josh Towers
DET – Justin Verlander

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

PIT – Daniel McCutchen
LAD – Vicente Padilla
SEA – Ian Snell

In each of his three starts this year, Moyer has gone six innings. In his first two outings, he gave up five runs but in his last outing he allowed just two unearned runs. Moyer his being his usual stingy self with walks and his strikeout rate is up slightly from a year ago. He has been a bit unlucky with home runs allowed, which along with a 60.6 LOB%, helps explain how his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA. Moyer is a recommended option in only the deepest of mixed leagues. But his chance to pick up wins makes him a useful NL-only pitcher.

Last December, the Dodgers signed Towers to a minor league deal. After three starts in Triple-A Albuquerque, where he went 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA, the Dodgers are expected to promote him to replace Padilla, who went on the 15-day DL with a sore elbow. There is no guarantee that Towers will get two starts next week, as Los Angeles could shuffle its rotation and have Charlie Haeger move up and get two starts, instead.

Because Verlander finished last year with 19 Wins and a 3.45 ERA, it is easy to forget that he got off to a slow start in 2009. But he started last year 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA after three starts. This year he is 1-1 with a 6.95 ERA after four games. His velocity is just as good as it was a season ago, but batters are making more contact this year. Verlander is allowing more fly balls and more of those balls are leaving the park. But Verlander has been hurt by a 55.6 LOB%. On the whole, Verlander is still a must-start fantasy pitcher.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

Once a pitcher holds the Yankees offense to two runs in six innings, fantasy owners sit up and take notice. In their defense, the 39% of Yahoo fantasy owners that still don’t own Dallas Braden have an excuse. For most of his career, Braden has had a strikeout rate closer to five than to the ML average (usually in the high sixes). That poor strikeout rate hasn’t been mitigated by a nice groundball rate either – Braden only burns worms at a 37.6% rate over his career. In fact, it’s hard to tell exactly what he’s done right, except a better-than-average walk rate (2.87 career) and a good changeup (+12.9 runs career).

Well, something’s changed, hasn’t it? Change is the key word here because Braden’s success this year has come from eschewing his fastball (-17.9 runs career) in favor of that changeup. So far this year, he’s throwing the changepiece 32% of the time (compared to 21.4% and 20.1% over the past two years). Just judging by the linear weights, that’s been a good idea, but there’s more to it. His changeup is getting a 22.1% whiff rate this year (anything around 20% is generally thought of as elite – for comparison’s sake, Johan Santana’s changeup had a 17.4% whiff rate last year). Braden’s fastball? A 7% whiff rate. What’s even better is that the fastball only got a 4.4% whiff rate last year – so using his changeup more has made his fastball even better.

Finally, we get to today’s start against the Yankees. Braden threw 81 pitches, and 21 were changeups, for a slightly-below average 26% for him. Even today’s number was above last year’s level, and it’s important to note that these numbers came from a crude Gameday tally, which may have classified some pitches a little differently. In any case, Braden is still going to the changeup more often, even though the 21 changeups today garnered only one whiff. A quick (sanity) check of last year’s whiff totals on the pitch shows that he got 13.7% whiff rates on the pitch last year in a larger sample size. It is reasonable to assume that using the changeup, and its better whiff rates, more often than his fastball is a good choice for Braden and that it will lead to better results.

It seems that Alex Rodriguez ran across the mound while heading back to first after a foul ball in today’s game. Some pitchers – like Braden – take offense to a player touching his mound. The event was timed to coincide with some discussion about Billy Beane saying that Braden had moxie. Well, Braden showed his moxie by barking at Rodriguez and showing him who was king of the hill, and then willing the Athletics to a victory despite two home runs and a triple play by the Yankees. Hopefully, he’ll combine that moxie with continued focus on his changeup. Fantasy owners will rejoice.

After four dreadful starts, Cubs’ manager Lou Piniella announced today that the team is moving Opening Day starter Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen to help out the struggling relief corps. Ted Lilly is returning from the disabled list to assume the vacated rotation spot, and the Chicago brass must feel this is the best way to improve the team’s 6.15 relief ERA. He’ll be available for the first time on Friday.

Zambrano posted a 7.45 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in his four starts (19.1 IP), but the peripherals aren’t awful. His strikeout rate (12.10 K/9) is through the roof, and even though that’s destined to regress, he should be able to top his 7.74 career K/9 while working in relief. His walk rate is a bit higher than usual at 4.66 BB/9, but he’s allowed an unfathomable amount of homeruns – more than one for every five balls hit in the air, nearly triple his 7.4% HR/FB from 2008-2009.

Closer Carlos Marmol has been ridiculously good in limited action, so don’t expect Zambrano to wrestle the job from him anytime soon. Very few setup men are worth carrying in a standard 5×5, 12-team mixed league, but if Big Z’s homerun rate returns to normal and he maintains a high strikeout rate, he’s definitely worth a roster spot as you wait for his inevitable return to the rotation. And believe me, it’ll happen at some point. Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny are holding down starting jobs, and Zambrano is making close to $18M this year. There’s no way this move is permanent.

For Zambrano owners, there’s nothing more you can do than grind your teeth and wait out this temporary setback. He’ll gain RP eligibility soon enough, so that added roster flexibility is a nice little fringe benefit. If you don’t own Zambrano, now’s a great time to go out and try to buy low on him in a trade. The potential for high quality production in the second half is well worth the risk.

We’ll do a tiered approach here. It’s what we do.

Ervin Santana | SP | Los Angeles (54% owned)
While the ownership numbers may be perplexing (he’s owned in all of my leagues), there’s reason for hope when it comes to the other Santana (soon to be the other other Santana). Most of the signs are looking good for Santana – his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and he’s even sporting a career-high ground ball rate. The only worrisome thing might be the reduced effectiveness of his slider as measured by his linear weights. It can’t be the half-MPH that he’s lost on the pitch, can it? In any case, he’s benefiting from a career-best 38.9% contact rate on pitches outside the zone, which doesn’t seem like it can continue when seen in the face of his career 58.4% rate. Perhaps people will start whiffing a little more on his pitches in the zone (98.8% !). It’s a strange mix right now, but since he’s healthy he should be on more rosters.

Casey Kotchman | 1B | Seattle (6% owned)
Paradoxically, it took a move to one of the toughest parks in the league for Kotchman to break out his career-best ISO (.310). Of course, that number only stabilizes around 450 plate appearances, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. Instead, let’s look at the numbers that stabilize the quickest: swing rates. Because they are based on pitch-by-pitch data, swing rates have a larger sample size in the early going. Kotchman is swinging at a career-low rate (35% this year, 45.4% career), and this has lead to the best K/BB ratio of his career (1.5). The strikeout percentage is below 10% and good for 25th-best in the league in the early going. That sort of ueber-patience seems to be serving him well. Don’t buy into the power, but the patience may end up leading to a good batting average and good run production, given the dearth of offense in Seattle.

Bud Norris | SP | Houston (5% owned)
(I know, the tiers are a little off.) Ever since Cistulli wrote this masterpiece about Norris’ nice outside-the-zone whiff rate, he has been an interesting character here in the green-and-eggshell. The secondary statistics for Norris are actually sort of frightening – he has an otherworldly strikeout rate (14.09 K/9), a disastrous walk rate (8.22 BB/9), and an insert-bad-adjective here groundball rate (23.8%). Group these rates with his zero HR/9 and you have an early-season special – an ERA (3.52) between his FIP (2.60) and his xFIP (4.03). That might be a strange feat – if it were to happen over a full season. I’d say some of those fly balls will begin to leave Minute Maid park shortly and that the xFIP is the number to follow, but that’s still a decent number that deserves attention. Maybe Norris will split the difference between his good start and bad start the next time he climbs the hill.

Ownership numbers courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

Cliff Lee felt no pain while throwing a 51-pitch simulated game on Friday, and the plan is for him to throw another simulated game this week before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. The goal is to have the Mariners’ co-ace back on a big league mound by May 1st or 2nd.

Brandon Webb, however, isn’t so lucky. The Diamondbacks transferred him to the 60-day DL over the weekend, meaning the earliest he could possibly come back is May 25th. Whether or not he’ll be ready to pitch on that date is another story all together.

Here’s a few notes on some other starting rotation situations from around the league…

Kris Benson: Going from even a less effective version of Webb to Benson is a significant hit, and that’s essentially what the D-Backs have done. Don’t be fooled by Benson’s six inning, two run outing against the Padres in Petco over the weekend, he has negative fantasy value. Once he faces a better lineup in a more hitter friendly park, the blush will be off the rose.

Scott Kazmir: The greatest pitcher in Tampa Bay franchise history returned to the mound last week, putting 11 men on base and allowing six runs to score against the so good it’s scary Yankee offense. He’s unlikely to turn back into the 3.40-ish FIP, 10+ K/9 fantasy stud he was from 2006-2007, but Kazmir definitely remains a fantasy asset. He misses enough bats to produce good strikeout numbers, and if he stays healthy he’s probably looking at ten or so starts against the A’s and Mariners, hardly offensive powerhouses. With normal regression of last year’s 67.5% strand rate, his ERA should drop to the low-to-mid fours. He’s still available in 39% of Yahoo! leagues.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K’s rehab stint has gone well so far, as he’s allowed just six baserunners (five hits, one walk) in 11 innings. The strikeouts are down (just five), but right now we don’t have any reason to suspect he’ll drop off from his established 8.53 K/9 rate in the bigs. The important thing is that he appears to be healthy. He still has another minor league start to go, but the Red Sox haven’t announced their plans for the rotation yet. The prevailing thought is that they’ll use a six-man rotation for at least one turn before giving Clay Buchholz or (more likely) Tim Wakefield the boot to the bullpen.

Daniel McCutchen: The Pirates put Ross Ohlendorf on the disabled list over the weekend with back spasms, and replaced him in the rotation with McCutchen, who was on their Opening Day roster. He’s been dreadful in two starts (12 runs, 16 baserunners, just three strikeouts in 7.1 IP), but he has a dynamite minor league track record so a return to some semblance of normalcy is expected. There’s no need to run out and grab him now, but keep an eye on his progression. There’s a chance for a low-four ERA with decent WHIP and strikeout numbers here.

Well, this never happens!

There are no adjustments to the two-start pitchers from Friday. Since this edition usually talks about the new additions from Friday, instead this week let’s focus on the two-start pitchers at the bottom of the barrel, the ones started by the fewest amount of fantasy owners, to see if there is a diamond in the rough.

5. Brad Bergesen (started in 4% of CBS Sports leagues) – Last year in 19 starts in the majors, Bergesen had a 1.55 GB/FB ratio and a nifty 2.34 BB/9, which led to a 3.43 ERA. But Bergesen had a 75.2 LOB% and an 8.3 HR/FB rate, which led to both a higher FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.42). In his two starts in 2010, he has a 0.47 GB/FB ratio and a 3.52 BB/9. Combined with a 15.8 HR/FB mark, Bergesen’s ERA is an ugly 11.74 in 7.2 IP. It is understandable that owners are reluctant to activate him for two starts this week. But if Bergesen can recapture his ground ball rate, he is worthy of a roster spot.

4. Kyle Kendrick (2%) – A member of the Phillies’ rotation, if Kendrick can give the team innings, he has an excellent chance of picking up wins. But his K rate is poor, his WHIP is nothing special and his ERA is trending upward. The only thing Kendrick has going for him is the chance for wins. And how long will he be in the rotation, especially once Joe Blanton returns from the disabled list?

3. Scott Olsen (1%) – In both 2007 and 2008, Olsen had identical 4.95 xFIPs in seasons where he made 33 starts each. Last year, Osen was limited to 11 games, but he had a 4.91 xFIP. It seems pretty apparent where Olsen’s true talent level is. Olsen has some upside in Ks but he is not a mixed league option except in deep leagues.

2. Charlie Morton (1%) – Coming into the year, some viewed Morton as a potential deep sleeper candidate. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Morton has a 12-4 record with a 2.15 ERA. He allowed 44 BB , picked up 134 Ks and allowed just 3 HR in 150.2 IP. But Morton has been pounded in two starts this season. The big problem has been the gopher ball, as he allowed 4 HR in 9.1 IP, and a .429 BABIP is not helping, either. While his ERA is 13.50, his xFIP is 3.34. Morton has a 9.00 K/BB ratio and despite two ugly starts, he is an intriguing option with upside.

1. Craig Stammen (0%) – Okay, I admit I am intrigued by a pitcher who absolutely no one wants in their starting lineup. But unlike Morton, there is little to recommend Stammen. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A, he has a 5-7 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.3 K/9. On the plus side, Stammen has done a nice job of getting ground balls in his brief major league career. He has a 1.54 GB/FB ratio in 112 IP, continuing his trend from the minors (54.3 GB%) of keeping the ball down. It is not that Stammen has no chance, but a guy with a 3.94 K/9 ratio has zero room for error.

The Indians pitching staff has made quite a bit of noise in the last few days, as David Huff and Mitch Talbot became the pitchers to throw consecutive complete games for the club since Chad Ogea and Charles Nagy did it way back in September of 1996. Sure enough, the day after Huff’s two run, two hour gem someone had grabbed him out of the free agent pool in my league, but is he worth a roster spot? What about Talbot?

The 25-year-old Huff was the 39th overall pick in the 2006 draft out of UCLA, and he proceeded to burn right through the minors, posting FIP’s near 3.00 in 2007 and 2008. He split last season between Triple-A and the big leagues, putting up a 5.61 ERA (4.69 FIP) with a weak 4.56 K/9 in 23 starts for the Tribe. After demonstrating the ability to limit free passes in the minors, that skill has translated to the majors (for the time being).

In a standard 12-team league, Huff’s not worth a second thought. But if you’re in an AL-only or particularly deep mixed league, just keep an eye out on him in case his strikeout rate starts to climb. He’s not going to be a guy that will anchor a fantasy pitching staff, but he could be a little bit better than your typical 6th or 7th fantasy starter. He’s owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues.

Talbot, on the other hand, hasn’t demonstrated the ability to contribute to a fantasy club in any way. He has more walks than strikeouts in his two starts, but even in Triple-A his K/9 is an underwhelming 7.3. CHONE projects a 5.25 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP this season, which is about what you should expect. Talbot is what he is, and that’s the 5th starter on a team not quite ready to contend. His complete game last night was a fine effort, but he’s not worth carrying on any fantasy team.

* * *

Quick Note: The Padres are starting lefty Wade LeBlanc at home against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Chris Young tomorrow. If your team is like mine and you’re way behind in ERA and WHIP this week, LeBlanc is a nice little pickup to try and maximize your strikeouts. He struck out 15 in 10 Triple-A innings earlier this year, and the D-Backs can swing and miss with the best of ’em.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Three.

Homer Bailey – Long touted as one of the top young pitchers in baseball, Bailey is having the same struggles early in 2010 as he has had throughout his career in the majors – too many walks and trouble with gopher balls. Bailey has a 5.23 BB/9 and has allowed 2 HR in 10.1 IP this year. Bailey has two starts this week at home, where he has allowed 16 of his 25 homers. While neither the Dodgers nor Padres are big HR teams, Bailey at home for two starts is still a good recipe for disaster. Making things even worse is the slow start offensively for the Reds, who are 15th in the NL with an average of 4.30 runs per game.

Brandon Morrow – The good news for Morrow is that his xFIP is half of his ERA. The bad news is that his ERA is 12.00 after two starts. Control has always been an issue for Morrow and he has allowed 6 BB in 9 IP this year. Adding to his problems are that his velocity is down, which may be contributing to the troubles this year with his changeup. His change is already 2.5 runs below average. Morrow is trying to compensate by throwing more curves, but that pitch sits at 1.8 runs below average. Even with a home start against the Royals, put Morrow on the bench until he shows something better than he has so far this season.

Brett Myers – To the dismay of my Razzball team, Myers has been decent so far this season, including a tough loss to the Cardinals in his last outing in which he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. His fastball velocity still sits below 90, but Myers has cut way back on the number of times he has thrown his heater, down to throwing just 40.5 percent fastballs. Instead, he is now an off-speed pitcher, throwing his curve nearly 32 percent of the time and his slider over 24 percent. The result has been more swings out of the strike zone and more ground balls, two positive changes. Try riding Myers in his home starts this week against the Marlins and Pirates. With the Astros finally winning a game, anything is possible now!

Mike Pelfrey – Before the season started, I thought Pelfrey and his one-pitch repertoire was destined for the bullpen. Instead, he has been the best pitcher for the Mets the first two weeks of the season, with a 2-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. In his last outing against the Rockies, in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball in Colorado, Pelfrey threw five pitches. He threw 13 sliders, 10 curves and 7 changeups according to PitchFX. And 65 percent of his pitches were strikes, including 21 of his 30 off-speed pitches. He gets home starts this week against the Cubs and Braves. It feels like bizarro world recommending both Myers and Pelfrey.

Kevin Slowey – Uncharacteristically, Slowey has had trouble with walks so far this season. After three straight seasons of BB/9 rates under 1.50, Slowey has a 5.23 mark so far this season. But he faces two teams that are below average in the American League in drawing walks, including the 13th-place Royals. Slowey is also a notorious fly ball pitcher, his 0.69 GB/FB mark is the 12th lowest in baseball, and the concern is that he will get roughed up with some home runs. But the Indians are tied for 12th in fewest homers hit. The matchups look good, so make sure Slowey is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Lackey, Hanson, Cain, de la Rosa, Billingsley, Zambrano, Price, Vazquez, Porcello, Penny, Kazmir, Wells, Niemann, Masterson, Pineiro, G. Gonzalez, Cook, Lewis, Volstad, Wakefield, Richard, Willis, Bush, Niese, Bannister, Bergesen, Kendrick, Fister, Olsen, Morton, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

The season is just a week old, so most starters haven’t gotten a chance to pitch their way out of a job or get hurt yet. Let’s check in on the status of some rotation spots around the league.

Jeff Niemann. The 6-foot-9 Rays’ hurler took a line drive off his pitching shoulder last week, but is on track to make his next start on Tuesday at the Orioles. Baltimore has a .308 wOBA as a team through their first six games, but that’s probably not going to last. I’d keep Niemann on the bench until we’re sure the shoulder isn’t an issue.

Gil Meche. The Royals’ highest paid player returned from some spring shoulder issues to predictably get his brains beat in by the Red Sox on Sunday. Gilgameche hasn’t been an effective pitcher since last June and is owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, so he’s not worth your time. Resist the temptation of his 2007-2008 success.

Chris Young. San Diego’s highest paid player was placed on the DL with shoulder tightness yesterday after having surgery on the joint last year. The team has yet to announce his replacement, but the early favorite is fellow shoulder injury All Star Tim Stauffer, who had a good spring and has been strong in two long relief outings (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K). The 27-year-old is owned in exactly 0% of Yahoo! leagues, but if you’re in an NL-only or deep mixed league, the Petco factor might make him worth a pick up

The Nationals have swapped Garrett Mock for Livan Hernandez, but that move shouldn’t have any fantasy impact for any league anywhere. Maybe Livan is worth a shot if your league counts bulk innings and bats not missed, but otherwise don’t bother.

One starter yet to make an appearance this year is Phil Hughes of the Yankees, but he’s scheduled to get to call on Thursday to start at home against against the Angels. You’ll probably want to sit him and his 43.2% career FB% in that game, but his next start would come in Oakland, which is always a favorable matchup from a stadium and a quality of lineup faced perspective. Hughes is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues, and if he’s still available in yours, gobble him up. That goes double if you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league. The Yankees are going to score a ton of runs for the 23-year-old, and their bullpen is good enough to preserve a lead for four innings. Just make sure you pick your spots with him until he gets in a groove.