Archive for Starting Pitchers

Marlins’ starter Ricky Nolasco was a trendy sleeper pick among the stathead crowd coming into the season … well, sleeper makes him sounds like a big secret. I suppose he was already a well known guy, but not everyone looked past the 5.06 ERA and saw the gaudy peripheral stats that suggested damn near ace-level production. Semantics.

Anyway, Nolasco is producing almost exactly as we expected him to this season. His walks are super low (1.82 BB/9), he’s generating close to 40% ground balls (39.2%, to be exact), just about 11% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his strand rate is right around the league average following last season’s unfathomably low 61.0% LOB%. All that is nice, but there’s one big red flag here: he’s not striking out nearly as many batters.

After a studly 9.49 K/9 last year (7.88 in 2008), Nolasco is down basically three full strikeouts to 6.54 K/9 this year. Let’s cut right to the chase and dig into the Plate Discipline stats (click for larger)…

You can see that Nolasco isn’t generating as many swings and misses this season, which is to be expected with such a dramatic drop in strikeout rate. His O-Contact% has taken an extreme jump up to 70.1% this year, so pitches that were being swung through last year are being put in play or fouled off this year. Make sure to note that the league as a whole is not only swinging at more pitches out of the zone this year, but also making more contact with them as well. Nolasco’s jump in O-Contact% is still extreme even considering the league-wide change.

Pitch Type Values tell us that Nolasco’s fastball has been a bit more effective this year while his slider has been slightly more ineffective, though his split-finger fastball has gone from 1.95 runs above average last year (per 100 thrown) to 1.05 runs below average this year. A drop of three runs per 100 pitches is significant, and indicates that the pitch might be the root of Nolasco’s strikeout problems.

The righty’s fastball velocity is down exactly one mile an hour to 90.5 while the splitter is down close to three miles an hour to 84.9, so perhaps there’s too much separation between the pitches. The reduced velocity has altered the movement of the pitch, certainly not unexpected. It’s lost close to five inches of horizontal movement and close to an inch and a half of vertical falling off the tableness (looking at some other splitters from around the league, it doesn’t appear to be a calibration issue, though that always remains a possibility). Nolasco’s splitter still features some fade and sink, but not nearly as much as it did a year ago.

Unsurprisingly, he throws the pitch primarily in two strike counts, so it’s possible the slower, straighter version of his splitter isn’t getting it done. I don’t have to tell you that correlation =/= causation, so this is far from proof. Just a theory. Whatever’s going on, Nolasco’s strikeout rate has dropped by a third, and his overall performance has suffered as a result.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 131 IP of 4.26 ERA (3.69 FIP) and 7.97 K/9 ball the rest of the way, so it sees an improvement coming. He still has trade value based on reputation alone, but for now it might be best to sit him against teams that do an especially good job of getting the bat on the ball. I don’t recommend dropping him outright unless you’re in an especially shallow league.

A night after getting mauled by cyborg..er Stephen Strasburg, the Pittsburgh Pirates promoted RHP Brad Lincoln to start Wednesday night against the Nationals. Two roster spots were opened up yesterday — 1B Jeff Clement was sent to Triple-A Indianapolis and LHP Jack Taschner was DFA’d — and the other spot is expected to go to OF Jose Tabata. If that move becomes official, look for a post on Tabata tomorrow.

Lincoln, 25, was the fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft. The University of Houston product starred on the mound and in the batter’s box for the Cougars, but a power pitching arsenal assured that he’d leave the bat behind as a pro. Here was Baseball America’s scouting report of Lincoln at the time:

He sits at 91-93 mph with good life on his fastball, touches 95-96 most games and has peaked at 98. He holds that velocity throughout games. His curveball is equally as impressive, and he can throw it for strikes or break it out of the zone as a chase pitch. He also shows feel for a changeup that’s close to an average pitch already. Lincoln is close to big league ready and his competitive makeup means he’ll get everything out of his considerable ability.

Unfortunately, the 6-foot righty would toss just 23.2 innings as a Pirates farmhand in 2006 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery the following April. After missing the entire 2007 season, Lincoln returned in 2008 and split his season between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League. At the lower level, he had 6.68 K/9, 0.87 B/9 and a 3.78 FIP in 62 IP. In the Carolina League, Lincoln logged 41.2 innings and had rates of 6.26 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 and a 4.23 FIP. Though he didn’t strike out a ton of batters, Lincoln was stingy with the walks and kept the ball down (a combined 50.9 GB% between the two levels, according to Minor League Splits).

In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, BA said that Lincoln’s post-Tommy John velocity returned to the 90-93 MPH range, and his hammer curve regained its bite. His changeup was said to need work, though, and he also “caught too much of the strike zone at times, making him susceptible to home runs.” (Lincoln surrendered about 1.1 HR/9 in ’08)

In ’09, Lincoln again divided his season between two levels. In the Double-A Eastern League, he whiffed 7.8 per nine, walked 2.16 and had a 2.96 FIP in 75 innings. A low homer rate (0.48 per nine) contributed to that sub-three FIP, however, and his ground ball rate dipped to 43.8%. Promoted to the Triple-A International League, Lincoln threw 61.1 innings with rates of 6.16 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 3.85 FIP. He was an extreme fly ball pitcher for the Indians, getting grounders just 34 percent.

Sent back to Indy to begin the 2010 season, Lincoln improved his K rate (7.2 per nine), kept the walks low (1.8 BB/9) and had a more neutral GB/FB profile (42.6 GB%), posting a 3.67 FIP in 68.1 IP.

While no premier prospect, Lincoln has the look of a quality mid-rotation arm. He controls his low-90’s fastball well, has an above-average curve and while his change doesn’t draw much praise, he hasn’t shown much a platoon split in the minors (3.88 FIP versus lefties, 3.78 FIP against right-handers). According to Minor League Splits, Lincoln’s ’09 pitching translated to a major league line of 5.64 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 4.57 FIP. His 2010 season equates to 6.09 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.85 FIP. Before the season began, CHONE projected 6.22 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 1.34 HR/9 and a 4.70 FIP, while ZiPS forecasted 5.58 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.65 FIP.

Lincoln’s worth an add in NL-only formats, given his adequate punch out rates and low walk rate. He’s probably not a prime target in keeper leagues, but he’s someone to monitor there, too. Watch his ground ball rate, though — as BA indicated, home runs could become a problem.

Johan Santana’s career credentials are unquestioned. The Venezuelan southpaw, a Rule V gem who won two Cy Young Awards with the Twins, has a 3.39 FIP in the majors. He’s got over a K per inning during his career, and he topped the seven WAR mark each season from 2004-2006. Santana was “merely” a four-to-five win pitcher in 2007-2008, before elbow surgery to remove bone chips ended his ’09 season early and caused him to post 2.8 WAR.

On the surface, the 31-year-old’s 2010 season looks like vintage Santana — in 78.1 innings, he’s got a 2.76 ERA. But the process behind those results isn’t as impressive.

While the Queens version of Santana in ’08 and ’09 didn’t miss bats at the same rate as his halcyon days with the Twins, he still managed swinging strike rates in excess of 11 percent (8-9% MLB average) with an overall contact rate in the 77-78% range (80-81% MLB average). This season, Santana is getting swinging strikes 9.4%, with a contact rate right around the big league average.

As a result, Santana’s strikeout rate has declined — from 7.9 batters per nine innings in ’08 and ’09 to 6.55 K/9 in 2010. His walk rate has climbed somewhat as well (2.76 BB/9, from the 2.4-2.5 BB/9 range the previous two years), though not alarmingly so. Santana’s expected FIP (xFIP), derived from a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 4.48.

Now, that mark likely exaggerates the extent of Johan’s struggles. His BABIP is pretty low at .268, but Santana has generally posted lower-than average BABIP figures (.286 career). Santana gets a lot of fly balls (35.8 GB% in 2010, 37.8 GB% career), which have a lower BABIP than grounders. He induces a lot of weakly hit pop ups, with a 12.7% infield fly rate this year and a 13.2% mark for his career. Santana’s rate of stranding base runners (79.7%) is well above the 70-72% MLB average, but his career rate is 77.5%. It seems reasonable to suggest he’ll continue to have a LOB rate above the big league norm. Santana’s home run per fly ball rate (5.5%) almost assuredly will rise, though.

So, Santana hasn’t performed near as well as his ERA suggests, but probably not as poorly as his xFIP indicates. His falling K rate is worth examining further, however. The velocity on Santana’s four-seam fastball has declined again this season, as has the zip on his slider. But those aren’t the root causes for the reduced number of whiffs. Take a look at Santana’s whiff percentage by pitch over the 2008-2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site):

Perhaps as a result of hitters not anticipating it as much, Santana has actually gotten a higher whiff rate on his four-seamer. His two-seamer has a very low whiff percentage in 2010 after getting an above average number last season. That most glaring difference, however, is the whiff rate on the changeup. Santana’s signature change got a whiff 22.4% in ’08 and 17.4% in ’09, but just 13.6% this season (12.1% MLB average). That’s a substantial drop.

Though his ERA is pristine, Johan Santana really isn’t in the conversation anymore when it comes to the absolute best starters in the game. That doesn’t mean he’s done being a quality pitcher, but he’s not fooling hitters with the same regularity these days.

As soon as Jeff Karstens steps on the mound tonight, he’ll become the answer to a trivia question. That question, of course, asks who the opposing starter was when Stephen Strasburg made his big league debut.

It took two months, but the Nationals will finally turn the first overall pick in the 2009 draft loose on National League lineups this evening, starting with Karstens and the Pirates. He’s already owned in 87% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s no chance of making a shrewd waiver grab now, but you knew that already. Instead, let’s focus on what Strasburg could provide fantasy owners the rest of the season.

ZiPS projects 20 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a rather gaudy 113/36 K/BB ratio in 114 IP (h/t BBTF), putting him somewhere around a 3.66 FIP. Looking at (R) ZiPS for some perspective, that projection puts Strasburg on par with what pitchers like Josh Beckett (he’s hurt though), Jered Weaver, and Roy Oswalt are predicted to do the rest of the year, though with a few more strikeouts. That’s a pretty significant pickup in the middle of June, but we’ve always got to watch out for innings limits when it comes to young pitchers.

According to Adam Kilgore, the Nats’ plan is for their prized prospect to throw about 150-160 IP total this season, between the majors and minors. He’s already thrown 55.1 glorious frames in the minors (seriously, look at these numbers), so assuming the high end of Kilgore’s range, we’re looking at 104.2 IP from Strasburg the rest of the way. That’s basically two fewer starts than what ZiPS projects.

Chances are, those two missing starts will come in September, which is fantasy crunch time. I think we all expect the Nats to continue to fall out of the race, so there wouldn’t be much pressure to keep running Strasburg out there late in the year. Losing what should be one of your three best starters in the fantasy playoffs is a rather massive hit; it’s a little like Peyton Manning in fantasy football. You can’t win a championship with the guy because he’s always on the bench resting in Week 17.

Strasburg’s going to provide a ton of value through the summer, but make sure you keep an eye on his innings. Once he approaches 80 or so big league innings, it might not be the worst thing in the world to cut bait and trade him. Most trade deadlines are set in mid-August, which should give you plenty of time to see where his workload sits. You’ll presumably get a valuable piece in return, one that could help you more down the stretch than Strasburg on a leash would. If you’re in a keeper league, forget about this option obviously.

Strasburg should step right in and be a rock solid fantasy starter tonight, but there’s nothing wrong with using the hype to your benefit if you happen to own him. Start him all summer, and then when the Nats are ready to start taking it easy on him, deal him for something else of value.

Some low ownership starting pitchers coming to a rotation spot near you…

Dana Eveland | Pirates | 1% owned

Yeah, it is odd to talk about Eveland on a fantasy site considering that all of his pitching independent stats stink dating back to his 2.7 WAR season in 2008. The only reason I’m mentioning him is because he’s got a date with the lefty heavily and certifiably awful Indians later this week, so you’ve got a prime opportunity to steal a cheap win, or at least a few strikeouts and a possible ERA/WHIP boost come next weekend.

Tommy Hunter | Rangers | 3%

Hunter returned from a strained oblique just in time to replace the injured Derek Holland, and all he did was allow one run over nine innings of work against the Rays in his first start of the year on Saturday. He’s not going to set the world on fire with such a low strikeout rate ((R) ZiPS calls for a 5.03 FIP and 4.55 K/9 the rest of the way), but his next few starts come at home against the Mariners, at the Marlins, then at home against the Pirates and Astros. If you’re lagging behind some of the pitching categories, Hunter could give you a decent boost in an AL-only or deep mixed league.

Vin Mazzaro | Athletics | 0%

Brett Anderson’s injury isn’t quite the worst case scenario, but it’s pretty bad. His absence opens up a spot for Mazzaro, who’s been pretty dreadful in limited action so far. (R) ZiPS calls for a 5.45 ERA (4.72 FIP) with 5.45 K/9 that’s considerably worse than his 7.7 K/9 mark in over 125 IP at the Triple-A level. Mazzaro’s fastball-slider heavy approach is best suited for the bullpen, but like Eveland he gives you a chance at a cheap stats boost when he starts against the Giants in San Francisco next weekend.

Jonathon Niese | Mets | 3%

Oliver Perez is finally off the Mets’ active roster, though not in the way many had hoped. He’s currently on the DL with a case of suckitis knee tendinitis so suspicious that the league is investigating. His roster spot went to Niese, who returned from his second hamstring issue in as many seasons to hold the Marlins to one run over seven innings on Saturday.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 4.60 ERA (4.02 FIP) with 6.61 K/9 the rest of the way, but I love him as a matchup starter in the back of a fantasy staff. His home park certainly suppresses offense and he has no discernible platoon split, so a righty heavy lineup won’t kill him. Niese’s next two starts come at the Orioles and at the Indians, so he’s got that going for him. I’m a fan, especially in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

Adam Ottavino | Cardinals | 0%

Erik Manning called it, Brad Penny’s injury is going to require a lot more time off than just the 15 day DL stint, opening up a spot for Ottavino. His minor league track record suggests lots of walks (4.2 BB/9) but a decent amount of strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and groundballs (46.7% GB). Sticking with the theme of this post, Ottavino has a pair of favorable matchups coming up: at the hacktastic Diamondbacks and home against the A’s. In an NL-only or a deep mixed league, he could be a decent play the next two times out.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KCR – Zack Greinke
CHC – Carlos Silva
WAS – Stephen Strasburg
LAD – Hiroki Kuroda
BAL – Kevin Millwood
TOR – Brian Tallet
HOU – Brian Moehler
OAK – Vin Mazzaro
PIT – Jeff Karstens

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TOR – Shaun Marcum
OAK – Brett Anderson
CHC – Randy Wells
KCR – Kyle Davies
BAL – Brad Bergesen
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

Greinke is not pitching bad but has only a 1-7 record to show for it. While few expected him to match 2009’s output, neither did they expect a 3.60 ERA or a 4.27 xFIP. Still he has eight Quality Starts and a 1-3 record in those games.

Silva has more wins (7) this year than he had the past two years combined (5) with the Mariners. He is enjoying a career-high 6.29 K/9 and a career-low 1.10 WHIP. A 77.7 strand rate has led to a higher FIP but even that is a very nice 3.86, which is nearly identical to his xFIP.

Strasburg makes his long-awaited major league debut versus the Pirates and he already finds himself active in 61 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Strasburg went 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA in 11 minor league starts split between Double and Triple-A. He allowed 13 BB and notched 65 Ks in 55.1 IP.

Kuroda has allowed 11 R (8 ER) in his last 10 IP. Yet his ERA is virtually the same as it was his first two seasons in the U.S. The big difference is his WHIP. In 2010 Kuroda sports a 1.40 WHIP compared to 1.22 and 1.14 his first two seasons with the Dodgers.

Millwood has pitched better than his 0-6 record might lead you to believe. He has struggled with the gopher ball in his new home park in Camden Yards. Millwood has surrendered 9 HR at home compared to 5 HR on the road. But his home ERA is 3.28 and on the road he has a 5.11 ERA. This week he has home starts against the Yankees and Mets.

Tallet is back after missing six weeks with an injured forearm. His first start back he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings after posting a 6.11 ERA in his first three starts before hitting the DL.

Moehler is in his 14th season in the majors. He has appeared in 14 games this year with the Astros but has made just two starts. After getting roughed up in his first outing, in which he allowed 3 HR in 2.2 IP, Moehler allowed 2 ER in 5.1 IP last time out against the Nationals. This week he gets road starts against the Rockies and the Yankees.

Mazzaro has pitched out of the bullpen in his last three games but gets the call to start after picking up a win in his last relief outing. He has been homer prone, with a 19.0 HR/FB ratio in 2010. He faces the Angels and Giants, with the Angels being a good HR hitting team.

Karstens has appeared in 10 games and made four starts for the Pirates this year. He is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA as a starter compared to 0-0 with a 5.65 ERA pitching out of the pen. His K/9 rate is similar in both roles but Karstens has displayed much better control as a reliever. He has a 1.40 K/BB ratio as a starter and a 2.67 ratio as a reliever.

Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is a special talent. The Texas prep product, taken with the seventh pick in the 2006 draft, used his searing fastball and knee-buckling breaking stuff to whiff over 11 batters per nine innings in the minors. He reached L.A. at age 20, and has since K’d more batters per nine frames (9.4) than any starter not named Rich Harden, Tim Lincecum or Erik Bedard.

It seems like Kershaw’s already an ace — after posting a 4.26 ERA during his rookie season in 2008, he pared that mark down to 2.79 in 2009 and currently holds a 3.06 ERA in 2010. But has the prized young starter made the sort of marked progress suggested by his ERAs? I’m not so sure.

Kershaw’s contact and swinging strike rates have, without question, improved. Opponents made contact against him 79% in 2008, 77.1% in 2009 and have a 71.6% rate this season (80-81% MLB average). Kershaw’s swinging strike rate has shot up from 8.7% in ’08, 10% in ’09 and 12.1% in 2010 (8-9% MLB average). Consequently, his punch out rate has soared — 8.36 K/9 in ’08, 9.74 K/9 in ’09 and 10.19 this year.

But those extra swings and misses have come at a price. Kershaw’s walk rate has gone from 4.35 per nine in ’08, 4.79 BB/9 in ’09 and 5.35 BB/9 in 2010. Taking a look at his splits, it becomes apparent that Kershaw owns lefties, but his performance against right-handers lags behind:

His xFIP against lefties is 3.05 this season, and 2.07 for his career. Kershaw’s xFIP against right-handers is 4.74 this year and 4.60 for his career. Despite walking well over five righty batters per nine frames during his time in the majors, Kershaw hasn’t been hurt badly by opposite-handed hitters. Why? a minuscule home run per fly ball rate against righties — 1.8% this season, and 5.2% during his career.

Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site shows that Kershaw’s arsenal blows away same-handed batters, but he’s mortal against righties:

He still gets a healthy numbers of whiffs with the fastball against righties, but obviously nowhere near the stratospheric rate against lefties. Kershaw’s strike percentage dips a bit as well, but not tremendously so. The big change is that he swaps some sliders for curveballs against righties. That low-70’s deuce, once dubbed “Public Enemy Number One,” is rarely thrown for a strike and isn’t getting many swings and misses. Kershaw’s changeup has never been a big component of his repertoire, but he’s throwing it to righties even less this season — 2.1%, compared to 5.1% last season.

As a rookie, Kershaw’s xFIP (3.96) outpaced his ERA (4.26). Since then, it’s been the opposite. He had a 3.90 xFIP in 2009 (2.79 ERA) and has a 4.26 xFIP in 2010 (3.06 ERA). He does seem to pitch well from the stretch (career 76.8 LOB%, compared to the 70-72% MLB average), and better pitchers (particularly high-K pitchers) will tend to post higher strand rates.

However, as mentioned earlier in the look at Kershaw’s splits, the main reason for the ERA/xFIP dichotomy is an extremely low HR/FB rate — Clayton had an 11.6 HR/FB% in ’08 (right around the MLB average), but that mark fell to 4.1% last year and is 3.9% in 2010. Color me skeptical that he’ll continue to give up homers on fly balls at a clip that’s less than 40% of the big league average. It’s likely that opposing batters will find the bleachers with greater frequency in the months to come.

None of this is to disparage Clayton Kershaw — he’s still younger than some of the guys who will get drafted tomorrow evening, yet he has already established himself as a quality major league starting pitcher. Given Kershaw’s skills, it’s entirely possible that he makes improvements in his game and tames his wildness against right-handers. But, at the present moment, he’s still an unrefined talent with some blemishes to his approach. He’s very good — I just don’t think he’s great yet. Short of gains being made with his control, Kershaw’s ERA may be closer to four than three from here on out.

George Kottaras, Brewers (Owned in 1% of Yahoo Leagues)

With Gregg Zaun (torn labrum) possibly done for the season, Kottaras is drawing the bulk of starting assignments behind the dish for Milwaukee.

The former Padres and Red Sox prospect owns a career .269/.367/.444 line in the minor leagues, including a .239/.331/.424 showing in Triple-A. Kottaras, 27, displayed good patience (13.3 BB%) and pop (.175 ISO) on the farm as a backstop, but he was often panned for his lack of defensive prowess — Sean Smith’s Total Zone system rates Kottaras as 18 runs below average during his minor league tenure.

Milwaukee is apparently willing to stomach Kottaras’ adventurous D in exchange for his bat, and with a strong showing in 2010, the lefty batter now has a .230/.353/.443 line and a .350 wOBA in 215 career major league plate appearances. Kottaras has rarely gotten himself out, swinging at just 15.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25-27% MLB average recently).

Kottaras will have to contend with prospect Jonathan Lucroy for playing time, but he’s worth a roster spot if he continues to get penciled into the lineup. ZiPS projects a .237/.341/.412 triple-slash for the rest of the year, with a .338 wOBA.

Kris Medlen, Braves (10%)

Eno Sarris mentioned the 24-year-old as a potential steal last month, and since then, Medlen has continued to deal.

A 10th-round pick out of Santa Ana Junior College in the 2006 draft, Medlen murderized minor league batters, first as a reliever and then out of the starting rotation. In 227 total innings (79 ‘pen appearances, 23 starts), the 5-10, 190 pound righty punched out 10.4 batters per nine innings, issuing just 2 BB/9.

In the majors, Medlen has 8.38 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and a 3.69 xFIP in 116 innings (46 relief stints, nine starts). In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America said that the converted shortstop featured a 92-94 MPH fastball and a plus curveball that reached the high-80’s, as well as a solid slider and changeup. His repertoire in the big leagues has looked decidedly different: Medlen’s sitting about 90 MPH with his heater, relying heavily upon an 81 MPH changeup while adding in some high-70’s curves.

That might not scream “power pitcher,” and Medlen has predictably whiffed fewer batters as a starter. But, according to Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site, Medlen hasn’t lost zip on his fastball while facing lineups multiple times, and he’s doing an outstanding job of locating the fastball, change and curve for strikes.

Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have played .500 ball to this point and have a run differential (negative 26) that suggests they’ve been lucky to break even, you can’t blame Jered Weaver. The 27-year-old righty, selected out of Long Beach State with the 12th pick in the 2004 draft, is turning in the best season of his major league career.

In 75.2 innings pitched, Weaver boasts a 3.40 expected FIP (xFIP) that places him sixth in the American League among starters tossing at least 50 frames. Weaver is displaying customarily sharp control, issuing 2.5 free passes per nine innings and getting ahead in the count with a 60.1 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). But the biggest reason for his lights-out pitching is a large increase in whiffs.

Weaver is getting swinging strikes 11.3% of the time in 2010, well above his career 9.4% mark and the 8-9% big league average. His overall contact rate is 75.1%, besting his 78.8% career clip and the 80-81% MLB average. On a related note, Weaver is getting hitters to expand their zones more often, with a 31.6 Outside Swing% (27.3% career average, 25-27% MLB average in recent years).

Consequently, Weaver’s K rate has climbed:

Heading into 2010, Weaver had 7.32 K/9 during his career. CHONE predicted 7.25 K/9 for him this year, and ZiPS 7.1 K/9. After an eight punch out performance against the Royals yesterday, Weaver now has 9.87 K/9 on the season. That’s second among AL starters, behind only Toronto’s Brandon Morrow. But Weaver has actually K’d more on a per-plate appearance basis: Jered has a 27.1 K%/PA, compared to 26.1% for the control-challenged Morrow (those extra free passes extend the inning and give him more chances to whiff batters).

So, is Weaver doing anything different this year? Here’s his pitch selection over the 2009 and 2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site):

Jered’s four-seamer is a tick quicker, and his whiff rate with the pitch has gone from below the six percent big league average to a robust 9.3%. He has added a two-seamer to his repertoire, which may help explain his (relative) rise in ground balls (37.8 GB%, compared to a career 32.9 GB%). The whiff rate on his slider has increased considerably (from 12.2% to 17.3%), though his curve’s rate of whiffs has declined (12.7% in ’09 and 9.3% this year).

Weaver hasn’t thrown his changeup as much this season, but when he does, he’s still getting a ton of swings and whiffs. The relative difference in velocity between his four-seam fastball and change has increased — there was an 8.3 MPH gap in ’09, but an 11.6 MPH split in 2010.

There’s also a change in terms of the relationship of horizontal movement between the two pitches. In 2009, Weaver’s four-seamer had 3.3 inches of movement in on the hands of right-handed batters, while his change had 5.7 inches of movement away from lefty batters (a 2.4 inch difference). In 2010, Weaver’s four-seamer has 1.4 inches of horizontal movement, and his change has 6.8 inches (5.4 inch difference). For reference, the average difference in horizontal movement between four-seamers and changeups (per Somers’ site) is about half an inch.

Perhaps that big gap in movement, coupled with the introduction of the two-seamer (which has similar horizontal movement as the change), is flummoxing hitters. According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Weaver’s fastball/change combo is faring better than ever: his fastball has been worth +0.64 runs per 100 pitches thrown (+0.07 runs/100 career) and his changeup has been +2.79 per 100 tosses (+1.38 career).

Is Weaver’s increased K rate to be believed? To an extent. Strikeout rate per plate appearance for pitchers tends to become reliable around 150 batters faced, and Weaver has taken on 306 hitters so far this season.

The change is Weaver’s whiffs is reflected in his rest-of-season ZiPS projection — the ROS ZiPS are so helpful because they incorporate a player’s performance during the current season, giving us a more accurate reflection of his talents. ZiPS projects Weaver for about 7.8 K/9 for the rest of 2010, compared to the system’s 7.1 K/9 pre-season forecast. While Weaver isn’t likely to keep whiffing well over a batter per inning, his increase in K’s should not be written off as a total fluke. Odds are, he’ll keep some of the gains that he has made.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Johnny Cueto – He cleaned up in May (4-0, 3.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 33 IP) but struggled in his first June start. Overall, his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 4.09 ERA. Cueto has been above average in both Ks and WHIP and should be in everyone’s starting lineup with his two home games this week. He gets the Giants and Royals, two teams below average in runs scored, at the Great American Ball Park, where Cueto has a 3.19 ERA this season.

Edwin Jackson – In three of his last four starts, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start. But each of those QS were on the road and Jackson has two home starts this week. In Chase Field, he has a 5.44 ERA and has been prone to the gopher ball, having allowed eight of his 10 HR at home. While Atlanta is not a big HR team, St. Louis is above average and the Cardinals have done most of their damage on the road, where they have hit 32 of their 50 HR this season. The Cardinals game has potential for disaster, so leave Jackson inactive if you have other options.

Colby Lewis – After posting a 2.76 ERA in April, Lewis fell to a 4.11 mark in May and allowed 4 ER in 6.1 IP in his first June outing. Lewis’ success is due to his slider but he faces the Mariners, whose sparkplugs Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins both do well against the pitch, and the Brewers, who have two of the best slider hitters in Casey McGehee and Prince Fielder. The combination of struggling pitcher and bad matchups make Lewis a player to stash on your bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – This season has been a struggle for Matsuzaka because he puts too many runners on base and has been unlucky with his strand rate. He did not allow a walk in his last outing, a game where he notched 7 Ks and picked up the win. Matsuzaka squares off against the Indians and Phillies, two teams that are essentially league-average in walks. With the Red Sox having scored 72 runs in their last 12 games, if Matsuzaka can keep from walking the ball park he has a good shot to pick up Wins this week.

Kevin Slowey – With his last two outings, Slowey broke a streak of six consecutive starts where he failed to complete six innings. He combined for 13.2 IP in his last two games and allowed just 2 ER and 2 BB. Slowey gets two home starts this week. He has a good ERA at Target Field (3.79) despite trouble with the gopher ball. Slowey has allowed six of his eight HR at home. But both the Royals and the Braves are below average in hitting HR, so make sure Slowey gets the start this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Weaver, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Lee, Gallardo, Cain, Hughes, Hamels, Haren, Pelfrey, Niemann, Marcum, Zito, Lilly, Lowe, Kazmir, Sheets, B. Anderson, Richard, Carmona, Wells, Floyd, W. Rodriguez, Francis, Medlen, Feldman, Galarraga, Volstad, LeBlanc, Hammel, Kendrick, Davies, Wakefield, Bergesen, Monasterios, Eveland, Huff, LeCure.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Eight pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.364 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.69 ERA, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Harang – Advised to start. 2 W, 7 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP (2)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. 8Ks, 4.77 ERA, 1.412 WHIP (2)
Leake – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 0.68 ERA, 1.575 WHIP (2)