The Weird and the Wonderful — Starting Pitchers Through May 1, 2023

Yesterday, I shared our first set of weird and wonderful metrics for starting pitchers, digging into SwStk% and Hard%. Today, let’s continue the fun with some additional metrics.

We’ll begin with the pitchers who have converted a high rate of balls in play into outs.

Gee, Shohei Ohtani atop another leaderboard. What can this superhuman not do?! Ohtani has generated a better than league average LD%, a high FB%, and a superb IFFB%, all of which should help reduce hits on balls in play. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean a .150 BABIP is fully deserved, but he’s done his best! The double digit walk rate is a bit concerning, but everything else is in line for the Babe Ruth of our time.

As a fly ball pitcher, Domingo Germán has always posted a better than league average BABIP, as he sports a .266 career mark. Obviously, he’s never been this good, and his batted ball distribution doesn’t exactly back it up. Interestingly, while his SIERA of 3.62 sits well below his 4.46 ERA, thanks to implied poor fortune due to a 20.6% HR/FB rate and 63.1% LOB%, his xERA is actually well above his actual ERA at 5.23, suggesting he’s been super lucky to post the BABIP he has, and likely the high HR/FB rate is deserved. It’s always bizarre to see a pitcher with a low BABIP, but high HR/FB rate, or vice versa. Still, I’m more optimistic now than I was at the beginning of the season, due to the return of his strikeouts and whiff ability.

Tyler Wells is an extreme fly ball pitcher who has kept his walks to a minimum. A 3.18 xERA suggests a lot of that low BABIP is deserved, but it doesn’t mean his hit suppression skills will necessarily continue. He’s only recorded about a season’s worth of innings, so it’s still too small a sample to get a good grip on his true talent BABIP. With a low strikeout rate, I would worry about the occasional homer-fest against him.

I mentioned Dane Dunning yesterday given his low SwStk%, and one of the reasons his ERA sits below 2.00 is because of the .197 BABIP. Sure, take a stab in an AL-Only league if you’re desperate for a starter, but I’m not touching him in anything shallower.

Oddly, Dustin May is the second straight low BABIP guy who also sports a low SwStk%. I don’t know what’s going on here, but I certainly wouldn’t be looking to trade for him given his current skills.

This is the club pitchers don’t want to be part of — when the hits just keep falling, membership is activated.

Need pitching? Look no further than Nick Lodolo as your trade target. His underlying skills are almost identical to last year, but his BABIP and HR/FB, too, have both skyrocketed. Statcast thinks some of those increases are deserved, as his 4.60 xERA is still disappointing, and well above his SIERA. The problem here is a lack of pop-ups induced, increasing his expected BABIP. Amazingly, he has never posted a BABIP below the .322 mark he posted as a rookie last year throughout his entire professional career. So it seems pretty clear that he struggles keeping balls in play from becoming hits. But his BABIP is absurd right now, so as weak as he may be relative to most, he should still be better than this.

That 2020 season gets flukier and flukier as Zach Plesac’s strikeout rate hasn’t even reached 19% in any other season. But this is about BABIP, and when you allow so many balls in play to begin with, you can’t afford a high mark. Interestingly, he’s never posted a mark above last year’s .288, so a .410 mark is very uncharacteristic. His batted ball profile has changed as he’s suddenly become a ground ball pitcher, which should increase BABIP, but his IFFB% sits at a career best! You don’t see that combo very often. His xERA sits at 5.37, which is still terrible, but it’s more in line with last year’s, suggesting the high BABIP is some bad luck. That said, you don’t want him on your team with that weak strikeout rate.

Luis Cessa was mentioned in yesterday’s low SwStk% article, so he not only isn’t fooling hitters, but has allowed a BABIP over .400. No wonder his ERA stands above 9.00! His xERA is 9.45, essentially matching his actual mark, which is crazy! I’ve never seen an xERA that high, especially over 20 innings. How he still has a rotation spot is beyond me.

These pitchers have yet to allow a homer.

Roansy Contreras has yet to translate his minor league strikeout rate into the Majors, so he’s lucky to have not allowed a homer yet given the number of fly balls he has allowed. He’s looking like a nice candidate to try selling high, as someone in your league is likely to buy the narrative of the sleeper who’s actually breaking out (he’s not…yet, at least).

Lance McCullers Jr.’s injury opened a rotation spot for Hunter Brown, and he’s run with it. Sure, he hasn’t allowed a homer yet, and that’s going to change, but I really like his skill set. I would have been all over him if I knew he would remain in the rotation all year.

It’s been a nice skills surge for Sonny Gray, whose SwStk% has spiked to a career high, driving a rebound in strikeout rate. Obviously, he’s going to allow a homer soon and his ERA will converge toward his SIERA/xERA, but he’s looking good.

Even a normal HR/FB rate wouldn’t hamper Max Fried’s results too badly given his low FB% and better than average strikeout rate. Though hoping for a higher strikeout rate is understandable, he’s got all the skills you want to see in a top-tier pitcher.

Gerrit Cole has posted double digit HR/FB rates for six straight years, and nothing under 13.5% over the last four years, so this is quite the surprise. Concerningly, his SwStk% has slipped to its lowest since 2017, while his strikeout rate sits below 30% for the first time as well. Of course, both still remain strong, but not quite vintage Cole level. Some HR/FB rate luck for a change would really help.

My gosh, Dane Dunning is really monopolizing these lists!

These pitchers might need to get their necks checked for all the straining they have been doing watching their fly balls leave the park.

A league worst HR/FB rate, to go along with a .357 BABIP, got David Peterson demoted back to the minors, despite strong other skills. With a strong strikeout rate, improved walk rate, and GB% over 50%, I really like Peterson’s skill set, but he hasn’t posted a sub-.300 BABIP or a HR/FB rate better than 15% since his 2020 debut. How much of that is bad luck and how much is a lack of skill is anyone’s question given the sample of just 252.2 innings is still rather small.

It’s hard to believe that Ross Stripling has posted a crazy 42.9% HR/FB rate at home, when he pitches in one of the more pitcher friendly home parks for homers in baseball. He posted his first single digit HR/FB rate last year, but has been well worse than average every season prior since 2017. He owns a career mark well above the league average as well, so home run struggles aren’t exactly new. That said, his strikeout and wlak rates are normal, as is his SwStk%. Plus, his fastball velocity is up slightly to his highest since 2017! While I’m rarely excited to rely on a pitcher with a 21% strikeout rate, if you need pitching in an NL-Only league, I think his performance rebounds and will deliver the value expected of him.

Taijuan Walker has not consistently struggled in keeping his fly balls in the yard, so it’s weird to see such an inflated HR/FB rate here. He has also posted a nice batted ball profile, light on line drives, and heavy on grounders and pop-ups, while his BABIP is better than league average. So what’s going on with the homers?! I have no idea. I wasn’t exactly a fan heading into the season, but he should rebound…as long as his walk rate gets back under control.

Kodai Senga’s MLB debut has been quite mixed. On the one hand, he’s struck out 27.4% of opposing batters, thanks to a 30.7% CSW%, plus he has posted a sterling batted ball profile, similar to Walker’s, but slightly better. On the downside, his control has been weak, as he’s walked 15.4% of batters, while a high percentage of the few fly balls he has allowed have left the yard. It seems like his slider is a pitch he might want to ditch, as it’s allowed a 50% HR/FB rate and sports a microscopic 4% SwStk%. I like the foundation here, so if it’s just a matter of adjusting his pitch mix, I’m optimistic. But will the team or Senga come to the realization and actually make the change?