Archive for Starting Pitchers

Not that long ago, Ricky Romero was known to Blue Jays fans as the answer to the following trivia question: “who did Toronto take with the sixth pick in the 2005 draft instead of Troy Tulowitzki?”

While Tulo established himself as a top prospect at a premium position, Romero posted so-so-numbers on the farm. The Cal State Fullerton lefty struck out seven batters per nine innings, while walking 3.8 per nine and posting a 48.6 percent ground ball rate. Prior to 2009: Baseball America gave Romero the following assessment:

Late bloomer or bust? That’s the question surrounding Romero, whom the Blue Jays selected sixth overall in 2005 and signed for a club-record $2.4 million. He has spent the bulk of the past three seasons in Double-A and been passed by several lefties in the system…Romero still needs to show more consistency to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

While there are clearly worse scenarios than ending up with a first-rounder who’s a mid-to-back-end starter, the Jays likely had higher aspirations. Since that scouting report was published, however, Romero has taken his game to a different level.

In 2009, Romero turned in a quality rookie season. Tossing 178 innings, he posted rates of 7.13 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 and had a 54 percent ground ball rate. His expected FIP (xFIP) was 4.09. This year? He’s pitching like a bona fide ace. In 56.1 frames, the 25-year-old has 9.43 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, a 55.9 GB% and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks 7th among starters with at least 30 IP.

During his rookie year, 48.4 percent of Romero’s pitches were within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48-49 percent) and he garnered swings on pitches off the plate 24 percent (25-27% MLB average). In 2010, Romero has tried to bait hitters into expanding their zones, and it’s working. Placing just 44 percent of his offerings over the plate, he has induced outside swings 31.2 percent.

Romero’s contact and swinging strike rates were above average last year, but he’s in elite territory so far in 2010. Opponents put the bat on the ball 77.9 percent in ’09, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. That contact rate is down to 72.7 percent this season, and only Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow and Clayton Kershaw have been more adept at avoiding lumber. Romero’s swinging strike rate, 9.6 percent during his first foray in the majors, is 11.9 percent in 2010 (8-9% MLB average).

One of the keys to his success is a fantastic changeup. On May 15, Romero whiffed 12 Rangers batters on his way to a complete game shutout. From this AP article, here’s Texas 3B Michael Young describing Romero’s off-speed pitch:

It has kind of a split action to it. It’s not a straight change, it kind of has a little dive down in the zone. It’s a good pitch, it’s a plus pitch for him and you could tell he really had a lot of confidence in it.

Young’s observations look spot-on. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool at texasleaguers.com, Romero has gone to his 84-85 MPH change nearly one-third of the time. The bottom falls out of that pitch, and it moves more like a splitter. The average changeup has 6.1 inches of vertical movement, meaning it drops 6.1 inches less than a pitch thrown without spin. By contrast, Romero’s change has -0.3 inches of vertical movement–it falls 0.3 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Batters are swinging at that changeup 53.6 percent (48.3 MLB average), and are whiffing 20.7 percent (12.1 MLB average). That’s, as Young said, a plus pitch.

In 234.1 major league innings, Romero has a 3.86 xFIP. He misses bats, has decent control and induces ground balls by the bushel. Yet, he is still available in nearly one-fifth of Yahoo leagues (81 percent ownership rate). Romero likely won’t keep up this pace all season, but he has the skill set to remain a well above-average starter. Snatch this guy up if he’s still on the waiver wire.

Starting pitcher notes from around the MLBiverse…

Jeff Francis | Rockies

For the first time over than 20 months, Francis took to a big league mound yesterday, limiting the Nationals to just one run over seven innings at home. Finesse lefties aren’t prime fantasy pieces, and at his best Francis was a low-4.00’s ERA guy with mediocre WHIP’s and strikeout numbers. Coming back from major shoulder surgery makes him an even riskier proposition. Regardless, he’s is owned in just 5% of Yahoo! leagues, and has some value as a 5th or 6th starter in an NL-only or deep mixed league. If you’re willing to roll the dice, just make sure you watch the matchups until he proves effective.

Javier Vazquez | Yankees

Even though he pitched well against the Tigers last week (two runs and seven strikeouts in seven innings), the Yanks are again skipping Vazquez’s turn through the rotation. Part of that has to do with keeping him away from the Red Sox, but it also has to do with creating better matchups for the rest of the starting staff. Barring weather and/or injury, Vazquez’s next five starts will come against the Mets, Indians, Orioles, Orioles again, and the Astros. That’s a nice little stretch.

ZiPS rest of the season projection calls for a 3.89 ERA with close to a strikeout per inning, but even if you’re pessimistic, an ERA in the low-4.00’s is within reach from here on out. Vazquez is still owned in 74% of Yahoo! leagues, but you’ve still got a chance to go out and try to buy low in a trade.

Tyson Ross | Athletics

Justin Duchscherer’s return from the disabled list has been derailed, possibly costing him the rest of the season, so long man Tyson Ross could get an opportunity to stay in the rotation. His spot start against the Angels over the weekend wasn’t pretty (three runs in 3.2 IP), but he gets a mulligan because his 62 pitches were a season high (by 12) and he’s still just getting back into starting shape. His minor league career features a good number of strikeouts (7.5 K/9) and an absurd ground ball rate (57.5% according to minorleaguesplits.com), and those skills have approximately translated in his tiny big league sampling (22.2 IP, 6.75 K/9, 55.4 GB%). A low-4.00’s ERA is possible the rest of the way with a little help of Oakland’s park.

If Ross is bumped back into the bullpen, Vin Mazzaro is the obvious candidate to assume the vacated rotation spot. Both are available in basically every league.

The Mets

We’re going to have to give the Mets their own section here. A day after announcing that Oliver Perez had been demoted to the bullpen, Jonathon Niese left his start with a hamstring injury. Long reliever Hisanori Takahashi was a candidate to take Perez’s rotation spot, but he had to come in relief of Niese, so he’s no longer an option. They have R.A. Dickey pitching well in Triple-A (~3.00 FIP) and he lines up perfectly to take Ollie’s place on Wednesday, and then Takahashi comes back into play for Niese’s Friday start. Either way, I just wasted about 100 words to tell you that the Mets’ rotation is a mess and other than Johan Santana and maybe Mike Pelfrey, none of them are rosterable.

Just Because…

Zach already touched on Max Scherzer’s demotion, and for now he’ll be replaced by Armando Galarraga. His flukiness has been well documented, so don’t fall into the trap of thinking he can repeat his flashy 2008 ERA. The best way he can help your fantasy team is if someone else takes the bait.

Here is the latest update to Week Seven 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – CC Sabathia
DET – Justin Verlander
ARI – Billy Buckner

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Javier Vazquez
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
DET – Jeremy Bonderman
MIL – David Bush
WAS – John Lannan
ARI – Cesar Valdez

Sabathia is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed 9 H and 6 ER in 6 IP versus the Tigers last time out. Overall, the strikeouts are down and the homers are up for the big lefty. Sabathia’s 6.41 K/9 is his lowest since 2002 while his 14.3 HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. And the home runs are not due to his home park, as Sabathia has made four of his six starts and allowed six of his 7 HR on the road. His SwStr%, which was 13.9 in 2008, sits at 9.2 here in 2010.

After allowing 10 ER in his first 10 IP this year, Verlander is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts. In that frame he has 16 BB and 37 Ks in 38.2 IP and has allowed just1 HR. The past three years, Verlander has seen his GB/FB ratio deteriorate, as he has allowed more and more fly balls. But this year the trend has stopped, as his 1.14 GB/FB mark is his best since 2006. Verlander still averages in the mid 90s with his fastball, but he is throwing more off-speed stuff this year. His slider, change and curve have all been more effective pitches so far in 2010 than they were a year ago, when Verlander won 19 games.

Buckner gets the call from Triple-A, where he was 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA at Reno. Surprisingly, Buckner had a 5.6 K/9 after having an 8.4 mark with the same team a season ago. Buckner has 125.1 IP in the majors and has had trouble with the gopher ball. He has a 16.4 HR/FB rate in the majors. Buckner does do a good job of getting ground balls, with a 1.47 GB/FB mark in his time in the majors. He is not overpowering but has a full repertoire of pitches, including a curve, change and cutter.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo today, along with second baseman Scott Sizemore.

Scherzer, who was acquired from the D’Backs by the Tigers this offseason as part of the Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson deal, did not impress in his brief time in the AL. Scherzer struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings last year, but is down to a 5.57 K/9 through his eight starts in 2010.

He has seen a touch of bad luck, with a .327 BABIP agaisnt and 58% LOB%. However, Scherzer has had trouble with balls in play for his short MLB career, with a .323 BABIP against in over 268 innings.

While his ERA is 7.29, his xFIP is only 5.04. Our updated ZiPS projections have Scherzer finishing the year with a 5.16 ERA. MLB.com’s Jason Beck says that Scherzer has had problems with his mechanics, so hopefully he can work things out in the minors and return relatively shortly. If you have Scherzer in a keeper league, you might as well hold on to him during this stretch, otherwise it is safe to drop him.

As far as Sizemore goes, his demotion isn’t even the biggest news surrounding the Tigers 2B job. The team says that Carlos Guillen will be the everyday second baseman when he returns from the DL in the next week or two.

Guillen hasn’t played 2B since 1999 (when he was with the Mariners), but he did play 132 games at SS back in 2007, so he isn’t that far removed from the middle infield. In real life, UZR was not kind to Guillen at SS in ’07, or at 3B in ’08, so we’ll see how long Guillen can hold down the job at 2B. For fantasy owners, as long as he plays enough games to gain eligibility, it doesn’t matter how long he sticks. ZiPS has Guillen hitting .280 the rest of the season, and adding in 10 homers and 5 steals. Getting those numbers out of your second baseman is not the worst thing in the world.

Focusing on Sizemore, a .268 BABIP and 3.6% HR/FB rate hurt his value and he ended up with awRC+ of only 60. He should be able to return to AAA and hit very well once again, forcing the Tigers to consider bringing him back up later on in the season. But, if Guillen plays well at 2B, there may not be room from him.

Since he broke into the big leagues back in 1999, Tim Hudson has quietly ranked among the better starting pitchers in the majors. According to Sean Smith’s historical Wins Above Replacement numbers, Hudson racked up nearly 41 WAR from ’99 to 2009. With a couple more solid seasons, the former two-way Auburn star will rank among the top 100 pitchers in career WAR.

Hudson’s combination of quality (career 3.81 FIP) and quantity (he has topped the 200-inning mark six times during his career) was interrupted in 2008, as the undersized righty had Tommy John surgery in August of that year. Hudson returned to a major league mound in September of 2009, and the 34-year-old looked none the worse for wear.

In 42.1 innings, Hudson had 6.38 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 and a 3.47 expected FIP (xFIP), getting ground balls at the highest rate of his career to that point (62.2 percent). Again showcasing one of the deepest arsenals among starters, Hudson posted a 9.5 percent swinging strike rate (9.3 percent career average, 8-9% MLB average) and he didn’t dawdle, either: he placed 52.7 percent of his pitches in the strike zone (52.5% career average, 48-51% MLB average) and got first pitch strikes two-thirds of the time (57.8% career average, 58-59% MLB average). In other words, it was vintage Hudson.

Encouraged by Hudson’s work, the Braves signed him to a three-year, $28 million contract extension, with a $9 million club option for 2013. So far in 2010, Hudson has thrown 44.1 frames and has a spiffy 2.64 ERA. Despite that ERA, his season has been a mixed bag.

The difference between Hudson’s ERA and xFIP (4.57) is nearly two runs. He has benefitted from a .234 batting average on balls in play, and his 85.6 percent rate of stranding base runners is way above the 70-72% big league average and Hudson’s career 73.8% strand rate.

He’s doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a new career-high 66.2 GB% that tops all starters. However, Hudson isn’t missing bats or painting the corners like he usually does. His swinging strike rate is down to 5.7 percent, and his percentage of pitches within the zone is 44.9. Hudson is inducing first pitch contact or getting ahead in the count 0-1 just 50.6 percent of the time. Given those figures, it’s no surprise that he’s striking out just 3.45 batters per nine innings and walking 3.65 per nine.

The sample sizes aren’t huge, but Hudson’s main offerings aren’t hitting their spots or fooling batters as much in 2010 as they did last September and early October:

I made bold the most marked changes between ’09 and ’10 Hudson. His four-seam fastball, changeup/splitter and slider are all getting fewer strikes and whiffs this season.

Hudson owners should watch his control and whiff rates. He’s not pitching poorly, but that 2.64 ERA is misleading. If he continues to garner so few swings and misses and has a merely average walk rate, Hudson loses his fantasy appeal.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Seven.

John Ely – After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year. He is available on the waiver wire in most leagues and will make an excellent pickup for his two home starts against the Astros and the Tigers.

Hiroki Kuroda – After starting with two very solid seasons in the majors, Kuroda has been even better this year. His GB% is up to 58.6 and his K/9 has increased to 7.04. Kuroda’s O-Swing% is 34.9 and his Contact% is 78.8 percent. And he has won four of his five decisions. It is hard to imagine what else owners want to see from Kuroda before they make him a must-start, but he rides the pine in 37 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Get him into your lineup especially as he goes against two pitchers with ERAs above 5.00 for the year.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Generally I am bullish on Matsuzaka for the remainder of the 2010 season but I think he should be on the bench this week. The positives are that he has a 2.67 K/BB ratio and a 32.7 O-Swing%, both career-bests. The big negative is that he has a 0.76 GB/FB ratio and is susceptible to the gopher ball. This week he has road starts in Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park, two of the best HR parks in baseball. Do not be discouraged if he has a rough time this week, just be sure he does it on your bench.

Carl Pavano – Benjamin Franklin said that it takes many good deeds to build a reputation and only one bad one to lose it. Pavano lost any good reputation he may have built in his four injury-plagued years with the Yankees. Even after a 14-win season last year, fantasy owners are lukewarm at best towards Pavano. Last Player Picked has his work so far this season as worth $11 in a 12-team mixed league, good for a solid #3 SP. Yet Pavano is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues. It is not an easy week for him, but Pavano deserves to start in all formats.

Mike Pelfrey – After starting the season with four wins and a save in his first five appearances, Pelfrey has struggled in his last three games. In 17 IP, he has a 6.88 ERA and a 1.588 WHIP. Pelfrey has a tough week, with a game in Atlanta and then an Interleague matchup with the Yankees. Pelfrey is 3-5 lifetime against the Braves with a 5.58 ERA and he has a 5.40 ERA against the Yankees in two career appearances. Leave him inactive for this week if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Seven are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Carpenter, J. Johnson, Halladay, F. Hernandez, Greinke, J. Santana, Gallardo, Cain, Weaver, Price, Hughes, Danks, C. Wilson, J. Sanchez, Niemann, Slowey, Vazquez, Beckett, Marcum, Kazmir, Cueto, Carmona, Lowe, Sheets, W. Rodriguez, Wells, Chacin, Latos, G. Gonzalez, Porcello, E. Jackson, Holland, Millwood, Silva, Volstad, Richard, Bailey, Cook, Bonderman, Lohse, Eveland, Duke, Kendrick, Davies, Bergesen, Norris, Bush, Medlen, F. Garcia, Huff, Lannan, Rowland-Smith, Morton, Stammen, C. Valdez.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Five pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.975 WHIP (2 starts)
Correia – Advised to sit. 4 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (1)
Floyd – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.82 ERA, 1.737 WHIP (2)
Garcia – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 14.46 ERA, 2.571 WHIP (2)

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

The Boston Red Sox hold a 17-16 record and a -11 run differential entering play Tuesday. To get back into playoff contention, the Sox face a steep climb up baseball’s version of Mount Kilimanjaro, the AL East. With the Yankees and Rays playing superbly, Boston currently has a seven percent chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com and a 15 percent shot according to Baseball Prospectus.

Much attention has been paid to the disappointing start of Josh Beckett. After inking a four-year, $68 million contract extension in early April, Beckett has been bombed for a 7.46 ERA over his first seven starts. What gives?

Let’s start with the obvious: he hasn’t been that bad. While Beckett’s ERA makes him look like he should be mopping up for Billy Ray “Rojo” Johnson, he has been subject to terrible luck on balls put in play and has stranded far fewer base runners than usual. Beckett’s BABIP is .365 (.303 career), and his left on base rate is 56.9 percent (71.5 percent career).

While the 30-year-old (this Saturday) has undoubtedly gotten some bad breaks, he also hasn’t been his usual dominant self, either. In 41 innings, Beckett has 7.46 K/9 (lowest since 2006) and 3.51 BB/9 (highest since ’06). His 4.35 xFIP is a run higher than his 2009 mark, and is also his highest since the righty’s first year in Beantown back in 2006.

Beckett’s 8.6 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his marks in recent years. His 82 percent contact rate is just slightly higher than his 80-81 percent figures from 2006-2009. The big change lies in Beckett’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone: his Zone%, in the 52-54 percent range from ’06-09, was consistently above the 48-51 percent MLB average. This year, however, Beckett has located 47.8 percent of his pitches within the zone (the MLB average thus far is 48 percent).

The main culprits for Beckett’s so-so control and slightly elevated contact rate appear to be his two-seam fastball and his curveball. In 2009, he threw his two-seamer for a strike 64.5 percent (57.2 MLB average), with a 10 percent whiff rate (5% MLB average). This year, his two-seamer has been thrown for a strike 58.1 percent, with a 7.5 percent whiff rate. Beckett’s curve got strikes 59.6 percent in ’09 (58% MLB average), with batters whiffing 11.5 percent (11.6% MLB average). In 2010, the hammer’s strike percentage is 54.3, and its whiff percentage is 9.4. Beckett is throwing fewer curves this season (18.8%, compared to 25.5% in 2009), mixing in more cutters and changeups.

It’s true, Beckett hasn’t been great to begin 2010. But I don’t see any reason for outright panic. After years of fantastic pitching, he has gone though a stretch during which he has been merely average. Beckett’s not suddenly getting battered. Rather, he’s having some difficulty placing his two-seam fastball and signature curve and has subsequently issued more free passes than usual. This looks like a good time to pry Beckett from a frustrated owner: ZiPS projects 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 3.37 FIP for the rest of the season, and I see little reason to think he’s more than a mechanical adjustment away from resuming his role as Red Sox co-ace.

During his first full year as a big league starter, Max Scherzer showcased a sizzling fastball. The University of Missouri righty, who came to terms with the Diamondbacks after a protracted holdout that included a stint in indy ball, averaged 94.1 MPH with his heater. In 170.1 frames, Scherzer whiffed 9.19 batters per nine innings, walked 3.33 and posted a 3.88 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starting pitchers.

Shipped to Detroit over the winter as part of a three-time trade that put Curtis Granderson in Yankee pinstripes, Scherzer was expected to team with Justin Verlander to give the Tigers a pair of high-octane aces at the front of the rotation. Recapping Scherzer’s ’09 season, I wrote the following back in January:

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ‘06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

While Scherzer hasn’t missed any time in 2010, he also hasn’t displayed the electric stuff that made him such a prized commodity in fantasy circles: his average fastball velocity is 91.7 MPH this year. In 2009, batters whiffed at Scherzer’s gas 13.1 percent of the time. That blew the six percent big league average out of the water. In 2010, though? his whiff rate on the fastball is a nothing-special 5.9 percent. His fastball was thrown for a strike 65.6 percent last year, but that figure has fallen to 61.7 percent with the Tigers (64.4 percent MLB average).

That fastball is clearly key to Scherzer’s success: per Trip Somers’ tool, Scherzer threw a fastball 74.3 percent of the time in 2009 and has gone to it 68.5 percent in 2010. Given the big drop in whiff rate on the pitch, it’s not surprising to see that Scherzer’s contact rate is up to a MLB average 81 percent, compared to last year’s 76.9 percent mark, and his swinging strike rate is also right around the big league average at 8.2 percent. In 2009, it was 10.6 percent.

Back in April, Mike Fast estimated that a starter’s run average increased by 0.25 runs for every MPH of fastball velocity lost. So far, Scherzer has a 6.81 ERA in 37 innings pitched. He hasn’t been that bad: a .346 BABIP and very low strand rate (58.3 percent) haven’t done him any favors. But with just 6.08 K/9 and 3.41 BB/9, Scherzer’s xFIP sits at a mediocre 4.85. A two-plus MPH loss in velocity would suggest a rise in runs allowed per nine frames in the neighborhood of six-tenths of a run. For a guy as reliant on the heat as Scherzer, perhaps it’s a bit more.

This isn’t to set off panic alarms. I’m not going to channel Jim Cramer and scream “Sell! Sell! Sell!” (Plus, I don’t have a fancy sound-effect board, so it wouldn’t have the same resonance.) But, given Scherzer’s checkered health history, the drop off in velocity is troubling and should be monitored. Scherzer hasn’t shown the same ferocious fastball with his new club.

Updates on three rotation spots from around the league…

Derek Holland | Rangers

Matt Harrison is on the disabled list with a biceps tendon issue, so Texas is turning to Holland to fill his rotation spot. The 23-year-old posted an unsightly 6.12 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in 138.1 IP for the big league team last year, though his 4.38 xFIP is a bit better. He was extremely homer prone, surrendering one long ball for every 5.1 IP, and it wasn’t just a function of Texas’ ballpark either (1.25 HR/9 on the road). Holland is still one of the brightest young lefties in the game, absolutely destroying the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League before his promotion (2.16 FIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.3 K/BB). His next two starts are at home, so the homers might continue to be a problem, but he’ll face the A’s (.308 wOBA) and Angels (.317 wOBA), hardly offensive powerhouses.

Holland is owned in just 2% of Yahoo! leagues, but he should be a nice boost for your team over his next two starts, if not more.

Kris Medlen | Braves

Jair Jurrjens, a fantasy darling last year because of a 2.60 ERA and 14 wins, is on the disabled list with a bum hammy, leaving his starts to the 24-year-old Medlen. He held the Phillies to one run over 4.1 IP in his first start over the weekend, and overall he’s got a snazzy 6.33 K/BB and 3.38 xFIP, albeit in just 22 IP. Medlen’s somewhat limited track record suggests that he can miss bats (9.8% career SwStr%), keep the ball on the ground (41.4 GB%) and thus limit homers (0.60 HR/9), but he’s still a bit of a roll of the dice. His next start comes against the Diamondbacks, and it sounds like Jurrjens will be back shortly after that. Despite sexy ERA and WHIP totals, I consider him non-rosterable in anything but the deepest of deep leagues.

Ross Ohlendorf | Pirates

Back spasms kept the former Yankee on the disabled list for the last month, but he’s set to return to the Buc’s rotation later today. Ohlendorf’s sparkling 3.92 ERA last season hid some poor peripherals – 5.55 K/9, 1.27 HR/9, .265 BABIP – so it’s tough to expect him to maintain a similar ERA going forward. Following today’s start against the Reds, he’ll take on the Cubs in Wrigley, so they aren’t the best of matchups. In a deep mixed or NL-only league, Ohlendorf has a smidgen of value as a matchup 6th or 7th SP. He’s still available in 97% of Yahoo! leagues, but I wouldn’t rush out to get him. Not until he shows he’s over the back issues and is somewhat serviceable, anyway.