Archive for Starting Pitchers

On Saturday night, Cincinnati Reds lefty Travis Wood nearly became the third starting pitcher to twirl a perfect game during the 2010 season (well, technically fourth, but let’s not beat a dead horse). The 23-year-old went toe-to-toe with Roy Halladay, who achieved perfection on May 29th against the Marlins. Wood punched out eight, walked none and surrendered just one hit (a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th) while going nine frames. Despite that superb effort, the Phillies prevailed in 11 innings.

Wood went to his fastball early and often — according to BrooksBaseball.net, he threw his 90 MPH four-seamer (topping out at 93 MPH) on 77 of his 109 pitches (71 percent), getting a strike with the pitch 71 percent of the time. He also mixed in some high-80’s cutters, low-80’s changeups and low-70’s curves. Overall, Wood threw strikes 68 percent of the time.

So, who is this guy, and what can we expect from him moving forward? Let’s take a closer look.

An Arkansas prep player, Wood was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 draft. The 5-11, 165 pound port sider had a strong college commitment to Arkansas, but Cincy persuaded him to turn pro for $600,000. Wood’s size and delivery (Baseball America said he had some recoil at the end) scared some scouts, but his fastball piqued their interest. Here’s part of BA’s scouting report from 2005:

Wood is a long-term project, albeit an intriguing one because there aren’t many lefthanders who can reach 95 mph. His fastball sat at 88-91 mph for much of the spring, but he started making more frequent forays into the mid-90s as the draft drew closer. Wood isn’t tall, but he generates his velocity with a quick arm and athleticism. Wood hasn’t shown much aptitude for spinning a breaking ball, and his curveball ranges from below-average to decent. For the most part, he just rears back and blows fastballs by inferior competition.

Wood made his debut that summer, putting hitters to shame in 48.2 innings split between the Rookie Level Pioneer and Gulf Coast leagues (12.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.29 FIP). In 2006, he moved up to the Low-A Midwest League and continued to miss lots of bats — 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 4.01 FIP in 140 frames. After the season, BA noted that his low-to-mid-90’s fastball from high school was largely absent (he sat 87-91 MPH), but his changeup had developed into a true weapon. His breaking ball, on the other hand, remained a work in progress.

Unfortunately, Wood wouldn’t get much of a chance to improve in 2007. Bothered by a sore shoulder, Wood saw his fastball velocity dip into the mid-80’s at times, generally sitting in the high-80’s. He logged just 46.1 innings in the High-A Florida State League, with 10.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.37 FIP. Baseball America, which rated him as the third-best prospect in the Reds’ system before 2006 and number six prior to 2007, dropped him down to 21st leading up to the 2008 campaign.

2008 did little to redeem his standing within the organization. Opening the season back in the FSL, Wood performed decently — he whiffed 7.9 per nine innings, walked 4.1 per nine and served up 0.4 HR/9. His FIP in 46.2 innings was 3.48, and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94. But a promotion to the Double-A Southern League proved difficult. His K rate declined (6.5 K/9), his walk rate ballooned to 5.4 BB/9 and he gave up a homer per nine frames. Wood’s ERA was a macabre 7.09 in 80 innings. While he wasn’t near that bad, a 4.92 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was nothing special. BA booted him off of Cincinnati’s top 30 list altogether.

Last year, the Reds sent him back to the Southern League. Wood responded with 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.15 HR/9 in 119 IP. His adjusted FIP was 3.98. Following a promotion to the Triple-A International League, Wood struck out 5.9 per nine, issued 3 BB/9 and had 0.7 HR/9. In 48.2 innings, his adjusted FIP was 4.23. Leading up to 2010, BA jumped Wood back up to seventh on the Reds’ list of top farm talents, saying that he remained healthy, regained his 88-91 MPH fastball velocity and added a cutter to his repertoire.

Back at Louisville this season, Wood thrived. Prior to his July 1st big league debut, Wood had 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.00 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in 98 IP. After last night’s masterpiece, he’s got a 17/5 K/BB in 20.2 MLB innings, with a 3.99 xFIP. It’s a very small sample, but hitters have chased Wood’s stuff out of the zone 34.3% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

Before you get too excited about a rookie starter zooming out of the game and nearly making history, it’s important to remember that Wood has long been regarded as more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation-type. BA mentioned that some scouts question his long-term durability, while John Sickels said Wood “looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff.” He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 41 GB%) who’ll make his home starts in a park that, according to the Bill James Handbook, increased home run production by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009.

Per Minor League Splits, Wood’s performance at Louisville this season equates to a 4.58 major league FIP, with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. CHONE’s rest-of-season-projection is similar — a 4.58 neutralized ERA, with 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Should Wood remain in the major league rotation, those forecasts look about right to me — near perfecto aside, he’s more of a serviceable big league arm than a future star.

On the surface, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto is busting out in 2010. The 24-year-old, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for a modest $3,500, dominated minor leagues hitters to the tune of 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a low-three’s FIP. Cueto rated as a top prospect on the basis of his sharp fastball/slider combo, and his major league ERA has fallen three seasons in a row — 4.81 in 2008, 4.41 in 2009 and a sparkling 3.42 this year. The sterling track record on the farm, the admiration he earned from scouts, the linear improvement in his MLB ERA — all of these signs point to a star emerging in Cincy.

I’m not sold, though. Take a look at some of Cueto key peripheral stats over the 2008-2010 seasons. I highlighted the most notable changes in, appropriately enough, red:

Cueto’s walk rate has fallen over the years, but his strikeout rate has declined considerably as well. He handed out a free pass to batters in 8.8% of their plate appearances in 2008, 8.2% in 2009 and 7.8% in 2010 (8.8% MLB average, according to Baseball-Reference). He’s doing a particularly good job of locating his 93 MPH fastball — According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cueto’s throwing the pitch for a strike 64.9% of the time this year (62-64% MLB average).

So, his control has gone from average to above-average. However, his SO/PA numbers have dropped a good deal — 20.6% in ’08, 17.8% in ’09 and 17% in ’10 (17.8% MLB average). Cueto has gotten in fewer 0-and-2 counts (24% in ’08, 19% in ’09 and 17% this year; the MLB average is 22%), and he’s struggling to put away batters when he gets into two-strike counts:

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 means that the pitcher is worse than most in that area. As you can see, Cueto has been between 23 and 37 percent worse than the average NL pitcher when he gets in two-strike counts.

In those two-strike situations, Cueto goes to his mid-80’s slider often:

Baseball America once dubbed that slider the best in the Reds’ system, but hitters haven’t been as impressed. Cueto’s breaking ball has been whiffed at just 10.4% of the time overall in 2010 (13.6% MLB average). He’s throwing the pitch for a strike 56% (63.4% MLB average). Cueto’s best whiff pitch, relative to the league average, is his fastball — 8.8% (the MLB average is 5-6%).

As Cueto’s expected FIP (xFIP) shows, the pared-down walk rate and lower punch out rate have essentially canceled each other out. His xFIP this season is over a run higher than his actual ERA. The main reasons that he’s got a pristine ERA and an ace-like win-loss record (8-2)? A very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. Chances are, Cueto won’t escape danger quite so adeptly in the second half of the season. He’s not pitching any better with men on base…

…and his HR/FB percentage is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers (Cueto’s career HR/FB% is 11.2). Cueto’s home, Great American Ballpark, actually increased homers per fly ball hit by 14 percent compared to a neutral venue over the period of 2006-2009. If Cueto had surrendered homers per fly ball hit at an average rate on the road (11 percent) and 12.5 percent at home (1.14 times the league average), he would have given up 16 home runs so far (1.3 HR/9) instead of his actual total of nine (0.73 HR/9).

Currently, Cueto throws his fastball for strikes and gets a solid number of whiffs with the pitch. However, his breaking ball lags behind, both in terms control and getting hitters to come up empty. It’s worth noting that he has gone to his changeup more often this season. It has been average in terms of strikes gotten (60.8%, 60.7% MLB average) but below-average in getting whiffs (11%, 12.6% MLB average). Right now, he doesn’t have a second pitch that can put away batters.

The purpose of this post is not to sharply criticize Johnny Cueto, or to suggest that he won’t reach ace status one day. The purpose is to point out that he’s not there yet. Fantasy players run the risk of falling prey to confirmation bias with a player like Cueto — he was supposed to be a star, and a quick glance at his numbers makes it seem as though he has reached that level. But, upon further inspection, Cueto’s still got work to do.

Chris Davis, Rangers (Owned in seven percent of Yahoo leagues)

Justin Smoak’s Seattle-bound, as the 2008 first-round pick is the prime player acquired by the M’s in the six-player deal sending Cliff Lee to Arlington. That clears the path to big league playing time for Davis, who’ll take over first base duties for the first-place Rangers. Is the third time a charm for Davis, or will his bat fall flat again?

Texas’ fifth-round pick in the ’06 draft has bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A Oklahoma City over the past two seasons. The Rangers handed him an everyday spot both years, but Davis’ hacking and contact issues led to demotions in July of ’09 and April of 2010. In the majors, the 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter has crushed the ball when he has gotten a hold of it — he’s got a .221 ISO in 792 career plate appearances, with 18.6% of his fly balls ending up in the cheap seats. His plate discipline, by contrast, has been putrid.

Davis has walked in just 6.2% of his PA, while whiffing 34.6%. His strike zone is huge — here are Davis’ outside swing percentages over the 2008-2010 seasons, divided by the MLB average that season:

2008: 1.47
2009: 1.35
2010: 1.15

Keep in mind that the 2010 figure is based on just 56 PA. Chasing so many pitches off the plate, Davis has often gotten behind in the count. His career first pitch strike percentage is 62.9, while the MLB average is 58-59%.

Contact has also been a big issue — Davis has connected 65.5% of the time that he pulls the trigger overall (81% MLB average), including 74.7% of the time he swings at an in-zone offering (88% MLB average). Over the past three calendar years, he’s got the third-lowest total contact rate and the second-lowest Z-contact rate in the majors (minimum 500 PA).

With plus pop but also a tendency to swing at anything from Lubbock to Houston, Davis has been a Mike Jacobs doppelganger to this point — his big league career triple-slash is .253/.301/.474, with a .330 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that’s two percent below average (98 wRC+). Happily, the 24-year-old has thumped pitchers with the RedHawks. In 293 PCL PA, Davis batted .354/.403/.555 (his career line in Triple-A is .341/.407/.571 in 614 PA). On the positive side, he hit for power (.201 ISO with Oklahoma City in 2010) and whiffed less than a quarter of the time (24.3 K%). However, that line was boosted by .434 BABIP, and he still wasn’t working many walks (7.8 BB%).

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Davis to bat .244/.297/.461. CHONE anticipates a .269/.319/.470 line. Davis’ ability to drive the ball makes him an intriguing add in AL-only leagues, but he’s going to have to tighten his strike zone to finally stick at the highest level.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (16%)

The 20-year-old lefty might not garner quite the same prospect praise these days — where once he cracked the mid-90’s with his fastball, Bumgarner now sits around 90 MPH. His secondary stuff (a low-80’s slider and changeup, as well as a low-70’s curve) remains a work in progress, too. That being said, he’s still worthy of consideration in NL-only formats.

Bumgarner burst on to the scene in 2008, using his high-octane heat to post rates of 10.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP in 141.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Bumgarner’s park-and-lucked adjusted FIP in the Low-A South Atlantic League was 2.99. With his velocity on the wane in 2009, the North Carolina prep product’s K rate took a tumble — in 131.1 innings spent mostly in the Double-A Eastern League (he opened the year in the High-A Cal League), Bumgarner had 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted 4.42 FIP.

He got a late-season cameo with the Giants, but Bumgarner opened 2010 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Logging 82.2 innings, the 6-4, 215 pound southpaw punched out 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 2.4 per nine and had a 4.31 park-and-luck adjusted FIP. Madison has made three starts for San Fran so far, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and a 4.19 xFIP in 22 IP.

Any owner considering a Bumgarner pick up will need to keep his workload in mind — he has thrown 104.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2010, just 37 frames away from his previous career high established in the Sally League in ’08. The Giants could occasionally skip him or push his starts back. ZiPS thinks he’ll be useful when he does take the mound (5.94 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 4.01 FIP). CHONE is less sanguine — a 4.98 neutralized ERA, with 6.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Perhaps Bumgarner isn’t, at least at the moment, the power pitcher we anticipated. But he still could be an above-average MLB starter.

We’ve dissected the Cliff Lee deal like it’s already done, and from both sides of the deal, so let’s continue on in that vein and look at the pitcher that the Mariners are most likely to call up to replace Lee as early as tonight in Seattle. Even if it’s not the Yankees, the Mariners look like they want to trade Lee before the All-Star break to get the most possible value, so Pineda should be up soon.

The green and gray certainly hope that Michael Pineda day doesn’t end up pinata-like, but by all accounts it should be more of a commencement than a trial by fire. The 21-year-old came into the season as the fifth-best Mariner’s prospect by resident maven Marc Hulet’s standards. Here’s what he said at the time:

A beast on the mound at 6’5” 250 lbs, Pineda was let down by his elbow in ’09 as his season was interrupted in mid-May and he did not return until August. The elbow soreness that he experienced is cause for concern going forward, but the right-hander has a bright future ahead of him if he can put the issue behind him. Just 20 in ’09, Pineda posted a 2.73 FIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) in high-A despite playing in a good hitter’s league. He allowed just 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work and showed outstanding control for his age with a walk rate of 1.22 BB/9. His low-90s fastball and good (but inconsistent) slider helped him post a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9. It will be interesting to see if the organization returns Pineda to high-A in 2010 or pushes him to double-A.

What happened this year is exactly what Mariners fans hoped for and Hulet pointed to as his most important chore this year: Pineda proved he was healthy by not only dominating Double-A on his second attempt (9.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), but by also mowing down Triple-A hitters after a promotion (12.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). He looks ready to go.

In fact, looking at his career numbers (8.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), it might be tempting to label him a control artist with okay stuff, but it has been his work at the higher levels, and this year, which has pushed him into elite territory as a prospect. If the rankings were to come out today, he might just be first, if only because his lowest strikeout rate above Double-A was this year’s 9.1 at Double-A.

As for how he might fare in the bigs, there are two minor pink flags to consider. First, Pineda did have the elbow injury last year, so he didn’t accrue many innings, and only put up 138.1 innings combined in 2008. He’s already at 96 innings this year, and 120% of 138.1 is 165. Even if this is no hard cap on his innings, it’s reasonable to assume that he won’t put in another 100 innings in the second half and will have his innings limited at some point.

The other minor flaw in his repertoire has been the slight tendency towards fly balls as he’s risen in the minor leagues. His overall groundball percentage is decent (46%), but this year, the numbers haven’t looked as good. This year, 42.3% of his balls have guzzled grass, and at each stop from high-A to Triple-A, his groundball percentage has dropped. A number like his Triple-A groundball percentage (36.6%) would be a problem in the major leagues. Even this pink flag has its own caveat, however, as SafeCo is a safe haven for flyballers. According to StatCorner, the park has a 93 park factor for home runs by right-handers, and that number drops to 87 for lefties.

Given the lack of offense behind him, and the chance that the Mariners limit his pitches as well as his innings, Pineda does not make for a good choice for wins. On the other hand, the park should help him continue to develop, and nothing terrible leaps out from his pristine numbers. He’s a strong pickup in deeper leagues, and if he performs well in his first start against a good offense from New York, he’ll even be relevant in mixed leagues for his strikeouts and ratios alone.

After last night’s six-inning, five run beat down at the hand of the Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins righty Scott Baker holds an unimpressive 4.87 ERA. He’s also got a sub-.500 record, winning seven games and coming up short eight times. Those superficial numbers have led some fantasy folks to give Baker the boot — his ownership rate in Yahoo leagues is down to 81 percent. Take closer look at Baker’s season, and you’ll see a starter pitching well but getting dinged by a combination of poor luck and lumbering outfielders.

In 109 innings pitched, the 28-year-old has struck out 7.84 batters per nine innings and has dished out just 1.57 walks per nine frames. In terms of punch outs and free passes, Baker is actually exceeding his pre-season projections — CHONE predicted 6.98 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9, while ZiPS had 7.03 K/9 and 2.07 BB/9 for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy.

Baker’s plate discipline stats are right in line with his career averages. He’s getting swinging strikes 10.1%, while his career rate is 9.9%. Opponents are making contact against Baker 81.1% of the time. His career rate is 81.2%. Baker’s pounding the strike zone, placing 55.4% of his offerings over the plate (54.8% career average), and he’s getting a first pitch strike 65.4% of the time (60.9% career average). His outside swing percentage, relative to the league average, is about the same as usual.

Why is Baker’s ERA so high then? One factor is that he’s surrendering 1.4 home runs per nine innings pitched. Baker is an extreme fly ball pitcher, getting grounders just 35.3% this season and 33.9% during his career. He’s going to give up more homers than most. But even so, Baker has been a bit unlucky this season — 12.1% of the fly balls he has given up have left the yard, compared to a 9.6% career rate and the 11% MLB average.

Also, his BABIP sits at .335. Some will immediately point to Baker’s elevated line drive rate — 23.2% in 2010. It’s true that batted balls classified at line drives typically fall for hits 72-73% of the time, so that’s certainly a factor. But the more important question at this point may be, is that LD rate likely to persist? Line drive rate isn’t an especially stable metric, and there’s little else to suggest that Baker is suddenly getting hit much harder than usual.

Another explanation is Minnesota’s outfield defense, which can kindly be described as stationary when some combination of Delmon Young, Jason Kubel are Michael Cuddyer are manning the outfield corners. Twins fly catchers have a collective -6.8 UZR/150 this season. Young’s career UZR/150 in the outfield is -12, Kubel’s is -18.3 and Cuddyer’s is -6.5. Denard Span has a career -5.3 UZR/150 in center field, but he has rated as a plus defender in the outfield corners (+11.1 UZR/150) and he should rate batter in the middle garden over a larger sample.

As a fly ball pitcher, Baker may be disproportionately affected by sluggish outfield D. Even so, it’s near impossible to believe that the dramatic spike in his fly ball BABIP is solely the result of poor defense:

Baker’s BABIP by batted ball type

Baseball-Reference has somewhat different data for Baker — it shows his overall BABIP as .327. So, what I’m about to do here won’t match up perfectly with the BIS data on Baker’s player page. B-R shows that Twins outfielders have converted 83.4% of fly balls put in play into outs this season. Let’s say Baker had that same rate. B-R has Baker with 131 in-play fly balls this season, 28 of which have fallen for hits. If Baker had a .166 BABIP on fly balls instead of his actual .214 mark, he would have 22 hits given up on in-play fly balls. Baker has given up 107 total hits on balls put in play, out of 327. If he had 101 hits on balls put in play instead, his BABIP would be .309. Even accounting for Minnesota’s laggardly outfield leather, Baker has been unlucky.

As a fly ball pitcher backed by corner outfielders with limited range, Baker’s not in an ideal spot. Still, this guy’s better than his current surface stats suggest. Perhaps Baker won’t match the 3.72 xFIP that he currently totes, but he should be able to post a low-four’s ERA in the second half.

After a sluggish start, Jake Peavy has pitched near the level that should have been expected during his first full season on the South Side of Chicago. In the DH league and residing in a park in which more fly balls become souvenirs, Peavy has 7.82 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 107 innings. Peavy may well be done for the year, however, as he suffered a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. With Peavy shelved, the White Sox may turn to top pitching prospect Daniel Hudson. Hudson hasn’t been named the guy to take Peavy’s scheduled Sunday start yet, but the club did pull him off the Futures Game roster.

Hudson, 23, was a fifth-round draft pick in the 2008 draft. Along with 13th-rounder Dexter Carter (who was actually part of the Peavy swap with San Diego), Hudson gave the White Sox a pair of sleeper prospects from Old Dominion. At the time Hudson was selected, Baseball America noted his sturdy 6-4, 220 pound frame frame, low-90’s velocity and promising secondary stuff. They did voice some concern about his throwing motion — Hudson was described as having “a long arm stroke in the back and a whipping sidearm motion through his release point,” which BA said led to life on his fastball but also inconsistent command.

After picking apart younger players in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League during the summer of 2008 (11.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 69.2 IP), Hudson made his full-season debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2009. He didn’t stay there long, though — the right-hander zipped through Chicago’s farm system, appearing and dominating in the High-A Carolina League, Double-A Southern League and the Triple-A International League.

In 147.1 combined frames, Hudson whiffed 10.1 batters per nine innings, walked 2.1 per nine, served up 0.3 HR/9 and posted a 2.29 FIP. According to Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 2.90. Hudson’s overall line equated to a 3.60 major league FIP, per the same site. In September, Hudson completed his meteoric rise by reaching the big leagues. He pitched 18 innings for the White Sox, with a 14/9 K/BB ratio and a 5.62 xFIP.

Following that ’09 season, Hudson earned some prospect accolades. Baseball America named him the 66th-best prospect in the game, praising his 91-93 MPH heat and above-average changeup, while also mentioning that his low-80’s slider showed some promise (he also mixes in the occasional slow curve). John Sickels graded him a B+ prospect, calling Hudson a personal favorite.

With Freddy Garcia re-signing with the Pale Hose and the rest of the team’s starters remaining healthy (until now), Hudson has spent the entire season back at Triple-A Charlotte. Logging 93.1 innings, he’s got 10.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 2.90. Hudson’s work with the Knights translates to a 4.51 big league FIP, with 8.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. CHONE’s updated rest-of-season projection for Hudson is similar — a 4.60 neutralized ERA, with 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9

The draft steal has shown an impressive ability to fool hitters, and he has shown solid control to boot. What’s concerning for fantasy owners is how Hudson’s fly ball tendencies (42.1 GB% in ’09, 40.7 GB% this season) will play in U.S. Cellular Field. If he does indeed get the major league call, expect Hudson punch out batters at a healthy clip, keep the walks at a reasonable level and serve up his far share of homers.

Though he’s still just 26 years old, Fausto Carmona has played many parts during the course of his pro career. The 6-4, 230 pound righty, signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2000, once was a top prospect — his ground ball-generating sinker and impressive control (career 1.6 BB/9 in the minors) led Baseball America to name him the 76th-best prospect in the game prior to 2004. After a brief bullpen cameo with the Indians in 2006, Carmona blossomed into a front-line starter, racking up 4.2 WAR in 2007. But that success was short-lived — with those pesky midges seemingly stealing his ability to throw strikes, Carmona’s walk rate soared in 2008 and 2009. He posted just 1.3 WAR over that period, missing significant time with a left hip injury in ’08 and earning a punitive demotion to Triple-A in ’09.

In 2010, however, Carmona looks to be back on track. He’s got a 3.69 ERA in 109.2 innings, and he’ll head to Anaheim next week as Cleveland’s representative in the All-Star game. Is Fausto back? Digging a little deeper reveals a mixed bag of results — he’s clearly pitching better this season than in 2008 and 2009, but he’s not approaching that halcyon 2007 level of performance.

Back in ’07, Carmona supplemented a modest K rate (5.73 K/9) with excellent control (2.55 BB/9) and ground balls by the bucketful (64.3 GB%). The final product? A 3.88 xFIP in 215 frames. Carmona put plenty of pitches within the strike zone (51.4%, compared to the 50.3% average that season), but he still managed a league-average swinging strike rate of 8.6 percent. In 2008 and 2009, though, Carmona struggled to locate his pitches and got fewer batters to swing and miss:

In 246 combined innings in ’08 and ’09, Carmona struck out 5.01 batters per nine and issued 5.12 BB/9. His ground ball rate, while still strong, declined to 59.2%. With fewer whiffs and worm burners, as well as a walk rate that doubled compared to 2007, Carmona posted a cringe-worthy 5.05 xFIP.

This season, Carmona has improved — somewhat. His punch out rate has actually fallen again (4.68 K/9), and he’s getting swinging strikes just 6.3%. His ground ball rate (58.1%) is below that mid-sixties total from ’07 and comes in under his average over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, too (even so, Carmona’s GB% is fourth-highest among MLB starters). But most importantly, he has pared his walk rate down to 3.2 per nine innings pitched, while putting an above-average number of pitches within the strike zone (49.8%, compared to the 47.1% MLB average).

Not surprisingly, Carmona’s cut in free passes dished out is the result a sharper sinker. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Carmona threw his fastball for a strike 60.2% of the time over the 2008-2009 seasons (62-64% MLB average), with batters swinging at 42.6% of the fastballs he threw (42-45% MLB average). So far in 2010, he’s throwing his fastball for a strike 63.9%, with hitters offering at 45.3% of those pitches.

Carmona’s xFIP is 4.54, certainly serviceable but not nearly as shiny as his current 3.69 ERA. His BABIP is .274, compared to a .299 career BABIP, and his home run per fly ball rate is 6.9% (10.7% career average, right around the MLB average). For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a 4.55 FIP for Fausto. It’s likely that once Carmona is done rubbing elbows with baseball’s elite at the Midsummer Classic, he’ll give up more hits on balls in play and won’t see as many fly balls die at the warning track.

Taking on the Cincinnati Reds on the Fourth of July, Ted Lilly got lit up. The 34-year-old lefty was lashed for nine runs in 6.2 frames, serving up four home runs. But, even after that drubbing, Lilly is seemingly enjoying another quality season. After opening season on the DL while recovering from off-season surgeries on his left shoulder and left knee, Lilly has a 3.76 ERA in 93.1 innings pitched. Look a little deeper, though, and there are concerns about his waning ability to fool hitters.

Like usual, Lilly is doing a fantastic job of throwing strikes. Placing 54.6% of his pitches within the strike zone (47.2% MLB average this season), Theodore Roosevelt is getting a first pitch strike 62.4% of the time (58.6% MLB average). He’s walking just 2.12 batters per nine innings. However, Lilly isn’t inducing as many whiffs this season. His swinging strike rate, which sat around 9.5-9.6% over the past two seasons, is 7.6% in 2010 (the MLB average has ranged from 8.3-8.6% over that time frame). Lilly’s contact rate was slightly below the 81% MLB average in ’08 and ’09, but batters are connecting 84.1% of the time this season.

Considering the tame velocity on Lilly’s fastball, you might assume that hitters rarely come up empty against the pitch. But that isn’t the case, as Lilly’s “heater” has generally displayed excellent whiff rates. In 2010, the whiff rate on his fastball is still above-average, but not to the same extent as in ’08 and ’09. Lilly’s low-80’s slider, slooow curve and high-70’s change haven’t induced many whiffs in recent years, and batters are missing those pitches even less this year. He’s throwing strikes with all his offerings, but he’s not getting hitters to come up empty:

(Pitch F/X Data from TexasLeaguers.com)

Given these trends, it’s not surprising that Lilly’s falling short of his projected K rate — ZiPS had a 7.54 K/9 pre-season punch out rate and CHONE predicted 7.75 K/9, but Lilly is whiffing 6.17 batters per nine innings. His fastball is averaging 85.9 MPH this season, a tick to two ticks slower than in recent seasons. The pitch has gained some speed in recent outings, though:

Lilly’s average fastball velocity by month (Baseball Info Solutions Pitch Data)

April: 85.1 MPH
May: 85.2 MPH
June: 86.5 MPH

(July’s velocity is not yet available, but TexasLeaguers’ Pitch F/X data had him sitting at 86.7 MPH).

Lilly’s current xFIP is 4.64, his highest mark since a 2005 season cut short by shoulder and biceps injuries. His .249 BABIP is fifth-lowest among qualified MLB starters. It’s true, Lilly has a career .284 BABIP. He’s an extreme fly ball hurler (32.4 GB% this season, 34.3 GB% career), and while fly balls are far more pernicious overall, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than grounders. Lilly also gets a lot of BABIP-killing pop ups — 14.1% for his career, and an insane 21.5% this season (7-8% MLB average). But even so, it’s likely that his BABIP is closer to .300 than .250 in the second half.

Perhaps Lilly’s still rounding into form after an off-season spent rehabbing, and his recent (relative) increase in fastball velocity will lead to improved whiff rates. Hopefully that’s the case — unless Lilly starts missing more lumber, his ERA is going to rise.

Some pre-All Star break changes to a few rotation spots…

Felix Doubront | Red Sox | 0% owned

All Star Clay Buchholz hit the disabled list with a hamstring issue, convenient timing for the Red Sox since he’s only likely to miss one start because of off days and the break. Doubront made a solid but unspectacular start against the Dodgers a few weeks ago, allowing three earned runs and eight baserunners in five innings of work. The hard throwing lefty gets the suddenly surging Rays (35 runs scored in their last six games) on Tuesday, and I can’t in good conscience advise starting a rookie on the road against a powerhouse team.

Barry Enright | Diamondbacks | 0%

A personal fave, Enright took the place of Dontrelle Willis in Arizona’s rotation, then went out and threw five innings of one run ball in St. Louis. The righthander’s minor league career featured very little in the way of strikeouts until this season (8.0 K/9), though he’s always been stingy with the free pass (1.9 BB/9). He strikes me as a lesser version of teammate Ian Kennedy, basically a more hittable and more traditional physically (6-foot-3, 220 lbs.). I like him as a matchup starter in an NL-only setup, though there’s no telling how many wins you’ll get with that bullpen behind him. Enright will start at home against the Cubs and Marlins before the break.

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 61%

Back from a hamstring issue at the expense of Kenshin Kawakami (to the bullpen!), Jurrjens won’t, or at least shouldn’t be the 2.60 ERA guy he was in 2009 this year. The peripherals just didn’t line up. There was some BABIP (.273) and LOB% (79.4%) luck mixed in with the relatively low K/9 (6.36) and solid BB/9 (3.14), and xFIP had him at 4.34. I wouldn’t expect much more than a low-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way, especially after the injury. There’s value in that, but his perceived value seems to exceed his actual value. Jurrjens will pitch in Philadelphia in his last remaining start before the break.

Marc Rzepczynski | Blue Jays | 1%

Shaun Marcum is enjoying a fine first season back from Tommy John surgery (2.0 WAR), but he had to hit the disabled list with some elbow inflammation. Rzepczynski will fill in during his absence, though he could have had himself a rotation spot out of Spring Training if he didn’t break a finger trying to field a comebacker with his left (throwing) hand. Anyway, he was fantastic in 11 starts for Toronto last year (3.70 xFIP, 1.1 WAR) and strong in nine minor league starts this year, and should be good for on okay ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way. Not a fantasy star, but a viable option. Rzepcynski starts at home against the lefty heavy Twins on Wednesday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Carl Pavano
OAK – Trevor Cahill
WAS – Livan Hernandez
SEA – Erik Bedard
DET – Andrew Oliver
CIN – Travis Wood

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Kevin Slowey
DET – Armando Galarraga
MIL – David Bush
CIN – Edinson Volquez
SEA – Ryan Rowland-Smith
WAS – J.D. Martin

Pavano has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gone 4-0 in that stretch. Both his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 2009 numbers, but Pavano has seen his ERA drop from 5.10 last year to 3.30 in 2010. He’s been lucky with a .261 BABIP but he has also upped his GB% to 47.6 percent, his highest since 2005.

Cahill has a 2.24 K/BB ratio, up from 1.25 a season ago. While both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher around a 4.00 ERA, Cahill’s actual mark is 2.74. He beat both his FIP and xFIP in 2009 and may turn into the rare pitcher who can do it on a consistent basis. A 54.3 GB% certainly helps and a .232 BABIP also holds down Cahill’s overall numbers.

Hernandez continues to confound the experts, who predict him to collapse virtually every outing. One thing that Hernandez does exceptionally well is take advantage of his home ballpark. He is 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in Nationals Park. On the road Hernandez is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Padres and Giants.

Bedard is slated to come off the DL and make his 2010 season debut. He is trying to make it back from labrum surgery and has not pitched in the majors since July 25th of last year. Assuming no further setbacks, Bedard will get two home starts, but will have to square off against Zack Greinke and C.C. Sabathia.

Oliver was a second-round draft pick in 2009. He started his professional career in Double-A Erie this year and went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA. In 77.1 IP, he had 70 Ks and 25 BB. Oliver has pitched well in his two starts for the Tigers but has yet to come away with a Win. A fastball-slider pitcher, Oliver has averaged 93.5 with his heater so far but his success will rise or fall with his breaking pitch.

Wood went 13-5 between Double and Triple-A last year and was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA this year at Louisville. He made his major league debut July 1st against the Cubs and turned in a Quality Start, as he allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP but came away with a no-decision. Wood averaged 90.4 with his fastball but profiles as more of a finesse pitcher, as he also throws a cutter, change, slider and curve.