The Starting Pitcher episode (Part 1) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Pitch Level Value (PLV)

Strategy Section

• Role changes
• New pitches
• Pitch mix changes
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• What can we learn about pitchers from spring training?
• Valuation of foreign pitchers
  • Kodai Senga

ATC Undervalued Players

• Starting Pitchers
  • Luis Severino
  • George Kirby
  • Jeffrey Springs
  • Drew Rasmussen
  • Chris Bassitt
  • Pablo Lopez
  • Alex Cobb
  • Alex Wood
  • Steven Matz

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2/20/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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SP Preview Pt. 3

This episode covers 28 SPs ranging SP45-75 with Frankie Montas and Aaron Ashby left off due to injury and Trevor Bauer left off as he’s currently without a team.

• Rays Breakouts: Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs
• Dodger Dogs: Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin
• Angelic Southpaws: Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers
• Finesse Gems: Chris Bassitt, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Jameson Taillon, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brady Singer

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Alright, alright – the official start of fantasy baseball has officially officialized, with the NFL kumite finally in our rearview mirror. We’ve now come to our final positional rankings, after first covering catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfielders, and relievers. It’s time for starting pitchers – let’s have some fun. Read the rest of this entry »

2/17/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

SP Preview Pt. 2

• The Southpaw Studs: Carlos Rodón, Julio Urías, Max Fried
• The Untrusted: Shane Bieber
• The Breakout Ace?: Luis Castillo
• The Next Strider: Cristian Javier
• The Upcoming Aces: Zac Gallen, Alek Manoah
• The Padres: Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish
• The Workhorse: Framber Valdez
• The Skinny Legend: Triston McKenzie

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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Last week I detailed how I am preparing for an upcoming Ottoneu re-draft and how I set my hitter targets. In this post, I finish the job and detail my approach to targeting pitchers. I should note that this is an iterative process. It is necessary to go back and forth to figure out a good balance between hitting and pitching and so much of that is dictated by who you have on the free-agent list. Regardless, I’m a planner and need to set my targets ahead of time. I need to see what happens if Plan A fails and what Plan B really looks like. Sadly, I was never the kid in school who could just roll out of bed, head to the exam in their pajamas, and get an A without studying.

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2/13/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

SP Preview Pt. 1

• The Unicorn: Shohei Ohtani
• The Undisputed: Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole
• The Iron Horse: Sandy Alcantara

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Last week I detailed my late-round starting pitcher recipe, “Thinning the Herd”. I wrote about the first six pitchers on this list and this week I’ll continue with the bottom six. As a reminder, here’s my ingredients list:

• A SwStr% in 2022 of at least 11%. (2022 MLB SP average – 10.7%)
• A K/9 projection (steamer) of eight or better. (2022 MLB SP average – 8.18)
• Positive pVals (Pitch Info) on at least two pitches in 2022.
• An ADP greater than 100.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed six pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched that most underperformed their Statcast xERA marks. Let’s now flip over to the overperformers. As you could guess, there are far more overperformers than underperformers. That’s because a pitcher is less likely to be allowed to record 150 innings if he significantly underperforms his xERA. At some point, results matter and teams don’t have the luxury of patience to wait for their results to match their underlying Statcast metrics. So pitchers that overperform are allowed to throw that many innings, even if their underlying metrics suggest impending doom. Until that impending doom actually occurs, they will keep getting the ball.

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