NL Starting Pitchers: Mat Latos, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor
In this edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we go with players returning from injury and those who are directly affected by it.
Archive for Starting Pitchers
Waiver Wire: April 13th
Time to take a look and see who might be available in your leagues and could be worth adding to your squad. It’s still real early, but there might be a few choice names out there that can help, whether it’s short term or long term. Here’s a few to think about… Read the rest of this entry »
Waiver Wire: April 11th
Two starters and an outfielder as you contemplate whether or not Willie Bloomquist is actually worth a roster spot…
Early Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes
April 11, 2011
It may be a bit early to analyze velocity changes as pitchers continue to build up arm strength and we are still working with tiny sample sizes, but as you could tell by now, I am a sucker for comparisons and ranking lists. We all know that velocity has a significant impact on a pitcher’s effectiveness and all else equal, the higher the velocity, the better the results. When a pitcher suddenly experiences an increase or decrease in his average fastball velocity, it could portend a change in performance, for better or for worse. Since fantasy owners sometimes jump on pitchers quickly after just one strong outing, it is important to identify the velocity changers early on before it becomes obvious in their results.
Week 2 Two-Start Pitchers Update
Here is the latest update to Week 2 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update
F. Hernandez, Price, Cahill, Burnett, Duensing, Pineda, Richard, Matsuzaka, Francis, Tillman, Penny, Litsch, Talbot.
Pitcher no longer scheduled for two starts: Stauffer
Of the new pitchers, Jeff Francis is an interesting one to examine. After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from shoulder surgery, Francis came back to pitch 104.1 innings for the Rockies last year. A free agent following the 2010 season, the former 17-game winner had to sign an incentive-heavy, $1 year/$2 million deal with the Royals.
While winless in his first two starts, Francis has pitched into the seventh inning both games and has a 1.98 ERA along with a solid 3.28 xFIP. He’s getting more swings out of the zone (31.3 O-Swing%) and batters are making less contact than normal. It makes him an interesting candidate for his two starts this week and he potentially has some favorable pitching matchups.
In his first game this week, Francis squares off against Brian Duensing and the Twins. In his first start, Duensing’s velocity was down 2 mph from his average last year. Plus Minnesota is next to last in the American League with a 2.62 runs per game average.
Francis’ second start comes against rookie sensation Michael Pineda. Dave Cameron reviewed Pineda’s first start and concluded that Pineda has some work to do with his off-speed offerings to lefty batters, who managed two doubles and a triple in his game against the Rangers. The Royals can stack a lineup full of lefties to face Pineda, including the red-hot Alex Gordon, along with Chris Getz, Melky Cabrera, the Kila monster and Wilson Betemit.
While those names might not strike fear into many hearts and minds, that group has led the Royals to a 6-3 start to the season. Available on the waver wire in most leagues, Francis is a potential pickup to stream for his two starts this week.
SwStk% and K/9
April 9, 2011
The SwStk% metric is one of my favorites on FanGraphs. We would expect the statistic to be a good proxy for a pitcher’s raw stuff, as a swinging strike is the ultimate pitch result. Therefore, it should correlate highly with strikeout rate. And intuitively, it does. From 2001-2010 using a sample size of 59 pitchers, SwStk% had a 0.87 correlation with K/9. It is not higher because luck still plays a role, and K/9 includes called strikes which obviously SwStk% does not. So now that we know SwStk% matches up with K/9 quite well, I like to rank pitchers by each to determine who might have some hidden strikeout rate upside or downside.
Two-Start Pitchers: Week 2
Now that fantasy leagues are back on a 7-day week schedule, it’s time to take our first look at upcoming two-start pitchers. Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 2.
Mark Buehrle – After opening the season with two poor road outings, Buehrle has home starts this week against the A’s and Angels. From 2008-10, the veteran Buehrle has been 26-14 at home compared to 15-21 on the road. Earlier in his career, Buehrle was all over the map as far as performance. However, he has become a reliable hurler the past few years. While he may not strike out more batters for you than a middle reliever this week, he should post respectable ERA and WHIP numbers and has a chance to post two Wins. Make sure he is active in your lineup.
Kevin Correia – After posting a 5.40 ERA in 2010 while playing half his games in Petco Park, few had high hopes for Correia this year in Pittsburgh. But he starts the year off with Wins in his first two games and a nifty 1.38 ERA, putting him on the radar of fantasy players everywhere. But don’t be fooled. Correia has a 4.86 xFIP, much closer to his 4.45 career rate in the category. With games against the Brewers and Reds, look for Correia’s ERA to balloon and do not add or start him if you can help it.
Ryan Dempster – When you drafted Dempster you imagined him as a guy you put in the lineup each week and did not worry about his roster spot. And generally that’s true, although you might want to investigate alternatives this week. Dempster has road starts in Colorado and in Houston, two parks which are hitter-friendly and in which he has struggled recently. Lifetime Dempster is 3-7 in Minute Maid Park and he is 1-3 with an 11.35 ERA in Coors Field. Combined with his rough start to open the season, it looks like a good time to give him a week off if you can.
Kyle McClellan – After 202 appearances in the majors as a reliever, McClellan made his first start this year, as he moved into the rotation to take over for the injured Adam Wainwright. McClellan showed strong peripherals in his time in the bullpen and carried that over to his first start, as he allowed six hits in six innings while walking one and fanning seven. The matchups are not overly favorable to McClellan this week, with road starts in Arizona and Los Angeles. But both of those clubs have struggled some offensively out of the gate and are in the bottom half of the league in runs per game. He’s a good waiver pickup if he is available in your league and if he is already on your roster you should consider giving him a start this week.
Esmil Rogers – During his brief time in the majors, Rogers has put up some ugly ERAs but has gotten strikeouts and ground balls, two things which bode well for his future performance. He continued with that combination in his first outing of 2011, with 7 Ks and 11 ground balls in 7.1 IP. Rogers was hurt last year in the majors due to his .385 BABIP, a figure that should heavily regresses in 2011. Rogers has decent control and his high ground ball rates help keep his gopher ball totals low. Combined with the strikeouts that is a pretty nice package for a guy likely on the waiver wire. Go out and grab him and do not be afraid to start him this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Verlander, Kershaw, Carpenter, Haren, Hanson, Billingsley, Marcum, Volquez, Myers, Hellickson, Stauffer, Niese, Braden, Pelfrey, Latos, Blanton, Hammel, L. Hernandez, Volstad, Enright, Figueroa.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
AL SP Musings: Harrison, Tillman and McCarthy
April 7, 2011
With only a week of baseball in the books, it is time for small sample size analysis! Here are some thoughts on various AL starting pitchers.
NL Starting Pitchers: April 6th
Notes on three starters in the senior circuit to end your Wednesday, including a Mike Minor update!
