Archive for Starting Pitchers

The fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Jeff Niemann took a his sweet time reaching the majors. Niemann, a towering 6-9, 280 pound righty, stuck out over a batter per inning on the farm, but shoulder problems stunted his progress. Entering 2009, he was 26, out of minor league options and had all of 16 big league innings to his name.

After posting a sub-four ERA as a full-time starter with the Rays in ’09, Niemann has seemingly stepped up his game in 2010. He owns a 2.54 ERA in 56.2 frames. Is Niemann finally pitching like the ace that the Rays envisioned when the team handed him a $5.2 million bonus and a major league contract back in ’04? Color me skeptical.

Last year, Niemann’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate, was 4.53. In 2010, its…4.49. He struck out 6.23 batters per nine innings in ’09, walking 2.94 per nine and posting a 40.5 GB%. This year, Niemann has traded some punch outs for a few less walks and a few more grounders — he has 5.72 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.8 GB%. The extra ground balls appear to be the result of his going to a two-seam fastball with more sinking and tailing action.

Despite the marked decline in Niemann’s ERA, you’d have a hard time distinguishing his plate discipline stats from 2009 and 2010. Last season, Niemann got swings on pitches out of the strike zone 23.9%. This year, his O-Swing is 24% (25-27% MLB average). His contact rate was 84.3% in 2009, and 84.4% in 2010 (80-81% MLB average). Niemann is putting more pitches over the plate — his Zone% has increased from 52.1% to 53.8% (48-51% MLB average) — and his first pitch strike percentage has inched from 57.7% to 58.3%, right around the big league average. His swinging strike rate, 7% last year, is 6.6% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average).

The largest differences between Niemann ’09 and Niemann ’10 are in areas over which the pitcher exerts limited control. He has benefitted from a .244 batting average on balls in play. Tampa does play fantastic D, ranking fourth in the majors in team Ultimate Zone rating this season after placing third last year. But even so, that BABIP is going to regress significantly in the months to come.

Also, Niemann has stranded 84.5% of base runners, leaps and bounds above his 73.7% figure from 2009 and the 70-72% big league average. The big righty has a 7.6% home run/fly ball rate this year. That’s exactly the same as his ’09 mark, but it still seems likely that over the long run he’ll serve up a few more dingers and post a HR/FB mark closer to the 11% major leaguer average.

Jeff Niemann is a capable big league starter, a guy with the skill set of a 4-4.5 ERA pitcher. That has plenty of value to the Rays. But fantasy owners are best off marketing Niemann to fellow competitors as a former top prospect who is in the midst of a big breakout. Don’t be surprised if his results begin to resemble his 2009 work — Niemann is basically the same guy.

A day late, but never a buck short…

Hisanori Takahashi | Mets | 6% owned in Yahoo! leagues

Brian Joura mentioned Takahashi as a potential waiver wire grab just yesterday, so let’s keep this short. The veteran Japanese lefty has secured a rotation spot for the foreseeable future given the injuries/ineffectiveness of Jonathon Niese, John Maine, and Oliver Perez, and his soft, softer, and softest offspeed heavy approach should continue to baffle hitters for the next few weeks.

Homer Bailey | Reds

Cincinnati’s somewhat enigmatic righty landed on the disabled list yesterday with shoulder inflammation, though the team has yet to announce his replacement. They did provide a list of candidates though, a list that did not include Aroldis Chapman. The best candidate is lefty Matt Maloney, who spent some time in the bigs last year (4.81 xFIP in 40.2 IP) and has a strong track record as a high strikeout (8.9 K/9), low walk (2.7 BB/9), and solid groundball (42.5%) pitcher in the minors. Sam LeCure and Travis Wood are the other candidates to take Bailey’s place, but neither offers the strikeout potential of Maloney.

All three line up to make Friday’s start (against the Astros!) at the moment, so pay attention to who starts for the Triple-A Louisville Bats tonight and Thursday (they’re off tomorrow) for the answer to who’s replacing Bailey.

Brad Penny & Kyle Lohse | Cardinals

St. Louis lost two-fifths of it’s rotation within the span of one turn, as Penny landed on the disabled list with a strained right lat and Kyle Lohse ran into a bout of “post-exercise inflammation.” The team is hopefully that Penny will only miss the minimum 15 days, but as Erik Manning notes, the Cardinals are overly optimistic when it comes to injuries. Righty P.J. Walters is all but guaranteed to make Thursday’s start at the Padres, and could use his knockout changeup to fashion a low-4.00’s ERA with decent strikeout totals during the interim.

Scott Olsen | Nationals

Olsen was pitching well before hitting the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, just the latest in a career full of shoulder problems. It’s extremely hard not to notice that Stephen Strasburg not only lines up perfectly to take Olsen’s spot on Saturday, but that he threw just 52 pitches in what could be considered a warm-up start last night. As much sense as it makes on the field, I have a hard time believing they would let him make his big league debut on the road (at San Diego) and miss out on all those extra ticket sales. Miguel Batista has been mentioned as a possible fill-in candidate, and in the name of all that is holy, stay away from him. Even with the lure of Petco, just avoid him at all costs.

After this weekend’s series with San Diego, the Nats head to Houston for a four game set, and Olsen’s spot would come up during the final game of that series. If you’re in Washington, pray for rain at some point in the next ten days. That would put Strasburg on target for a June 4th debut at home against the Reds, then five of seven potential starts before the All Star Break would be at home, with one of the away games right up the road in Baltimore. The Strasburg Era is very, very close my friends.

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball at 32-13 and not surprisingly are receiving strong pitching performances from all five guys in their rotation. Here are the fantasy numbers for the Rays’ SP:

Those numbers look very good, but let’s examine two other numbers for each pitcher.

The Rays’ staff goes from being excellent to being less impressive after Shields when we look at these other numbers. Davis goes from a very strong #5 pitcher to one who looks more league average. Out of 51 qualified pitchers in the American League, Davis ranks 47th in K/BB and 46th in xFIP. And in his last four starts, Davis has gone 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA. He has 11 BB and 12 Ks in 20.1 IP and has allowed 4 HR in that span.

Normally, the conclusion might be that Davis is just hitting a rough patch and that he should be given a chance to straighten things out. Especially given his status as a former top prospect and a player who is just 24-years old and holding his own in the toughest division in baseball.

But complicating matters for the Rays is the presence of another top prospect in Triple-A who is having great success in Durham. Jeremy Hellickson, rated the Rays’ number-two prospect by our own Marc Hulet prior to the season, is pitching lights-out in the International League this year. Hellickson is 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 10 starts this year.

Hellickson has 12 BB and 60 Ks in 58 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Monday night ne pitched eight scoreless innings against Pawtucket and allowed just one hit. It really is not much of a surprise that Hellickson is doing well in Triple-A. He got a mid-season promotion to Durham last year and went 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 9 starts there in 2009.

In parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Hellickson is 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has allowed 27 BB and notched 130 Ks in 115.1 IP. The only less than glowing marker is his ground ball rate. Minor League Splits shows him with a 31.5 GB% (not counting his start against PAW) this season. However, that might be a sample size issue, as he has a 43.5 GB% in his minor league career and had a 44.2 percent mark in Durham last year.

Listed as 6’1 by MiLB, Hellickson does not have intimidating size. Minor league prospect maven John Sickels compared him to Roy Oswalt in this regard prior to this season. Oswalt came up at age 23, spent eight games in the bullpen, moved into the starting rotation in June and ended up with a 14-3 record his rookie year.

It would not be surprising to see Hellickson on a similar path, even if he does not come close to duplicating Oswalt’s W-L record. He has little left to prove in Triple-A and Hellickson has received in-season promotions in both 2008 and 2009. The big question is how long the Rays can remain patient with Davis. A 5.5 game lead in the division makes it easier to allow Davis to go out and pitch every five days without looking over his shoulder.

Still, do not be surprised if Hellickson gets a promotion soon. The Rays waited until September to promote Davis last year, but he did not dominate at Durham like Hellickson. Davis posted a 7.94 K/9 and a 3.40 BB/9 at Durham in 2009. Hellickson’s numbers are 9.31 and 1.86, respectively, this year. Like Oswalt, the Rays could call up Hellickson to begin his major league career in the bullpen with the idea of moving him into the rotation when needed.

Here is the latest update to Week Eight 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SFG – Tim Lincecum
STL – Adam Wainwright
LAD – Clayton Kershaw
CHC – Ryan Dempster

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny
SFG – Todd Wellemeyer
LAD – Ramon Ortiz

Lincecum’s velocity is down nearly three miles per hour from 2008 but he has career highs in K/9 (11.01), GB% (48.3), O-Swing% (31.2) and SwStr% (13.4). Not surprisingly, Lincecum also has a career-best 2.35 ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are slightly higher, but his FIP (2.50) ranks second in the majors while his xFIP (2.72) is the lowest. However, in his last outing Lincecum allowed 5 ER and 5 BB in a no-decision on the road against the Diamondbacks.

In his past four seasons, Wainwright has posted HR/FB rates in single digits. But this year’s mark of 3.6 percent has led to an xFIP a full run above his 2.49 ERA. Regardless, Wainwright is one of the elite pitchers in the game. He uses both a curve and slider effectively and combines a high strikeout rate with a high ground ball rate. Add it all up and Wainwright has thrown a Quality Start in eight of his nine appearances this season.

After getting roughed up in a start against the Brewers, Kershaw has been on fire. In three starts covering 22.1 IP, he has allowed 12 H, 2 ER, 7 BB and has 23 Ks. For the season, Kershaw has a 10.02 K/9 but has really struggled with his walks. His 5.26 BB/9 is the second-worst mark in the league. Kershaw also has a very low 5.6 HR/FB rate, which has led to an xFIP almost a full run above his 3.23 ERA.

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Dempster’s 8.33 K/9 is the highest mark he has ever posted as a starting pitcher. But even with that strikeout rate, a solid GB rate and a .252 BABIP, Dempster is just 2-4 on the season. Last time out he snapped a stretch of four straight losses with a no-decision. Dempster’s HR/FB rate is 11.9% but he has served up 7 HR in his last five games.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Eight.

Scott Baker – Despite recently touting Baker as an acquisition target, I think he is someone to keep on the bench this week if at all possible. Baker’s struggles are partly due to a high BABIP and this week he faces the Yankees and the Rangers, two of the three best average-hitting teams in the league. I expect regression to take place eventually, just not this week.

Clay Buchholz – He has won four of his past five decisions. Buchholz is outpitching his peripherals, mainly due to a 4.5 HR/FB rate. He squares off this week against the Rays and the Royals, two teams that are below average in the AL in HR. So, ride the hot hand in Buchholz and make sure he is active this week.

Aaron Harang – After getting off to an 0-3 start with an 8.31 ERA, Harang has pitched much better in his past five games. In that time span he has 5 BB and 30 Ks in 30.2 IP. But his ERA is 4.40, due to 4 HR and a .311 average-against. This week Harang faces the Pirates and Astros, who are the bottom two teams in both AVG and HR. Look for Harang to put up Quality Starts and make sure he is in your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Dave Cameron called him the luckiest man alive earlier this week but the clock is ready to strike midnight for Hernandez. He allowed 11 hits and 8 line drives in his past 12.1 IP, compared to 20 H and 12 LD in his previous 27.1 IP. While he faces two teams that will not be confused for offensive powerhouses in San Francisco and San Diego, Hernandez has to make both of them on the road. We all know the crash is coming and I say it happens this week. Sell him if you can, bench him if you cannot.

Mike Leake – Like Harang, Leake gets home starts against PIT and HOU this week. He has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gotten his BB trouble from earlier in the season under control. After allowing 12 BB in his first 13.2 IP, Leake has given up just 9 BB in his last 39 IP. He has outpitched his peripherals this year, but if Leake can keep the ball in the park, he has a good shot to keep his QS streak intact.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Eight are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lester, Danks, Peavy, Shields, Burnett, J. Garcia, Braden, I. Kennedy, Wolf, Davis, Garland, Saunders, A. Sanchez, Chacin, Cecil, Moyer, Gorzelanny, Masterson, Guthrie, Maholm, Meche, Wellemeyer, Paulino, Kawakami, Ortiz, Burress, Dickey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Six pitchers and how they fared.

Cook – Advised to sit. 3 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.667 WHIP (1 start)
LeBlanc – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2)
Maine – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 2.091 WHIP (2)
Olsen – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Westbrook – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.20 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.133 WHIP (2)

As the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, Gavin Floyd fell well short of expectations with the Philadelphia Phillies. The 6-5, 230 pound righty compiled -0.4 Wins Above Replacement with the Fightins from 2004-2006, then posted a 0.1 WAR season with the Chicago White Sox in 2007 following a December ’06 trade that landed Floyd and Gio Gonzalez on the South Side for Freddy Garcia.

Over the next two seasons, however, Floyd made marked progress. He managed a 4.56 expected FIP (xFIP) in 206.1 innings pitched in 2008, with 6.32 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9. He really emerged in 2009, improving greatly against left-handed batters while authoring a 3.69 xFIP in 193 IP. Floyd whiffed 7.6 batters per nine innings and walked 2.75 per nine.

Unfortunately, the 27-year-old’s 2010 campaign hearkens back to those nightmarish Phillies days–Floyd’s ERA during his first 45 innings is an even seven. Those who spent an early pick on Gavin are probably cursing enough to make Ozzie Guillen blush. Many have severed ties altogether, as Floyd’s Yahoo ownership rate has dipped to 55 percent. Look a little closer, though, and you’ll see a talented pitcher primed to bounce back.

It’s true that Floyd isn’t throwing as well as he did during his career-best ’09 season. But, he’s still showing the skills of a solid starter. Floyd has 7.6 K/9, and he has issued 3.4 BB/9. His ground ball rate is a career-high 50 percent, a positive development for a guy who has been plagued by the long ball in the past (career 1.33 HR/9)

Gavin has been plagued by a .381 batting average on balls in play, compared to a career .298 BABIP. Grounders generally have a higher BABIP than fly balls, but that 2010 mark is obscenely high and will drop.

He’s also stranding far fewer runners than usual. Floyd’s left on base rate is just 57.2 percent. During his big league career, he has stranded 68.3 percent of base runners. That’s below the 70-72% major league average, but even if Floyd struggles a bit from the stretch, that LOB rate should be closer to 70 percent than 60 percent moving forward. His 4.19 xFIP is much more appealing than that appalling ERA.

Floyd’s getting a few more swings on pitches off the plate (28.1 O-Swing% in 2010, compared to 27.5% in ’09; 25-27% MLB average), and his contact rates are largely unchanged. Batters are connecting 77.7 percent of the time this season, after making contact 77.8 percent last year (80-81% MLB average). Floyd is getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent, which is less than 2009 (9.9 percent) but still above the 8-8.5% major league average.

One facet of his game that Floyd could stand to improve is his control–his first pitch strike percentage, 60 percent in 2009, is down to 55.8 percent (58-59% MLB average). And, after hitting the strike zone with 48.2 percent of his pitches last season, Floyd has placed 45.1 percent of his offerings in the zone this year (48-51% MLB average). His cut fastball appears to be the biggest culprit, as he threw it for a strike 70.1 percent in ’09 but just half of the time in 2010 (66.7% MLB average).

He might not be an ace, but Floyd is a quality option in AL-only leagues and is worth a roster spot in most mixed leagues. If possible, snag him off the waiver wire or send a trade offer to a frustrated Floyd owner.

Last Sunday I was able to take in one of Tim Melville’s starts against the Potomac Nationals at the local Pfitzner Stadium. Melville’s obviously a big name and one of the top arms in Kansas City’s farm system so I made it a point to see him after returning home from a challenging set of final exams to wrap up the semester.

The Royals popped Melville in the fourth round of the 2008 draft after he fell considerably down the board due to signability concerns and a lackluster senior season at Holt High School. Rumor has it that his family sent out a letter to scouts before the draft instructing them what type of dollar amount it would take for Melville to sign. Teams appeared to scurry and it looked more and more likely that Melville would end up becoming a Tar Heel.

He almost did but the Royals ponied up and signed him to a well-above slot $1.25 million deal right before the signing deadline. Melville received the biggest bonus in the fourth round that year.

The Royals limited Melville to 100 innings during his first professional season in 2009 at low Class A Burlington. He made 21 starts and only averaged 4.2 innings per start. Melville’s ERA matched up well with his peripherals last year as he had a 3.98 FIP and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He didn’t display pin point precision as evidenced by his walk rate which hovered around 4.

Through seven starts before Sunday’s outing the 20-year-old’s ERA stood out like a sore thumb at 9.76. I have been following Melville’s box scores all season long and that number just hasn’t looked right. He still displayed a solid set of peripherals and was striking people out and not allowing an inordinate amount of home runs. But his control continued to be a problem for him and has plagued him through his first tour of the Carolina League. I came to the ballpark expecting to see Melville somehow lower that ugly ERA.

Melville came out of the gates firing. He caught the P-Nats lead off hitter, Steve Lombardozzi, looking and organizational solider, Brian Peacock, went down hacking. The Blue Rocks were on the road but Melville had a bunch of friends and family in the stands today. Their chants almost reminded me of being at a high school baseball game.

Melville and the Royals dodged a huge bullet in the second inning when third baseman, Tim Pahuta (AKA “The Big Pahuta” which has got to be one of the best nicknames in the minors), hit a rocket right back at Melville. Melville didn’t even try to make a play on the line drive and tried getting out of the way as quick as possible by dropping to the ground. He made it to the ground unscathed by mere instants which was a big sigh of relief. Especially for Melville’s collective friends and family behind the Wilmington dugout.

Melville has a great pitchers frame at 6-foot-5 and 210-pounds. The right hander has a great pitchers body that is likely closed to being maxed out and he easily passed the eye test for me. During his windup he brings his glove over his head and fires straight over the chute and easily creates downhill plane. He has clean mechanics and creates good balance in his delivery. Melville also repeats his delivery very well.

In the early innings Melville exhibited a plus fastball that sat in the 90-92 range with good life. I saw him spike 93 a few times as the game progressed. At times Melville’s command of his fastball escaped him and caused him to prolong opposing hitters at-bats. He walked two during his outing.

Melville also utilizes a nifty 12-6 curveball with good break that is definitely a plus pitch for me. I only saw him fail to get on top of it and hang the pitch a few times during the game and he used it quite often. It’s definitely his best secondary pitch and he isn’t afraid to pitch backwards to hitters and throw it for strike one.

Melville also has a big spread on his curveball. He threw the pitch ranging from 70-78 mph during the game and that isn’t a typo. His ability to take off or add a little velocity to his curveball was very impressive especially for a 20-year-old in his second professional season removed from high school.

Melville didn’t flash a third pitch very often during this outing. The progress of his changeup will be a big part of his development going forward. I see the big key to success for Melville being the command of his fastball. It can be a plus pitch but when his command goes his pitch count increases and he starts walking people. This likely attributes to his poor 5.43 walk rate this season.

Melville holds runners very well when they reach base. But he might be trying to hold them too well and shouldn’t let them become too big of a distraction and focus primarily on going after the hitter at the plate.

For the first time this season, Melville, almost completed six full innings. He was pulled after allowing a run and recording two outs in the sixth inning. Potomac only mustered four hits against Melville and scored two runs off of the right hander. Melville walked two and struck out five.

After the game Melville’s ERA fell to 8.64. His stronger set of peripherals (8.7 K/9, 5.43 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9) to date signify that his ERA obviously doesn’t tell the entire story (heck, when does ERA tell the entire story?) and the high A club’s defense isn’t doing him any favors either. Melville has a .373 BABIP this season.

Overall, I was very impressed with Melville. His sturdy frame and two plus pitches will bode well for him. There’s a variety of things to like about Melville. The command of his fastball and development of his changeup will be a big part of his development and route to the majors. He could take a big jump soon up prospect lists when/if those two aspects of his game improve. He’s only 20 and there’s an ample amount of time for him to figure those things out.

Don’t let Melville’s poor minor league numbers thus far this season fool you. He’s a legit arm and his perfect world projection is that of a number two starter if everything pans out exceptionally well. Since it’s unfair to expect prospects to erase all of their weaknesses I would say Melville most likely has the ceiling of a number three starter that chews up innings due to his durable frame. His numbers should improve as he advances up the minor league ladder and pitches in front of better defenses. I’d give him 2-3 years to work his way through the minors with an ETA of late 2012/2013. I’m expecting him to become a valuable commodity in keeper leagues and if you have the chance to get him cheaply you should act now while his numbers look disappointing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Melville finds himself on a few top 100 prospect lists after this season. He only made one of the four (BA, Keith Law, FanGraphs, BP’s top 101) lists. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him at #93 on his top 101.

SCOUTING TIDBITS

*1B Eric Hosmer-That lasik eye surgery really has done wonders.. While he went hitless in the game that I saw there were still good things to like. He has a good, athletic body. Hosmer has an imposing presence at the plate with a stance that’s slightly open. P-Nats starter, Brad Peacock, fed him a steady diet of fastballs away (he also got him to whiff against a solid breaking pitch) and Hosmer still put some good swings on them. He drilled a liner back into the catchers mask and just got under another that resulted in a pop that was in the air for nearly seven seconds…just another reminder that Hosmer’s raw power is still there despite only two homers on the year.

*C Derek Norris– Norris is a little short and stocky but the bat is impressive. He tracks pitches well and showed the ability to hit the ball to all fields. He singled off Melville in his first plate appearance. Norris DH’ed on Sunday but I saw him catch earlier in the week. It wasn’t pretty. His hands and receiving skills still need a bunch of work. Too many balls scooted by him to the backstop. He isn’t as bad as Jesus Montero back there but where do the Nats put him if he can’t stick behind the plate? Unfortunately, he can’t DH in Washington and a return to the hot corner where he played in high school doesn’t seem probable with franchise icon, Ryan Zimmerman, doing everything right at third.

*RHP Brad Peacock– Peacock opposed Melville on Sunday and some sloppy defense and cheap hits did him in during the 5th inning. He pitched much better than the box score indicated (4.2IP 5R 3BB 6K). Peacock has a simple, repeatable delivery. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and it’s an average to above-average pitch. He displayed fringy breaking stuff today. He could sniff the big leagues as a back of the rotation starter or swing man.

*OF Michael Burgess– He has big plus power and a nice plus arm in right field…but I’m just not a big believer here. He doesn’t move too well at all and he’s got a long swing. His pitch recognition needs work and Melville made him look silly in a four pitch at-bat. Melville fed him three breaking balls that Burgess swung and missed at each time. It didn’t look pretty. He’ll hit some baseballs a long way but I see his swing as an all or nothing proposition. If he doesn’t figure it out quick I could see him flaming out quickly. His best bet might be to try making it to the big leagues as a home run threat off the bench.

*C Salvador Perez– Perez is an advanced defender and he’s a good receiver. He’s 1.95 down to second base and I had him at 1.38 to third base on steal attempts. He’s a good, defensive minded catcher and organizations can always use those. He may become a back up catcher in the big leagues some day.

*OF Jamar Walton– He looks pretty good in a baseball uniform at 6-foot-4 and 195-pounds. The athletic body stands out but unfortunately for Walton…not much else tools wise does either…

*3B Tim Pahuta– He may not be much of a prospect and more like organizational fodder. But he does have two things going that really stand out about him. The Seton Hall product is 27-years-old and in high A ball! That’s awfully old and you’ve got to give the guy credit…he sure does have a plus name.

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I also have some more bittersweet news for you. I recently accepted an internship with a baseball team and this will be my last post for RotoGraphs. While I will miss the scene here I am very excited about my new position. I’ve always aspired to work for a team and this is another step in the right direction. I’ve had a great time writing here and sharing my analysis and opinions with all of you. It’s been a great experience for me and also a fantastic learning tool. The feedback has been great too.

I apologize for the sporadic posts over the past few months. If I had it my way I would have written much more over the past couple months but unfortunately academics kind of ran into the way. RotoGraphs has really picked up this season and I’m sorry to just be leaving the party now. I’m confident that the rest of the staff will do a great job. This is a great website for baseball analysis and it always seems to be getting better and better.

I would like to thank Marc Hulet and David Appelman for extending me this fantastic opportunity last November. David G, my fellow Duquesne Duke, was also instrumental in getting me over here to write. Much thanks to them and the rest of the RotoGraphs and FanGraphs staff for everything during my stay here.

Feel free to stay in touch via email or Twitter @danbudreika where you can find me talking about baseball, quotes, or life in general. Thanks for reading and I hope you all enjoy the remainder of the season. Be well!

Over his five full campaigns as a major league starter, Dan Haren has averaged 5.1 Wins Above Replacement per season. During the past three calendar years, Haren’s 14 WAR rank behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. The 29 year-old D-Backs ace combines power and precision, relying heavily upon high-80’s cutters, high-70’s curves and mid 80’s splitters that make Mark Grace swoon. And, with affordable salaries for the next four seasons ($8.25M this year, $12.75M each in 2011-2012, $15.5M club option for 2013), Haren’s a bargain, too.

At first blush, something appears off in Haren’s 2010 performance. In 59.2 innings pitched, the former Cardinal and Athletic has a mediocre 4.83 ERA. That’s his highest mark since he cut his teeth as a rookie with St. Louis back in 2003. Is Haren slumping? In a word, no.

In his first nine starts of the year, the righty has punched out a career-best 9.35 batters per nine innings. He’s not quite showing the Greg Maddux-esque walk rate from 2009 (1.49 BB/9), but issuing 2.26 free passes per nine frames is superb nonetheless.

Going to his cutter (31 percent) and splitter (19 percent) more often this season, Haren has induced swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 36 percent of the time. That’s the best mark of his big league tenure and tops all MLB starters logging at least 30 innings pitched.

Haren is also missing more lumber than ever: opponents have made contact with 84.6% of his in-zone pitches (88.2% MLB average) and 73.9% of his offerings overall (80.9% MLB average). Those are the lowest Z-Contact and Contact rates of Haren’s career. His in-zone contact rate is one of the 15 lowest among starters, and the overall contact rate sits in the top five.

So, why the high ERA? Haren is getting hosed by a .357 batting average on balls in play (.302 career). He has been unlucky in terms of stranding base runners and surrendering home runs on fly balls as well. Haren’s left on base rate in 2010 is 66.9, compared to a 73.1% career average, and his home run/fly ball rate is 13.1% (10.8% career average).

Haren has been his usual, filthy self–his 3.21 expected FIP (xFIP) ranks 7th among starters, trailing just Lincecum, Halladay, James Shields, Lee, Josh Johnson and Ricky Romero. Some misfortune on balls put in play, a lower-than-usual strand rate and a couple extra round-trippers have obscured another fantastic season. Don’t worry about Haren–he’s just fine. Now, about that bullpen..

Last week we talked about Felipe Lopez coming back and Brendan Ryan struggling. We recommended picking up Lopez because he would probably take the starting shortstop job. Now that he’s back, and it’s looking like that’s the case, we’re the ones looking stupid for not having followed our own advice. And yes, that’s the royal ‘we.’ On to this week’s recommendations.

Casey Blake (47% owned)
Bet you didn’t know that Casey Blake was 36 years old, did you? The fact that he debuted old (30 years old) isn’t good news for the bell curve of his career. We do know that players that debut later usually leave the league earlier, too. That seems to be the case whether that’s because players that debut later need to be closer to their peak in order to be MLB-quality, and therefore drop out earlier as they age because they fall from that peak level, or whether it’s for some other reason. Well, Blake has had a decidedly okay run, but things aren’t looking great. He’s got a six-year low in ISO and a career high in strikeout rate. It’s not luck that’s keeping him down, at least not batted-ball luck – his BABIP is .291. Instead, he’s seeing a career-low of pitches in the zone and swinging at a career high of pitches outside the zone. His contact rate is at a career low. Hmmm… why would you want to pick him up again? Well, because .260-hitting corner infielders with a little bit of power don’t just grow on trees. In certain leagues, he’ll be useful. In just such a league of mine he was dropped. Just don’t go trading your starting 3B because you picked him up is all I’m saying.

Jim Thome (5% owned)
Thome’s ownership levels are surprisingly low for a guy that’s blasted five home runs in only 75 at-bats. The good news is that he’s still his old three-true-outcome self – walking (17.6%), striking out (27.6%) and jacking dongers (.267 ISO). Though he’s also seeing a career-low pitches in the zone, the rest of his swing rate statistics are mostly in line with his career. It seems that he’s in a crowded house, but 75 at bats over 39 games is on pace for about 311 at-bats, and if he keeps hitting home runs, he’ll get more time against righties, against whom he’s done well this year (.280/.438/.600) and career (.294/.429/.614). If you have a space on your bench and can be vigilant about who is starting in Minny on a daily basis, Thome will collect you some home runs for sure.

Marc Rzepczynski (1% owned)
Maybe this is my ‘hunch,’ but Rzep/Scrabble just made his first rehab start today and might join the Jays within a week. Then again, he gave up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in that re-hab start and Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are enough a part of the future and have shown enough this year that they should keep their jobs even when Scrabble returns. So that leaves Dana Eveland as the crux of the argument. Certainly his ERA (4.98) doesn’t argue for his inclusion in the rotation, and his secondary stats are even worse (4.15 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 5.58 xFIP). Doesn’t seem like too much is in Scrabble’s way. As long as he can find his old groundballing (51.2% last year) and strikeout (8.8 K/9 last year) ways, he’ll be a much better solution. Hopefully the Jays will also see things this way.

Ownership numbers from Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

When the New York Mets opened the 2010 season with top prospect Jenrry Mejia, a 20-year-old righty with scarce experience above A-Ball, in the big league bullpen instead of in a minor league rotation, the move was viewed as a short-sighted play by a GM and manager with tenuous job security.

The Mets have apparently changed course, however. According to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, Mejia will return to the minors to get stretched out as a starter. With the oft-pummeled Oliver Perez banished to the ‘pen and Jon Niese at least temporarily sidelined by a hamstring injury (R.A. Dickey to the rescue!), New York is short on starting options and hopes that Baseball America’s #56 preseason prospect can return to take some turns later this summer.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 for just $16,500, Mejia split the 2009 campaign between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League. The 6-0, 160 pound (listed) Mejia struck out 7.9 batters, walked 2.9 per nine and had a 61.7 percent ground ball rate in 50.1 FSL frames. In Double-A, he increased his whiff rate (9.5 K/9) and got plenty of grounders (56.3 GB%) in 44.1 innings, though Mejia issued more walks (4.7 BB/9).

Entering 2010, Baseball America described Mejia as possessing 90-96 MPH gas (touching 98 MPH) with “so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters.” BA also liked his low-to-mid-80’s changeup, while also noting that the off-speed pitch was inconsistent and that his breaking stuff needed plenty of work.

As a reliever in the majors with a praiseworthy fastball and rudimentary secondary stuff, Mejia did what you would expect: he reared back and fired. He used his heater (averaging 94.4 MPH on the radar gun) about 81 percent of the time, supplementing it with a high-70’s curveball (10 percent) and a mid-80’s change (nine percent).

In 17.1 low-leverage innings (0.84 Leverage Index), Mejia had 7.27 K/9, 4.15 BB/9 a 58.5 ground ball rate and a 4.23 expected FIP (xFIP). He had some issues getting ahead in the count, as a sub-50 first pitch strike percentage attests, but Mejia simply holding his own is a testament to his talent.

This is the right move for the Mets–Mejia’s long-term value to the franchise is considerably higher as a potential front-line starter than it is as a reliever. He needs innings to build stamina, hone his control and develop his change and slider.

Similarly, Mejia’s returning to a starting role should be viewed as a positive for fantasy owners. His high K/high ground ball skill set makes him highly coveted in keeper leagues. It’s easier to scrounge for saves that it is to find a premium starting prospect.