Archive for Starting Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

John Ely – After three rough outings in the middle of June, the concern was that the league figured out Ely. But he has rebounded with two strong starts of 7 IP, 1 ER each with 11 Ks in 14 IP. Overall he has a 3.62 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that support those numbers. Make sure he is active for his home starts against the Marlins and Cubs this week.

Gavin Floyd – All year long Floyd’s peripherals have been better than his results. And in his last five games, Floyd has pitched very well, although he does not have the Wins to prove it. He is 1-1 in that stretch but with a 1.26 ERA with 7 BB and 33 Ks in 35.2 IP. Floyd has favorable matchups this week with two home starts, one against the struggling Scott Kazmir and the other against Anthony Lerew and the Royals. He needs to be in the lineup.

Derek Lowe – Seven times this season, Lowe has received six or more runs from the Braves offense, which explains how a pitcher with a 4.53 ERA has 9 W at the beginning of June. While Lowe has pitched much better since mid-May, he still has a 5.09 road ERA and this week has starts in Philadelphia and in New York. Put him on the bench this week if you have other options.

Wandy Rodriguez – 2010 got off to a rough start for Rodriguez and then a five game stretch starting in late May it turned even worse. In that span, he went 1-4 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.100 WHIP. But Rodriguez has seemingly turned it around by allowing just 1 ER in his last 13 IP and has picked up Wins in his past two starts. Even while struggling, Rodriguez’ ERA at home is 1.17 runs lower, thanks to keeping the ball in the park. With home starts this week against the Pirates and Jeff Suppan and the Cardinals, look for Rodriguez to continue his strong pitching of late.

C.J. Wilson – He has pitched well both at home and on the road this year but Wilson has notched five of his six wins in Texas and he has a 6.98 K/9 in his home park. This week he is home against last-place Cleveland and last-place Baltimore, so Wilson needs to be in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Halladay, Weaver, F.Hernandez, Hamels, Peavy, Niemann, Pelfrey, Vazquez, Garza, Silva, J. Sanchez, Richard, Kazmir, Sheets, Matsuzaka, Slowey, Wolf, Kennedy, Bumgarmer, Harang, Francis, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Galarraga, Padilla, Volstad, Millwood, Arrieta, Bush, Robertson, Bannister, Lincoln, Volquez, Suppan, Laffey, Litsch, Rowland-Smith, Beltre, Enright, Martin.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Davis – Advised to sit. 3.09 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.371 WHIP (2 starts)
G. Gonzalez – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.69 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Moyer – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.600 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 5.06 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.594 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. W, 2.25 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Atlanta Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson came into the 2010 season as a prized fantasy pick. Standing 6-6 and weighing 220 pounds, Hanson used low-90’s heat and a pair of plus breaking pitches to torture minor league hitters. The 22nd-round draft-and-follow selection from the 2005 draft punched out 10.7 batters per nine innings as a prospect, walking 3.1 per nine and compiling a 3.26 FIP. He then impressed as a rookie last season, posting a 2.89 ERA in 127.2 frames following an early June call-up. Hanson, according to KFFL, had a pre-season ADP of 64.

It seems disappointing, then, that the 23-year-old currently sports a 4.50 ERA in 90 innings pitched. Following two especially rough starts against the White Sox and the Tigers, a small number of angst-ridden owners have actually severed ties altogether — Hanson’s Yahoo ownership rate is 94 percent. What’s ailing Atlanta’s would-be ace? Nothing, really. He’s the same extremely talented, if rough-around-the-edges starter that garnered praise last season.

In 2009, Hanson had 8.18 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate. This season, he’s getting more K’s (exactly one whiff per inning), walking 3.1 per nine innings and has a 37.8% rate of grounders. Hanson got swinging strikes 9.6% as a rookie (8.6% MLB average), and 9.5% during his sophomore season (8.3% MLB average). His contact rate is a bit higher — 77.2% in ’09 compared to 78.9% this season (80-81% MLB average), and he’s getting fewer first-pitch strikes (63.4% last year and 61.2% in 2010), though that’s still well above the 58-59% MLB average. Hanson’s xFIP is 4.11 this year, after he posted a 4.03 xFIP in 2009.

The main reasons for the wide disparity in Hanson’s ERA over the 2009 and 2010 seasons are his BABIP and strand rate. Last season, Hanson had a .280 BABIP. That’s not ridiculously low, given that he’s a pitcher who gives up a high proportion of fly balls. Fly balls, while far more harmful overall than grounders, have a lower BABIP than worm burners. In 2010, Hanson has been victimized by a .347 BABIP. That’s going to come down significantly — Hanson’s rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .292 BABIP.

His rate of leaving runners on base was very high last year (80.3%) and has declined to 69.8%. With runners on base in 2009, Hanson had 6.75 K/9, 4.22 BB/9 and a 4.81 xFIP, but he managed to avoid trouble due to a .230 BABIP. This year, he’s got 7.32 K/9, 3.66 BB/9 and a 4.63 xFIP, but his BABIP with men on has spiked to .342. Odds are, Hanson’s LOB rate remains closer to his current mark than that lofty ’09 figure, perhaps climbing to the low-seventies.

In both 2009 and 2010, Hanson has posted home run per fly ball rates well below the 11% MLB average — 6.9% last season, and 6.4% in his second go-around the majors. Turner Field did suppress home runs per fly ball hit by five percent over the 2006-2009 seasons, so it’s reasonable to expect his HR/FB rate to be slightly under the big league average. But he’s likely going to serve up more homers during the second half.

For the rest of 2010, I’d expect Hanson’s BABIP to greatly decline, his HR/FB to rise and his rate of stranding runners to remain close to where it currently is. He doesn’t have the skill-set of a sub-three’s ERA pitcher (who does?), but he’s also better than that 4.50 ERA indicates. At 23, with basically a season’s worth of innings under his oft-adjusted belt, Hanson’s pitching like a high-three’s-to-low-four’s ERA starter. That’s impressive, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him improve upon that level of performance as he gains more experience.

Arizona Diamondbacks purchased the contract of RHP Barry Enright from Double-A Mobile.

A second-round pick in the 2007 draft, Enright will make his major league debut this afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals. Edwin Jackson was originally scheduled to start, but he was pushed back to Friday following his 149-pitch, eight-walk no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 25th.

Speaking of walks, Enright basically refuses to issue them. The Pepperdine University product handed out 1.6 free passes per nine innings in college. Enright’s plus control endeared him to scouts, compensating in part for his modest stuff. Here’s how Baseball America described Enright at the time that the D-Backs popped him with the 73rd overall pick:

On a good day, Enright touches 90-92 mph with his fastball, but he pitches in the 87-89 range, and none of his secondary pitches–slider, curveball or changeup–excites scouts either…He improved his feel for pitching steadily through his college career and firmed up his body. His stuff, strike-throwing and bulldog nature profile him best as a middle reliever, but he’ll get a chance in the back of a professional rotation.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander made his full-season debut in 2008. Pitching in the High-A California league, Enright struck out 7.83 batters per nine frames, walked 1.92 per nine and posted a 3.52 FIP in 164.1 innings. His ERA (4.44) was considerably higher than his FIP, as Enright suffered from a .344 batting average on balls in play. BA named Enright the 11th-best prospect in Arizona’s system following the season, saying that he had a chance to be a back-end starter but also that his margin for error was thin.

In 2009, Enright moved up to the Double-A Southern League. His K rate took a hit (5.94 K/9), while he continued to be stingy with the walks (2.13 BB/9). Enright’s FIP in 156 innings was an even four. His prospect status took a hit — Arizona’s farm system did receive a big infusion of talent in the 2009 draft (Bobby Borchering, Matt Davidson, A.J. Pollock, Chris Owings, Marc Krauss and Mike Belfiore, among others), but Enright fell of the D-Backs’ top 30 list entirely.

The 24-year-old opened 2010 back at Mobile. In his second go-around the Southern League, Enright whiffed eight hitters per nine innings, walked 1.4 and had a FIP around 3.6 in 93.2 innings pitched. His ground ball rate did decline — Enright had a 42.8 GB% in ’08 and a 42.7 GB% in ’09, but he got batters to smack the ball into the grass 38.1% of the time in 2010.

What can we expect from Enright in the majors? According to Minor League Splits, Barry’s pitching with the Bay Bears in 2009 translated to a 5.38 major league FIP, with 4.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. His 2010 pitching equates to 5.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9 and a 4.48 FIP at the highest level. Before the season, ZiPS projected 4.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9 and a 5.06 FIP, while CHONE thought he’d get battered for a 5.73 FIP, with 5.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 1.8 dingers per nine innings.

Enright might be up for just one start, but mere competence today against the Red Birds could put him in line for a more prominent role. Dontrelle Willis, picked up from the Tigers for RHP Billy Buckner in early June, has a 12/27 K/BB ratio as a Diamondback. The formerly famous lefty has thrown 98.1 innings since the beginning of the 2009 season, and he’s got 5.69 K/9, 7.71 BB/9 and a 5.83 xFIP. It’s near impossible to make the case that he’s a major league-quality pitcher at this point.

With excellent control and quality secondary stuff, Enright has a chance to stick at the back of a big league rotation. But, with limited ability to fool hitters and fly balls tendencies, he’s hardly a sure bet to be a contributor in fantasy leagues. Pitching in a park that inflated run-scoring by 15 percent and home runs by seven percent over the past three years (per the Bill James Handbook) won’t help, either. Enright might have some value to the D-Backs, but should only be an option for pitching-starved NL-only owners.

Updates on four rotation spots, all in the NL…

Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 87% owned

Just off a groin strain induced DL stint, Billingsley comes back just in time to face the Giants in San Francisco tonight. He was dealing with some bad BABIP (.332) and strand rate (69.2%) luck prior to going on the shelf, but (R) ZiPS projects a 3.41 ERA (3.38 FIP) with just shy of a strikeout per inning the rest of the way. After tonight, he lines up to start in Arizona and at home against the Cubs before All Star break.

Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 8%

The allure of top prospects can be too much to pass up at times. Bumgarner’s velocity mysteriously disappeared last season and really hasn’t returned yet, and to no surprise he’s yet to return to the 9.00 K/9 range once predicted for him. He held his own against the Red Sox in a losing cause yesterday (7 IP, 4 ER), but it’s hard to predict anything more than a mid-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way unless he bumps up the 6.4 K/9 he showed in Triple-A this season. His three starts before the break come at the Rockies, at Milwaukee, and at the Nationals.

Tom Gorzelanny | Cubs | 4%

Not only is Carlos Zambrano suspended indefinitely, but he’s headed back to the bullpen whenever he does return. Gorzelanny has pitched surprisingly well this season after some ugly years in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.41 ERA (3.82 xFIP) with more than a strikeout per inning. (R) ZiPS unsurprisingly sees a slight step back the rest of the way, but there’s no shame in having a 4.33 ERA (4.02 FIP), 7.75 K/9 pitcher on your staff. Gorz’s final three starts before the break comes against his former team, then at the D-Backs and at the Dodgers.

Bud Norris | Astros | 3%

Norris hit the DL with some biceps tendinitis, but returns to face the Brew Crew in Milwaukee tonight. His ERA was an unsightly 6.80 before the injury, but his peripherals were stellar: 4.03 xFIP, 11.13 K/9. Once his .400 BABIP and 58.9% LOB% regress back to normalcy, you’d got yourself a rock solid fantasy starter, albeit without many wins. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.83 ERA (4.25 FIP), 8.61 K/9 the rest of the way, and after tonight he’ll start in San Diego and at home against the Cardinals before the break.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 13. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Dallas Braden – Since pitching his perfect game, Braden is 0-5 with a 1.417 WHIP. In his last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in 17.2 IP. Leave him on the bench for his two road starts.

Jason Hammel – Upon being activated from the disabled list in mid-May, Hammel is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA. While he has not pitched well on the road this season, he does get a start in Petco to go along with his home outing against the Giants. Ride the hot hand and make sure Hammel is in the lineup.

Ted Lilly – The Cubs lefty has hurled a Quality Start in eight of his last nine outings. He also has 30 Ks in his last 35 IP, so the Ks are coming back, too. With two home starts, including one against the Pirates, Lilly needs to be in your lineup this week.

Brandon Morrow – Wherever he pitches, Morrow piles up the strikeouts, with a 9.86 K/9. But he has not been a road warrior in 2010. Morrow is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.848 WHIP away from Toronto. It’s tough to pass up the possibility of 15+ Ks, but that ERA and WHIP are potential staff killers. Deactivate Morrow this week if you can.

Joel Pineiro – In his last four games, Pineiro is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He also is doing nice in strikeouts, with 22 Ks in 30.1 IP over that span. Activate him for his two home starts this week

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Jimenez, Wainwright, Carpenter, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Strasburg, Liriano, Hughes, Haren, Hudson, Romero, Zito, Shields, Cueto, Leake, Nolasco, Buehrle, Carmona, Myers, Dickey, Billingsley, Bonderman, Takahashi, Matusz, Blanton, LeBlanc, Wells, Feldman, Correia, Kendrick, Blackburn, Parra, Westbrook, Maholm, LeRew, Norris, Karstens, Stammen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2 starts)
Marcum – Advised to sit. W, 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Masterson – Advised to start. 5.54 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.385 WHIP (2)
J. Sanchez – Advised to start. W, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.645 WHIP (2)
Wilson – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)

Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.

Scott Feldman has undergone some drastic transformations during the course of his pro career. Texas’ 30th round pick in the 2003 draft was a nondescript reliever on the mend from Tommy John surgery when Orel Hershiser suggested a sidearm delivery in the spring of 2005. After bouncing between Triple-A Oklahoma and Arlington over the ’05 to ’07 seasons, getting lots of grounders out of the ‘pen but struggling to locate at the big league level, Feldman switched to a three-quarters delivery and moved to the starting rotation in 2008.

The results weren’t pretty (a 5.29 ERA in 151.1 innings), but Feldman showed considerable improvement in 2009 while going to a cutter to keep lefty batters from taking him to the woodshed. His ERA dropped to 4.08. The Rangers signed the mop-up man-turned-starter through his arbitration years this past winter, with an option for his first free agent season in 2013.

So far, it looks as though Feldman has turned back into a pumpkin. Tossing 89.2 innings, the 27-year-old righty holds a gruesome 5.32 ERA. What has changed between Feldman’s 2009 breakout and 2010 beat down? Very little, actually.

Last year, Feldman had 5.36 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9 in 189.2 innings. This season, he’s whiffing 5.82 batters per nine and issuing 2.91 BB/9. He induced ground balls 46.8% in ’09, and 44.2% in 2010. There’s nothing dramatically different here — a few more whiffs and a few less worm killers.

Same story with Feldman’s plate discipline stats. His swinging strike rate was 6.5% in 2009, and is 6.4% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average). Feldman got a first pitch strike 57.5% last season, and is getting ahead of the hitter 58.9% this year (58% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 84.6% in ’09, is 85.7% in 2010 (81% MLB average). In terms of getting swings on pitches out of the zone, Feldman’s doing a slightly better job this season — his O-Swing was 25% in 2009 (25.1% MLB average that year) and is 29.8% in 2010 (28.3% MLB average).

Feldman’s pitch selection is a bit different (more mid-70’s curves in place of 90-91 MPH fastballs), but the results between his ’09 and ’10 seasons are strikingly similar. Why, then, has his ERA soared more than a Vlad Guerrero home run?

Last season, Feldman benefited from a .276 BABIP. In 2010, balls put in play against him are falling for hits at an absurd clip — his BABIP is .352, trailing only Zach Duke and Randy Wells among qualified big league starters. Also, Feldman’s strand rate has slipped. After leaving 72.8% of base runners high and dry in ’09, his LOB rate is down to 64% this year (70-72% MLB average). He’s not pitching worse with men on base:

Feldman with runners on base

2009: 4.48 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 4.66 xFIP, .252 BABIP
2010: 5.89 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 4.50 xFIP, .338 BABIP

Truth be told, Feldman is neither the rotation stalwart that his shiny 17-win total from 2009 suggests, nor the bust that his 2010 ERA implies. Both seasons, he has been a passable starter — Feldman’s xFIP was 4.49 last season, and is 4.58 in 2010. Despite the wild fluctuations in his surface stats, Feldman’s the same pitcher he was last year.

Tampa Bay Rays righty James Shields is seemingly turning in a mediocre performance in 2010. The 28-year-old owns a 6-7 record and has a middling 4.55 ERA, a combination that has led 11 percent on Yahoo fantasy players to pull the plug on the changeup artist. Is Shields struggling? Not really. But how bullish you are on his numbers improving depends upon your ERA estimator of choice.

In 99 innings pitched, Tampa’s 16th round pick in the 2000 draft has 8.36 K/9, 2 BB/9 and a 42.3% ground ball rate. That K rate is well above his career average of 7.29 K/9, while he’s basically matching his career totals in terms of walks and worm burners (1.94 BB/9 and 43.5 GB%, respectively).

Not much has changed in terms of his pitch selection or plate discipline stats. Shields is still leaping ahead in the count, getting first pitch strikes 61% of the time (60.4% career average, 58% MLB average). His contact rates aren’t drastically different, though he’s actually getting slightly fewer whiffs than normal — his swinging strike rate is 9.1% (10% career average, 8-8.5% MLB average) and his contact rate is 81% (78.8% career average, 81% MLB average). The cause of Shields’ increased K rate isn’t whiffs, but called strikes — his called strike percentage is 17.8% this season, compared to 16.7-17% over the past few years (17% MLB average). Called Strike% has a lower correlation with K rate than swinging strike rate, so it seems likely that Shields punch out rate comes back toward his career average (7.29 per nine). Zips projects 7.23 K/9 for the rest of 2010.

No huge, negative changes to this point. So, why the run-of-the-mill ERA for Shields? For one, he’s got a .339 BABIP this season, compared to a .310 career average. Opponents have hit a good deal of line drives against Shields this season — 21.5% (the MLB average is 18.9%, according to StatCorner). Two interpretations of that number come to mind.

On one hand, line drives falls for hits on balls in play more than 73 percent of the time, so that certainly contributes to the higher-than-usual BABIP. On the other hand, line drive rate is a rather volatile stat, and Shields’ career 19 LD% is right around the big league average. That suggests batters don’t typically scorch the ball against him. If his line drive rate comes back toward that career rate, his BABIP should fall. Shields has also allowed home runs on fly balls hit 14.4% time, well above his career 11.5% figure and the 11% MLB average.

Shields’ line drive and homer rate help explain the dichotomy between his tERA and xFIP. His tERA (tRA put on the same scale as ERA), is 4.43. tERA assigns an average run value to batted ball outcomes like line drives, ground balls, outfield fly balls and infield fly balls, as well as run values for K’s, walks, HBP’s and home runs. Liners and home runs obviously have a high run value, so a pitcher giving up lots of them like Shields is going to get dinged. Meanwhile, his xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is actually a career-best 3.50. xFIP sees strong peripherals and poor luck on fly balls, and expects considerable improvement.

Personally, I’d take the middle ground between those two figures. It’s unlikely that Shields allows so many liners or homers per fly ball hit against him moving forward. But it’s also unlikely that he continues to punch out so many batters. ZiPS thinks he’ll split the middle, too, with a rest-of-season FIP of 3.91. Shields is well worth owning in all formats — if he’s on the wire, snag him and expect a high-three’s ERA for the rest of 2010.

With Rick Porcello demoted to Triple-A, the Tigers are turning to another young arm to fill his spot this week, 2009 second round pick Andy Oliver. You may or may not know about Oliver’s plight with the NCAA, which essentially disqualified him from playing at Oklahoma State after he used an agent to negotiate a contract with the Twins when they drafted him out of high school in 2006. All of that is behind him now, and just 14 starts into his professional career, he’s a big leaguer.

Aggressive promotions and the Tigers are nothing new. Aside from Porcello, remember that Justin Verlander make a pair of July starts in 2005, barely more than a year after they made him the second overall pick in the 2004 draft. He then joined the rotation full-time in 2006. Clearly, the team will not hesitate pushing a young player if they believe he’s the best option.

Baseball America rated Oliver as the team’s fourth best prospect coming into the season, noting that he pitches “at 92-94 mph and occasionally reaching the upper 90s,” but his array of secondary pitches (two-seamer, slider/cutter, curveball) all need work. Power lefties are a rare breed, hence the high draft selection and $1.495M signing bonus.

Assigned to Double-A to begin 2010, Oliver has has performed admirably in his young pro career, holding opponents to a .253 AVG against (lefties .242), striking out 8.1 men per nine and limiting the walks to just 2.9 per. MinorLeagueSplits.com has him at 39.3% ground balls, 16.3% line drives, 38.5% fly balls, and what strikes me as an absurdly high percentage of infield flies at 19.1%. Nothing too out of the ordinary there, a rock solid performance. If you want to nitpick, Oliver is perhaps giving up a few more homers (0.81 HR/9) than you’d like to see from a pitcher with his stuff and pedigree, but that’s not an awful rate.

The Tigers are marching him out there against the lefty heavy Braves on Friday, though they are a good fastball hitting team (0.59 wFB/C, fourth best in baseball). Chances are this is just a one or two start cameo, similar to Verlander half a decade ago, but I like the matchup this week. Granted, Atlanta looks as if they’ll never lose again, but they’ve never seen Oliver before and his stuff is good enough that smoke and mirrors won’t be needed. It’s a risky play, but the good news is that you have three more days to see what kind of shape your pitching is in before deciding whether to go for it or not. If you can risk some ERA and WHIP in favor of strikeouts and a possible win, then I see be bold and go for it.

It’s a relatively slow week for starting pitchers with fantasy value, though the Giants will skip Joe Martinez the next time through the rotation, pushing their big three up a day (all on normal rest). Here’s some other notes…

Carlos Carrasco & Aaron Laffey | Indians | both 0% owned

The Indians finally had enough of David Huff’s 6.40 ERA (5.70 xFIP), sending the southpaw down to Triple-A. They have yet to announce who will take his spot in the rotation, though they will announce the move before they start their series with the Phillies tomorrow. Carrasco and Laffey are the two obvious candidates.

Carrasco got his brains beat in for four starts after coming over in the Cliff Lee trade last year, though this season he’s been okay in Triple-A (4.29 ERA, ~4.50 FIP). Laffey was demoted earlier this year after a failed bullpen stint, though he’s walked 15 and struck out just nine in four Triple-A starts. Whoever Cleveland calls upon with start in Cincinnati Friday then against the Blue Jays early next week, and my best advice is to avoid both at all costs.

Vicente Padilla | Dodgers | 2%

The Dodgers welcomed back their Opening Day starter after he battled a nerve issue in his forearm for close to two months, and he promptly got smacked around by the Red Sox this weekend. (R) ZiPS is a little rough on Padilla, forecasting a 5.11 ERA (4.70 FIP) the rest of the way with an acceptable strikeout rate 6.57 K/9). I don’t think he’ll match the 3.20 ERA he posted with LA last year, but I can see him maintaining a low-to-mid-4.00’s mark with more than seven strikeouts per nine. His next two starts come against the Yankees (sit) and at the Giants (start), and he has value in NL-only leagues as long as you pick your spots.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 42%

Last year’s wunderkind hasn’t been able to repeat 2009’s success in 2010, earning him a demotion to Triple-A. The Tigers have yet to announce his replacement, calling up Triple-A closer Jay Sborz for bullpen depth for the time being. Detroit has plenty of options for that now vacant starting spot, including Enrique Gonzalez, Brad Thomas, and Eddie Bonine, none of which salivates your fantasy tongue. Whoever they call on with start at the molten hot Braves then at the Twins the next two times out, and they have no one to call up to make those starts viable fantasy options.

Ownership rates listed based on Yahoo! leagues.