Archive for Starting Pitchers

Since the summer of 2008, righty Daniel Hudson has navigated his way from fifth-round draft pick to ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ staff (though Ian Kennedy might quibble with that designation). Granted, in a post-Dan Haren rotation that may include the likes of Joe Saunders, Zach Duke and Armando Galarraga, that’s like saying "fastest Molina brother" or "smartest Kardashian." But after the D-Backs acquired Hudson from the White Sox at last year's trade deadline, the Old Dominion product dominated.

Entering 2011, Hudson has fantasy helium — according to MockDraftCentral, he ranks 34th among starting pitchers and 130th overall in Average Draft Position (ADP), placing him alongside pitchers such as Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and Brett Anderson. How good can Hudson be? Let’s break it down.

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The first three slots in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation are set — Johnny Cueto’s locked up long-term, Bronson Arroyo will keep on strumming Fenders and tossing benders after getting his own contract extension, and Edinson Volquez looks to polish his post-Tommy John stuff in front of paying crowds once his visa situation allows him to do so. But who will fill the fourth and fifth spots for the defending NL Central champs? Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates (listed in alphabetical order), along with their 2011 projections from Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS.

Homer Bailey

Oliver: 7.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.61 ERA
PECOTA: 7.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 ERA
ZiPS: 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

Bailey, a former top 10 prospect who took some beatings as a 21 and 22 year-old breaking into the majors, made considerable progress on the mound last season. The difference between his 2009 and 2010 ERAs was minuscule — 4.53 in ’09, and 4.46 in ’10 — but his xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, improved from 4.58 to 3.91. Bailey upped his K rate from 6.83 per nine to 8.26, and he pared his free passes from 4.13 per nine to 3.3.

That whiff rate may come down some this year — his swinging strike rate last season was just average (8.4 percent), and his contact rate (81.8%) was actually a percentage point above the big league norm. Plus, Bailey does come with durability concerns. He missed nearly three months last season with shoulder inflammation, from late May to mid-August. Out of minor league options, Bailey looks to be the favorite for the fourth rotation spot. Maybe he’ll never be a phenom, but he’s capable of posting an ERA better than the league average if he can avoid further injury woes.

Aroldis Chapman

Oliver (as RP): 9.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.91 ERA
PECOTA: 10.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.36 ERA
ZiPS (split role): 10.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.00 ERA

By all accounts, Chapman is headed to the bullpen to start the season. As the above projections suggest, the Cuban’s triple-digit heat will elicit lots of late swings; hitters might just want to plaster their bats on their shoulders and hope for ball four. Chapman made 13 starts and 25 relief appearances at AAA Louisville last year, punching out 11.6 per nine while walking nearly five, and then averaged nearly 100 MPH with his fastball out of the Reds pen while throwing the fastest recorded pitch in MLB history.

The 23-year-old lefty won’t figure into the back-of-the-rotation conversation without a change of heart by management, but he’s plenty capable of pushing incumbent closer Francisco Cordero aside. Cordero’s K rate has fallen four years running, a period during which his xFIP has climbed from 2.82 to 4.53.

Mike Leake

Oliver: 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.08 ERA
PECOTA: 5.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
ZiPS: 5.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.34 ERA

The eighth overall pick in the ’09 draft out of Arizona state, Leaked leaped right to the majors and proved to be a quality, if not terribly exciting, starting option. Throwing everything but a Ephus — two-seamers, sliders, curves, cutters, changeups — Leake had 5.92 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, a 50.2% ground ball rate and a 4.31 xFIP. His rookie season did end on a dour note, as he was placed on the DL in late August with shoulder fatigue. Leake didn’t throw another pitch after that, as Cincinnati played it safe and shut him down for the rest of the year.

Leake currently appears to be the sixth man for the Reds, behind Bailey and Wood, and GM Walt Jocketty said in February that Leake could end up in the bullpen rather than going to the minors to keep stretched out if he loses out on a rotation spot. Of course, no team’s one-through-five ends up staying perfectly healthy and productive — Leake is one sore elbow or shoulder away from regular rotation turns. He’s not going to miss many bats, but Leake’s ground ball tendencies aid him in a park where warning track flys often turn into round-trippers.

Sam LeCure

Oliver: 6.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.12 ERA
PECOTA: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.86 ERA
ZiPS: 6.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.00 ERA

LeCure, a 26-year-old with a four-pitch mix (high-80s fastball, upper-70s slider, low-70s curve, and a low-80s change), faces the longest odds of any pitcher listed here. In 48 MLB innings pitched last year, divided between starting and relief, LeCure had 6.94 K/9, 4.69 BB/9 and a 4.86 xFIP. The former Longhorn has sharper control of his limited stuff than that sample suggests, but his career minor league walk rate of three per nine is more decent than Maddux-esque.

LeCure did generate more grounders last season (54% at AAA, 45.6% with the Reds). Considering that Great American Ballpark increases home run production by 20 percent for left-handed hitters and 33 percent for righties, he’ll need to retain those gains to be much more than replacement-level flotsam.

Matt Maloney

Oliver: 6.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.43 ERA
PECOTA: 6.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.26 ERA
ZiPS: 6.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

As a lefty who relies on pinpoint control to compensate for a fastball that needs a strong backwind to reach the upper-80s on the gun, Maloney’s game is the antithesis of Chapman’s pure power. That said, the former Phillies prospect has 7.9 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in well over 400 innings at the Triple-A level. Maloney has performed adequately in 61.1 MLB innings divided between starting and relief over the past two years, with about six whiffs per nine innings, 1.9 BB/9 and a 4.70 xFIP. On a lot of teams, he’d have a good shot at pulling down a rotation spot. In Cincy, however, he’s a long shot looking to secure a bullpen spot for Opening Day.

All three projection systems have Maloney coughing up ample home runs, and dingers may well be a problem for the fly ball-centric 27-year-old. According to First Inning, Maloney’s ground ball rates have ranged from 40 to 45% at AAA, and he has induced grounders about 35% of the time in the big leagues. Maloney needs his exquisite control to limit multi-run long-ball damage.

Travis Wood

Oliver: 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.87 ERA
PECOTA: 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.06 ERA
ZiPS: 7.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.64 ERA

A lithe left-hander who originally got scouts all hot under the polo shirt collar as high schooler throwing 95 MPH, Wood no longer touches that velocity but nonetheless looks like a good fantasy option poised to win the fifth starter’s gig. After posting rates of 8.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 3.23 FIP in an even 100 AAA frames, Wood got the major league call in July. While he averaged about 90 MPH with his gas, Wood’s cutter, change and curve enticed batters to expand their zones — his 32.8 outside swing percentage was well above the 29.3% MLB average. In 102.2 innings with the Reds, Wood struck out 7.54 hitters per nine innings and walked just 2.28 per nine on his way to a 3.51 ERA.

I said that Wood is a good fantasy option, but whether he’s a good value is another question. Wood’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 GB% in the majors), and his home run per fly ball rate (6.3%) figures to rise. So will his BABIP (.259 last year), though perhaps less than most given those aforementioned flyballing ways (fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders). If you draft Wood expecting an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of four, you won’t be disappointed. Get caught up in his near no-no and mid-threes ERA, and you might end up pulling the trigger while better options are still on the board.

I haven’t always felt this way, but auctions are pretty sweet. How often does someone have to grab that sleeper from you just because of the vagaries of the snake draft before you start thinking about auctions anyway? How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player? It’s an exciting process, and it really makes you put your player valuation money where your mouth is.

Adding keeper functionality to an auction league just makes even more sense. As I migrated from snake to auction in my fantasy preferences, I’ve also migrated to keeper leagues. Aren’t we trying to play at being GMs here? In a way, we must be approximating the thrill of running a team, and a keeper auction league is probably the closest you can get without hitting the sim leagues – which are cool, but I’d rather leave defense out. It’s just so tough to evaluate.

In any case, as the title indicates, my personal fantasy baseball trends have led me to ottoneu, the new fantasy game at FanGraphs. I hope you enjoy the game as much as I will. Let’s play another “Trade Tree” game, shall we? This seemed popular the first time around. It’s pretty sweet that all of these trades would show up on the respective player pages in your league, and it does a good job of illustrating how ottoneu game play goes.

For a free year (one team) of ottoneu fantasy, argue who got the most value for their Dan Haren in ottoneu one, the flagship league of the game.

Team 1: Traded $19 Haren during the 2009 season for $7 Joba Chamberlain, $5 Dexter Fowler and $5 Justin Smoak

Team 2: Traded $21 Haren before the 2010 season with $19 Adam Jones for $5 Shin-Soo Choo

Team 3: Traded $23 Haren before the 2011 season for $12 Clay Buchholz, $6 Martin Prado and $4 Jason Kipnis

*Before you knock any team too harshly, remember to appreciate the context in which these trades took place. I know you don’t have team data, but look at the year at least. Also, this is for 4×4 ottoneu (OBP, SLG, HR, R / ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9)

The Rangers made a pretty bold move last year when they moved long-time reliever and sometimes closer C.J. Wilson into the rotation, and he rewarded them with 4.4 WAR season and four pretty good playoff starts. If you’re reading this site, then you’re well aware that even an average big league starter is more valuable than a great reliever if he’s giving you 180 IP, but teams have been slow to admit this. The Tigers are going to try to replicate the Rangers’ and Wilson’s success in 2011 by turning one of their own lefty relievers into a starter, that being Phil Coke.

There are similarities (besides the obvious: being left-handed, late-20’s at the time of the switch, yadda yadda yadda) and differences between the two, so let’s explore them before figuring out if Coke is rosterable in a standard league.

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Derek Holland fell off of prospect lists in 2009 by pitching 138+ innings, but he’s still unproven and holds the excitement of unfulfilled potential. So far, the excuse has been the crowded house that has been the Rangers rotation, but this year, the Cliff-Lee-less front five could use a boost, especially from an exciting lefty with a power fastball and upside to boot. Could this be the year he finally busts out?

First, the rotation looks crowded again, but once you get past the top three, there are many question marks. Scott Feldman hasn’t put up a league-average FIP since his 41 1/3 relief innings in 2006, and Eric Hurley has 24 2/3 innings of poor major league work and much less potential on his resume. Brandon Webb is new in town, but given his injury situation, it’s not a stretch to say that a combination of Webb and Feldman might get the Rangers one more starter in total.

Which, of course, leaves a spot for Holland. Last year he was already above league average (4.02 FIP), so he’ll be a real-life boon to their rotation. His 8.48 K/9 is already impressive, and should he repeat the statistics he showed last year, he will be interesting in deeper leagues. How much can he do beyond?

Coming up through the minor league system, there was talk of Holland having a plus-plus fastball, but so far his linear weights on the pitch have been poor and his velocity has been closer to 92 than the mid-90s he showed. One thing that Holland could conceivably improve is his groundball rate. These things might even be related. Look at his heat maps for the fastball.

It looks like Holland tends to pitch up in the zone, which can lead to more fly balls. Fly balls in Texas are no good. It looks like this trend has held steady for Holland so far, which could mean that there’s something about his fastball that works better up in the zone, or that he’s entrenched. If not, he could add more groundballs with lower fastballs pretty easily.

Two other things bode well for Holland. So far, his walk rate in the majors (3.27) and last year (3.77) have only been okay. Not terrible, but okay. In the minor leagues, Holland routinely put up sub-three walk rates. If he can bring that walk rate back down, he could approach a three-to-one K/BB ratio, which is excellent.

The other piece of good news is that his changeup made progress last year, at least when judged by linear weights. It went from a strong negative to a scratch pitch. Given that he has a good fastball and slider, developing that changeup is tantamount to his success. He’s still throwing it 10% of the time, and if it’s a scratch-or-better pitch, then he’s got a strong mix – and he’s a lefty. That’s a combination that could lead to some fantasy success, so consider Holland late in your drafts when you are looking for upside for your bench in mixed leagues.

Yesterday we took a look at five hitters heading into their contract years, and today we’ll cover the guys on the mound. Remember, this is completely subjective on my part. I’m not really sure there would be another way to go about doing this.

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There’s a possibility that Tommy Hanson will be both over- and under-rated this year. There’s strong reasoning on both sides, but perhaps a recent tidbit of news can tip the scales in one direction.

Tommy Hanson is over-rated.
Though he’s now shown strong ERAs over the last two years, his xFIP has remained above four. He only gets ground balls at a league-average rate (41.2% career, 40% is about average), and yet somehow he has kept his home run rate below one per nine (.65 career HR/9).

This isn’t sustainable given the state of research on the subject, and is most likely an artifact of his home park. Except that he’s given up more home runs at home (.71 HR/9) than on the road (.59 HR/9). Still, he doesn’t show Matt Cain’s insane ability to rack up infield flies, and his deflated home run rate is almost all due to a tiny HR/FB rate (6.2% career). That number is closer to 10% across baseball, and he’s likely to give up more home runs in the future.

And, with a strikeout rate that is mostly meh (7.87 K/9), those home runs will hurt.

Tommy Hanson is underrated.
It’s funny that you should mention that strikeout rate, actually. Recent work at Beyond the Box Score showed that his strikeout rates fell late last year (5.17 and 5.84 K/9 in August and September, respectively, down from above one per inning across the rest of the year) – and then linked the fall in strikeout rates to his declining velocity. Though Mr. Apostoleris has some excellent graphs of his own, we can see that the FanGraphs’ pitch f/x charts show that Hanson has had this problem both years.

So, like many young pitchers before him, Hanson has had some issues with stamina in his short career to date. RotoWorld (quoting the Atlanta Journal and Constitution) provides us with a nugget of hope in this regard:

Tommy Hanson-S-Braves Feb. 1 – 9:33 am et
Tommy Hanson gained 10 pounds of muscle this offseason.
Hanson worked out at the Boras Sports Training Institute all winter with a team of trainers. “I felt like I did everything possible to get ready for the season,” he said Monday. “That gives me maybe a mental edge.” The 24-year-old finished with a cool 3.33 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 34 starts last season for the Braves. He struck out 173 batters in 202 2/3 innings.
Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

It’s bordering on a “Best Shape of His Life” update, but this one has concrete information. He gained 10 pounds of muscle, and perhaps that will help him retain velocity deep into the season. More velocity means more whiffs, which will allow him to mitigate the damage any added home runs might put on his ledger.

Conclusion.
Both the fans and Bil James project Hanson to improve his strikeout rate (8.51 K/9 for James, 8.42 for the fans) while putting up the worst home run rate of his career (.74 and .75 HR/9 respectively). Because his control is solid (2.78 BB/9 career), he will surely be a good pitcher next year.

In order for Hanson to be truly elite, though, he’ll have to show a strikeout rate closer to his minor league rate (10.7 K/9 carer MiLB), or at least over one per inning. Call me an optimist, but beefing up in order to maintain his early-season strikeout rates late into the summer seems like a good way to start. Call him “well-rated but with upside” if you need a moniker.

We’ve seen the move enough over the last two years that the math is clear: Struggling young fly-ball pitcher from a tough American League division + trade to Arizona = Fantasy relevance! So will that math magic work for Armando Galarraga?

Not so fast. The first difference is immediately obvious upon looking at the player cards of the respective trio. Galarraga has a career 5.7 strikeout rate with a peak of 6.35 in 2008 – Dan Hudson showed a 6.75 K/9 in Chicago and was consistently over one per inning in the minor league leagues, and Ian Kennedy had a 6.49 K/9 in New York and also had a strikeout rate over one per inning in the minors.

But, say you believe in Galarraga’s peak strikeout rate despite its precipitous drop (to 4.61 K/9 last year), there’s still the matter of his ground-ball rate. All of the three are fly-ballers (not fly ballers), but here Galarraga (40.4% ground balls career) comes out (incredibly) ahead of the pack when compared to Hudson (34.2% ground balls career) and Kennedy (36.9% ground balls career). So… he strikes out a few less but gets a few more grounders, maybe he should be included in the trio as interesting late-round picks in upcoming drafts?

Thta’s still a negative, Ghostrider. It’s a matter of age and proximity to their minor league records. When Hudson made the leap to Arizona, he’d only accrued 34 1/3 major-league innings and 23 years on this earth – Kennedy 59 2/3 and 25 respectively. Galarraga is 28 years old and has pitched 475 1/3 major league innings. He’s no lapsed prospect that hasn’t gotten the chance to perform – he’s a journeyman just trying to hang on.

The bounce back won’t look like Hudson’s or Kennedy’s for Galarraga, who has pitched to a 5.17 FIP over his career, but could it look okay anyway? Take his career strikeout rate (5.7), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.62) and ground-ball rate (40.4%) and look for comparative qualified starters in the National League last year, and it’s not pretty. Being as good as Randy Wolf (5.93 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, 39.4% GB) and his 4.17 ERA (4.85 FIP) would be a success story for Galarraga. Other close comps are Dave Bush (5.52 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 39.5% GB, 4.54 ERA, 5.13 FIP) and Rodrigo Lopez (5.22 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 37.6% GB, 5.00 ERA, 5.21 FIP) so he’s not in happy territory.

Galarraga may take the fifth starter role in Arizona next year, and he may pitch better than his terrible 2010 season (imPerfect game notwithstanding), and he may even have some superficial similarities to other AL starters that have made the same move recently – all of these things may be true, but he’s still probably not a good pick in your next draft.

Before we get to today’s results, I thought I’d ask you if you’d please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

Matt Garza (xADP, You)
My vote: 8, 10
Average: 9.7, 11.7
Median: 10, 12
Std Dev: 2.9, 4.3

While we may not have perfectly agreed on where Garza is going to be drafted, or even when we would be willing to take him, we did agree on one thing: Garza is going to be overvalued and taken about two rounds before we would be willing to pull the trigger. I think the perception of his move out of the AL East and into the National League will help propel his ADP, but I could very well be wrong. I always find it interesting to look at these results, because – at least in this case – it can make you realize that most of us aren’t expecting to have Garza on our rosters in 2011, which is a strange thought to have echoed throughout the sample.

Jeremy Hellickson (xADP, You)
My vote: 15, 13
Average: 13.3, 12.3
Median: 13, 12
Std Dev: 4.2, 4.1

Trying to pinpoint a prospect’s numbers are tough enough, let along trying to accurately predict where they will be drafted. However, you guys had a pretty good idea when it came to Hellickson, even if I thought he’d be taken a little later. To be fair, my thinking may be biased based on what I’ve seen in “expert” mock drafts, and I’m going to put my faith in you guys. While I would be willing to take Hellickson in the 13th round, my projections don’t indicate that he’ll be worth that pick. But, when you can get a young stud like Hellickson who has the chance to be great, it’s worth the risk. I have a feeling this may be the sentiment for a good number of owners, as it seems some weigh pure upside far more than others.

Please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

A bunch of recent minor signings and news items probably don’t deserve full posts but might be relevant in deeper leagues. Let’s clear them out!

Jose Arredondo is healthy
Arredondo is finally good to go after a two-year battle with his elbow. You might wonder who this dude is, but remember his excellent 2008 with the Angels (3.10 FIP), when he was good enough to close for most teams. And then remember how bad Francisco Cordero is (4.53 xFIP last year), and you’ll know that Arredondo may just vulture a save or two this year. Sure, Aroldis Chapman is starting in the pen, too, and is in line in front of Arredondo, but he’s also got the ability to start. File this name away, at the very worst he may be useful in deeper leagues that use holds.

Shane Victorino was called out by Charlie Manuel
While Manuel may not be right to call out his player publicly, the fact that he mentioned that Victorino was swinging for the fences too often was interesting. Victorino had the worst BABIP of his career last year, and the highest fly-ball rate. These things are related, since the BABIP on fly balls is poor. Give Victorino a few home runs less and push his batting average a few ticks higher if he’s listening to his manager. Either way, he’s a decent bounce-back pick, and always shows a little power and a good amount of speed. Under-rated if you ask me.

Chien-Ming Wang to be ready for spring training
He hasn’t been useful for anything other than Wang jokes since about 2007 (or 2008 if you want to be generous), but Wang says his shoulder feels good and that he’d like to compete for a role in the rotation in spring training. Carlos Silva had some similar statistics and came to the weaker league and performed well – this Wang may not be done Chunging yet. Don’t forget about him in your deeper leagues, even if his lack of strikeouts makes his upside a little less palatable.