Archive for Starting Pitchers

On Thursday, I posted an update on three American League rookie pitchers, including Seattle phenom Michael Pineda. One of my criticisms of Pineda was his 56% fly ball rate at the time, which should lead to lots of home runs, despite the fact that he had yet to give up even one long ball. One of the commenters noted Pineda’s fantastic average fastball velocity, currently sitting at 96.1 MPH, and opined that it will be more difficult for hitters to homer off of him, leading to a sustainable depressed HR/FB ratio compared to the league average. Not satisfied with just taking his word for it, I decided to test this hypothesis.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.

A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.

Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.

Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.

Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.

Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

When I first started playing fantasy baseball around 15 years ago and for many years after that, it was ingrained in my head that I should never draft rookie pitchers or add them to my roster (12 team mixed leagues, obviously in Only leagues, this would be difficult to pull off). I followed this for a while, always avoiding rookies and ignoring the hype. But as new statistical methods of evaluating pitchers became more mainstream and I learned how to use these methods, I realized that rookie pitchers should not automatically be discarded and expected to deliver minimal fantasy value. So I now have no problem drafting and rostering rookie pitchers and evaluate each pitcher on his own, forgetting about whether the rookie label is slapped on or not. With that wordy introduction out of the way, let’s take a look at how some of the top rookie pitchers have fared so far.

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In today’s edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we look at three starters who aren’t as good as they seem to be.

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Today’s Deep League Waiver provides fantasy owners with a potential third base replacement for Ian Stewart and my first dive into the pitching free agent pool.

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Four or five years ago, these two guys were high-end fantasy players that you couldn’t dream of grabbing off waivers. Injuries and Father Time have a way of changing things, so here they are now, useful pieces instead of roster stalwarts…

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The first step is admitting you have a problem. I admit it: I cannot rid myself of Edinson Volquez, let alone reserve him for even a week. Ever since picking him up post-draft, but still during spring training, before his breakout 2008 campaign, I have been guilty of suffering from Volquez Fandom Syndrome. Please, someone help me.

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Here is the latest update to Week 3 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update:

J. Sanchez, C. Wilson, W. Rodriguez, Rogers, Blanton, Westbrook, Carrasco, J. Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Carmona, Lewis

Of the new pitchers let’s look at Wandy Rodriguez. He has an ownership rate of 91 percent in CBS Sports leagues. However, he is off to a rough start, with an 0-2 record and a 7.31 ERA in three games. While his K rate is down, so too, is his BB rate. The end result is a 3.67 K/BB ratio, an outstanding mark. Rodriguez has allowed just one home run in 16 IP, so he is not being hurt by the gopher ball.

It all comes down to his BABIP which is at a head-shaking .417, the second-worst mark currently in the majors, trailing just Matt Garza. Rodriguez has been a solid pitcher in the past and it would be an easy assumption to make to put him in your lineup and wait for his BABIP to normalize.

However, you might want to sit him for another week.

Minute Maid Park has always been a hitter-friendly venue, but Rodriguez has actually fared much better historically at home than he has on the road. In his career he has a .585 winning percentage and a 3.48 ERA in Houston compared to a .381 winning percentage and a 5.12 ERA in road parks. In his lone road start this season, Rodriguez allowed 9 H and 7 ER in 4 IP.

In Week 3, Rodriguez has road starts in New York and Milwaukee. Rodriguez has but one start in Citi Field, but came out on the losing end with 8 H and 3 ER in 6 IP. He has 11 career starts in Miller Park and is 3-6 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.641 WHIP in 60.1 IP.

Last week’s Sunday night look was Jeff Francis. He had 13.1 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks and 2 QS.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 3.

Brandon Beachy – With 17 Ks in 17.1 IP, you could make a case for starting Beachy on strikeouts alone. Unfortunately, the other categories come into play. Beachy has yet to break into the win column and his ERA and WHIP took it on the chin Thursday night against the Marlins. This week Beachy has two tough road matchups against Kuroda and Lincecum and all signs point to leaving him on the bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – The good news is that Matsuzaka’s xFIP is half of what his ERA is. The bad news is he has a 6.56 xFIP. This week he gets to face the slugging Blue Jays and then a cross country road trip to take on the Angels. It may be worthwhile to hang onto him for a few more starts to see if he can put it back together, but by all means let him figure things out while he sits on your bench.

Carl Pavano – After getting rocked in his first start, Pavano has put up back-to-back strong outings, allowing just 1 ER and 8 H over 16 IP. He surrendered three gopher balls in his first game but has kept the ball in the park since then. Pavano’s peripherals are worse than his ERA, due mainly to that first outing. A 17-game winner last year, make sure he is in your lineup this week

Jason Vargas – Last year Vargas shocked everyone by winning nine games and putting up a sub-4.00 ERA. Seven of his nine wins came at home, where his ERA was a full two runs lower than his road mark. Vargas got knocked around in his first home start this year, but last time out in Safeco he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP. He has two home starts this week and as he’s likely on the waiver wire in your league, he makes an excellent streaming option.

Carlos Zambrano – Another pitcher with two home starts is Zambrano. But unlike Vargas, Zambrano has not shown an extreme preference for pitching in his home park. In fact, Zambrano has a much higher road winning percentage in his career (.676 vs .544). But the reason to start Zambrano this week is his opponents. He faces off against the Padres and Dodgers, two of the weaker offensive teams in the National League. While Zambrano has not pitched particularly well this year, the Cubs offense has provided him with lots of support, as he has two wins despite a 6.11 ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 3 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Marcum, Price, T. Hudson, Danks, B. Anderson, Romero, E. Jackson, Liriano, Scherzer, Kuroda, E. Santana, Shields, Lilly, Lewis, T. Wood, Pavano, Lackey, Carmona, Niese, Stauffer, Correia, Jimenez, Tillman, Chen, Fister, Lannan, Arrieta, LeCure, Galarraga, Moseley, Davies, Palmer.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.