Petco Park’s Latest Reclamation Project

The San Diego Padres have a homefield advantage unlike any other. Petco Park is an extreme pitcher’s park, suppressing offense to just 80.6% of a neutral environment over the last three seasons according to ESPN’s park factors. Add in the great weather and beautiful city, and you’ve got a great destination for free agent starters looking to rebuild their value. This offseason’s reclamation product is local boy Aaron Harang, once on of fantasy’s top starters.

It’s a popular refrain that Dusty Baker broke Harang during a 2008 relief appearance that coincidentally took place in San Diego. Just three days after throwing 103 pitches in a loss to the Padres, Baker used Harang for four innings (63 pitches) in relief during an extra inning game against those same Padres. Four days later he started against the Pirates and threw another 73 pitches. That’s 239 pitches in the span of seven days. We know that correlation does not equal causation, but it’s tough to ignore that Harang had a ~3.56 FIP (3.85 ERA) in 520.2 IP leading up to the relief appearance and has just a ~4.60 FIP (5.00 ERA) in 379.2 IP since. Immediately after the relief appearance, he allowed 79 runs (53 earned) in 51.2 IP across his next ten starts. Opponents tagged him for a ~.443 wOBA during that time. Just brutal.

The 2010 season was the worst full season of Harang’s career at just 0.9 WAR. He missed all of July and essentially all of August with a back strain, pitching to a 4.39 FIP before the injury. He made just three starts and two relief appearances after returning, so that doesn’t tell us much of anything. Harang’s overall season performance featured a 4.60 FIP (5.32 ERA) with career full season worsts in K/9 (6.61), BB/9 (3.06), and HR/9 (1.29). The Reds bought out his $12.75M option for $2M, and off Harang went to the Padres for one year at a guaranteed $4M. Surely his plan is to rebuild his stock, then go back out on the market next season in search of a multiyear deal.

The difference between Petco and the Great American Ballpark is drastic. StatCorner has the GAB’s homerun park factors at 120/133 (LHB/RHB) compared to 59/95 for Petco Park. Harang is a pretty extreme air ball pitcher at 64.2% fly balls plus line drives over the last two seasons, so the ballpark by itself should cut down on the number of homers he allows, perhaps even considerably. Factor in the lack of Jonny Gomes‘ defense (-38.4 career UZR) in left (at least part time), and that should help turn a few more batted balls into outs as well. An outfield alignment of Ryan Ludwick–Cameron Maybin–Will Venable/Aaron Cunningham/Chris Denorfia should be one of the game’s better defensive units.

While the promise of fewer homers is exciting, Harang also needs to get back to his strikeout ways. He posted an 8.38 K/9 from 2006-2007 but is down to just 7.47 K/9 since then (remember, just 6.61 in 2010). Unsurprisingly, his swinging strike rate has dropped almost three percent from his peak, and it’s declined every season since 2006, bottoming out at 8.1% in 2010. Harang’s been using his fastball and slider less and less over the last three years, mixing in a few more curveballs instead. The problem is that his fastball is his most effective pitch (0.13 wFB/C career) and his slider his second most effective (0.10 wSL/C career) while his curve is basically his least effective (-0.12 wCB/C career), not counting his scarcely used changeup. He did have elbow trouble in 2008, so perhaps that’s why he’s cut back on the sliders and gone more with the curve. Getting back to just 7.50 K/9 in 2011 would be a great step in the right direction.

The expected drop in ERA (and also WHIP) are enough to make Harang rosterable in 2011, but if he regains some of that strikeout magic (far from a given), his days as a strong fantasy option will return. He’s a great buy low candidate in mixed leagues and I love him in NL-only outfits, but if you’re still skeptical you could stash him on the bench for a few starts in April until we have a better idea of what we’re in for. If he’s sitting on the waiver wire or in free agency, but make sure you act quickly.

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