Archive for Starting Pitchers

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 12. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Wade Davis – In his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA. While he has two home starts this week, you might want to bench him until you see some better results.

Gio Gonzalez – Roughed up in his last two starts, both on the road, Gonzalez returns home for two games this week. In Oakland he has a 2.90 ERA in six games. Make sure he is active for games against the Reds and Pirates.

Jamie Moyer – A terrible outing against the Red Sox two starts ago has masked a string of solid pitching by Moyer since early May. Activate him for his two home starts this week.

Jon Niese – Since returning from the disabled list, Niese is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA. He has a tough matchup against Justin Verlander in his first outing but has two home starts, where the Mets are 24-10. Keep him active this week.

Jason Vargas – Not everything has been disappointing this season in Seattle. Vargas has a 2.88 ERA and has hurled a Quality Start in 11 of his last 12 outings. Get him in your lineup for this week’s action against the Cubs and Brewers.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Danks, Dempster, Burnett, J. Garcia, E. Santana, Latos, Leake, Baker, Cecil, A. Sanchez, L. Hernandez, Hunter, Chacin, Talbot, Guthrie, Narveson, Ohlendorf, R. Lopez, Chen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Cueto – Advised to Start. W, 6.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.667 WHIP (2 starts)
E. Jackson – Advised to sit. 4.26 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.895 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 15 Ks, 0.753 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to start. W, 0.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.750 WHIP (1)
Slowey – Advised to start. W, 3.86 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)

In 2009, Randy Wells was a surprisingly effective cog in the Chicago Cubs’ rotation. The converted catcher and returned 2007 Rule V pick of the Blue Jays posted a 3.05 ERA in 165.1 innings pitched, placing 10th among qualified National League starters. This season, however, Wells has fallen to a 4.92 ERA in 78.2 frames. Has the 27-year-old righty regressed significantly, or are better days ahead?

While Wells’ ’09 performance was sturdy, it is important to note that his gaudy ERA overstated the extent of his dominance. With 5.66 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, Wells had a more modest 4.24 xFIP. The ERA/xFIP dichotomy was the result of a fairly high 76% rate of stranding base runners (the MLB average is usually around 70-72%, though pitcher skill does play some role) and a home run/fly ball rate of eight percent (11% MLB average).

Extreme strand and HR/FB rates have a way of returning toward those big league averages, and we’ve seen that from Wells in 2010 — he’s leaving 67.8% of runners on base, and 9.2% of his fly balls are reaching the bleachers. While a reversal of fortune on those fronts should have been expected, Wells has seemingly gone to the other end of the luck spectrum this season. He’s got a .355 batting average on balls in play, compared to .294 in 2009. Among qualified starting pitchers, only Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke has a higher BABIP.

The first thing that sticks out regarding Wells’ performance on balls put in play is his line drive rate. It’s 25.1% this year, highest among starters and leaps and bounds above his 18.8% mark from last season. Line drives aren’t the most stable metric from season to season, but we know that bad things happen on batted balls classified as liners — line drives in the NL this season have a .975 slugging percentage and a .715 BABIP. Wells’ liners have a .965 SLG% and a .754 BABIP. That’s certainly a contributing factor to his inflated BABIP. But what makes this finding confusing is that just about every other performance measure suggests that Wells isn’t getting hit hard at all.

So far, he has 7.09 K/9. He’s whiffing 18 percent of batters faced this year, up from 15 percent in 2009. Wells’ swinging strike rate, 8.1% last season, has climbed to 10.9% (8-9% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 77.1% in 2010, compared to 81.8% last year (80-81% MLB average). Relative to the big league average, Randy’s outside swing percentage is up — he’s outpacing the MLB norm by 17 percent this year (33.1 O-Swing, 28.2 MLB average) after surpassing it by 11 percent last year (27.8 O-Swing, 25.1 MLB average).

Wells is getting swinging strikes when throwing a fastball 6.8 percent in 2010, compared to 4.3% last season (the MLB average is around six. His slider is getting slightly more whiffs (13.3% in ’10 to 12.8% in ’09, 13.6% MLB average) and his changeup has a 19.4% whiff rate, up considerably from last year’s 13.1% clip (12.6% MLB average). None of these numbers suggest he has gotten easier to hit.

In addition to getting more whiffs, Wells has actually lowered his walk rate slightly to 2.29 BB/9. He continues to get ahead in the count often, with a 61.6 first pitch strike percentage (61.4% last year, 58% MLB average).

Overall, Wells’ xFIP is a tidy 3.68 — over a half-run lower than his 2009 figure. That line drive rate bears watching, but there are many positives to be found in Wells’ “disappointing” follow-up to his celebrated rookie campaign. If he’s available in your league (and with a 51% Yahoo ownership rate, there’s a decent chance that he is), do your team a favor and scoop up a quality starter on the cheap.

J.D. Martin, Nationals (Owned in one percent of Yahoo Leagues)

While Washington’s non-Strasburg starters have been lackluster this season, with a collective 4.68 xFIP that ranks 15th in the NL, Martin’s solid performance so far might not buy him much job security. Scott Olsen (shoulder inflammation) could be back next month, as could Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder). Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery) is another possibility to pitch in August or September. Returns for Jason Marquis (elbow) and Ross Detwiler (hip) are less certain.

In the meantime, however, NL-only players could do worse. Martin, 27, was a supplemental first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians in the 2001 draft. The 6-4, 200 pound righty once rated prominently on prospect lists, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 prior to 2002. Sadly, injury derailed his ascent to the majors — Martin underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005. His standing in Cleveland’s system slipped, as he was shifted mostly to relief work in 2008, and he then signed as a minor league free agent with the Nationals prior to 2009.

Martin’s a soft-tosser — he features an 87-88 MPH fastball, a mid-80’s cutter, a low-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup — but he has a quality minor league track record and exceptional control. Last season at Triple-A Syracuse, Martin had 6.44 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9 and a 2.77 FIP in 88 innings pitched. Prior to his late-May call-up in 2010, he whiffed 5.5 per nine, walked 1.8 per nine, surrendered 0.7 HR/9 and held a 3.75 FIP in 41 IP.

Logging 102.1 big league frames over the past two years, Martin has 4.84 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. There’s no guarantee that he’ll succeed — Martin won’t miss many bats, and he’s a fly ball pitcher (37.4 GB%) who has experienced problems with the long ball (1.67 HR/9) — but he could be a decent mid-to-back-end starter. ZiPS projects 5.63 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

Ike Davis, Mets (16%)

The 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft experienced a famous power outage after signing (.256/.326/.326, 0 HR in 239 New York-Penn League PA), causing some Mets fans to rashly wonder if the team made a mistake. Since then, Davis has raked. He batted a combined .298/.381/.524 in 488 PA between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League last season, walking 11.7 percent of the time, punching out 26.1 percent and posting a .226 ISO while going yard 20 times.

After a productive Arizona Fall League stint and a week-plus at the Triple-A level, Davis was bumped up to the majors early in 2010. Davis, 23, has made a seamless transition. The 6-5 lefty hitter has a .261/.345/.447 triple-slash in 226 PA, with a .346 wOBA. He’s showing decent pop, with a .186 ISO, and he’s walking in 11.1 percent of his trips to the plate. Plus, those dugout flips are so freakin’ cool.

Davis has been a fairly aggressive batter, swinging at 29.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.2% MLB average this season), but he holds that double-digit walk rate as a result of seeing very few offerings over the plate. Pitchers are giving Isaac Benjamin an in-zone pitch just 38.3 percent of the time, the lowest rate among qualified MLB hitters (47.3% MLB average). On a related note, opponents are reluctant to give him fastballs — Davis is getting a fastball under 50% of the time, eighth-lowest among big league batsmen. So far, the opposition’s strategy against Ike seems to be, “feed him off-speed stuff off the plate and hope for a chase.” It’ll be interesting to see if that approach shifts in the months to come.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

Anibal Sanchez has endured a star-crossed career. The former Red Sox farmhand, picked up by the Marlins as part of the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell/Hanley Ramirez mega-deal in November of 2005, punched out over ten batters per nine innings in the minors. In its 2006 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America remarked that while Florida desired Jon Lester in the Beckett deal, Sanchez was “a premium prospect in his own right.” And on September 6, 2006, Sanchez sat on top of the baseball world, no-hitting the Arizona Diamondbacks in the thirteenth start of his rookie season.

Over the next three years, however, Sanchez would spend more time rehabbing than trying to retire big league batters. While a Sox prospect, he overcame 2003 surgery to transpose a nerve in his right elbow. But injuries again crept into the picture — Sanchez underwent labrum surgery in May of 2007. After a near-15 month absence from a major league mound, he returned on trade deadline day of 2008. Unfortunately, shoulder woes derailed his 2009 season as well — he spent nearly four months on the DL. Over the 2007-2009 period, Sanchez logged just 167.2 MLB innings.

So far this season, it appears as though Sanchez is finally making good on those predictions of acedom. In 81 frames, the 26-year-old right-hander has a 3.22 ERA. That puts him in the same company as studs like Mat Latos and Tommy Hanson. Fantasy owners have been slow to get on board, though, as Sanchez is owned in just 38 percent of Yahoo leagues. Should more players be scrambling to the waiver wire to snag Anibal, or is that reticence well-justified?

During his first 13 starts of the season, Sanchez has 6.78 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent groundball rate. If those numbers sound rather run-of-the-mill, that’s because they are — in 2010, the average MLB hurler has whiffed 7.02 batters per nine innings, with 3.45 BB/9 and a groundball rate around 44 percent. During his big league career, Sanchez has 6.64 K/9, 4.19 BB/9 and a 43.4 GB%. He’s issuing fewer walks than in years past, which is certainly a positive. But there’s nothing here that portends to a great leap forward.

Similarly, his plate discipline stats show some, though not a ton, of improvement. Sanchez’s rate of first pitch strikes is up, sitting at 59.4 percent (55.6% career average, 58% MLB average). Also, he’s getting swings on pitches out of the zone 29.6% (28.1% MLB average), the first time his O-Swing has surpassed the big league average. But his 8.9 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his 8.7% career mark (8-9% MLB average), as is his 80.8% contact rate (80.2% career average, 80-81% MLB average).

So how is Sanchez’s ERA in the low three’s? Homers. Or rather, a lack thereof. When opponents loft a fly ball against Sanchez, it’s leaving the yard just 3.4 percent of the time. That’s the fifth-lowest rate among qualified big league starters. For comparison, the major league average is about 11 percent, and Sanchez’s career rate entering 2010 was 8.7 percent. Dolphin…er, Sun Life Stadium had a neutral HR/FB park factor over the past few years. There’s very little chance that Sanchez continues to see so many balls die at the warning track.

His xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 4.34. That’s better than his recent work — 4.43 in 2008 and 4.64 last season — but not greatly so. Sanchez has essentially been a slightly above-average starter who has gotten some big breaks in the dinger department. I think Sanchez is certainly worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues, and he could be an option in deeper mixed formats. But keep in mind that, between his voluminous injury history and ERA drop based on a factor largely out of the pitcher’s control, Sanchez is far from a sure thing.

Glance at Clay Buchholz’s ERAs over the 2008-2010 seasons, and you’ll be inclined to believe that the former phenom’s major league performance has progressed from ghastly (6.75) to good (4.21) to great (2.52). That’s a compelling narrative — the hot-shot prospect tosses a no-no during a September ’07 call-up, gets his head handed to him the following year and then makes the necessary adjustments to blossom into a full-fledged ace.

It’s a nice story. But it’s also misleading. In truth, Buchholz neither fell to the depths of despair that his ’08 ERA suggests, nor has he risen from the ashes like a phoenix this season for a Boston rotation suffering greatly from injury and underachievement. Throughout his big league tenure, Buchholz has been pretty good, but hardly elite.

In 2010, Buchholz has 5.72 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, a 51.5 percent ground ball rate and a 4.33 xFIP in 78.2 frames. For comparison, his xFIP was 4.28 in ’08 and 4.09 last season. The big change in Clay’s ERA is due to factors largely out of his control — his BABIP is .268 (.302 career average) and his home run per fly ball rate is just 4.2%. His career rate is 11%, right at the big league average.

The 25-year-old’s K rate is down from the previous two seasons (8.53 K/9 in ’08, 6.65 in ’09). His swinging strike rate is basically the same all the years, ranging from 9.7% to 9.9% (8-9% MLB average), but the culprit for the lack of punch outs appears to be the rate of contact made against Buccholz’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He’s throwing more off-the-plate pitches in 2010, and batters are swinging at plenty of them. But they’re also connecting more often against those offerings:

Buchholz has thrown just 43.8 percent of his pitches within the zone this year (47.3% MLB average). Batters have gone after his out-of zone pitches 31.5% (28.1% MLB average). However, they have put the bat on the ball 67.6% (66.4% MLB average).

That’s a sizeable increase from the previous two seasons — in 2008 and 2009, hitters made contact with Buchholz’s out-of-zone pitches at a rate that was about seven percent below the major league average. This season, they’re making contact on those pitches at a clip that’s two percent above the MLB norm.

Pitch selection has played a role in the K decline. Buchholz has a four-pitch mix: a 93-94 MPH fastball, a hard-upper 80’s slider, a mid-to-high-seventies curveball and a 79-80 MPH changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ site, Buchholz has increasingly gone to his slider this season, at the expense of some changeups and curves:

His fastball has never garnered many whiffs, and neither has his curve. Buchholz’s changeup has always gotten a healthy number of swing-throughs. His slider produced plenty of whiffs in ’08, but it’s not missing many bats this year:

So more sliders, and fewer whiffs on the slider. In our splits section on the player pages, we have pitch usage by count. Buchholz is going to his fastball and slider (two pitches with below-average whiff rates) more often in two-strike situations, in place of his curveball and whiff-generating changeup:

(note: the numbers are rounded, so not all columns add up to exactly 100).

These changes in Buchholz’s approach help explain why he hasn’t missed as many bats as expected. His minor league K rates suffered over this period as well. Buchholz spent much of 2007 pitching between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, and he logged a good number of innings with the PawSox in ’08 and ’09. Buchholz’s major league equivalent K rates declined over the years — According to Minor League Splits, Buchholz’s work in the minors in 2007 translated to 9.8 K/9 in the big leagues, but that mark fell to 7.7 K/9 in 2008 and 6.7 K/9 in 2009.

Clay Buchholz has a fantastic minor league track record. He exhibits strong ground ball tendencies, and he was an elite strikeout pitcher during most of his days as a prospect. It wouldn’t be surprising if he took significant steps forward in the coming years. But the current version of Buchholz is more of a solid, low-four’s ERA-type than any sort of rotation messiah.

Let’s round up the latest rotation ins-and-outs from around the league…

Jake Arrieta | Orioles | 2% owned

The O’s turned to one of their top prospects last week, and Arrieta rewarded them with a solid effort and a win against the Yankees. I don’t like his long-term outlook as much as I like his teammate Brian Matusz’s, but I think Arrieta can best his performance this year. He should be good for a low-to-mid-4.00’s ERA with close to 7.50 K/9 the rest of the way, so there’s value here in an AL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Matt Harrison | Rangers | 0%

Rich Harden hit the DL with a strained glute, which is fitting because opponents have been kicking it all year. Harrison is the leading candidate to fill in for him (start would be Saturday), but the team acknowledged that could change if they need him in relief before then. He’s posted a 4.97 ERA (4.65 xFIP) in six starts and three relief appearances this year, and (R) ZiPS projects a hideous 5.74 ERA with just 5.40 K/9 the rest of the way. Even with Saturday’s start coming at Houston, he’s not worth a roster spot. None of the other candidates sound appetizing either.

Jesse Litsch | Blue Jays | 1%

After missing most of last season with Tommy John surgery, Litsch returned to the mound last week with a pair of mediocre-at-best outings against the Tigers and Twins. He massively outperformed a dreadful strikeout rate in 2007 (3.81 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 4.05 K/9), and we can’t expect that luck to continue after elbow surgery since command is usually the last thing to come back. Despite the sexy past ERA’s, I wouldn’t risk it even in deep leagues.

Brad Lincoln | Pirates | 2%

David Golebiewski already introduced us to Lincoln last week, so I’ll just send you that way. I guess all I have to add is that yes, he still has a job.

Joe Martinez | Giants | 0%

Martinez takes the place of the injured and ineffective Todd Wellemeyer, and will start on Tuesday at home against Baltimore. He owns a ~3.41 FIP in Triple-A this year, aided by a stellar 58.5% GB%. CHONE projected a 5.27 ERA in 21 starts before the season, though it doesn’t look like he’ll pick up that much playing time. I like him as a sneaky spot starter against the lowly O’s, but not much beyond that.

Daisuke Matsuzaka | Red Sox | 41%

Dice-K came down with a forearm injury during warm ups on Saturday and was immediately placed on the DL just to get another arm for the bullpen. The injury isn’t believed to be serious and Matsuzaka should be back as soon as he’s eligible to be activated on the 23rd, in which case he’d only miss once start (because of the off day today). The Red Sox haven’t announced who will replace him on Saturday, but Michael Bowden (0% owned) lines up to start that day down in Triple-A. He’s got a ~5.58 FIP (6.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) in Pawtucket this year, and the only way I’d start him (against the Dodgers at Fenway) is if you’re so far behind in the ERA and WHIP categories that you’re just gunning for W and K at the end of the week.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Roy Halladay
SDP – Jon Garland
DET – Max Scherzer
OAK – Trevor Cahill
SEA – Luke French
STL – Jeff Suppan

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

OAK – Dallas Braden
DET – Rick Porcello
PHI – Kyle Kendrick (much to the dismay of Phillies Red)
PIT – Zach Duke
SEA – Ian Snell

Halladay has a 1.96 ERA and four losses. The losses have been two that were deserved (12.2 IP, 11 ER) and two of the hard-luck variety (17 IP, 3 ER). In his first start, Halladay renews acquaintances with the New York Yankees, against whom he is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA lifetime. In his second start, Halladay goes up against the Twins, a team he is 8-1 lifetime against.

Garland has given up 9 ER in his last 13 IP and picked up back-to-back losses for the first time since his first two decisions of the year. Still, his ERA is a nifty 2.84, even if it is a run and a half lower than his xFIP. Garland gets home starts this week against Toronto and Baltimore. This year in Petco, Garland has a 1.15 ERA in 39 IP.

Scherzer followed up his 14-strikeout performance with a mediocre effort, but in his last outing he went 7.1 IP, allowed 3 ER, 1 BB and had 7 Ks. He gets two home starts this week, including a game against his old Diamondbacks teammates at the end of the week.

Cahill is second on the A’s with 5 W and has picked up a victory in four of his last five starts. He has pitched a Quality Start in each of his last six games, including his last outing when he went a season-high 8 IP and permitted just 1 ER. Cahill is succeeding despite a 4.85 K/9 and a 1.58 K/BB. He has a normal HR/FB rate and is excelling thanks to a .235 BABIP and a 77.3 strand rate.

French is a soft-tossing lefty acquired by the Mariners in the Jarrod Washburn deal at last year’s trade deadline. His best pitch is his changeup and he also complements his 87.7 mph fastball with a slider. A flyball pitcher, French has very little margin for error. He has a road start in St. Louis and a matchup against the Reds this week.

Suppan is back with the Cardinals, hoping to recapture the form that earned him a $42 million contract following the 2006 season. In his three previous years with St. Louis, Suppan won 44 games and had a 3.95 ERA. In the last three-plus years with the Brewers, Suppan notched 29 Wins and had a 5.08 ERA. In 15 games with the Brewers this season, Suppan had a .399 BABIP.

Jonathon Niese (owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues)

Niese, 23, cobbled together a quality minor league resume (8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 51.8 GB%). The left-hander was on his way to establishing himself as a member of the Mets’ rotation last season when a torn right hamstring ended his season in August, requiring a surgical fix. He hit the DL this season with another, milder right hamstring injury. But when on the mound, Niese has impressed.

Tossing 57.1 innings, New York’s seventh round pick in the ’05 draft has 7.06 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and a 3.94 xFIP. He’s showing strong a ground ball rate to boot, with a 52.2 GB%. Niese doesn’t blow batters away — his fastball hits 90 MPH on a good day. But he supplements the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter that tails in on the hands of righties, as well as the occasional mid-70’s curveball and low-80’s changeup. Niese’s four-seamer and cutter both have above-average strike and whiff percentages:

Four-Seamer: 66.2 Strike% (64.1% MLB Avg.), 8.1 Whiff% (6% MLB Avg.)
Cutter: 69.4 Strike% (68.3% MLB Avg.), 12 Whiff% (8.8% MLB Avg.)

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.53 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 3.93 FIP from Niese. He doesn’t possess one standout skill, but Niese makes batters chop the ball into the grass while amassing decent K and walk rates. He’s plenty useful in NL-only formats.

Troy Glaus, Braves (63%)

Signed to a one-year, $1.75 million deal over the winter, Glaus was picked up off the scrap heap as a Freddie Freeman stopgap. The former Angel, Diamondback, Blue Jay and Cardinal’s career looked to be on the ropes after a 2009 season ruined by a back problem and a right shoulder injury that required surgery. CHONE (.249/.359/.447, .356 wOBA) and ZiPS (.252/.358/.441, .355 wOBA) projected a reasonably productive season for Atlanta’s reclamation project, but that was under the assumption that the 33-year-old wouldn’t again fall to pieces physically.

So far, Glaus has stayed healthy and is surpassing those pre-season forecasts. In 253 plate appearances, he has a .279/.375/.474 line and a .373 wOBA. He’s drawing walks at a 13.4% clip, and while he’s not hitting for the mammoth power of years past, Glaus has a solid .195 ISO. Freeman (.249/.306/.422 in 185 AB in Triple-A) isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball for Gwinett, so Glaus’ job looks secure. ZiPS projects a .260/.363/.449 triple-slash from here on out, with a .361 wOBA.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Hiroki Kuroda – He has been a reliable pitcher for the Dodgers this season with eight Quality Starts. But on the road Kuroda has allowed 4 HR in 31 IP. This week he has road starts in Cincinnati and Boston. The Reds and Red Sox rank second and third in most HR hit this season. Put Kuroda on the bench this week if you have other options.

Shaun Marcum – Like Kuroda, Marcum has been a very good pitcher this year. But Marcum has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 11 ER in 12.1 IP. Additionally, Marcum has a pronounced home/road split. This year at home, Marcum has a 2.59 ERA but it is nearly two runs higher on the road at 4.42. With West Coast road games in San Diego and San Francisco, sit Marcum this week.

Justin Masterson – All season long Masterson has out-pitched his peripherals. Finally, in his last three starts Masterson is starting to see some positive results. He is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.078 WHIP. Masterson still struggles with his control and versus LHB. But this week he faces the Mets and Pirates, who are both below-average in walks and neither team is dominated with LHB. Masterson is still on the waiver wire in most leagues and is worth an add this week.

Jonathan Sanchez – Despite great numbers, Sanchez has not racked up the wins this season. In his last four games, Sanchez has 20 Ks in 23.1 IP and a 2.31 ERA yet is only 2-2 in that span. A home game against the Orioles offers a nice chance for Sanchez to break into the win column. Ride the hot pitcher and make sure Sanchez is active this week.

C.J. Wilson – The Rangers’ lefty endured a tough stretch where he gave up 17 ER in 16 IP but has been much better in his last two outings, in which he has picked up two Wins with 10 Ks in 12 IP. Wilson does have two road games this week, but they are against the last-place Marlins and the 25-36 Astros. Activated Wilson for his two starts this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Wainwright, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Price, Buchholz, Pavano, Zambrano, Braden, Wolf, Saunders, Harang, Porcello, F. Garcia, Paulino, Cook, Kendrick, Tillman, Duke, Lincoln, Davies, Lannan, Snell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Nine pitchers and how they fared.

Bonderman – Advised to start. 6.59 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.683 WHIP (2 starts)
Harden – Advised to sit. W, 6.30 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.700 WHIP (2)
Noalsco – Advised to sit. W, 4.38 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.541 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.39 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Takahashi – Advised to start. 10.61 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)