Fister’s Fast Start
Heading into 2010, Seattle Mariners starter Doug Fister was a relative unknown outside of (and perhaps even in) the Pacific Northwest. The 6-foot-8 beanpole did a decent job in his big league debut last season, posting a 4.50 xFIP with 5.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB in 61 innings. But Fister never cracked Baseball America’s list of Seattle’s top 30 prospects, and neither CHONE (4.86 FIP) nor ZiPS (5.08 FIP) expected much out of the 26 year-old this season.
Yet, following a start last night against the Texas Rangers in which he tossed eight shutout innings, Fister now holds a 1.29 ERA in 35 total frames. Fantasy owners haven’t joined the Fister fan club, however, as the 7th round pick in the 2006 draft is owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues and 6.3 percent of ESPN leagues. It appears that many players are justifiably skeptical of Fister’s fast start.
First, the good. Fister has issued just 1.29 BB/9, while locating 53.5 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48.2 percent in 2010). That has contributed to an above-average 60 percent rate of first pitch strikes (57.5% MLB average). The righty displayed sharp control throughout his minor league tenure as well, with 2.2 BB/9 overall and just 0.9 BB/9 at Triple-A Tacoma in 2009. A slight groundball pitcher in the minors (47.2 GB%, according to Minor League Splits), Fister has a 51.9 GB% so far this year.
The Bad? Fister isn’t fooling anyone. Utilizing an 88-89 MPH fastball over three-quarters of the time, he has punched out just 4.11 batters per nine innings. His 89.7 percent contact rate is well north of the 80.7 percent MLB average, and Fister’s 4.1 percent swinging strike rate is less than half of the 8.3 percent big league average.
And, as you probably guessed by that ERA, he’s been incredibly lucky. Fister has a .218 BABIP, without surrendering a home run. His rate of stranding runners on base (82.8 percent) will also regress in the months to come. Overall, Fister’s expected FIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.97.
Fister does boast very good control, and he’s backed by strong defenders: after leading the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009, the Mariners rank 5th in 2010. But even so, Fister looks more like a league average starting pitcher than some breakout star. ZiPS projects 4.81 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and a 4.62 FIP for the rest of the season.
I would say don’t get fooled by the shiny ERA. But, judging from those ownership rates, most fantasy players already know better.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
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you are completely ignoring something– the relevance of his height. Compare him to Chris Young (the pitcher). Using his long frame, he creates deceptive movement, and the ball appears to be coming faster than 89 mph because he is releasing much closer to the plate. The result is a lot of weak contact. Chris Young was able to sustain low BABIPs for years (.264 for his career, over 737 innings).
and chris yong is a worse than league average pitcher that has benefited tremendously from pitching in the most pitcher friendly park in mlb. so cool story bro?
I’m talking about Chris Young from 2006-8. That’s worse than average? The Seattle park is just as pitcher friendly as San Diego.
Feel free to not pick him up if you don’t want, your league-mates will thank you.
i’m talking about chris young, the pitcher with absurd flyball rates who pitches in petco, the park with the huge outfield that throttles hr/fb.
and lol, no, no park is as pitcher friendly as petco.
llama,
Young’s low BABIP can be at least partially attributed to two factors: he’s perhaps the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the majors (fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders), and he induces a very high number of infield flies, which are near automatic outs. Neither of those factors come into play with Fister. Aside from the NBA height, I don’t think they’re comparable.
I wonder if owners are unduly skeptical. As you note, his expected ERA is 3.97 thus far. That’s roster worthy in almost all leagues.
Yes, he’s not a top tier pitcher. That’s obvious.
But he should be owned in more leagues.
For anyone who hasn’t watched Fister in 2010, he does throw a high % of strikes but he’s not pumping 89-mph fastballs down the middle of the plate, hoping to get lucky. Fister is just ridiculously locked-in right now, enjoying total command over a fastball that he already commands well. It won’t last forever, but it has been fun watching him stipple the corners of the plate without having to nibble or drop a fastball in the gravy zone when he falls behind in the count.
Fister is Jamie Moyer in Randy Johnson’s body. It’s just bizarre, and all the more so that he’s pitching for the M’s. But like Moyer even in his prime he’s going to have a start where his control is just a little less than pin-point and all those needles he’s been threading will stitch him to the dinger’s bloody flag. When that happens many of the fantasy players who have lately been drawn like moths to the flame of the low ERA will think their wings burned off, rather than predictably singed.
You just made my night, discussing fantasy baseball with such poetry. You may be the one fantasy player who can actually pick up interesting women.
Probably not.
Actually all the women I’ve ever picked up were interesting. But then, I don’t play fantasy baseball.
Thanks for the compliment, though (where are my manners?)
Ride the hot streak. Great ballpark, great defense (that just got better with Michael Saunders called up), throws strikes…